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It shouldn't cost close to that much to get Betts... and if it does, no thanks... Price is a lot scary too. Twins take on all the risk in that deal. But, it would cost a ton more than Baddoo and Blankenhorn to get Gray... I spent a lot of time earlier today thinking about what it might take for the Twins to get Betts for a season. I think they can do it for Rosario and two of their top pitching prospects, maybe even just one of them, plus a solid hitting prospect...

No flyers? If the Astros didn't take any "flyers" their team wouldn't have Robinson Chirnos, Wade Miley, Will Harris or Colin McHugh. The Nationals wouldn't have Matt Adams, Brian Dozier, Howie Kendrick or Kurt Suzuki. You're not going to build a team without some low cost veterans. Every team does it, not just teams with Terry Ryan as a GM.

I can no longer say I want the Twins to emulate the Astros. Bush league maneuver to use cameras in order to steal signs.

It's very hard to estimate the return necessary in a trade, so by definition you're taking a leap of faith by estimating that. I appreciate that. It's not easy to do as a writer. That said, I agree - that seems like a lot for Boston and not enough for Colorado. A couple of random observations: 1) Balazovic seems like the "prospect everyone is willing to trade" this offseason. I wonder why that is. Perhaps he's just in that sweet spot of "highly rated" and "not around long enough for me to be kind of attached to him yet." 2) I'd give up Sano in a trade for someone - but I don't know exactly who right now. I'm just so excited to see what he can be next year. Probably irrationally so. 3) Do we now if Jon Gray is on the market? I have to imagine not, given the surgery thing, but maybe that makes him that much more attainable.

Sano and Rosario for one year of Betts...no. Add Balazovic and Gordon for Price and his huge contract...h...no. As I said yesterday, Balazovic is one of four prospects who are off the table. The others are Graterol, Lewis and Kirilloff. As for the bullpen, it is 6/8 set with Rogers, May, Duffey, Littell, Stashak and the rotating starters from Rochester on the 7am flight filling the 8th long reliever spot. Will Smith would be a great addition as both the second lefty and another dominant late inning arm. Add another solid vet and the bullpen is AOK! Agree that getting Odorizzi in the fold is a must. Hopefully, we will know by tomorrow that is a done deal reducing the FO job to finding two quality starters, assuming the final spot is a battle between a vet signed to a minor league contract and the four rookies from last year. Agree that once Odorizzi accepts the QO, the FO works out a 3 year extension for probably a bit more than $36million. Or maybe he wants to stay and has another solid offer and we hear tomorrow that he resigned for 3 or 4 years.

I think the price is not right for Betts and Price, way to steep for a one year rental..

Poor Max Kepler... He was discussed 3 years in a row to break out. Now that he played better he's a regression candidate

Betts is a great addition to any team, but since OF isn't an area of dire need for the Twins, I don't see moving heaven and earth to get him. If any acquiring team doesn't have a good shot at convincing Betts to sign a long term deal foregoing free agency, I can't see the asking price being quite that high. Moreover, taking on David Price at the same time is doing the Red Sox a great favor, in the full scheme of things, so that should bring down the price further. I want to remove both Sano and Balazovic from this package, and substitute lesser prospects. I expect the Red Sox could find a better trade partner, though. If the Twins really had no better use for their considerable payroll headroom in 2020, instead of Price they could offer to take on shorter-term dead money from the Red Sox, such as Pedroia's remaining contract (I'm unsure what Rusney Castillo's remaining obligations are). But I think there are better uses, so I don't really see how to make an attractive offer. Coming from the other direction, if I were doing an Offseason Blueprint for the Red Sox, Betts would be a guy I'd focus on as a cornerstone, unless he has made it clear he wants out of Boston when he's a free agent and would consider almost any other team. Yes, they want to get under the luxury tax threshold, and Betts will be above $30M when it's his turn after this year - but he's the kind of guy you consider it a privilege to pay the money to, and you work your budget around him when you're at the top echelon as the Red Sox are. I really don't get it, when I read the rumors, even though I think those rumors are well placed. All in all, Red Sox needs and Twins needs don't seem like a great fit to me. But I freely confess I don't really get the Red Sox's motivations.

"If we're being honest with ourselves, the Minnesota Twins probably aren't going to go out and sign Gerrit Cole or Stephen Strasburg this winter." This is CORRECT....and also the explanation for why we absolutely CANNOT trade Balazovic!

6th in Rookie of the year voting but #1 in our hearts.

A rookie manager who walked into a clubhouse that didn't know him, beset by injuries to players, a patch-work pitching staff yet 101 wins. Yeah, he done good.

Wonderful News. Hey Rocco, Go for back to back!!!

If it’s David Attenborough talking about Tree Frogs that’ll hook me every time.

Congrats, Rocco!

Good for him!

Makes me that much more happy that Washington won the WS this year.

Here's a video breakdown of how they conveyed the pitch to hitters. WARNING: There's swearing in the video.

I said it last year and will say it again, Kepler is just scratching the surface. Don't know when, but I believe he will be in the hunt for the 'triple crown' at some time in the future. Assuming he has a reasonably long career, I expect Kepler to receive consideration for the Hall of Fame 20 or so years from now. And Arraez will be the player he is. That's a young kid who knows the strike zone as well as anyone in the game. That will keep his OBP very high. Said last year that I expect him to consistently put up years with an OBP near or over .400 with batting averages in the low/mid to mid .300's. Assuming MLB does something about the baseball, Garver and Polanco both may hit less home runs in 2020. Sano on the other hand will hit more as he should have a full season. Most of Sano's home runs are way beyond the fence, thus, hitting them 10 or 20 feet shorter isn't going to cause the frequency of his home runs to decrease a lot. I don't see a huge regression from any of these players. Expect Garver will continue to play about half the time, although maybe more like 100+ games next year. Considering the expected change in the ball, would expect his numbers to dip a bit.

3. Sign RHP Jake Odorizzi for three years, $36 million If this is Odorizzi market price, he better grab the qualifying offer. $18m for one year, if he does anything he'll get more than another $18m over the next 2 years.

I think of all the people in this group to be least likely to regress, I feel it is probably Polanco. His hit tool has only gotten better and he was was solid when he started. I also think it could be crazy to assume Garver will end up at around 20 home runs. He squares up balls has a good approach. To me the most likely would be Arraez. .334 over a full season? He's got the intangibles, but give him 600 at bats, hard to see him sustain in a full season. Kepler would be next.

I wish there were a way to stop the bleed, but I guess it’s praise to the Twins FO for having so many of their personnel coveted by others.

In January 2019, Thad Levine answered a question at Twins Fest: "The best time to acquire players of that magnitude is when your window to win is wide open, not when you got your fingers underneath the window and you're trying to jam the window open. I want to do it when we're projected to win the Central and we're ready to put our foot on someone's throat". After a fantastic 2019 season ending in a disappointing fashion, Derek Falvey addressed the media and is quoted as saying "We're going to target impact pitching". Well, time to put up or shut up, Falvine. I put together what I believe should be a realistic outcome for the 2020 offseason based on the above statements from the front office. 1. Leave the historic 2019 offense alone In this plan, I didn't change anything with the offense that set a MLB record for home runs. This includes picking up CJ Cron's option. As long as the team is healthy, they should have no problem scoring runs. Maybe the biggest move was the one not made - trading Eddie Rosario. I don't think the Twins (nor the fans) are going to like what the return for Rosario would be. Keeping the unofficial captain of this team intact will keep the offense rolling. Hopefully a healthy ankle will help him move around the outfield better improving on his down defensive metrics. I am hopeful Eddie might even take a step forward in 2020. 2. Beef up the bullpen The one silver lining in the Sam Dyson injury is that the Twins were forced to use other arms in high leverage situations down the stretch. They discovered Tyler Duffey and Zack Littell could be solid pieces in late innings. Adding to an already promising mix with Will Harris (2/$16M contract) and Drew Pomeranz (2/$7mil contract) will give Rocco plenty of options in 2020. Will Harris quitely had a 2019 season with a 1.50 ERA and 9.30 K/9 in 60 innings. Oh, and he has appeared in 23 postseason games - 12 of which came this year during the Astros World Series run. His age (35 on opening day) could be one cause for concern. A two year deal feels right, here. Drew Pomeranz is an interesting one. An absolute disaster in 2018 and most of 2019 makes this signing questionable. However, 26 innings of lights out baseball in Milwaukee make it seem like there may be more potential here. He has increased his velocity after a permanent move to the bullpen, has always been lights out vs lefties, and now will be working with Wes Johnon. Sign. Me. Up. Pair him with Taylor Rogers and we could be looking at a bullpen that is a nightmare for opposing managers playing matchups. Pomeranz would come at a discount, of course. 3. Sign a veteran backup catcher Martin Maldonado makes some sense here as a backup. Very poor offensively but a solid backstop. I would be open to other options here, such as Jason Castro on a one year deal, but am thinking he would want a chance to start somewhere else. I know Anaheim needs a catcher 4. Go find an "ace" starter and keep Jake Odorizzi OK, it's put up time, Falvine. Sign Zack Wheeler. When you said "impact pitching" - this is what it means. Not Kevin Correia or Mike Pelfrey which is some people's opinion of impact (*cough* Terry Ryan). Go get us a guy that is equal to, or, with the potential to be better than Jose Berrios. This free agent market is flush with solid top of the rotation targets that do not grow on trees, for the Minnesota farm system at least. I think Wheeler makes a lot of sense. A 5/$125M contract would be by far the biggest free agent contract in Twins history but, the time is now. There is no excuse. Get. It. Done. Zack Wheeler 2018-2019: Innings: 377 ERA: 3.65 K/9: 8.9 Yeah, I'd take that in this rotation. Other acceptable "ace" type pitchers - Gerrit Cole, Madison Bumgarner, Stephen Strasburg, or Hyun-jin Ryu Also, depending on the outcome of Odorizzi and his qualifying offer, the Twins have to find a way to bring him back. If he rejects, they have the upper hand compared to other teams. A three year deal sounds about right. Plus, Jake likes it here. His kids are Vikings fans now. I pray for them. 5. Bring in a vet presence to stablize rotation MLB.com reported that Cole Hamels is open to a one-year deal on a win now club. Hey, Cole! Over here! Come on out to Minnesota. Bringing in a veteran like Cole with playoff experience (and a connection to Thad Levine, might I add) will stabalize the rotation and give a solid 4 starters to run train on the AL Central in the regular season, plus be ready for any October opposing matchup. Hamels put up soild numbers as a Cub. He was lights out in the first half of 2019 but an injury derailed the mid point of his season, and it never really seemed like he recovered. A 2020 rotation of: 1. Wheeler 2. Berrios 3. Odorizzi 4. Hamels 5. Dobnak/Graterol Sounds like a winning recipe to me. A recipe that might not add up to 101 regular season wins again, but hey, it can't do worse in the playoffs! *This was not a dare, @BaseballGods* Total payroll: $141.5 million A Twins franchise record but very realistic. Anything lower than this, with the free agent pitching market as stacked as it is and a desperate need to fill the rotation, is an absolute insult to the fanbase. The improbable 2019 Twins magic season captured fan interest in Minnesota again. We got a taste of playoff baseball at Target Field for the first time in 9 years and we want more. The window is wide open. It's time for the Pohlad's and the front office to honor their promises and give us a team to dream on in 2020. Foot, meet throat. Time to stomp on the competition in the AL central and get back to the playoffs.

I won't argue with Rocco getting the nod but it's always a disappointment to see the managers of teams like the A's and Rays get so little love for what they've done while spending so little. While ownership and the front office dictate spending and roster spaces respectively, the manager is the guy on the field who has to make it work and Cash and Melvin did a phenomenal job with not a lot of resources. While it would have irritated the **** out of me to see Boone get the award, I would have tipped my cap to Cash or Melvin had they won.

eh, the team will probably regress to 97 wins, and make it out of the first round of the playoffs. So much for sustainable success!

Robo umps takes care of one of those problems.. and I'm in favor of that.. The other is players playing vs. someone helping them... pretty big difference in my opinion.

Congrats! And I agree with the second place vote for sure. All those injuries....

crazy as hell. years ago, in a competitive 28-and-over league, my team had a first-base coach with a knack for seeing the signs that opposing catchers put down. on days that it worked (some catchers held their legs closer together than others), he'd say our hitter's first name for fastball ("come on, johnny") and last name for offspeed ("you're due, johnson"). it often worked like a charm, gave us a tremendous advantage and really let you relax in the batter's box. no opponent ever caught on and, in my opinion, it was well within baseball's unwritten rules. but i believe that using a camera (or even binoculars) crosses a line. and in houston's case, it sounds like the yankees caught on -- and houston denied and changed the signal. which seems like VERY dirty pool. One way to stop it might be to always give three sets of signs (like when a runner is on second base) and only the pitcher and defense know which signal is the real one.

shocker

I really do like the blending of new school tech with old school garbage can banging communication. It's a truly great compromise to appease the purists who only like sign stealing via dodgy "fan" in the outfield with binoculars and a walkie-talkie. But I hope the MLB takes away all their draft picks and caps their international free agent budget at $50. I don't even care if the Astros are guilty, I hope they do it just because.

Arraez is going nowhere. Out of 241 hitters with 350+ PA's, he was 30th lowest in soft contact rate, #1 in opposite field rate, #2 in bb/k, #1 in contact rate, lowest in swinging strike rate, #3 in zone contact rate, and #1 in out of zone contact rate. And all of this in his first ever taste of the bigs, in a season in which he started at AA, and turned 22 after the season started. Barring something shocking happening, Luis will be an elite hitter in the league for at least the next decade. Guys who walk more than they strike out, have elite contact ability, and generally make medium+ contact while being among the handful of youngest players in the league don't regress. They progress.

Alonso was pretty good, but so was Soroka who got the other 1st place vote, and frankly so was Tatis Jr. who finished 3rd: bWAR / fWAR Alonso: 5.0 / 4.8 Soroka: 5.6 / 4.0 Tatis Jr.: 4.2 / 3.6 (in only 84 games)

We thought the same thing about Anibal Sanchez when the Twins brought him in. Not every guy is going to have a comeback like Sanchez did. Doesn't hurt to bring in a few lottery tickets and hope.

Again, I'm not "standing my ground" on local TV ratings. Forget I brought up local ratings, if you want. ALL TV ratings are in decline (except the Super Bowl, I guess?). Entertainment consumption is changing so much every day, the Nielsens are irrelevant. What are the new indicators that networks and advertisers look at? Social media engagement? Online ad reinforcement? I'm not exactly sure, but I am sure they are looking at those indicators and they're not too alarmed, judging by their actions. This came up in another thread recently, but you *can't* compare it other sports, at least not in everything. It's a really different game, in structure and season. And while that hinders it on some fronts -- championship ratings, superstar recognition -- it benefits it on others: daily results to follow, ballparks as gathering spaces and not just TV stages, local ratings, summer, etc. That's not to say baseball should be complacent, of course, but I don't really think they are, relative to the other major sports -- it's just different. If we want to continue this discussion, I'd ask: what's football doing, above baseball, that's not just inherently structural (i.e. Super Bowl parties), to better capture the young folks and ensure its future? Basketball? Hockey? I'm sure we'll continue to see tweaks here and there -- ebb and flow of ticket/concession deals, pace-of-play adjustments, juiced-vs-dead-ball, etc. -- and we've all got our favorites among them. But that's mostly just working around the margins, just like the other sports will continue to do. If the economic and entertainment landscape shifts enough to pose serious problems for major league baseball, it's going to post serious problems for the other major pro sports too.

I don't think it'll overly hurt the game too much. The game is insanely popular and has huge revenues. The owners need to share it with the players. Baseball's biggest problem is that it's becoming regionalized. Fans don't care as much about other teams/rivalries as they used to. That's a bigger problem.

I've got to go with Garver. It was just such a crazy good breakthrough. Plus, he'll face more right-handed pitching, and probably wear down a bit with more games as a catcher. I'd probably expect some regression from all of the above, which also raises the question: is there one guy of the five ho you think will actually be better this year? My pick for that would be Sano. Arraez might be second, just because he's still so young.

This is a fascinating topic - I see the projections and find it interesting, but the question I have is where regression is usually found - is it BA, OPS, Power or some other stat. It would seem to me that plate discipline is like speed - it is less likely to regress? Secondly, if MLB removes the rabbit ball do we consider a lesser HR total to be regression?

I will absolutely be surprised if Cole signs for 6 years or less, unless it's a 6yrs/$240M contract. The past two years these were the top pitching FA contracts: 2018 - Yu Darvish 6yrs/$126M 2019 - Patrick Corbin 6 yrs/$140M Neither of those pitchers is Gerritt Cole. With Boras as his agent, I would be surprised if anything under 7yrs/$224 even gets you a conversation. He is going to set the record. Guys like him just don't make it to FA very often. I also believe Strasburg will do better than both Darvish and Corbin. My guess is 6yrs/$150-180M. He is opting out 4yrs/$100M left on his contract. I doubt he does so if he and his agent (is it Boras?) don't think he can at least get two more years at the same AAV.

Ok, Ok, last one... I believe Arraez will NOT have a large regression. Plate discipline, intelligence and lack of holes in a swing go a long way toward combating regression..... 4 out of 5 arm-chair-scout/manager/GM/owners agree!

Dedicated bullpen games would not be a set regular occurrence, but rather a convenient option when needed. You can use them to fill in the gaps while Pineda is suspended, or to give starters extra rest during a long stretch with no off-days, or to handle the bulk of a 3-IP start from someone like Graterol (whose pitch counts I believe should be tightly managed, especially early on). Might even make sense to run an opener ahead of Graterol.

Dan Shaughnessy in Sunday's Globe was busy informing Red Sox fans that Mookie Betts is overrated. He's basically a good journalist (with some detractors) but, considering Dan's longtime ties to the team, I interpret this as meaning the decision is made and Betts is as good as gone.

I think the fact that our coaches and coordinators have been moving up in their roles when they leave the Twins organization shows that Falvey knows what he's doing. I expect him to continue to hire good people.

If only it was as easy as walking into Pitchers R Us and picking what you want. Free agency is more akin to Black Friday at Walmart, with a real possibility of getting nothing but trampled.

He should take it, and yes, he'll be traded at the deadline.

My guess is (providing he stays sharp). He won’t finish the year in SF if he takes the QO.

I watch every Red Wings game. It was revealed to me that the Twins called 'every shot' this year. Apparently Skinner had very little input...but you can be sure this is not what the public will hear. I found Skinner to be a very sterile manager. Didn't get the least bit involved with the fans and we didn't see much of him anywhere else. He has a good pedigree but he wasn't the best fit in Rochester..with the caveat that perhaps he had very little control of anything. Cliburn also a very accomplished coach...who was a failure this year. Our pitching staff was a nightmare. Guys were carrying ERA's of over 6 to 10 deep into the season. It wasn't until the very end when dobnak, Smeltzer and Stashak came up from AA, that we got some decent innings. So letting him go is probably justified. The hitting coach...I have no opinion on. The Wings were a hitting machine this season. A lot of k;s...but also a lot of clutch hits. Had our pitching been even middle of the pack, we would have won our division. The pitchers cost us many games...emphasis on many. The one that really sticks in our minds was the 20-18 loss to Lehigh early on. There were no words for that mess. As far as analytics go....personally (and this is just my old man opinion), there are far too many..and they are killing the game part of the game. Its a game...not rocket science...per se. It has gone way overboard. Does the average fan see a HR and immediately go....ooooh what was the launch angle and exit velocity? How many fans know about WAR..with all the little initials in front? It will be interesting to see who they hire going forward. Will they stay within the organization or look outside? A minor league baseball team is quite different than a major league one...in the way it presents to the community.Many major league fans don't understand this. We have a strong history; we value winning; we also understand our role as a farm team. Its a very tender balance...when it all works. While Minnesota Twins have pretty much zero footprint in our community as far as a team they root for...and much of this is because the media is so in love with all things Yankee...they have been a good parent and have provided us with decent talent. While we haven't won anything during the Twins Era..we remain hopeful. I would love to see a manager who has some personality; and a real desire to win a Governor's Cup here....AND one who gets to push a few buttons and make decisions. If that isn't the case...thats a huge MINUS against the Twins here. Guess we'll have to see. Last thing...someone mentioned defense. It was only so-so in 2019. Could be better but not horrible.

Best non playoff sporting event I have ever attended. What did you think of the atmosphere as a casual fan? To me outdoor sports (Twins baseball and Gopher football) are the games to be at in person. Cannot do indoor football or baseball even with our chilly springs and falls.

Agreed on the solid win part. Cowboys aren't a great team, and Dak is overrated. Need some young guys to step up in the secondary. Shouldn't need to burn a first round pick every year to have a competent secondary.

FYI