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I’m seeing a trend with the front office. They definitely like grabbing AAAA / post-hype guys near their age prime. Robbie Grossman, Jake Cave, Tyler Austin, this guy. Doesn’t seem like a bad strategy.

The timing is just not right for this right now. A couple seasons ago, after the 102 L team, was the proper time. Right now 3 of the division teams are very weak and Cleveland is worsening. The Twins have opportunity to win the Division and about $70 million to spend to do so. That said, I do not disagree with trading Kepler, Odorizzi, and Gibson, along with prospects like Gordon, Gonsalves etc to net (in combination with FA signings) a younger top of the rotation arm that will slot ahead of Berrios, a closer, a left hand set up man, and a couple of power bats that can play 1B/OF/DH, and maybe a second baseman for a season keeping the seat warm for Arraez (who is hitting close to .400 in Venezuela right now btw) Unlike many, I still have not given up on Sano (esp) and Buxton. Injuries happen and that's what happened in 2018 to both.

Man, what got into this guy in the past year? Always a decent OBP guy, but avg. jump really spiked everything in 2018. That's a Kirilloff level OPS at AA/AAA (much higher IsoD than Alex). Hoping for lightning in a bottle?

Hey Vanimal, I think your bang on the buck for Jones and McCutchen would be limited. Guys on the wrong side of 30, used to commanding salaries of 14-18 million per, and in steady statistical decline. Jones was only 0.2 WAR last season. Rosario, a healthy reinvigorated BB, and around the corner Max is my wish list. Reed falls in after Cave, maybe alongside Wade in the pecking order. Depth is good.

Here I was totally invested in Josh Field...

Big spikes in OBP and SLG this year were driven almost entirely by his batting average, which jumped up to .342 from .262 prior career mark. BB rate was essentially static and ISO Power was up a bit but not enormously. So I'm a little skeptical as to the sustainability of his breakout but this still seems like a very solid pickup, especially with that Jake Cave context in mind.

vs LHP Reed hit .409/.474/.561 in AAA and .400/.531/.520 in AA last season. Cave had a.642 OPS vs LHP and .844 OPS vs RHP last season. I think that between the two of them, you might have a nice outfielder. Also good to see a righty throwing OF as well (Grossman throws with his left.)

Looks to me like the Brewers pushed this guy pretty fast. Had a real nice year at Appleton in the Mid-West League when he was 20 with several solid seasons since. Played this year at 25 after breaking in with the Brewers at the age of 22. Expect they had to get rid of one of the excess outfielders to open spots before this move...releasing either Fields or Granite. Now expect both will be gone and they come to spring training with 6 outfielders, Rosario, Buxton, Kepler, Cave, Grossman and Reed...subject to any trades over the winter. Have no problem with that group, a group that still has the potential to be as good as any outfield in the league.

I was alive and have vivid memories of 1987. I remember the Cards in 2006 and the Giants and the Royals. Any team that makes the playoffs can win it and have. In not just baseball but Hockey and Football as well. If we keep trying to win the game on paper first... we might as well give up now.

I'm fine with this if it's AAA depth. Please go get a real RH OF who can challenge Kepler for the starting job. Knowing the Twins, this will be the move; players like Adam Jones and McCutchen won't be considered.

If I'm not mistaken the team was .500 after May 1. We need to move some pieces around, but contending in 2019 is more than likely. Talk of rebuilding again makes no sense to me, nor does pointing toward 2020 and beyond. We have players to trade, a top 5 farm system, and as much money available as we have every had. There's nothing to wait for. Let's not forget, our last off season was the busiest ever and we followed that up with our busiest ever trade deadline.

I honestly do not think that the team as it is currently constructed is that far away.* They lost 15 via walkoff, so I think shoring up the bullpen could go a long way in getting even closer.** I'd start with Joe Kelly, Andrew Miller on the cheap, and Familia/Herrera.*** I'd also shoot for Pearce as a placeholder at 1st, and LeMahieu/Jed Lowrie to plug in at 2nd. *This is entirely dependent on Buxton and Sano coming back as the 2017 version of themselves, not the 2018. **I don't know what is giving me this rosy outlook. I should probably get my head checked. ***This is video game wishing/spending ****Is it March 28th yet?

Take a look at the American League -- not just the Central -- and ask yourself if the Twins could realistically build a World Series contender for 2019. Is the next real competitive window now, or sometime in the future? I’m of the mind that there’s no place worse to be than in the middle of the road. I also believe the foundation of a World Series team is in this Twins organization right now, but to realize that potential the front office and developmental departments are going to have to play their cards just right.The way I see it, the Twins have two options: 1) Try and go for it again in 2019 and build around the current roster, or 2) work to set things up better for 2020 and beyond. Sure, there are some moves that would accomplish both of those things, but I don’t envision the Twins signing a Bryce Harper or Manny Machado. Instead, I believe the best way to realize that eventual World Series potential is to continue to stockpile depth for 2020 and beyond while at the same time creating more opportunities for the young players who either debuted in 2018 or were in the high minors showing signs that they were close. I can already hear the groans as I’m typing this. I understand why a lot of Twins fans won’t take kindly to this blueprint. When the rebuilding will ever stop? I’m more curious if it ever truly started in the first place. The most frustrating thing about the Twins under Derek Falvey so far has been all the half measures taken. The first offseason, the team’s biggest need was addressed in the signing of a catcher, but there were no other efforts to upgrade the club. Then there was the buy/sell move at the trade deadline later that season, one of the biggest examples of indecisiveness I can ever recall by any front office. Last winter (and even into spring), there was another honest effort to upgrade the team, but primarily in the short term. Given that was the case, it was all too easy to tear down the roster at the deadline. Even how they’ve treated the manager situation has been very half-hearted up to this point. Falvey had no choice but to accept Paul Molitor as manager, but the three-year deal he signed after the 2017 season appeared to have been a commitment to stability in that spot. We all know how that turned out. I’m not saying I disagreed with all those moves, but taking a look at the big picture, you’re certainly left with an image of a leadership group that’s done a very poor job at committing to anything. Flexibility can be a valuable attribute, but at some point this front office is going to need to pick a lane and stay in it. The next big wave of Twins talent is topped by Alex Kirilloff, Royce Lewis and Brusdar Graterol. It’s conceivable all three could be September callups this coming season, but it is more reasonable to expect all three arrive in 2020. But those are just the headliners. There will be plenty of other prospects who will blossom between now and then. There will be a ton of seeds all continuing to germinate in the high minors next season. Not all of them are going to maturate, but It seems likely the foundation of the next great Twins team will come from that crop of players. As we’ve seen with the current wave of homegrown Twins, there will be some who surprise and some who experience more growing pains than we expect. But where does that leave the current team? The great news is several of the players on the team right now will still be under team control long enough for there to be some overlap with the next wave. Eddie Rosario and Miguel Sano will be around through 2021. Jose Berrios, Jorge Polanco, Max Kepler, Byron Buxton and Taylor Rogers will be around through 2022. Before we get going, this blueprint is in some ways a companion piece to the article I wrote for the Offseason Handbook. You may understand where I’m coming from a little better if you read that piece. OK, let’s get into my moves. Brace yourself, this might hurt. Love me tender. Everybody gets tendered a contract! I'm going to be both removing some outfield depth and some veteran leadership, so Robbie Grossman still makes plenty of sense on a one-year deal projected to be around $4 million. With Ehire Adrianza, the Twins are so shallow in the infield right now that I think he’s worth hanging on to for the projected $2 million. Free agency? No thank you. I’m going thrift shopping, and not for the Lance Lynn/Logan Morrison types. We’re talking bottom of the barrel. There have been some real valuable pieces acquired over the past several offseasons among the players who were non-tendered or became minor league free agents. The Twins saw both sides on the coin in terms of minor league free agents last year. They lost Dereck Rodriguez to the Giants, but added Willians Astudillo. You’re really mining for diamonds in the rough in this universe of players, but when you hit it’s an incredible value. You get multiple years of team control on a player who’s going to be affordable. You’re probably not going to find stars among the guys in this market (though it does happen), but a multi-year role player or bullpen piece would be a really savvy pickup. We don't know who will be non-tendered yet and I haven't scoured the list of minor league free agents to be, so I don't have specific names, but this is definitely an area in which the Twins should be aggressive. Trade away Max Kepler, Kyle Gibson and Jake Odorizzi. Here’s the knockout blow. This would hurt. Gibson was a rare bright spot from the 2018 season and one of the most likable guys on the team. That level of attachment isn’t there with Odorizzi, but he had a very nice season and turning over two-thirds of the established rotation would be very tough. On the other hand, Gibson, Odorizzi and Michael Pineda (more on him in a minute) are all set to become free agents after this upcoming season. Dealing away Kepler has the kind of disaster potential that could get somebody fired. It could end up being Aaron Hicks all over again. So why deal him? Well there’s already an argument to be made that Jake Cave deserves regular playing time over Kepler in 2019, but this has as much to do with making room for Alex Kirilloff than anything. It seems highly likely Kepler will be passed up one way or another. Why Max? Eddie Rosario is already what I think we all believe Kepler could be at his peak and trading Byron Buxton has even more disaster potential, mainly because his value is so low right now. Cave showed promise, but his track record is too short to garner any real trade value at this point. Trading Kepler has the best balance of potential risk vs. potential reward among the current crop of outfielders. The Twins have invested more than 1,600 plate appearances in Kepler and have seen very little progress at the plate. Being a strong and versatile defensive outfielder who is affordable and has upside, Kepler still figures to have plenty of trade value despite his lack of progress to this point. Make sure you grab a copy of the Twins Daily Offseason Handbook, which features an excellent article on Kepler written by Aaron Gleeman. The primary reason for listing these guys as trade bait is because they’re valuable. This isn’t a knock against them, if anything it’s quite the opposite. I think they could be flipped for additional pieces that help usher in a glory run in Twins Territory. So what would I be looking to acquire in these deals? Primarily infielders and high-velocity pitchers. The closer to the majors the better. The Twins don't really have a second baseman right now and I'm not sure anybody believes that Miguel Sano is going to stay at third base long term. On the pitching need, velocity isn’t everything but it sure helps. Plenty of pitchers are effective in the low 90s, but if you watched the postseason you know the Twins are seriously lacking in high-velocity options. Throughout the entire year, only a grand total of four pitches were thrown 98.5 mph or harder by the Twins staff, three of which came from guys who are no longer in the organization (two from Pressly and one each from Fernando Rodney). In the five World Series games there was a grand total of 97 pitches thrown at least 98.5 mph. Alright, let’s get into specifics. It’s nearly impossible for me to sit here and try come up with actual trades that make sense. The trade market is a mysterious beast. I did my best. My general theory was to take what I think the Twins could get, then lower that expectation a bit. Max Kepler to the Angels for Jahmai Jones, Keynan Middleton and Jake Jewell A consensus top 100 prospect last offseason, Jones hit .239/.337/.380 (.717) between High A and Double A. He was primarily a center fielder prior to being converted to second base last season. He still has some things to iron out at the keystone, but I love the fact that he has some flexibility. Jones doesn’t have a single tool that projects to be below average. He’s currently turning heads in the Arizona Fall League. Middleton, a right-handed reliever, has the ability to sit 96 mph and topped out at 99 for the Angels last year. He has a 3.43 ERA, 9.4 K/9 and has even racked up nine saves in 76 major league innings over the past two seasons. He's a guy that could finish off games for years to come. The catch? He had Tommy John surgery in May. Another right-handed reliever, Jewell is also coming off an injury. He suffered a fractured fibula while covering home plate, but should be recovered sometime in December. He made his MLB debut for the Angels this year and topped out at 97 mph. He hasn’t posted big strikeout rates in the minors despite the velo, but Jewell gets a ton of ground balls with his hard sinker. Every year you have a Mike Trout in your organization is a year you need to be going for it, so the Angels have that incentive to improve. Shohei Ohtani had Tommy John surgery, but for now they’re expecting him to be available to DH next season. It’ll be interesting to see how that goes. The Angels do have Jo Adell, one of the top outfield prospects in baseball, but Kepler is a guy they can bank on to at the very least deliver similar production to what he’s given the Twins the past three seasons. There’s a lot of value in that to a team like the Angels who have question marks. Kyle Gibson to Milwaukee for Lucas Erceg Erceg, a left-handed hitting third baseman, is coming off a disappointing 2018 season in which he had a .688 OPS for the Brewers Double-A affiliate. He dealt with back issues in spring training, then was hit in the head by a pitch in April. Not sure if those things caused a slow start but they certainly couldn’t have had a positive impact. He played much better over his final 57 games of the season, posting a .761 OPS while slugging eight of his 13 homers on the season. In more than 500 plate appearances, Erceg had just 82 strikeouts, and there are no questions about his defense or especially his arm strength at third base. I think he’s also going to hit for power. Milwaukee had an incredible run this past season, but they need starting pitching help. Erceg is among their better prospects, but even with Mike Moustakas hitting free agency they still have Travis Shaw to play third base. Again, Gibby's only under contract for one more season. Jake Odorizzi to Oakland for Eli White White posted an .838 OPS in Double A last year while playing second base, shortstop, third base and even a little bit of center field. He has an advanced approach at the plate, but his tools aren't loud. Seems like the type of guy who, if he develops, could be a nice utility player. He's putting together a strong run in the AFL right now. Oakland’s already pretty stacked on the infield, but they could really use some more starting pitching. Billy Bean has indicated that payroll room won’t be an issue for the A’s in 2019, so they should have no trouble finding room for Odorizzi’s salary. This would be the fourth time Odorizzi would be traded. Trade Jason Castro, Michael Pineda and Addison Reed at the deadline. Unlike the names I mentioned above, this trio needs to build up value before teams are going to give up anything of significance to acquire them. All three need to prove that they’re healthy. Castro needs to show his knee is fully repaired and ready for the rigors of catching. Pineda’s arm should be recovered, but he’s now coming off knee surgery. Reed ended last season on the active roster, but his velocity dip is a huge red flag. All those question marks may dissolve with a few good months, and if that happens these guys could be hot commodities at the 2019 trade deadline. Depending on how things are progressing, at some point it would probably also make a lot of sense to trade away Trevor May, who’s only under team control through 2020. Ouch. That hurt to say too. What about all that money coming off the books? The big concern with implementing a plan like this is the message you’re sending to the guys you want to keep around. The best way to ease their minds would be to engage in extension talks with virtually every player you see fitting into the big picture, long term. You’re not going to work out a deal with all of them in one winter, but if you sign a couple extensions and at least show the other players you’re willing to invest in them further, I think the tear down becomes an easier pill to swallow. With this blueprint, it would definitely be possible to front load some extensions, providing guys with significant raises right away. I'd have to think that would be a nice motivational tool. I'm going to avoid throwing out any specifics here. If the trade market is a mysterious beast then projecting extensions is a mythical creature. With that said, let’s take a look at my projected 2019 Opening Day roster: Rotation: Jose Berrios, Michael Pineda, Adalberto Mejia, Fernando Romero and the winner of the fifth starter spring training battle royale. Bullpen: Trevor May, Taylor Rogers, Trevor Hildenberger, Addison Reed, Oliver Drake, Gabriel Moya and Jake Jewell. C: Jason Castro 1B: Tyler Austin 2B: Nick Gordon 3B: Miguel Sano SS: Jorge Polanco LF: Eddie Rosario CF: Byron Buxton RF: Jake Cave DH: Robbie Grossman Bench: Mitch Garver, Ehire Adrianza, Willians Astudillo Among the candidates for the fifth starter would be Kohl Stewart, Stephen Gonsalves, Zack Littell, Chase De Jong, Aaron Slegers, Lewis Thorpe and any of the bargain free agents. Out in the bullpen, Tyler Duffey, Alan Busenitz, John Curtiss, Matt Magill and Andrew Vasquez would all also be in the mix plus any of the thrift shop additions. This team might honestly get the Twins into hot water with the MLB because the payroll would be so ridiculously low. At the same time, I also think this team could probably still finish second in the AL Central in 2019. If Cleveland collapses and this team somehow finds itself in first place at the deadline, the front office would have both the payroll room and prospect capital to make some massive moves if they saw fit. Yes, I'm basically going to dare Nick Gordon to take over as the everyday second baseman. I know he had a terrible end to 2018, but that seems to be a bit of a trend for him. Adrianza is there and in this scenario you'd also go out and acquire another bargain bin insurance option a la Gregrio Petit. New additions Jahmai Jones and Eli White would be back in the high minors to start the year, but could pushing for promotions in the second half. If Gordon falters, one of those guys is next up. If nobody sticks come July ... Royce Lewis time?!?! Lucas Erceg would also be knocking at the door and would push Miguel Sano to a 1B/DH role upon his arrival. Out in the bullpen, Keynan Middleton would join that unit sometime in the second half once he was recovered from TJ. Even with trading away Kepler, there's still enough outfield depth that allows LaMonte Wade to start the year back in the minors. Brent Rooker would also be waiting in the wings for a shot at 1B/DH. This team would look a heck of a lot different after the trade deadline. There’s no way the Twins would do anything similar to what I’m suggesting here, right? Well, two moves made later this past season indicate to me that this front office already has 2020 vision. If they thought this team was going to be a legit contender next season, I don’t think they would have traded away Ryan Pressly and they would have prioritized getting Buxton more plate appearances in September over gaining another year of team control. Throughout the coming days there will be more blueprints offered up by others here at Twins Daily. I bargain that most of them will focus on how to build this team up to compete in 2019. I’m looking forward to seeing what everybody comes up with, and it’s possible that I’ll fall in love with someone else’s blueprint even above my own. Again, the one thing I want to see from the Twins going forward more than anything else is decisiveness. If they’re going to go for it, dive in head first. No more half measures. Please let me know what you think of this blueprint. If you’d like to take a crack at building a blueprint of your own, I think I speak for the entire Twins Daily community in saying we would love to read it. The best place to do that would be in the blog section or in the forum thread Nick started. Click here to view the article

Reed might be better than Granite, but Granite has options. We won't be able to shuttle Reed back and forth from AAA. (So he pretty much has to be back end of the 25 man rather than 40 man)

In my opinion outfield is one of the only positions we don't need to sign someone in. Our priorities should lie in Relief pitching, Middle Infield, and a DH that can back up 1st or 3rd.

Concur concur concur. The Tigers and White Sox aren't going to wait around and continue to suck forever.

OK, but compare the Twins Under 25 players to the Astros, Red Sox and Yankees Under 25 players. They're still way behind the talent needed to win a championship.

I'd like to think they can trade and sign for players to compete next year, in which case I'd still trade guys like Kepler and Odorizzi; not for a handful of prospects but along with prospects for real MLB talent. But if the front office is convinced that the organization's foundation was so irreparably damaged that they still have more work to do before they can compete, I guess this is the way they have to go. I absolutely agree that this team cannot continue treading in mediocrity, intentionally aiming for a .500 season is how you get stuck in MLB purgatory.

The money quote (referring to rebuilding): "I’m more curious if it ever truly started in the first place." In my opinion, it never truly did. Always doing things down the middle hoping things all broke right at the same time to be a contender.

Thanks for the response. I should have added that I think the team can compete in 2020 and be very good in 2021. Without Gibson, the Twins will have only Berrios as an established SP. The upside of any SP in the Twins system that could pitch in 2020 is no greater than what Gibson is right now (including Romero). I'd give him 3/$40M for 2019-21, maybe adding a team option w/buyout for 2022. That's a lot of guaranteed money to turn down. If he doesn't want it, I'd trade him this offseason too.

I believe in Falvey and >evine.Year One, they came in late. They worked with what they had as they started to evaluate the fellow front office staffers and look at the team they inherited. Year Two, the made changes in some coaching and throughout the minors. They had their second real draft. They did some things with international money and grabbing prospects. They suddenly got a push to be competitive in a weak division, and althopugh the play for Yu might've been more lip-service than actual (and thankfully didn't pan out), they did spend monies available to fill the roster with some strong veteran bullpen signings, a temporary fix in the rotation and a bat. Plus they traded excess for Odorizzi who, if he pitched well, could be resigned for a longer term. They managed to flip the under=performing free agents for some system rich prospects. Overall, these guys are looking ahead, trying to invision what the Twins of 2020 and 2021 and beyond will look like. This season they have to AGAIN evaluate the failures of 2018, from Sano and Buxton to even Kepler. They need to make decisions on promising arms like Vurtis and Moya and Gonsalves and Stewart and Littell and even more from their pitching rich system. They have to make some hard decisions because not all of these guys will be here in 2020 and beyond, as there are other arms pushing from the low minors that could break into the team as long lasting prospects. They do have a solid system of "prospects" and need to look at what is out there that will benefit the Twins in trade and be resignable for 3-4 years. They do need to see what free agents they could sign longterm that would be viable for the pay for a 4-7 year term, in truly plausible. They will be in a position to sign some guys, like they did in 2018, for a one-year deal and maybe an option who, no matter how they perform, could still bring back bodies. Of course, they and their staff have to think hard about what prospects have the best chance of being major league material, who will work into the lineups of 2019 and 202 for sure. I do believe they have a plan. That they are pushing for the freedom to make the Twins a dynasty of their own choosing and have been chipping away at the Twins Way and the promote from within and the lifetime employee structure of the organization...all of which can remain but shouldn't be the main priority of putting a winning dynasty on the field. Most of all, I do believe they have monies. 2018 wasn't a total bust and they should still have $115-120 million in payroll. I want them to win, so just saying "remain competitive in the division" isn't enough anymore. Yes, a second place finish in the Central looks good on paper, but it really isn't as glorious as at was the year before, and that wasn't the best of seasons, either. The Big Picture is that these guys have signed and traded for some good hungry players. They will have another off-season to add even more to the mix, and many many of these guys will never ever see daylight in a Twins uniform, but that doesn't mean they don't have value to get someone who can play for the Twins. You only have so many seasons to play with prospects before you lose them. I would love to see the boards in the office, with the names written in for 2020, the possibilites for 2021, the ones even highly rated for the year/s beyond that. Then the names they might be after to fill the holes in each season, and the dollars they feel are worth spending. Right now, the Twins should've been hard-pressed to long sign Buxton, Sano and Kepler. But now there has to be a wait and see. Yes, they should long sign Rosario and Berrios fer sure, maybe look at a couple of bullpen arms, make a decision on Polanco for a lowend 3-year deal (he can always be the super sub). And look at what is available, not just as free agents but also in trade. The evils of free agents is that they do bump prospects, so those prospects need to be moved while they still have supposed value in the eyes of others.

Glad you are addressing the preeminent issue of this offseason: should the Twins retrench as you suggest, go for it all in 2019 or is there some middle way? The difficulty with deciding now what should be done is we don't know how strong the "current core" really is. Without Sano and Buxton rebounding, there is not much of a core - Rosario, Berrios and maybe, Polanco. That's pretty slim pickings for a team with playoff aspirations. Your solution is to start over and wait for the new wave. The fallacy in this approach is that it ignores the vast amount of money available to spend as well as a pretty strong minor league system of our own. Pohlad doesn't need to bank the savings and if a few things bounce right for 2019, like either Sano or Buxton rebounding to near all-star performance(unlikely for both, but at least a 50:50 probability that one reemerges), then some sound FA investments, like two late inning BP arms, a genuine cleanup hitter(DH/! and a middle infielder with some pop might be enough to at least elevate this team back into contention. With the current FA market and lots of cash, this is all eminently doable with some shrewd FO maneuvering. No, free agency alone is not enough to get this team into the elite level but a couple of shrewd trades that could return a badly needed ace or #2 starter by giving up some of the quality in our minor league system and/or trading one of Sano/Buxton (yes, the choice of which one is a hard one but this managment team has seen these two for two seasons now and so should be able to predict which one is more likely to be a keeper. Yes, there is risk, but slotting at least one starter above Berrios is a must if this team is serious about contending in 2019. Trading, Kepler, Gibson and Odorizzi robs us of depth and pushes off the rebuild for at least two more years. I, too, have my reservations about the wonder boys but the fact they are unafraid to strike quickly is a positive trait. Yes, there have been some missteps along the way, but now they have cleared a lot of deadwood, there is ample room for maneuvering. This is their time to strike boldly, not to equivocate.

I'd prefer to aim higher even if it looks like we're set in the OF... Similar to what Milwaukee did. I respect your take though. I agree they need 2-3 really good bullpen arms, a legit SP, middle IF, and someone who can play both 1B/3B.

Agreed. Do it immediately so he's not taking up a 40 man roster space all winter.

I omitted any editorial comment in my reply.

Oh boy. This game again.

Incredibly deep, deep, deep, deep farm system and young MLB, I'd guess.....

Buxton was awesomish in 2017, Sano and Castro were good, and the team won a whopping 85 games. With ESan being the best he could possibly be. Oh, and where is the Dozier season coming from on this roster? This team isn't close to being great, not even a little. All I want is a choice, go in some for this year, but with an eye on teh future (stop only signing 1 year FA deals......), or tear down more than they have. Nothing about last off season made me think this FO thought this was close to a very good team....all of their moves were short term, and on the margins. So, I could get behind this practice, under 2 conditions. first: They are SUPER AGGRESSIVE with promotions and letting young players fail so they can learn and get better. If Kiriloff is killing the ball, and not in MN, then this plan is not for me. Because there is talent enough to be really good in 2020, but only if some of it gets experience this year. second: They are aggressive about adding MLB talent in 2020 and 21, in FA and trades, to fix whatever holes exist. If they just sit on the money, well, good luck..... I would be better with this plan if they kept Gibson or signed Corbin (pipe dream, he's going to a huge market with a huge budget). But, I would be ok if they didn't do that, not thrilled, but ok.

I’d slightly disagree, I do believe that the best teams are projected to be winners, but typically the hottest teams going into the playoffs are the ones that go the deepest. It’s honestly hard to predict who that’s going to be.

This looks like a solid pick. Good numbers in AA and AAA. If he is a better fielder than Jake Cave (not Jake Reed as the article stated), then this seems like a smart move by the Twins.

Thank you, it's still fun to pay attention to and write about! I've done stuff like this about the AFL since before Twins Daily was around. I love to follow it during this time of year. In relation to your "bust" statement, a criticism I would have of the new Front Office is how they've used the AFL the past two years. Granted, it's really tough when two of your players, including the top prospect you were trying to send, are unable to play; but the talent level they have sent has been considerably less than in the past, in my opinion. Plenty of reasons this could be, but the first year I maybe thought was a chance anomaly, this second year is a coincidence, and a third year like this would be a pattern. Could be they just don't see as much value in the league as others do or the Twins have in the past.

You're right, Tom...I'm groaning. I have zero interest in yet another "wait till 3 yrs from now" approach.

I understand your thinking/reasoning, and on the surface it makes sense. Unfortunately I feel this just leads us down a path of being in permanent rebuild mode. We were expecting prospects to come in a few years ago and turn us around. Your strategy is basically saying the same thing with a new core of prospects. Not saying you are wrong and I'm not sure of the exact right thing to do. If we get lucky all the prospects will gel and hit their potential and be superstars. Reality says not likely. Bottom line is that is is a very tough juggling act!

I'd also non-tender Grossman. He's replacement level, is out of minor league options, and won't be paid the minimum. His late season stats are tainted by them being September based....I'd just look at what he was worth over the last three years and move on. It's really about the lack of flexibility......he has no options left, and those that replace him might. (or, if they sign/trade for a really good player to DH/1B/RF, they don't need him.....). They aren't winning anything major next year, most likely....move on from mediocre veterans. Take chances on unknowns or add better players.

Yeah, those reliever heavy drafts are starting to come home to roost now. I once was very excited about many of those names. Now, while I still see some talent in several, most of them I'd only want back if they clear waivers and don't have to be rostered.

I think there's a good point here: it's a lot easier to tear a team down to the studs after a brutal season like the 103 loss one. But they didn't and the team bounced back with an over-achieving 85 win season that put them in the playoffs. This season they got smacked around by injuries and so we dumped a bunch of guys unlikely to be part of the future/FAs. I think it gets to be a hard sell (especially in this community where ownership is perceived as cheap and not committed to winning) to start dealing younger players off the MLB roster for even more prospects, especially when the most heralded prospects in recent vintage haven't consistently graduated to become what we thought/hoped they would be. While Tom's strategy might end up being a smart one to set things up for 2021 or beyond (I'm sorry, but I think with all the moves proposed here, you're setting the MLB club back far enough that expecting them to be ready in 2020 is...unlikely) it probably gets the front office fired before it comes to fruition, unless guys like Royce Lewis & Alex Kirilloff stay on their fastest of tracks and have zero setbacks. I dunno. Of course, the bigger problem is Tom's lineup has 4 guys whose last name ends in "O", with a potential 5th in Astudillo and that's just going to wreak havoc with the announcing team.

Jaylin Davis's four-hit night last night should help!

I think I'd non-tender Grossman. He's going to be looking at raise in arbitration (shocking to most Twins fans, but that's the way the process works) and I'm not sure a no-power DH/poor defensive OF is a great for for this squad. The solid slugging in 2016 looks like a fluke year and I dunno if it's worth paying him $2.5-$3M for his OBP. Feels like there will be better options in FA to improve that slot on the 25-man. The only thing that makes this a little bit of a question is he is a switch hitter, but I suspect he's going to be increasingly ineffective against RHP, which costs value there too. I'd hate to end up keeping him on the roster if someone else outperforms him in Spring Training because we don't want to eat the contract. But maybe someone who has a better feel for the FA market will correct me.

I was envisioning something similar, so thank you for giving it some real thought and color.

Interesting article, Tom. And I sure am glad you are not the Twins GM. The core of this team right now is Rosario, Gibson and Berrios. Sign all three to extensions and build a team around them.....for 2019 and beyond. As for next year, success or lack thereof is in the hands of Sano and Buxton. They perform at levels near their ceilings and you are in the playoffs and maybe the Series. Perform like last year and the Twins are screwed. One of two performs and they are in the hunt. Yes, the Twins have a few holes that need to be filled to go beyond round one if Sano/Buxton deliver. I see those as a left handed first baseman/DH (maybe Mauer), a second baseman and a top relief pitcher. And they will only need the second baseman for a year or two.

I commend you for the creative positivity of the headline, creating excitement, and enticing the the read to find Blankenhorn is ripping it up in the AFL. That isn't easy with a .188/.316/.250 line. All in all, other than Smeltzer and Bray so far, this seems like a total bust for our Twins contingent.

I would add Weil personally, though if they can get away with not adding him, that's great. I suppose with him being a 1B/DH type, he's likely to not be selected. I also think they should be looking at trading some guys like Stewart, Slegers, Littell, or Gonsalves. They won't be able to keep all of them, and flipping one of them for some help elsewhere or prospects makes sense. They need a 2B and could use a flex player. Not sure you'd get an allstar, but I'd like to believe one or two of those guys could net a decent ML piece.

So expose him.....if they lose him, they never had him. No biggie either way most likely.

This front office has not committed to anything yet and if I suspect they are not ready to yet either. While other clubs commit to group of players and build around them to try to put winning team together we have not committed to one player either young or old. Now we are coming to this year we have 2/3 of the rotation that will become free agents next year. we have heard of no talks with any players to extending them contract and only one that was offered longer term contract was Buxton on very team friendly offer last year. I my experience as baseball fan a team needs core of baseball players that you can construct team around not always most talented but nucleus that provides right club house and does thing that make team good. The Twins have not had this now for at least three years or more with the exception of Mauer who has been in last years of his career. The year the Twins signed Tori Hunter with Mauer they started winning what we heard how they led this young group of players. This past year we had Brian Dozier and Escobar but its hard to be club house leader when your Front office is trying to trade you and not committing to you beyond your contract. This brings to me this team now who do the Twins have as leaders for the future my answer is nobody everyone is playing for their next contract or just waiting to be traded. Rosario is probably best hitting player the Twins have but he doesn't appear to me a team leader. Buxton could become a team leader but question there is can he overcome his own problems to ever become that player. Sano is not team leader now and I have my doubts if he will ever become that type of player. Everyone is convinced here on the board we need to trade Kepler because he's at his peak but I think he's going to become monster of player in next few years. He is type of player that could become leader for this club he play's smart, works hard, versatile in where he can play, and his stats should be better than they have been for batting but seems to have been unlucky in getting hits. I think he could be core player and leader for the future of this club but time will only tell on that. But getting back to this front office its time for them to start committing to this team by deciding who and how they are going to build this team around. This where I believe they are very weak as front office they have all these theories but when it comes to building a team they lack experience and baseball eyesight to know how to build a team with a group of players. The analytical people are what somebody said other day on one baseball shows these are people if they were poker players are used to limited poker where the game is limited by statistics but people like Red Sox are playing unlimited poker they are betting even when stats say something else not saying they don't use analytical information but they are also using their baseball and people knowledge to construct their teams and how they play the game. The fault of previous Front office was they were behind on analytics but they did have people skills and eye skills to find baseball players now this front office is just opposite but they are inexperienced in running a club and so far shown they have lack of commitment to their team when they shown they can compete. I will hear how they signed all the free agents this past year but the plan was based on short term where they could sell their signees and still didn't commit to any player long term. We see how that played out and the now were left with no experienced players and whole lot of questions left on remaining players. Now we start with new manager that could be good manager but problem no matter how good manager you are you need a team to manage. Only saving grace for the Twins is there in divisions with three other clubs in the rebuilding mode but we will see of these three teams who rebuilds fastest my guess is by end of next season we will be wondering how were in last place.

In this scenario, you're rolling with Buxton sink or swim. Things could go very poorly, but by the end of the season you're going to have a better feel for who he is. Still very annoyed they didn't do this in September this past season. But along with Cave, forgotten man Zack Granite's still around too. Arraez would definitely be in the mix for second base. That guy can hit for contact but I'm not sold on the other tools. Do you remember the catching carousel on the 2000 Twins team? They had five different guys make at least 10 starts back there, but by the end of the auditions A.J. had emerged as the guy. That's kind of what I envision with second base in this scenario.

I feel this is the wrong approach. Cleveland is far from a super team. There is no fall back plan if Buxton struggles or fails. A couple of upper level bullpen pieces and a short term FA at 2nd base or maybe Arraenz should be close without breaking the bank for the future.

I like the tear it down and rebuild it approach. I just wish the front office had started this type of effort two years ago instead of being so wishy washy.

Navarreto was drafted in 2013, so he's not a free agent for another year. Bard and Baxendale became free agents at the end of the World Series. One thing for people to remember... The Twins will DFA some more guys before they add a few guys. I don't expect them to add too many. Remember,, those players added can't be removed from the 40-man roster until sometime in spring training. So, they'll leave some open roster spots and they'll keep some guys on the 40-man roster that they can DFA during the winter if needed. Do we know if LaMonte Wade is better than Robbie Grossman? I don't know that. I would say No right now.

Arraez is the only position player who stands any chance of being protected. I don't really think the Twins would worry that someone is going to take Zander Wiel and keep him on the big league roster all year. I don't know enough about the pitchers to comment. Suffice it to say, if the Twins didn't think enough of the close ones to give them a look in September, it's really unlikely they'll be protected. Some of the bigger arms or ones that are just coming back from injury (like Jay) have a chance. I always think that this type of article makes little sense without listing the current 40-man roster so that we can get an idea of how many spots there might be. For this particular year, though, I think there are going to be a lot of changes and new additions from outside the organization. Off-topic: Is there anything you can do so that two spaces after a period doesn't show up as zero spaces? A lot of us learned to use two spaces after a sentence, and in no way is that going away because we're commenting here. :-)

I'm baffled by the inconsistencies in this argument. the FO are automatons, but they're running a "chicken soup for the soul" franchise? You're mad about the decision to fire Molitor, but you don't hold it against the new guy, but you won't go to a twins game again unless Molitor gets hired to manage by someone else?