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They should sign Garcia, and then trade him right before opening day. This will signal to the team that they are throwing in the towel on the season, at which point the players will get angry and prove them wrong. There might also be a life-size cardboard likeness of Falvey involved.

Sigh... I hoped this off-season would be different. Every year they wait is another year overlapping the time when Buxton, Sano, Rosario, Berrios, etc. need to get paid. If the Twins can't compete for the best FA SP in a year where every large market org sits out for financial reasons, what makes people think they can compete next off-season when their luxury tax penalties are reset?

I got a great idea. Lets wait till next offseason to try to sign a pitcher when all of the big market teams are back in after resetting their luxury tax. Surely we will have a better chance to sign the best pitcher then....

I'm wondering if expectations regarding Berrios haven't spilled over the top. Find a front line starter, Mr. Falvey. If we suddenly find that our mystery FA and Berrios, Santana, Gibson, Mejia, May, Romero, Gonsalves, Slegers, Hughes, and Jorge are all lights out, then we have some unforeseen trade chips. Yay.

Ya, but just wait, the next year will be great, and then they'll spend money!

That's true but do you see anybody in next year's SP FA class that would clearly be better than either Darvish or Arrieta? I still like Darvish better than Keuchel but in general any big FA pitcher they sign will likely be early 30s with the same type of questions as this year's group. Unless they can pull off something crazy like a Machado or Harper signing followed by a big trade for a starter, I don't see the advantage of waiting a year to spend on the same type(s) of pitchers.

Honestly, I'm now kinda leaning toward avoiding a Lynn or Cobb deal at this point (unless they can be had for a steal). I don't want either one on a four year deal. Two years? Sure, but that's unlikely to happen. Arrieta is a question mark but his upside is waaaaaayyy higher than either of those guys. If it came down to Gibson or Cobb/Lynn, I may roll with Gibson (knowing that May is in the mix, as are Gonsalves and Romero).

Do Cobb, Lynn and Arrieta get to play this first-half/second-half game? Because, just eyeballing br-com's splits for them quickly, all three of these gentlemen had better second halves too.

A few things here: * I doubt anyone gives Darvish 7/175. * People are waaay too hopeful on our young pup AAA and AA pitchers to make an impact this year. * Don't people think we can do better than having Gibson as our #5? * People are underestimating Lynn and Cobb, who are really solid 3's. * I wouldn't mind signing Vargas or Tillman to a one year contract to be our #5, IF we also sign one of the top 4 FAs.

Maybe we should be scouting the California Penal League for a new pitcher too?

You're much more confident than I am that the Twins can figure out a lot about their internal SP candidates in a single season. None of their SP prospects even have any meaningful AAA experience yet. They might debut later in 2018 but I don't think we'll be confident enough in any of them to lessen our need for external reinforcements before 2019.

Pitchers make changes all the time. I am not sold on Gibson having turned any corner; he's turned corners before, only to disappoint us, and somehow the corner got un-turned in his final three starts in 2017. I'm rooting for Kyle, just not counting on him.

I don't see anyone who wants Darvish caterwauling about the Mauer deal. It doesn't and never has been a problem with payroll. Whatever deal Darvish gets this year is going to look like a bargain come next winter after the big clubs jump back into the deep end of free agency. Next year is going to usher in a new level of spending, if the Twins don't get Darvish now, they might as well just pour all their resources on developing an ace because they won't be able to compete for a front of the rotation arm again unless a salary cap is instituted. It's now or never. If it's never we're probably going to have to start over.

There is a ton of money coming of the very dusty books. Even if two of the young guys are going to be legit they won't be right away. Look at the development of Berrios. It will take time to be a pitcher capable of winning in the playoffs. If a good deal is available there is no better time then now. That being said if Darvish is really going to get as many years as speculated even a non-banker might balk at that deal

that and Berrios and Mejia are the only two 2017 starters probable for ‘19. Still plenty of room for a long contract and get the minor league graduates a spot.

The late market on starters is going to create the opportunity to get a good deal with someone. That might mean a one year deal for one of the above. It might mean getting Cobb or Lynn on a three year deal instead of 4.

I didn't say that. Quite the opposite in fact. "The Twins shouldn't hesitate to take that leap for someone they truly believe in." I'm just far from convinced that they believe in any of those other top 4 guys. And I'm not certain they should. They're fallback options. The downside that's overlooked by saying "Just spend the dang money" is that it pretty much deprives them of being able to make a similar (or even bigger) splash next offseason, when they have more spending flexibility and a clearer idea of their long-term needs.

It seems antithetical to say they should be in win-now mode, while at the same time calling it irresponsible to invest significantly in a front line starter. Payroll is barely at $100 million (with revenues around $250, and rising). A major signing should by no means hamstring this team going forward, especially with Mauer, Hughes, and Santana coming off the books in the near future. Also, these signings aren't made in a vacuum. A Darvish signing likely increases merchandise revenue, ticket sales, possibly additional revenue from more playoff games, more primetime TV appearances, etc. Sigmkng Darvish vs some washout reclamation project doesn't necessarily mean that the difference in their contract price will equal foregone revenue. The problem, IMO, is that people have convinced themselves that they can't afford it, and I'm not sure why. In reality, they can. It's just a matter of where ownership's priorities lie. Think of it this way, the Pohlad's are risk averse investors. When it comes to baseball, they'd rather take the safe return, and invest in treasury notes as opposed to a potentially volatile, but high-upside IPO.

Dear Falvey and Lavine, You better walk away with a difference maker this year. Don't screw this up. Sincerely Riverbrian

Hard pass on Tillman. If it's Tillman versus playing one of our youngsters, I'll take the youngster. I get a little tired of our SOP of signing people on the cheap we are hoping rebound.

I don't mean to stick a pin in your balloon but here is what Gibson looked like for a pretty large portion of 2015: 8 GS, 47.0 IP, 3.64 ERA, 14 BB, 44 SO That's the time I thought Gibson had turned the corner because it's hard to "fake" strikeouts over a ten game stretch of starts. Maybe not so much.

I'm all for signing one of these guys to a one year contract. Why not? Seems like an excellent idea if the player and agent get desperate. I never expected the Twins would get close to signing Darvish this offseason. However, a couple of days ago I've done 180 degree turnaround. I actually think the Twins are still going to sign Darvish. Here's why: 1. Milwaukee supposedly offered a 4 year contract. Twins 5 years. Cubs are in this too but I don't think they want to increase the payroll that much. 2. The other big market teams are out of this for compelling reasons (payroll penalties). 2. Darvish wants 7 years. He can ask for that all day long but if nobody is offering that he has only 3 options: lower his expectations, sit the year out or sign a BIG one year contract (unlikely). 4. The Twins are a competitive team, with a great lineup, a great defense and a pitchers ballpark. 5. What's left? Not a lot except for the Twins...

2018 free agents starting pitchers, Clayton Kershaw, David Price, Matt Harvey, Gio Gonzalez, Patrick Corbin, Drew Pomeranz, Garrett Richards, Drew Smyly, Brandon McCarthy from here https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/2017/08/21/mlb-2018-free-agent-class-bryce-harper-manny-machado/585368001/ Kershaw is 31 and I don't see us getting him, Price is 34. I don't like that list any better than the ones available now. Trading seems to be the only way to get a top rotation guy, unless by magic one of our minor league pitchers does it in less than 1 year.

Here is what I see, and I suspect some of the Twins' brass does as well. Data: Alex Cobb: 3.66 ERA, 4.16 FIP, 1.221 WHIP, 6.4 K/9, 2.91 K/BB Lance Lynne (2017 vs AL): 4.25 ERA, 1.517 WHIP, 7 K/9, 1.64 K/BB Jake Arrieta (2017 vs AL) 3.38 ERA, 1.333 WHIP, 7.1 K/9, 1.90 K/BB Kyle Gibson (2017 2nd Half) 3.76 ERA, 1.278 WHIP, 8.2 K/9, 3.12 K/BB Gibson's second half was as good, if not better than any of the other three's splits against the AL. Who in the right mind would pay Gibson what they are asking for, plus surrender a draft pick? I wouldn't. They might go the short term contract situation, but not with those 3, since a pick will be involved, but it is tough to see the logic behind signing a Jaime Garcia while they can probably get equal production (4.82 ERA, 4.87 FIP, 1.634 WHIP, 8.9 K/9, 1.85 K/BB with the Yankees last season) with a rotation of Gonsalves/Romero/Jorge/Enns in the last starter post until someone sticks or May is ready. May's last stint at starting was pretty good (4.43 ERA, 1.380 WHIP, 7.9 K/9, 4.06 K/BB, as a starter in 2015) and he should be improving from that. The Garcia's and Tillman's of the world can't touch this...

Well, if we take the front office at their word, they have maintained interest in Darvish all winter, even with offers apparently around 5/125. That suggests they don't have too many doubts about the value of Darvish -- and they probably have enough concerns about the state of our starting pitching that we need more than just a Tillman type. Or, if we doubt their word, they have exaggerated their interest in Darvish for PR gain, but I hope not.

I expect that the front office is also looking hard at 2019. Right now they have 7 potential starters who could be under contract. That includes Berrios, Gibson, Mejia, Pineda, May, Hughes and Santana. Of that group, Santana is a team option with a potential vesting clause that would guarantee it. Could that group lead the Twins to a World Series? Berrios is a potential #1 starter or even an ACE. Will Santana continue pitching like 2017? Did Gibson finally turn the corner? Will May and Pineda return to top form following TJ surgery? Lots of question with most needing to pan out to play deep into October. But this group doesn't include any of Gonsalves, Jorge or Romero. Won't all of us be disappointed if at least one of that trio doesn't earn a spot in the 2019 starting rotation? Looking at 2019, it seems to support Nick's position that it may make sense to go all in on a reclamation project on a one year contract in 2018. The only alternative would be if they can sign a #1 starter long-term. And the only guy out there who fits that bill would be Darvish. And in his case, you can't go over 4 or 5 years max.

I am all for signing Tillman to a 1 year deal. He has been an opening day starter for Baltimore. I also don't think this should be the only signing. This team still needs a top end starter, such as Darvish, if the money/years are good.

I still think Lynn would be worth a long term deal outside of Darvish... but on this idea, I think both Cahill and Vargas (preferably Cahill) make sense. Not liking the idea of a 1 year deal, but I could see the logic and get behind it, especially since Cahill is a reasonable bet to put up similar numbers to Darvish... It's the shoulder injury that I'd need to be comfortable with.

If the Twins can't sign Darvish, I wouldn't mind a one-year deal with Arietta. Cobb and Lynn don't excite me all that much. But man, the Twins really need a better starter this year. Their window is open and they should take it.

It was just a short time back when many people were applauding the major contracts given out by the Twins for pitchers like Nolasco, Pelfrey, etc. And then they bemoaned the fact that those contracts prevented the Twins from pursuing other free agents a couple years later. And now history is repeating itself. If the front office has doubts about the value of Darvish, Arrietta, Cobb, and Lynn, then they should opt for a one-year guy with some chance of a rebound/turnaround season. Push the young arms already in the system to see if they are ready. There are five or six young arms mentioned in prospect reviews as having major league potential. See if any of those are the real thing. Throwing money at a problem isn't the answer if you don't have confidence in what you are getting. I saw a short video of a Twins fan complaining about the front office not offering Darvish whatever he wanted. The fan actually said that "all they are interested in is having a competitive team on the field and that the at the end of the year, the books are in the black." To me, that sounds like running a business properly.

http://gentlemint-media.s3.amazonaws.com/images/2012/04/18/6745f59b.jpg.505x650_q85.jpg ANND Welcome! To Minnesota Twins Whine Line: Detective Edition! I'm your LEAD Investigator, Vanimal, along with my trusty sidekick, the intern. Since we last checked in, both of us set down the PS4 controllers, put MLB The Show back in the case, and studied for our Private Investigator license! In the real world, we noticed that it's January 30th, and 8 out of the top 10 free agents have still yet to sign! It's a strange, boring off-season... There's been several STRONG takes about why this is happening... And we're no different! We decided to put on our Deerstalker, and dive deep into the REAL reason why recent off-seasons are boring... Collusion: It happened once before, so it could happen again, right? That's what we thought too! Until we put it to the test using real world examples... Have you ever arranged a conference call with 30 busy people before? It's NEARLY impossible to do! Plus, they would waste countless hours of time! Owners will be talking over each other, waiting for others to take themselves off mute, jumping on the line 25 minutes late, and needing to "circle back at a later time." All of that sounds exhausting.... Whine Line Verdict: False. Waiting for a Sale: As consumers, we're accustomed to Black Friday, Cyber Monday, 4th of July BLOWOUTS, or "just because!" sales. Doesn't it feel good to purchase what you wanted, for a 30% discount! Of course it does! General Managers are humans too, and they want to feel like they got a discount... Now these days he could look at MLBTradeRumors, FanGraphs, even the Twins Daily Handbook to find salary projections of free agents. Where's the excitement?! The THRILL of the hunt?! Perhaps they're waiting for their Cyber Monday sale.... Whine Line Verdict: Certainly possible! Too Many Options: Typically at this time of year, 1 or 2 of the top free agents are left unsigned... If that! This year, there are 4 to 8 times as many options! Is it possible that General Managers are frozen in fear because there's too many players to choose from? We took our investigation on the road to get to the bottom of it! ANNND Welcome back! We're broadcasting LIVE from the Cheesecake Factory! That's right, the home of a 20 page menu.... If you can't find something to eat here, you're not looking hard enough! In order to test this theory, the intern and I gave ourselves a 30 minute window to decide what to order... WAITER: "Here are your waters, gentleman. Do you have any questions about the menu? Or know what you want?" VAN: "I think we need a little bit of time. There's so many options here. Any specials?" WAITER: "Today's soup of the day is split-pea, and we also have a Philly cheese steak with your choice of fries, salad, fruit, onion rings, or vegetable." VAN: "Wow, even the sides have a bunch of options to choose from... Okay, we need some time." 8 minutes later... WAITER: "Are you ready to order? Questions at all?" VAN: "Yeah, a few questions. I'm debating between the Avocado BLT, Philly cheese steak, Chicken Parmesan, or Chicken Enchiladas. What would you choose?" WAITER: "Hmm, well, our Philly is one of the most popular orders today. The Chicken Parmesan is okay, but I would recommend our Spaghetti and Meatballs over that. And frankly, you're better off going somewhere else for Mexican food." VAN: "That helps... And the Cobb Salad?" WAITER: "I mean, it's a salad.... So... How about you sir, are you ready?" INTERN: "I'll have the uh, chi.... No. Not that. Umm.... Can you come back to me?" WAITER: "Guys, I do have other tables to tend to. I'll come back later." 13 minutes later.... WAITER: "Okay, how about now?" INTERN: "I.... I...... I JUST CAN'T DECIDE! Please, come back to me, okay?" WAITER: "Are you crying, sir?" INTERN: "It's your fault! There isn't a perfect option to order... EVERYTHING has flaws!" WAITER: "Okay, this is getting weird. What about you, sir?" VAN: "I have narrowed it down to 2 items, and I will get back to you by the end of the week." WAITER: "This ISN'T how this works, sir. Look, guys, it's only lunch. You're just spending some money now... It's not like you're trading me your watch, or I don't know... a top prospect like Nick Gordon in order to eat. So what do you say? Let's figure this out before my shift is over, okay?" VAN & INTERN: "Wow... This HAS to be how Falvine feels signing free agents.... I've seen the light!" Whine Line Verdict: TRUE

Exactly! 2020 FA starting pitchers, The King (33), Hamels (36), Porcello (31), Rich Hill (39), Hughes (33), Erv (37), Nova (33), Hammel (37), Chacin (32), Bumgarner (30), Sale (30), Pineda (31), Smyly (30), Fister (35), Richard (36), Moore (30), Peralta (30), Lyles (29), De La Rosa (30), Roark (33), Cole (29), Gibson (32), Gray (30), Odorizzi (29), McHugh (32), Ramirez (29), Wacha (28), Wheeler (29), Wood (29) Maybe we should wait until 2021, then make a big splash.

Imagine landing Darvish on a 6 year deal and Arrieta on a 1 year make good... not likely, but not impossible in this market

"Anything approaching those figures would be unrealistic, not to mention irresponsible, for Minnesota to offer." I know why we think it's unrealistic. That would more than triple our top FA contract in franchise history. I don't know why it's irresponsible though. The Pohlad's have the money and there is no cap so it wouldn't limit us in the future. I'll use the example I used in your article "open windows" from last week. The Pujols contract for the Angels looks bad. In fact, pretty much every big contract is not worth it from a production/dollar stand point. That said, I am going to assume that Art Moreno/LAA hasn't lost any value. Quite the contrary, I would assume that the value of the organization has still increased in that time. So I will pose my question again. When you're worth $3.8 billion and have no cap limit...why is irresponsible? Where is the risk?

Why would Dozier stay if the front office does not add to the roster? It would be out of character after last year. Also, eSan sand Pineda are of the roster after 2019.... How do you plan to fill those spots? People need to look at next year's list of free agents, and so themselves if any are better than Lynn or Cobb.... And they won't be cheaper....

If we do nothing and not sign one of the 4 free agent pitchers our off season is a failure imo. Look I am all for seeing what Gonsalves and Romero can do, but right now neither one is ready to legitimately contribute to rotation now. And if the Twins sign a pitcher like Chris Tillman or Jamie Garcia to me it’s a sign the Twins aren’t serious to make the playoffs this year. And we can hope Trevor May can be a solid piece of the rotation but even so he is far from a sure thing.

I don't see it. The Central will probably be the mediocre division that it always is. In the AL, most of the capital is in the East, and the West is always interesting down the stretch.

Good speculation, but too early. I think we can safely put Detroit in the doldrums, after all they hired a manager who specializes in big loss teams, but Chicago could surprise and maybe KC will do something yet. 130 FA unsigned, spring training ahead, rookies can still surprise, injuries can upset plans, and trades can reset teams. I agree that we look really good right now and I do think that Cleveland is substantially injured by the events so far, but, as fun as it is, I cannot project anything yet.

It's bias against Canadians!

But it is so much more than a business. It is a social contract with a community.

Most of the high level starters in 2018 off season will not hit free agency or be very very expensive. Darvish makes a lot of sense, and I am willing to go to about $150 million. Above that it is very dicey. Adding 1 high level pitcher in a win now mode and knowing after 2018 Twins will need to make many more pitching decisions make me feel that this is by far the correct move. If Darvish wants 7/$175 it gets very tricky.

I posted on my blog - he needs to have a Rickey Henderson approach. I am serious, speed, defense and some power. He needs to focus his inner Rickey and he is HOF

Bux needs to bat leadoff.

As we near the two week mark before pitchers and catchers report in Fort Myers, we're starting to see signs that this painfully frigid free agent market may be finally thawing. The Brewers staked their claim on a crowded NL Central with two big outfield acquisitions last week, and rumors abound that Yu Darvish is closing in on a decision that might open the free agent starter floodgates. While we wait to hear whether Darvish picks the Twins or sends the front office scrambling for Plan B, let's take a look at how the top four free agent starters – Darvish, Jake Arrieta, Lance Lynn and Alex Cobb – stack up against the existing Twins rotation candidates by the numbers. Today we'll start with rate stats, and I'll follow up with a "Part II" that takes a deeper look at the major WAR and projection models. I imagine every Twins Daily reader is familiar with the drawbacks of both ERA and FIP. ERA holds the pitcher completely responsible for every ball in play, ignoring defense, ballpark factors and dumb luck. FIP clears the pitcher of any responsibility on balls in play that don't leave the ballpark, ignoring quality of contact on those balls in play. Enter this author's new favorite pitching stat: Statcast's new xwOBA metric. You can find a detailed description at the previous link, but you could say that xwOBA takes FIP to the next level: maintaining the pitcher's responsibility for strikeouts and walks while also giving pitchers due credit (or penalty) for their quality of contact beyond just home runs. Ervin Santana is a great case study here. Erv's 2017 ERA was stellar, but his FIP suggests that it was helped out quite a bit by some combination of defense, ballpark factors and luck. xwOBA helps us cut through the noise here by showing that Santana's overall production (.292 vs. .320 lg avg) was more in line with his ERA (3.28 vs 4.49) than his FIP (roughly lg avg). Yu Darvish's numbers, especially in the second half, tell a similar story. xwOBA suggests that he was far and away the best of the available free agent starters in spite of his inflated ERA, and that his second half was terrific despite some of the traditional results suggesting he faded. Perhaps this, and his strong early starts in the playoffs, suggest that his World Series collapse was in fact the result of pitch tipping rather than an overall fade in production. Arrieta's second half may be even more interesting. His ERA drops substantially in the second half, and while his FIP suggests that it may have been more luck than production, his xwOBA reinforces that he was indeed generating significantly better quality of contact to go with his continued strong strikeout and control rates. With Lance Lynn and Alex Cobb we can say with some certainty that either would have slotted well ahead of any Twins pitchers not named Santana or Berrios in 2017, but let's take a closer look at the numbers. Nick recently applauded Lynn on Twitter for his consistency and the numbers back him up here, particularly looking at xwOBA which suggests that an inflated 2017 FIP may not be that concerning. With Cobb, many have pointed to his hot second half as a positive, but his FIP remained essentially the same and his xwOBA actually regressed in the second half, suggesting his second half surge may have had a fair amount of luck attached to it. What else jumps out at you in these numbers? Mejia's second half? May's strong 2015 xwOBA as a starter?

Twins ain't winning 100

"Morneau was an MVP. So he could be on there for sure." So was Zoilo. In 57 years of baseball, it takes more than just a MVP award to get you in the top15 (although I think Justin barely sneaks in anyway)

Thanks for the Vin Scully clip. I always go back to this one, so I'm not sure I've heard the Scully version. Jack Buck, Vin Scully. To-mate-oh, To-mot-oh. It doesn't get any better than either of those.

We also have Pineda potentially in the rotation in 2019. I agree with Darvish or one-year stop-gap.

7 years 175 million is less than Mauer's contract , and his is 8 years old. There is more money to be had by the Twins especially if they win. 23 mill a year for Mauer is 23% of a Hundred mill team payroll. 25 mill for a year for Darvish is only 18% of a 135 million payroll. The money will come back to the team easily if they make a big statement AND if they win. I have been back and forth on this but right now I think they should go for it. Darvish will have at least three great years in him. Why not try to win?

Vargas was downright bad vs. LH pitching last year. Can he be counted on to be acceptable against lefties, I don't think so.