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  • Twins Daily 2022 Top Prospects: Honorable Mentions


    Seth Stohs

    Over the next couple of weeks, Twins Daily will be counting down our Top 20 Minnesota Twins Prospects. We start today by discussing several Honorable Mentions, guys who received votes but finished outside the Top 20. Today’s list of players illustrates the depth that is developing in the organization.

    Image courtesy of William Parmeter / Mighty Mussels (graphics by Thieres Rabelo))

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    Looking beyond the top 20 illustrates the depth of the organization. These Twins Daily rankings are comprised of the votes of 11 Twins Daily writers who covered the Twins farm system in 2021. The voters followed the system nearly daily over the past season. Many watched a lot of video. Some attended some games at the Twins affiliates. 

    In 2019, Luis Arraez and Jordan Balazovic appeared in this list. Two years ago, names such as Randy Dobnak, LaMonte Wade, Jorge Alcala, Bailey Ober were outside the Top 20. (maybe I shouldn’t mention that Akil Baddoo was a 2020 Honorable Mention.)  Last year’s Honorable Mention group contains several players who have moved up the rankings

    Many of the prospects you’ll read about today could be, and maybe should be, in the Top 20 in one year. In fact, I wouldn’t be surprised if a couple of these players are Top 10 prospects one year from now. 

    Before we start, the following players are no longer “prospects” according to Baseball-Reference: Alex Kirilloff, Ryan Jeffers, Brent Rooker, Trevor Larnach, Ben Rortvedt, Nick Gordon, Bailey Ober, and Ralph Garza, Jr

    FIRST-ROUND FEATURES  

    If anyone in the top 20 is unable to fulfill their duties, well, the #21 prospect is 2020 first-round pick Aaron Sabato. The first baseman struggled in his professional debut. We have reviewed and replayed his statistics, the low batting average, lots of strikeouts. But, he also has a very good eye at the plate, and his final couple weeks in Ft. Myers and during his time in Cedar Rapids, Sabato reminded us of the power potential that he possesses. 

    Likewise, 2019 first-round pick Keoni Cavaco falls out of the top 20. While he still has immense tools, speed, power, and arm strength, he continued to struggle at the plate in Ft. Myers, especially as the season went along. He also fought some injuries including a concussion. Cavaco was one of the Twins prospects who was most hurt by the lost 2020 season. He remained young for the Low-A level and certainly had less pro experience than most. But often, talent and athleticism work out and Cavaco remains very intriguing. 

    ALREADY DEBUTED 

    Jovani Moran was drafted in 2015 and in 2021, he finally made his MLB debut in September. The lefty has put up huge strikeout numbers throughout his minor league career. He dominated at Double-A and then Triple-A before spending the final month with the Twins. He could be a big part of the Twins bullpen for years to come. 

    ON THE 40 ALREADY 

    A couple of very hard-throwing right-handers on the 40-man roster fell just outside the Top 20. Drew Strotman came to the Twins from Tampa in the Nelson Cruz trade. He’s got a four-pitch mix that includes a fastball that can touch 98 mph. He struggled in his time with the Saints, but he should help the Twins in 2022. Even after Tommy John surgery, the Rays had added Strotman to the 40-man roster. 

    Chris Vallimont came to the Twins from the Marlins in the Lewin Diaz trade in 2019. Another starter with a big fastball, Vallimont sits 94 to 96 and touched 97. He was very inconsistent in 2021, especially with his control. Too many walks. However, he was a strikeout machine and his stuff is so good the Twins put him on their 40-man roster after the season. 

    ARM STRENGTH 

    The 2019 Twins draft included a lot of college pitchers, and several of them have made an impression already, even with the lost 2020 season. Casey Legumina didn’t pitch after that 2019 draft as he was recovering from Tommy John surgery, so 2021 was his professional debut.

    Sawyer Gipson-Long began the season with a rough start, but he proved durable and unlike many, he became an innings eater. At the same time, he too recorded a lot of strikeouts. 

    WE HARDLY KNOW YE 

    We already mentioned Aaron Sabato above, but all four of the Twins 2020 draft picks received votes, but not enough to get into the Top 20. Frankly, we just haven’t seen enough of them yet for various reasons. 

    Alerick Soularie put up big offensive numbers at Tennessee before the Twins made him their second round pick. Unfortunately in spring training, he had a foot injury, so he didn’t get into games until the second half of the season. 

    Marco Raya was the team’s 4th round pick in 2020, and with a minor injury, he did not pitch at all in 2021 either, so he is yet to make his professional debut. Yet, reports out of instructional league mentioned that he was hitting 97 mph with his fastball. When he was drafted, it was for things like control, a strong pitch mix. To add velocity to that is really exciting. 

    Kala’i Rosario was their fifth and final pick of the 2020 draft. He was one of the most powerful prep bats in that draft. His pro debut came in the FCL and he was named the Twins Daily Short-Season Minor League Hitter of the Year. 

    Of course, we also didn’t see a lot of the 2021 draft picks, but a few of them have already made an impression. 

    No 2021 draft pick made a bigger impression than fourth-round pick Christian Encarnacion-Strand. He hit in 21 of 22 games played and posted a .391/.424/.598 (1.022) with four homers. 

    Third-round pick Cade Povich also was impressive. The southpaw from Nebraska pitched in just 10 innings in his pro debut, but he had 19 strikeouts in that time. And again, reports from the instructional league noted that he was hitting 97 mph fairly consistently. 

    Yasser Mercedes received a $1.7 million signing bonus from the Twins just a month ago. An athletic outfielder, Mercedes is just 16-years-old but obviously an intriguing talent. 

    In 2018, Misael Urbina received a $2.75 million signing bonus from the Twins as a 16-year-old international free agent. A week into the 2021 season, Urbina moved up to the Mighty Mussels. He was one of the younger players in the league and struggled, hitting under-.200 and yet he held his own and showed a good plate approach. 

    Yunior Severino came on strong after he was promoted from Ft. Myers to Cedar Rapids. After hitting .245 in 63 games with Ft. Myers, he hit .321 in 35 games for the Kernels. Combined, he was second in the organization with 29 doubles. 

    As I look at this group of Honorable Mentions, it is incredibly exciting. There are five or six pitchers that are very intriguing in this list with big velocity and the ability to get strikeouts. There are a few hitters that have big power potential. As I said in the beginning, many of these players could move up the rankings in 2022. 


    That is a lot of talent, and those are guys who rank outside of the Twins Daily Top 20 prospects. Check back over the next two weeks to see who our 2021 Top 20 Twins Prospects are. 

     

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    When I saw your headline, Seth, the first thing I thought about turned out to be your opening.  Who in this group will have great summers and be in your Top 20 next year, or even Top 10?

    My memory isn't what it used to be, but I gotta believe that several of these kids would have been Top 20 material back when we started following the minor leagues, wouldn't they Seth?

    The biggest disappointment has to be the two recent first round picks.  But seeing Rosario in this group and not in the Top 20 is more than a surprise to me, hell, its shocking.  Loved your recent work about the two lefties taken high last summer, so more than surprised to find Povich in this group.  Soularie and Raya are likely both Top 20 material, just haven't had the opportunity to get on the field.  Seeing so many exciting prospects in this group tells me the Twins organization is in fantastic shape.  Now if they can just get on Target Field in a couple years, maybe the Twins will start winning again. 

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    Great teaser article, Seth!  It gets us all ready for the Top 20.  The thing that strikes me about the Twins farm system is the sheer quantity of legitimate prospects.  We may not have as many big name prospects that others have, but the depth is amazing.  In today's game, with player development processes getting better and better, having great depth in your farm system is the way to go.  Just look at the number of pitchers that are adding 3 or 4 mph to their fastballs, without a loss of control, after working with the development team for a few months or a year.  And, in many cases the secondary stuff is improving as well.  I do confess that I am a bit worried about the performance of some of our first round players--Cavaco, Sabato for example, so it will be a big year for them.  It is unusual when first round picks are not in the top 20 prospects list.  But, let's hope for big years from both of them so they are on the list for next year.  Keith Law has his top 20 Twins prospects out and that is an interesting read as well.

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    I had to check other rankings to see how this lines up with different perspectives.  MLB.com has Cavacco #11, Urbina #12, Sabato #16, Strotman #17, Soularie #18

    Prospects 1500 has Sabato #10, Moran #11, Urbina #15, Cavaco #16, Soularie #20

    Keith Law has Povich at #14, Urbina #16, Cavaco #17, and Strotman #19. Raya, Soularie and Sabato are on Law's others of note list.

    Gleeman on the Athletic has Strotman #18, Sabato #20, Povich #22, Soularie #23, Raya #25, Moran #26, Urbina #27, Severino #29 and Cavaco #30.  He definitely comes closest to this honorable mention list.  

    It is fascinating to see the different perspectives.  Cavaco has fallen for me and might be at the bottom of honorable mention yet these three lists all have him in the top 20.  Moran being ready to perhaps be a RP for the Twins all year seems to be ranked to low in this honorable mention list.  

    The fact that Sabato is on the lists is no surprise because of his high draft status, but your honorable mention list is a better place for him. 

    Someday I would love to see an analysis of the prospect listers.  What bias do each of them bring to their lists?  I look forward to the TD top 20. 

     

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    2 hours ago, roger said:

    When I saw your headline, Seth, the first thing I thought about turned out to be your opening.  Who in this group will have great summers and be in your Top 20 next year, or even Top 10?

    My memory isn't what it used to be, but I gotta believe that several of these kids would have been Top 20 material back when we started following the minor leagues, wouldn't they Seth?

    The biggest disappointment has to be the two recent first round picks.  But seeing Rosario in this group and not in the Top 20 is more than a surprise to me, hell, its shocking.  Loved your recent work about the two lefties taken high last summer, so more than surprised to find Povich in this group.  Soularie and Raya are likely both Top 20 material, just haven't had the opportunity to get on the field.  Seeing so many exciting prospects in this group tells me the Twins organization is in fantastic shape.  Now if they can just get on Target Field in a couple years, maybe the Twins will start winning again. 

    Yeah, I would say that Player Development's ability to get extra velocity and better plan for pitching puts a lot of these guys above guys from ten years ago, from a prospect standpoint. 

    This is a vote of 11 people... if you recall last month, I finished up my rankings. Personally, I have Raya and Povich much higher... maybe 10 and 12 overall. But I guess I didn't convince our other writers and ballot-filler-outers... 

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    57 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

    I had to check other rankings to see how this lines up with different perspectives.  MLB.com has Cavacco #11, Urbina #12, Sabato #16, Strotman #17, Soularie #18

    Prospects 1500 has Sabato #10, Moran #11, Urbina #15, Cavaco #16, Soularie #20

    Keith Law has Povich at #14, Urbina #16, Cavaco #17, and Strotman #19. Raya, Soularie and Sabato are on Law's others of note list.

    Gleeman on the Athletic has Strotman #18, Sabato #20, Povich #22, Soularie #23, Raya #25, Moran #26, Urbina #27, Severino #29 and Cavaco #30.  He definitely comes closest to this honorable mention list.  

    It is fascinating to see the different perspectives.  Cavaco has fallen for me and might be at the bottom of honorable mention yet these three lists all have him in the top 20.  Moran being ready to perhaps be a RP for the Twins all year seems to be ranked to low in this honorable mention list.  

    The fact that Sabato is on the lists is no surprise because of his high draft status, but your honorable mention list is a better place for him. 

    Someday I would love to see an analysis of the prospect listers.  What bias do each of them bring to their lists?  I look forward to the TD top 20. 

     

    I'll add where these guys ranked on my lists: 

    Raya #10, Povich #12, Rosario #16, Gipson-Long #23, Strotman #24, Sabato #25, Urbina #27, Moran #28, Legumina #29, Cavaco #30, Vallimont #31, Encarnacion-Strand #32, Severino #35, Soularie #36, 

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    28 minutes ago, Seth Stohs said:

    I'll add where these guys ranked on my lists: 

    Raya #10, Povich #12, Rosario #16, Gipson-Long #23, Strotman #24, Sabato #25, Urbina #27, Moran #28, Legumina #29, Cavaco #30, Vallimont #31, Encarnacion-Strand #32, Severino #35, Soularie #36, 

    Thank you.  Do you or the voters look at these lists when you are making your own decisions?  I know you have your own methods of evaluation, but these lists do provide more information.

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    8 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

    Thank you.  Do you or the voters look at these lists when you are making your own decisions?  I know you have your own methods of evaluation, but these lists do provide more information.

    I guess I have my list... then I reach out to the others and ask them to just send me their Top 20 or Top 30. So no, aside from if any of them read my rankings, they wouldn't see any of the others. 

     

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    That honorable mention list is a pretty good one! And I think it's safe to say at least a couple of the names mentioned might already be top 20 if they either hadn't missed out on 2020 or had greater opportunity in 2021. Interesting that Hajjar isn't listed in the honorable mention. Is that an unintentional omission? Or is he in the top 20? If he is, I'd debate that vs Povich.

    I am surprised that Strotman isn't  in the top 20. I have to wonder/ask if it's due to the strength of the top 20, or, is there some recency bias because he looked good in the Ray's system and then struggled after coming to the Twins?

    I don't know if I'm sold on Sabato yet for various reasons. I'm sure a layoff didn't help him. But I was encouraged by his performance after the promotion to CR. But I'd also have him outside the top 20. 

    I also agree with Cavaco outside the top 20. I know he's still very young and has some great tools...and that is part of ranking talent...but except for the first month plus in 2021, he just hasn't really shown anything YET. Hopefully he's 100% healthy and ready to go in 2022. And I don't mean this as a knock on him, but I wonder if there is a mental/emotional factor of growth involved for someone so young. (Seemed like a great kid in his podcast interview).

    I'm excited to see what Severino does next season.

    But I'm with MLR on Raya completely! Not sure I can fully explain the "why", but he was my favorite selection in the 2020 draft. Just "something" about his stuff and potential and attitude that spoke of a HS pitcher that might be a steal. I guess he sorta reminded me of Berrios. My biggest 2021 milb disappointment was him not pitching. I'm super encouraged about his instructional reports. And I may be more excited about seeing what he does this year than almost any of the very young kids in the system.

     

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    13 hours ago, DocBauer said:

    That honorable mention list is a pretty good one! And I think it's safe to say at least a couple of the names mentioned might already be top 20 if they either hadn't missed out on 2020 or had greater opportunity in 2021. Interesting that Hajjar isn't listed in the honorable mention. Is that an unintentional omission? Or is he in the top 20? If he is, I'd debate that vs Povich.

    I am surprised that Strotman isn't  in the top 20. I have to wonder/ask if it's due to the strength of the top 20, or, is there some recency bias because he looked good in the Ray's system and then struggled after coming to the Twins?

    I don't know if I'm sold on Sabato yet for various reasons. I'm sure a layoff didn't help him. But I was encouraged by his performance after the promotion to CR. But I'd also have him outside the top 20. 

    I also agree with Cavaco outside the top 20. I know he's still very young and has some great tools...and that is part of ranking talent...but except for the first month plus in 2021, he just hasn't really shown anything YET. Hopefully he's 100% healthy and ready to go in 2022. And I don't mean this as a knock on him, but I wonder if there is a mental/emotional factor of growth involved for someone so young. (Seemed like a great kid in his podcast interview).

    I'm excited to see what Severino does next season.

    But I'm with MLR on Raya completely! Not sure I can fully explain the "why", but he was my favorite selection in the 2020 draft. Just "something" about his stuff and potential and attitude that spoke of a HS pitcher that might be a steal. I guess he sorta reminded me of Berrios. My biggest 2021 milb disappointment was him not pitching. I'm super encouraged about his instructional reports. And I may be more excited about seeing what he does this year than almost any of the very young kids in the system.

     

    Your comments and others here got me wondering about Strotman.  We know what he did after coming over from Tampa, and it wasn't all that exciting.  But wasn't he coming back from TJ surgery last summer?  If so, wouldn't we expect him to wear down later last summer?  That may be the reason he wasn't all that sharp and maybe we should discount what we saw after he joined the Saints.

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    1 hour ago, roger said:

    Your comments and others here got me wondering about Strotman.  We know what he did after coming over from Tampa, and it wasn't all that exciting.  But wasn't he coming back from TJ surgery last summer?  If so, wouldn't we expect him to wear down later last summer?  That may be the reason he wasn't all that sharp and maybe we should discount what we saw after he joined the Saints.

    You are correct on Strotman. He had TJ and then missed all of 2020. So after basically missing 2yrs he bypassed AA and when straight to AAA where he posted quality numbers but with a little control issue. (Not unexpected all things considered).  In Seth's recent interview with him he spoke about maybe trying too hard to impress his new team, etc. And while that may be true, I also agree he may have been wearing down.

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    Draft them young. A BIG International Signing. Throw them together in a competitive game where everyone wants to be a winner, a star, and you gotta see who succeeds, who listens, who works, and how they adapt.

     

    And then, in this list, you have two names: one who wasn't going to continue to find a 40-man spot for another team because he was being pushed by more talented arms, and one who you just hope will settle down and become a big-leaugue contributor. Those two, Vallimont and Strotman should pretty much be guarantee a chacne to pitch in the majors in 2022 (why Strotman didn't in 2021 is beyond me, giving innings to Albers and others).

     

    But then, again, the Twins seem to have too many names like that on the roster right now...will they shine in 2022 and be long-term Twins, or are they just placesetters: Thorpe, Dobnak (despite his contract), Jax, Stashak, Thielbar, Garza Jr. And waiting in St. Paul: Smeltzer, Coulombe, Sammons, Mason, and any number of minor league free agent signees hoping to take starts away from Balazovic, Sands, Winder and maybe Duran.

     

    Moran will be an interesting watch when spring training happens, as he needed more exposure last August and September but was kept back so we could see Barraclough, Coulombe, Farrell, Law, Minaya, Gibaut (especially him), Vincent, and Albers. There's not a lot of bullpen relief if people go down on the 40-man, unless you look at Thorpe or Jax coming out of the pen, so suspect there will be rotating 40-man chairs as the Twins finally take a look at Cano or Hamilton, amongst so many others. The pain there is you havce to add carefully if you want to keep the guy and he doesn't quite produce, or is forced back to the minors when the injured come back.

     

    Right now, I'm counting 152 names on Twins minor league roster after the jettisons of the Fall. Probably 20-30 or so will be gone by the end of spring training, and the Twins can still add another dozen or so minor league free agents depending on needs in the higher leagues.

     

    Always fun to see these annual lists and look back 3-5-7 years and see who continued in the organization, departed quickly, or are playing elsewhere, still.

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    SHS top Twins '22

    1. Martin 2. Miranda 3. Lewis 4. Balazovic 5. Ryan 6. SWR 7. Duran

    -8. Canterino -9. Petty -10. Winder  -11. Wallner -12. E Rodriguez

    -13.Miller  14. Cavaco 15. Enlow -16. Celestino -17. Sands -18. Julien

    -19. Strotman  -20 Urbina  21-26 ( Steer, Povich , Varland , Sabato , Hajj) 

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    Eduord Julien could vastly improve this time next year, to me, hes one of the more underrated ones.

    I dont really get all the Celestino love, in and around the top 10 or 12, unless he decides to "juice" a la Polanco I dont see him being anything more than a quad A 5th Outfielder type

    Cavaco outside the top 20 is just simply Dumb. It would be like Petty ranking outside the top 20 this time next yr.

    give me a break, Cavaco was drafted that insanely high for a reason.

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