Trade Retrospective: How Did the Twins Do in the Eduardo Escobar Trade?

I agree with Cody, Twins did well on trade. Escobar was going to be a FA after that season. Twins were bad that season. If they get anything from any of those 3 players at the MLB level, it is a positive trade for the Twins. The other 2 may never make the MLB level, but Duran looks good and could be a long term MLB contributor. Twins knew it was going to take time to get any return from trade.

I cannot judge this yet.  Does Duran pitch in the majors?  Does Duran get injured?  Too many unknowns.  Escobar has contributed well so how can we say we won when the trade players still have not sniffed MLB?

Duran needs to pitch in the majors to see how this trade worked out. Escobar was a proven player with multiple skills and has done well in Arizona. He was well-liked by other players, the fans, and produced on the field. Duran is a prospect. While my personal preference is for the Twins to put Jhoan in the 5th SP slot in 2021, he still remains an unknown talent for MLB purposes, whereas we all know that Escobar was a talented player. For now, the trade favors the Diamondbacks but this can turn with the emergence of Duran this coming summer.

The Twins simply were not very good that year. They were not going to be even remotely serious contenders with or without him. The way I I see, they can't loose for having made a trade in a year they were not going to contend. The question is did the acquire anyone who will contribute. If they get an average ML starter ... it's a win. If they get a mid rotation SP it's a win. If Duran is a solid #2SP ... It's a huge win. If we get two average ML starters ... it's a huge win.

If you look back throughout the past decade, they are 4X more players on playoff rosters that are acquired in similar transactions as compared to trading for impact players. Getting something out of players about to be FAs is a huge boost to building a contender in a mid-market. We could have been a little better and enjoyed Eduardo for another couple months. If it turns out we get someone who makes us significantly better for 6 or more years, I will take that path every time. 

Escobar turned down an extension with the Twins. There return was more that generous for a half season rental. 

It depends on if you count the Escobar extension (which was an A+ move by Arizona) - there were reports that the Twins offered Eddie an extension, but he declined, so they traded him. At the time this seemed like an underwhelming deal, but it's been encouraging to see Duran turn into a top 5 prospect. It's still anyone's guess if he pans out, but we needed to get these type of pitching prospects into the system.

I think Maciel's ability to make contact and hold a high average will at least get him to the majors. I'd guess De La Trinidad doesn't make the big leagues.

I always enjoy topics like this, filled with so much speculation. I was, and remain, a fan of Escobar. I really wish we still had him, and that's not a knock on our current roster or those acquired. I'm agreeing with Mike that's it's just too early to tell if anyone actually won the trade.

IIRC, the Twins did offer an extension but it was turned down. Considering he re-upped with Arizona for a very manageable contract, the Twins offer must have been low, or, not good enough to Escobar considering Sano was still the expected 3B and Polanco was coming on etc. Did the Twins receive a good haul in return? Absolutely!

Now, we don't know how good Duran will be. But the guy has the right build and great stuff and results to back it up. (At least at the milb level). I have yet to read a single opinion from anyone that doesn't like him and his potential. And big potential arms are extremely valuable.

As to Maciel and Trinidad, well, we'll see. The Twins system is LOADED pretty good OF talent but not everyone makes it, and there are always trade possibilities. You need 3 really good ones, plus a solid 4th, and sometimes a 5th when talking about depth and even DH possibilities. I believe Celestino is definitely ahead of Maciel. That doesn't mean Maciel doesn't turn out to be quality...or tradeable...as a 4th OF. Maybe Celestino gets moved at some point. Or maybe he takes over for Buxton at some point and we need that backup CF option. (Not saying I predict or want that, but it could happen). Trinidad, I believe, can/has played some CF but projects as a corner OF with a solid skill set. Again, a possible 4th OF option?

Duran is the key piece here. And we should see him at some point in 2021. When and how good he is immediately is impossible to judge at this point. If either of the OF's turn in to decent/solid players, or part of a future trade, it could easily be a "victory" trade for the Twins for sure.

As MajorLeague stated clearly, Duran as a quality ML SP to possible top 2 SP option will give the Twins the win here. But we're at least a year from a decision.

But the Twins were serious contenders in 2019 and 2020, so not sure what

You will have to elaborate. I don't understand the point given he was a free agent at the end of the 2018 season.  Would would we have better with him even if they had resigned him? Sano was signifcantly better offensively than Escobar in 2019 and Escobar was terrible in 2020. I loved Escobar but I don't see how we were hurt by trading him and if Duran pans out it was a significant net gain.

I think still early to tell how they did.  If Duran has decent time with Twins, or can get moved for something of value, then I think it minium it was a wash.  The year we traded Escobar we were going nowhere.  We signed Gonzo to fill Escobar's roll, so really you would need to compare those 2, in my opinion, and the members we got for a true value of the trade, assuming we would have resigned Escobar.  Also, keep in mind Escobar has been playing in offensive ballpark. 

We’ll never know the opportunity cost in terms of playoff wins, but imagine dropping Eduardo Escobar’s 2019 production into 3rd base and moving Sano over to 1B in 2019.

We’ll never know the opportunity cost in terms of playoff wins, but imagine dropping Eduardo Escobar’s 2019 production into 3rd base and moving Sano over to 1B in 2019.

They lost 10-4 / 8-2 & 5-1 so I thinks it's safe to say the opportunity cost of not having Escobar for the 2019 playoffs was zero. 

We’ll never know the opportunity cost in terms of playoff wins, but imagine dropping Eduardo Escobar’s 2019 production into 3rd base and moving Sano over to 1B in 2019.

And not having to sign Donaldson to a contract we will regret. I would rather have Esco and all that money to sign a pitcher that would be far better than Duran especially since the Twins window might be closed before Duran ever throws a pitch in the show.

I discount any production from Escobar after signing his FA contract: you simply can't say that the Twins would have gotten any of that. Maybe AZ signs him. Maybe another team signs him. Maybe to keep him the Twins have to add 2-3M per year. It's too speculative. They had half a season left of control and flipped him for a guy who projects to be a top half of the rotation starter. That's really good value.

De La Trinidad looks like minor league depth at this point, but Maciel might be something more. But I agree: really hard to evaluate minor league guys who didn't get to play.

Duran is the real piece for the Twins, and he's looking on track to pitch for the team in 2021 or 2022. The fastball splitter combo is an effective one and if his curve can be a solid third offering then he's got a pitch mix that can allow him to be an excellent starter. The stuff is there, the build looks right to stay healthy and strong. He keeps the ball in the park and the walks aren't too bad, so if he can keep this level of control at the MLB level he'll be fine. He definitely has the stuff to finish off hitters.

I like this trade for the Twins.