Part 6: Seth's Top 30 Twins Pitching Prospects (1-5)

A rotation for the present and future with the caveat of if healthy

Nicely done and Canterino was a surprise - an excellent ending to the pitching prospect novel - surprises, good stories, some question marks and then a twist for the ending.

I do hope that we see most of your top five this year.  I have been hoping for Balazovic for a while and the injuries are the big unknowns in all their paths.  Richardson would not be this high for me.   I would slide him back a few places until I see some of the potential displayed.

Thanks Seth

I feel the Twins should use this year as a testing grounds for these pitchers.  Why waste their bullets in St. Paul when we can see how they fare up here.  I would expect at least Winder to join Ryan in the Twins rotation, with some of the rest not far behind.  Until the last week of spring training you will not learn much, unless these pitchers start the game against the other major league players (on the road).  I have high hopes for most of the top 5, with Woods-Richardson being the one that I would not have in the top 5 yet.  

I really wish these guys were "allowed" to pitch more than 100 innnings.  Guaranteed, everyone of them threw over 150 pitches their Jr year in high school(including summer ball.)    I agree with Bert....let them pitch!

That is an impressive list.  They really need to figure out what they have in these guys this year.  They have about 6 guys they might need room on the 40 man for next year in Canterino, Varland, Gipson-Long as well as Wallner, Steer, and Jullien.  Some of those guys need to make it so there is more room on the 40 man.  If they can't then maybe they get dropped not sure but it is time for pipeline to show it is working.

Very excited about all of these guys and honestly don't even care about the order.

Seth, is Canterino a potential number one in your mind?  I have not seen him pitch after the elbow problems.  Is the elbow anything to worry about. 

Excellent article as always.  Well researched and thought out.  I would think Ryan is going to have to make an impact this year if he is going to be age 26.  That's in that range to prove it.  I wish there would have been more of these guys pitching last year when the team was rotten.  That way we may have had a little glimpse at what we have.  I hope the FO adds a good veteran or two to the pitching staff.  Because all there is now is a wing and a prayer.  As currently constructed this is NOT a major league pitching staff

Excellent series Seth. I liked seeing the interviews with your articles. Well done, Seth. Well done. 

I think 22' Canterino is rather like 21' Ober; missing innings but having the stuff and ability to pitch. I was impressed with the Twins front office in trusting Ober. I'm anticipating the same with Canterino.

Will second the above comments thanking you for doing this, Seth.

Will also admit that I was a bit surprised to see Canterino at #1.  But after thinking about what he has accomplished when pitching, understand he may have the best chance of all of these to become that true ACE.

Personally, would put Winder higher on this list.  On the other hand, see there are arguments for each of the four above him to be there.  

Is this the best Top 5 Twins pitching prospects you can recall?  Sure seems like it to me.

1 hour ago, Seth Stohs said:

The elbow is always something to worry about, and it will likely remain so... but yes, when healthy, I do think he can be a #1/2. 

So Seth just curious why you have Duran @6 but Canterino @1?

Both are the only 2 with top of the rotation stuff, both have limited inning with injury concerns but are dominate and have big fastballs.  Both 24 but Duran did it at AAA and Caterino at A+.  
 

I am on the Winder bandwagon, adding to that fastball has changed his game.  He gets a little more on one of his secondary pitches something Wes Johnson may be able to do. he is a guy who reminds me a bit of Bieber.  

I probably would have done the order differently...and I admit I really have trouble knowing exactly how to rank Joe Ryan who is rookie-eligible, but also sort of graduated. So, I'll leave Ryan where he is?

the other 4 guys (all of whom I really like), I probably go Balazovic, Winder, Canterino, Woods-Richardson...and then immediately feel bad for not ranking woods-richardson high enough. I think W-R got messed up by the Olympics and not pitching in japan and having all that time off, so I don't take his 2021 all that seriously as an indicator of his real ability. I think he's a terrific pitcher and it's amazing to me that some people are treating him almost as a throw-in with Martin in the Berrios deal.

It's a nice top five and stronger than anything we've had in some time. I worry about the elbow and shoulder injuries and I worry that the lockout may impact development on guys that need normal years. these guys got skipped a year of competitive baseball in 2020, had a still semi-goofy COVID year, and now have the lockout following all of that. UGH.

Overall the top of the list looks good.  The main question is how many innings they can pitch in the coming seasons.  All have been limited for various reasons and the higher pitch load may affect their ability to stay as starters.  I think some will make moves to pen as they shake out who will be the best starters. 

3 hours ago, Seth Stohs said:

Oof... that is a good question... did I even have Duran at 6, or was he at 8?! But that's a very fair question. I think that Canterino's chances of being a starter are much better. I think that's a big part of it. But you're right in all your points. 

I'll also add this... I think the 1 through 8 pitchers are all pretty interchangeable... and depending on opinion or having seen some of them or whatever, a solid argument could be made for any rankings of those guys... 

It's crazy that 8 guys are interchangeable in terms of making a case for their rank in the organization but I have to agree.  I was already really excited to watch Milb baseball this year and this series has elevated my interest.  Thanks Seth!  Great series.

In terms of ceiling I am thinking Duran / Canterino / Balazovic / Ryan but they would be reversed in terms of probability of reaching their ceiling.  Does this seem accurate in your opinion?

4 hours ago, Seth Stohs said:

Yeah, I enjoy doing those interviews too... Get first-hand what they throw, their background, their makeup. 

In addition, for those that don't know... clicking on the player links will bring you to a list of all Twins Daily articles they've been tagged in. So clicking on those can get you a lot more information on a player too. 

Great tip. I did not know that. Thanks.

It's taken management a few years but it finally looks like we have a bunch of homegrown talent getting ready to get their cup of coffee. Its going to fun to watch the next three years how these players progress. The twins future looks bright! 

Thanks Seth for the list. 

Let’s just hope that several of these pitchers can be effective starters and that at least one of them is a 1 or 2 starter. Twins haven’t had that for awhile, maybe since Liriano.

Can't thank you enough Seth for these tremendous lists! Just great work and great thought and detail. (Really like the split of pitchers and position players). 

I was briefly surprised as to Canterino at #1, but as I thought about it, you're right. His stuff and ceiling is as good or better than anyone here. I do think I would have Duran higher based on similar stuff and ceiling. Can't "penalize" him for limited IP but then dismiss Canterino for the same. But I absolutely agree you could really arrange the top 8-10 in just about any order and you wouldn't be wrong.

I think the mound is going to be interesting and tantalizing over the next couple of years. Here's hoping for good health in 2022 and a sense of "normalcy" so all these guys can develop and move forward.

The Twins don't need Pitching PROSPECTS.  They need PITCHERS.  I'm so tired of talking about prospects while the Twins have let available PITCHERS go to other teams because they spend their wad on the likes of Donaldson.  Really?  Talk to us when the Twins get some PITCHERS.  How many MORE seasons will this glaring problem exist before they figure it out? #insanity 

38 minutes ago, Murph said:

How many MORE seasons will this glaring problem exist before they figure it out? #insanity 

Almost certainly zero. Almost all of these guys (probably not Canterino, but maybe him too?) will have a chance to at least get their feet wet in the majors this year, and if the likes of Ober and Ryan are any indication then there's a good chance that most or all of them will prove to have a little MLB stickiness about them.

I'm a BIG Canterino guy.  I'm excited for all he brings to the table.  His energy is phenomenal.  Especially on his off days.  He's out there joking and playing around with the boys.  He amps them up and seems to always be positive.  Those are intangibles I love to see in top tier talent.  Royce Lewis shares the same type of energy, if not more.

All that said, it's hard to deny Joe Ryan's resume right now.  Not complaining.  I love it.  Baseball talk in January-February during a lockout???  We need this.

On 1/12/2022 at 7:34 AM, beckmt said:

I feel the Twins should use this year as a testing grounds for these pitchers.  Why waste their bullets in St. Paul when we can see how they fare up here.  I would expect at least Winder to join Ryan in the Twins rotation, with some of the rest not far behind.  Until the last week of spring training you will not learn much, unless these pitchers start the game against the other major league players (on the road).  I have high hopes for most of the top 5, with Woods-Richardson being the one that I would not have in the top 5 yet.  

Perhaps Falvine feel the same way - their inactivity in the free-agent market might be an indicator. 

I like Canterino, and it's hard to argue with his numbers to this point. That said, I think he's got significantly more reliever risk than the other guys in this group. His mechanics and injury history don't scream starting pitcher to me.

My ranking of this group, from #5 to # 1, would be Ryan, Canterino, Winder, Balazovic, and Woods Richardson.

On 1/12/2022 at 11:12 AM, roger said:

Will second the above comments thanking you for doing this, Seth.

Will also admit that I was a bit surprised to see Canterino at #1.  But after thinking about what he has accomplished when pitching, understand he may have the best chance of all of these to become that true ACE.

Personally, would put Winder higher on this list.  On the other hand, see there are arguments for each of the four above him to be there.  

Is this the best Top 5 Twins pitching prospects you can recall?  Sure seems like it to me.

I won't speak for Seth directly, but as someone who has been following the Twins milb teams/prospects since my teens, the early-mid 80's had a group of Gasser, Bumgarner, Nivens, Banks, Sontag, Newman and Pittman that was highly regarded and expected to give the Twins real hope.

Alas, only Banks ever did much of anything, and it wasn't a lot. Newman I belive had some success as a coach.

By no means does that mean this group won't be outstanding, just offering up a list that at one time was probably comparable.