Week in Review: Small Victories

I don't see Rooker or Jax being part of the team after Spring Training next year.  Miranda has passed Rooker as a prospect and someone needs to step up on the mound.    Jake Cave continues to prove he does not belong and yet I do not trust the brains to see that. 

I just do not know what to think about 2022

I agree with mikelink that Cave hasn't done anything to help his case to remain on the team for next season.  I do think the Twins will give Rooker more chances to figure out major league pitching.  Cruz was 28 when he took off.  Ibanez was 29 if you remember him.  Max gives up more homers per 9 then Blylevin ever could. I am beginning to think its bullpen or bust for him.  But I suspect they will give him starting chances into next year.  The thing that is most exciting to me about Ober is his consistency and control. Almost a Radke clone this way.  That's who I think of with his results.  My concern with Ryan is secondary pitches.  He will need them.  And Cleveland is close to us in runs scored and we are 6th.  So they are more of an average offense Nick.  But I am so much more optimistic going into the offseason.  I guess part if it is because how well They put together a revamped bullpen on the fly and its been successful.  That makes our big holes going into the offseason, 1.  Extend or trade Buxton. 2. SS 3. 2 starting pitchers.  Maybe a third cause you can never have too much pitching.

I love the line about Buxton taking "center stage".  Great pun.    

As for all of the bright spots as we close out, they offer some hope but at the same time leave a lot of questions.  I really don't see a lot of proven commodities going into '22.  Lots of potential, lots of holes, and lots of questions.  Maybe lots of reclamation projects.  Or free agents.   And I can't get out of my mind the CBA looming out there, and the fact that the team has lost a ton of money the last two years.  Will the brass want to soften some of those losses?  We all seem to think there is a payroll figure out there that the team will go with, yet is it really there?  If the CBA costs a certain amount more, does that affect our number?  All of that will determine the FA signings (or lack of them).  I can see a scenario where what you see today will be the vast majority of the roster come April.  If, of course, there is an April.  Could be locked out.  Or not.  Lots of questions; very few answers.  Stay tuned, as it will be an interesting winter.  

Not seeing the Twins play this year, I don’t have a clue how well Gordon played when in center?  Is he an adequate backup?  Could he be a solid starter if Buxton is injured or traded?  

Expect the FO will go into the offseason planning to compete in 2023 and hoping that if lots goes right, they may surprise next year.  Gordon’s role in the middle infield and center will be a key decision in that process.

will they bring in a shortstop?  Who is their #1 backup in center, Gordon or Celestino?  Lots of questions?

Where do we start? I find the offense offensive. 15 K's and 18 LOB yesterday. When will they quit swinging at balls off the plate? When will they quit swinging for the fences? When will the manager settle on a permanent lineup and play it everyday? Too much dead weight for this team to make a serious run at anything but mediocrity. Kepler, Sano, Rooker, Cave, Jeffers, Astudillo, can't hit. Donaldson is all but washed up. They have three 2nd basemen in Arraez, Polanco, and Gordon. No shortstop going into next year. Buxton and Garver who only play part-time. Polanco might get to 600 AB's this year. He's the only starter that even came close to playing full-time. Without wholesale changes the 2022 Team is destined for small victories, maybe 2 a week.

2 hours ago, roger said:

Not seeing the Twins play this year, I don’t have a clue how well Gordon played when in center?  Is he an adequate backup?  Could he be a solid starter if Buxton is injured or traded?  

Expect the FO will go into the offseason planning to compete in 2023 and hoping that if lots goes right, they may surprise next year.  Gordon’s role in the middle infield and center will be a key decision in that process.

will they bring in a shortstop?  Who is their #1 backup in center, Gordon or Celestino?  Lots of questions?

Solid starter, no. His benefit is versatility. He's a competent defender in all three outfield spots, not on the level of Buxton, Kepler or even Celestino. 

Re Gordon: if the FO has to make a choice between Gordon and Astudillo as the utility guy, that's a no brainer. I have no doubt Gordon is going to work hard and improve.  

2 hours ago, rv78 said:

Where do we start? I find the offense offensive. 15 K's and 18 LOB yesterday. When will they quit swinging at balls off the plate? When will they quit swinging for the fences? When will the manager settle on a permanent lineup and play it everyday? Too much dead weight for this team to make a serious run at anything but mediocrity. Kepler, Sano, Rooker, Cave, Jeffers, Astudillo, can't hit. Donaldson is all but washed up. They have three 2nd basemen in Arraez, Polanco, and Gordon. No shortstop going into next year. Buxton and Garver who only play part-time. Polanco might get to 600 AB's this year. He's the only starter that even came close to playing full-time. Without wholesale changes the 2022 Team is destined for small victories, maybe 2 a week.

Couldn't have said it better myself.  The one stat (I hate analytics) I look at the most for an offense is the one they used to use regularly: percentage of games scoring 3 runs or less, and percentage scoring 4 runs or more.   Well, as of yesterday, we have scored 3 runs or less in 48% of our games this season; 75 out of 156.  Rocco has made it crystal clear as to his philosophy; he believes giving up an out for a base (sacrifice) is against his analytics.  So is the hit and run.  So is bunting for base hits; apparently they aren't successful enough of the time.  Even stolen bases result in an out too much of a percentage of the time for him, so we are, what?  14th in the American League in stolen bases?  51 in 156 games.  6 sacrifice bunts (non pitcher) all year, etc. etc.   When we only take the bases hits and home runs give us, we manufacture nothing.  And nothing is what we get 48% of the time.  You are right, we have one player locked in to the lineup next year.  Every other player is either moved around too much, or might be trade bait before next April.  And the answer to your question about the line up is:  when pigs fly.......or when Rocco leaves, whichever comes first.  It is simply who he is (or who his computer is).  And Falvine likes it that way, so I am betting on the pigs.  

It's interesting how a season can finish up. Two months ago we were talking about how the Twins needed to completely overhaul the entire pitching staff, might need 4 new starters and major reinforcements in the bullpen. Now? Neither the rotation nor the bullpen looks nearly as dire.

Ober & Ryan look like guys who can be counted on for next year. Pineda is also a guy that likes it here, is well-liked by the team and could be signed at a reasonable rate for next year. (1 year at $6M? 2 for $12M with bonuses?) Yes, you shouldn't go into a season counting on Pineda to be healthy the full year...but as a guy to pitch effectively and hold the line to keep from rushing prospects in before they're really ready? He makes a lot of sense.

The same is on the bullpen: Duffey seems to have found his form again, Alcala has been excellent in the second half of the season, Thielbar has been terrific and the peripherals back up the gaudy W-L record, and if Taylor Rogers is back...maybe that's the core of a solid bullpen that gets augmented by a couple of internal options (Moran, Stashak, Coloumbe) and only needs 1-2 FA signings (best RH power arm they can find?) instead of needed a total overhaul. The offseason overhaul maybe already happening?

I hope they can work out a deal with Buxton in the offseason. He's got star power, he wants to be here...and it's a bet worth taking. The last week or so of the season won't change my mind on this, even if he went 0-30.

10 hours ago, Mark G said:

Couldn't have said it better myself.  The one stat (I hate analytics) I look at the most for an offense is the one they used to use regularly: percentage of games scoring 3 runs or less, and percentage scoring 4 runs or more.   Well, as of yesterday, we have scored 3 runs or less in 48% of our games this season; 75 out of 156.  Rocco has made it crystal clear as to his philosophy; he believes giving up an out for a base (sacrifice) is against his analytics.  So is the hit and run.  So is bunting for base hits; apparently they aren't successful enough of the time.  Even stolen bases result in an out too much of a percentage of the time for him, so we are, what?  14th in the American League in stolen bases?  51 in 156 games.  6 sacrifice bunts (non pitcher) all year, etc. etc.   When we only take the bases hits and home runs give us, we manufacture nothing.  And nothing is what we get 48% of the time.  You are right, we have one player locked in to the lineup next year.  Every other player is either moved around too much, or might be trade bait before next April.  And the answer to your question about the line up is:  when pigs fly.......or when Rocco leaves, whichever comes first.  It is simply who he is (or who his computer is).  And Falvine likes it that way, so I am betting on the pigs.  

Not a fan of how he manages, but I think you put too much blame on Rocco.  He probably manages the way his bosses want him to. 

1 hour ago, yeahyabetcha said:

Not a fan of how he manages, but I think you put too much blame on Rocco.  He probably manages the way his bosses want him to. 

Yea, they brought him in because he is an analytics guy, so it may very well start at the top.