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In an alternate universe, the Twins very well could've been matched with Gray from the very start. They held the No. 4 overall pick in the 2013 draft, with a clear need for pitching, and he was considered the top college arm after Stanford's Mark Appel, who went to Houston first overall. The Twins had deeply scouted their eventual pick, prep pitcher Kohl Stewart (who turned out to be a disastrous bust). But if the University of Oklahoma star Gray hadn't been claimed one spot ahead of Minnesota, by the Rockies at No. 3, would the Twins have opted for the far less risky commodity?
Alas, we will never know. But now the Twins have an opportunity to reunite with the pitcher they just missed. As for Gray, his journey with the Rockies could best be described as ... rocky.
Jon Gray's Tenure in Colorado
The top draft pick established himself accordingly in the minors, and emerged as a consensus top-20 prospect after dominating the low minors. He moved quickly to the majors and finished sixth in Rookie of the Year voting.
His performance in that rookie season of 2016 – 168 IP, 4.61 ERA, 3.60 FIP, 9.9 K/9, 1.26 WHIP – would basically set the benchmark for Gray. He was more or less that same guy throughout his time with the Rockies, with some high points and low points mixed in. He completes his run in Colorado with a 4.59 ERA and 3.91 FIP, displaying the gap one expects from a pitcher in Coors.
While we all know the mile-high environment suppresses pitching results, Gray has failed to break through on any merit. He's never posted an ERA lower than 3.67, and he has a 4.19 FIP over the past four seasons. His year-to-year performance places him firmly in the "mid-rotation starter" category, which helps explain why Colorado didn't want to commit for $18.4 million. Gray likely would've accepted the QO, if offered. Instead he'll turn to the open market for a longer-term deal.
The Rockies reportedly reached out with an extension offer before season's end, but were rejected. Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post posited that Gray "is likely seeking a three- or four-year deal at about $9 million-$10 million a season." That's right in Minnesota's wheelhouse, for their second rotation addition if not their first. Is Gray worthy of an intense pursuit?
3 Things to Know About Jon Gray
He's durable. But not super durable.
Gray has mostly avoided arm injuries throughout his professional career, despite hurling a fastball in the mid-90s plus a consistently heavy dose of sliders. He did miss a bit of time with an elbow flexor injury this past June, though he returned without issue.
Gray ended up throwing 149 innings this year, which is almost exactly what he averaged from 2016 through 2019. He's never thrown more than 173 innings in a season but he's also never missed more than a handful of starts in a season, save for 2017 when a stress fracture in his foot cost him two months.
In Colorado, Gray has mostly been treated as a five-and-fly type, pitching five or at most six innings before giving way to the bullpen. Some might say that fits the Twins' style of management. I'd argue its more reflective of the sport's evolution at large, but alas, it adds to the sense of alignment.
He gets strikeouts, but doesn't make people chase.
Gray has averaged more than a strikeout per inning in every full season he's pitched, including 2021 where he averaged 9.5 K/9. However, he did so this year with a chase rate ranking in the 5th percentile of all major-leaguers. O-Swing % represents the percentage of pitches where a batter swings outside the zone, and in this category Gray's 25.8% mark in 2021 would've ranked 29th out of 35 pitchers who pitched for the Twins this year, surpassing only Beau Burrows, Shaun Anderson, Kyle Barraclough, Andrew Albers, Edgar Garcia, Brandon Waddell and Willians Astudillo. Yeesh.
The latest season was no outlier. Since his debut in 2015, Gray ranks 54th out of 54 pitchers (800+ IP) in chase rate.
It's impressive Gray has been able to find relative success despite this critical shortcoming. But it also speaks to a potential opportunity to level-up. If Gray could make more batters chase out of the zone, he'd likely cut down on his mediocre walk rates, increase his already-good strikeout rates, and unlock greater overall efficiency.
Undoubtedly his coaches in Colorado were working on this fairly obvious fix, but maybe a new voice helps him turn a corner — perhaps via increased usage of the changeup and curveball, which have generated his highest chase rates this year despite being his least-used offerings.
He's one of the youngest starting pitchers in free agency.
By nature, free agents tend to be past 30, and sometimes well past 30, because it takes six-plus years to reach that point. But Gray's reaching the open market on the early side, as a collegiate top draft pick who was fast-tracked to the big leagues by age 23. He just wrapped up his age-29 season and turned 30 a few days ago on November 5th.
Given his relative lack of career earnings (he's banked about $16 million total up to this point), Gray may value the security of a longer-term deal at a reasonable sum, which holds appeal for teams given his age. In this respect, and also because he won't cost a draft pick to sign, Gray feels like a good fit for the Twins with their stuck-in-between status of contending and rebuilding. He could be a real difference-maker in 2022 but also '23 and '24.
Jon Gray and the Twins
An important thing to recognize about free agency is that you're not paying for what someone has done, you're paying for what they are going to do. No one can predict the future, obviously, but there are numerous indicators and signs. It's foolish to treat history as the only impactful one.
Teams (including the Twins) didn't fixate on the past when they went hard after Zack Wheeler a couple years ago in free agency, despite his unspectacular career numbers (3.77 ERA, 3.71 FIP, 1.29 WHIP, 100 ERA+). The Phillies ultimately won out, signing Wheeler to a $118 million contract, and they've been richly rewarded as he's been one of the best pitchers in baseball since, posting a 2.82 ERA in two ultra-durable seasons.
Now, I'm not saying Gray is anywhere close to the same as Wheeler, whose flaws were less readily apparent and his upside more so. Because of that, he won't get a deal anywhere near that same range. But there will be plenty of teams intrigued by his seemingly unscratched potential, and it would be no surprise if a modest bidding war breaks out. In the Offseason Handbook we projected a $10 million yearly salary, figuring he'd land a deal in the 3 years, $30M range, which jibes with what the Denver Post projected he would get. However, it would come as no shock at all if his eventual price tag climbs considerably higher. Ricky Nolasco territory (4 years, $49M) seems achievable.
Would the Twins go that high? Should they? Are they even a destination of interest to Gray, whose own preferences will ultimately play a pivotal role in where he lands?
It's hard to say. But what's clear is that Twins fans should be paying close attention to him, because there's little doubt Minnesota will be in the running. And despite expectations that this offseason would crawl its way to an early stop with a lockout looming, LA's signing of Andrew Heaney on Monday throws this presumption into doubt.
Teams are out here looking to score early values on the market. If the Twins are serious about Gray, they'd be wise to make their intentions known quickly (if they haven't already).
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