Ranking the Trade Value of the Minnesota Twins' 7 Impending Free Agents

The Twins will do everything they can to unload Happ and Colome.  Depending on where they are at in the standings at the deadline they both could end up DFA's as well.  Shoemaker is one of the worst pitchers in MLB there is no trade value left.  He will be DFA'd when the Twins are ready to bring another young arm up.

I think it is going to be hard to find a taker for Simmons unless his bat heats up.  He just is not a difference maker for most teams.

It is Pineda and Cruz that have the most value and Cruz only fits for a few teams.  Honestly they could look to trade Polanco, or Arraez as they have 2nd base depth in the system and one of those guys could get us something we need.  Maybe Berrios but i doubt they find a deal that makes them willing to trade him.

Hopefully the farm can produce players that can help us in 2022.

Pitching always rules at the deadline and probably more so this year.  Therefore, I would think Pineda has the most value especially if a playoff team loses a top SP and Pineda would get playoff starts. Happ would appeal to a team in a tight race if he regains something close to his usual form.  They guy that could really jump in value is Robles.  He needs to get a better handle on his command between now and the deadline.  If so, he might bring as much or more than Cruz who is going to have limited suitors.

Simmons is only going to have significant value if the right team has an injury or two.  That is not a reach this year.  Dman makes a good point about 2B.  They could make Polono or Arraez available and not hurt the team.  I am really pulling for Gordon to sustain his recent success.  It would be fun to have a base stealer besides Buxton and it would be like finding a good player out of nowhere given his mediocre play up to this year.

They are going to move every pending free agent they can.  The real question will be if they trade Berrios and/or Buxton or perhaps a 2B.

I understand where you're coming from here, but Cruz simply isn't in demand.  I think Pineda, barring injury here, is the prime trade value,  Cruz' value is more in line with the relievers if the Twins donate some money.  I know, it's a ridiculous thought, but I just don't see a buyer.  Colome and Robles are live arms.

Padres : Byron Buxton and Jose Berrios

Twins : CJ Abrams, Justin Lange, Robert Hassell, Reggie Lawson, Anderson Espinoza

Padres already are all in. They double down pairing Buxton with Tatis and bolstering the rotation with Berrios.

Yankees : Max Kepler, Michael Pineda

Twins : Luis Medina, Oswald Pereza, TJ Sikkema

Yankees get the left handed bat they desperately need and a capable centerfielder under team control, while staying under the luxury tax. Beef the rotation with a familiar arm they have already been linked to having interest.

Get what you can for the other impending free agents, shop Rogers around and see if you get any bites. 

I wonder how much more in return we would get for Buxton and Berrios trading them next month vs over the winter? 
Is it significant? Same question for Rogers.

I wonder how the impending negotiations and the strike potential of 2022 plays into trade decisions?
Will there be a normal season? Does the FO hedge there bet against this and go rebuild for 2023/24?

I wonder if Pohlad gets squishy, and insists on a financial purge considering this years results and next years potential partial/compromised season. I am guessing the Donaldson contract is in his crosshairs. 

 

22 minutes ago, Tim said:

Padres : Byron Buxton and Jose Berrios

Twins : CJ Abrams, Justin Lange, Robert Hassell, Reggie Lawson, Anderson Espinoza

Padres already are all in. They double down pairing Buxton with Tatis and bolstering the rotation with Berrios.

Yankees : Max Kepler, Michael Pineda

Twins : Luis Medina, Oswald Pereza, TJ Sikkema

Yankees get the left handed bat they desperately need and a capable centerfielder under team control, while staying under the luxury tax. Beef the rotation with a familiar arm they have already been linked to having interest.

 

Get what you can for the other impending free agents, shop Rogers around and see if you get any bites. 

That would be a phenomenal trade for the Twins but San Diego is not giving up that much for 1 1/2 years of control.  They made a bunch of moves but generally kept their top prospects while getting guys with more control than Berrios/Buxton.  The Trade Simulator shows Abrahams alone has equivalent value to Buxton and Berrios combined.  That said, it would be great to put together a trade for a top SS prospect.

Just now, In My La Z boy said:

I wonder how much more in return we would get for Buxton and Berrios trading them next month vs over the winter? 
Is it significant? Same question for Rogers.

I wonder how the impending negotiations and the strike potential of 2022 plays into trade decisions?
Will there be a normal season? Does the FO hedge there bet against this and go rebuild for 2023/24?

I wonder if Pohlad gets squishy, and insists on a financial purge considering this years results and next years potential partial/compromised season. I am guessing the Donaldson contract is in his crosshairs. 

 

If we were a contender... would you pay more to have a top player for the rest of this year vs just next year when as we all know a team might not live up to it's potential.

Let's face it: the pending free agents are not going to get much in return, precisely because they are pending free agents.  We need to start looking to lock up players who will be free agents in the next year or two, (Berrios , Buxton, and Duffey come to mind) or trade them now while they still have enough team control to get something in return.  Tim has the right idea when it comes to packaging players and maximizing their value.  Other scenarios as well could be drawn up, but the point is the same; don't wait for players to become "pending free agents" before signing or trading them.  And don't be afraid to package players and demand something in return other than A and AA hopefuls.

37 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

That would be a phenomenal trade for the Twins but San Diego is not giving up that much for 1 1/2 years of control.  They made a bunch of moves but generally kept their top prospects while getting guys with more control than Berrios/Buxton.  The Trade Simulator shows Abrahams alone has equivalent value to Buxton and Berrios combined.  That said, it would be great to put together a trade for a top SS prospect.

I think the simulator is nice for offseason trades but the formula seems to be off on deadline deals.. Buxton's value is all potential and what he can do if he is fully healthy. That alone, your looking at a top 5 player in baseball... Pair that with the concept of him with Tatis.. I think he has a little more value than the simulator accounts for.. I believe hes closer to 50 million in value.....   I think there's a similar element with Berrios in that a team gets caught up in his potential and what he could be, vs what we all know he is... Think the Marcus Stroman trade, but a little more value. Range of 35-40mil probably.

2 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Buxton is not a top five player in baseball. He's great, but no. 

Pineda had the most value, by far. Then the relief pitchers.

um did you see the first 5 weeks of the year when Buxton was healthy. Id argue he was the best player in baseball

3 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Sure did. 5 weeks of greatness, followed by another trip to the DL, does not cancel out years of data on him and others. 

years of data?? I don't think this is a case of he is what he is... unless your just saying hes injury prone. sure...  What I initially said, in my first post, was when he is healthy, he is a top 5 player in baseball. Advanced metrics back that up as well, overwhelmingly... He's 27, going into his physical prime, the best is yet to come with Buxton.

We'll have very little to none interest in this group of players. Only players I see any interest drawn is Simmons and Cruz. I don't see us getting any worthwhile trades from them but I see us absolutely and miserably tank as the Twinkies of old.

We'll probably have to DFA most of them to reduce payroll. Speaking of reducing payroll we'll need to talk about dumping Donaldson's salary if we can find suiter.

Many talk about trading those under contract and those whose arbitration will soon be up. This saddens me greatly, from a highly ranked team optimistic of taking advantage many great deals to a tanking team that will give away their great players at discount. And what are we going to do with the flood of prospects that will come in? We've already lost very good prospects in Baddo, Chalmers and Wells to the Rule 5. How many more better prospects will we lose to teams with better records.

We are digging a hole so deep that we can't see the light. I don't blame the players, I blame the management. Their missed opportunities, wrong mindsets and inability to find and initiate good trades that'd take us to the next level. I don't recommend letting go our key players, I recommend letting go our GM

4 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

Pitching always rules at the deadline and probably more so this year.  Therefore, I would think Pineda has the most value especially if a playoff team loses a top SP and Pineda would get playoff starts. Happ would appeal to a team in a tight race if he regains something close to his usual form.  They guy that could really jump in value is Robles.  He needs to get a better handle on his command between now and the deadline.  If so, he might bring as much or more than Cruz who is going to have limited suitors.

Simmons is only going to have significant value if the right team has an injury or two.  That is not a reach this year.  Dman makes a good point about 2B.  They could make Polono or Arraez available and not hurt the team.  I am really pulling for Gordon to sustain his recent success.  It would be fun to have a base stealer besides Buxton and it would be like finding a good player out of nowhere given his mediocre play up to this year.

They are going to move every pending free agent they can.  The real question will be if they trade Berrios and/or Buxton or perhaps a 2B.

Agree with all of this - I also think Pineda is the biggest trade chip, with Arraez/Polanco being dark horse options as well. Cruz is the obvious offensive piece.

Would love it if the Twins could somehow find a way to offload Donaldson.

2 hours ago, Tim said:

years of data?? I don't think this is a case of he is what he is... unless your just saying hes injury prone. sure...  What I initially said, in my first post, was when he is healthy, he is a top 5 player in baseball. Advanced metrics back that up as well, overwhelmingly... He's 27, going into his physical prime, the best is yet to come with Buxton.

I am assuming Mike means that Buxton was a top 5 player for 5 weeks.  It's hard to imaging teams are going to value him based on those 5 weeks without considering his level of play for the past 5 years.  It would be or will be interesting to see how Buxton is valued if a trade comes to fruition.  However, I would have to believe his value will be quite high if he returns to something close to his level of play before he was injured.  Someone might just take a chance he will stay healthy the next year plus.  It would be great if the return was a good SS prospect.  It would be fantastic if they could get Abrams so I applaud the idea.

I am with Bighat on Donaldson even though I have always thought very highly of him.  This team needs a retooling beyond just this year.  It would be ideal for him to get hot and get moved.  Add an asset or two by trading him and make room for Miranda.

32 minutes ago, bighat said:

Would love it if the Twins could somehow find a way to offload Donaldson.

Donaldson would probably love it too! Can't imagine he is interested at all in being part of a rebuild, or whatever the Twins are doing. 

None of those listed  bring back anything that moves the needle.

To get something good, you have to give something good.

If we are serious about improving the future of the the team, we have to move Buxton and Berrios.

They are GONE in 1.5 years. Unless you think we are going to win the WS next year (we are not) then you HAVE to move them for value NOW.

Frankly, I'd also try to sell high on Rodgers for the right price as well, because he will be more expensive next year and then gone in FA.

I'd actually keep Palanco, Kepler, and Arrez because they could be better next year, are under control, and we'd  be selling low right now.

If we are smart, we do a minny rebuild in minnesota... now targeting the widow of Duran, Larnach, Jeffers, Krilloff, Lewis, our top 5 pick (hopefully an elite pitcher from college), Miranda... etc.

Suck it up and trade anyone of value that won't be here in 3 years anyway!

Oh, I didn't mention Sano, because he is worthless to us AND any other team.

He will be on our MLB roster through next year due to money owed on his contract (then we can eat his 2023 2+ million buy out), but that doesn't mean that anyone has to waste a solitary brain cell projecting his future from here on out.

Huascar Ynoa for Jaime Garcia. A savvy team can get something for nothing.  Seven expiring contracts. If one trade pans out that is a player for nothing. It well may be the player that comes back for the worst player rather than the best player

17 hours ago, Tim said:

years of data?? I don't think this is a case of he is what he is... unless your just saying hes injury prone. sure...  What I initially said, in my first post, was when he is healthy, he is a top 5 player in baseball. Advanced metrics back that up as well, overwhelmingly... He's 27, going into his physical prime, the best is yet to come with Buxton.

Years of data shows that injured players are more likely to be injured again.  History does have the bad habit of repeating itself. There is little evidence to counter the notion Buxton will be what he has been.  That he is entering his "prime" is not going to change his pattern of injuries.