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  • Randy Dobnak Is Not a Reliever


    Cody Christie

    Randy Dobnak had a great spring, but numbers during the Grapefruit League can be deceiving. So far in 2021, there have been some struggles and maybe it’s time to realize that Dobnak is not a reliever.

    Image courtesy of © Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports

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    Entering the offseason, it seemed likely for Dobnak to be penciled into the back end of the Twins’ starting rotation. Minnesota had three pitchers slated to begin the year as starters and Dobnak seemed to be at least guaranteed a shot at the fifth rotational spot. That plan was altered after the club signed J.A. Happ and Matt Shoemaker.

    Then the question was raised about whether Dobnak should be pitching out of the bullpen or be sent to the alternate site to continue to be stretched out as a starter. The Twins’ brass felt like Dobnak and his newly signed contract were a better fit as the bullpen’s long man, but the numbers point to this being a poor decision.

    Entering play on Wednesday, Dobnak had appeared in 22 big-league games with 15 coming as a starter and seven coming in relief. As a starter, he has a 3.41 ERA with a 43 to 18 strikeout to walk ratio while holding batters to a .645 OPS. His relief appearances have resulted in a 4.20 ERA with batters compiling an .870 OPS in almost 70 plate appearances. This isn’t exactly a large sample size, but his numbers as a starter are clearly better.

    Also, Minnesota has been using Dobnak in situations where he can continue to stay stretched out. He has been limited to just three appearances this year, because the Twins have only seen three of their games decided by more than two runs. This doesn’t exactly lend itself to naturally using a long man out of the bullpen, because Rocco Baldelli has turned to more of his high leverage arms in close and late game scenarios.

    https://twitter.com/MatthewTaylorMN/status/1382323416234086407?s=20

    Having Dobnak stretched out will be useful since the team has 11 games over the next 10 days and the current starters won’t be able to make all of those starts. On the TV broadcast, Justin Morneau alluded to the fact that Dobnak will make a start during the next week. That being said, it’s hard to imagine him being able to pitch deep into a game since he hasn’t started since early in spring training.

    For Dobnak to get more relief opportunities, it might be beneficial for the Twins to separate Happ and Shoemaker in the rotation. Those two starters are the ones he is most likely going to piggyback with since neither are expected to pitch deep into games on a regular basis. Currently, they pitch on back-to-back days and that doesn’t allow Dobnak to piggyback for both of them

    Teams are using a variety of strategies this year to cover innings and piggybacking those two starters might be a strategy the Twins will need to start using. There’s likely going to be a time this season where Dobnak is going to be needed in the rotation. For now, his role in the bullpen needs to be altered so he can find more success.

    Do you think Dobnak should continue to be used as a reliver? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.

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    We’re making this conclusion based on 3 appearances? Really, it’s 2 normal appearances, because his first was in the make-believe 10th inning scenario where he faced two batters and gave up a single and a ground ball to second. (I do think it strange to give a low K% guy like Dobnak the first extra inning.)

     

    Still, in both of the two normal outings, he completely shut down the opposition for his first two innings and then was poor (to very poor) in his third inning of work. It’s seems kinda hard given that small set of outcomes to conclude he’s likely to be more effective as a starter. How about instead we limit him to no more than two innings in tight games, and avoid using him (or defer his use) in extra inning scenarios?

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    Aaron Gleeman observed that Dobnak would likely be better suited to long relief work when he was brought in to start the inning, rather than being given the ball when runners are already on base or in other higher leverage situations.

     

    It is mighty, mighty early to be thinking much beyond that. Dobnak has major league stuff and he will contribute to a successful Twins season.  Let's come back to this after he's faced about double the 28 batters he's thrown against so far.

     

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    Thanks Cody for a great article! By help support the fact that Dobnak is a starter and not a reliever. As I stated before a starter focus is to win games and a reliever is to save games (preserve wins), from very high leverage to mop up. Dobnak pitched in both relieving extremes in his 1st 2 games which IMO has been detrimental to his starter psyche, rythym and confidence . When he's placed in games, he needs to be given the opportunity to win the game not save it.

    It's too bad that he was used this way especially when we lost opportunities to win games we lost especially while he was still hot from ST.

    I believe right now he needs to pitch only in games where he can win, maybe only for a couple of innings to regain his rythym, confidence and sharpness. Again I'm advocating the need for an extra long reliever (rotating AAA starters)to bridge the gap to short relief.

    Dobnak is a valuable weapon that we need to utilize properly to advance.

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    Small Sample Size folks.    I would have given him one of the starting spots over Happ or Shoemaker but there is real value in having a long relief guy like Dobnak and two appearances doesn't define anything.    Long relief also should suit a guy expected to make spot starts.   Maybe not ideal for him but I would wait 40 games into the season to come to any conclusion.   Not 10.

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    Most guys the Twins send to the pen manage to ramp up their fastball a couple mph. Dobnak has not done that. He pitches in relief the same way he would pitch as a starter, with the same velocity. The difference appears to be command. As a starter, I don't see (haven't seen) his stuff drift over the middle as much as it did yesterday. 

     

    No real mystery what was troubling Twins pitchers yesterday. The stuff getting pounded was almost all right down the middle. One exception, a lefty golfed a homer off a down and in curve. 

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    Is it fair to give up on that slider that he came up with in Spring Training that was supposed to strike everyone out? Was that just hype?

    I think he's using that slider far too much. They are laying off of it and they aren't going for strikes. I agree that he should go back to his old routine and slide in that slider only in opportune times.

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    Smashing the like button on this one. 

    It seemed a poor decision out of ST and the results haven't made the decision look any better.

    Not many decisions by this team over the last few years surprise me, but keeping Dobnak on the roster to pitch out of the pen legitimately surprised me.  

    Count me as one of the many who thinks he should be sent to St Paul to continue pitching 5-6 innings every fifth day.

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    I think the only people who think Dobnak is a reliever is Baldelli and probably the Twins pitching coaches.

     

    Even if he can perform well as a reliever, he's certainly not a closer.

    I am fine with him in almost any situation because he appears to be a battler.   Being the guy to come in with the new rules of inheriting a guy on 2nd with no outs doesn't seem suited to him.   Normally a guy that would welcome a ground ball and take the chances, a ground ball in that situation  just puts a guy on 3rd with less than two outs with the odds another ground ball is coming up with a fair chance of scoring.   I think he is a pretty good pitcher and EVERYONE give up runs but time will tell.                                                              

    Of course it might have to do with the fact we've lost every game under the rules but I am not a fan of that guy on 2nd in extra innings.    I kind of like the reliever limits.   I want a faster paced game but not necessarily a shorter game.  

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    I am fine with him in almost any situation because he appears to be a battler.   Being the guy to come in with the new rules of inheriting a guy on 2nd with no outs doesn't seem suited to him.   Normally a guy that would welcome a ground ball and take the chances, a ground ball in that situation  just puts a guy on 3rd with less than two outs with the odds another ground ball is coming up with a fair chance of scoring.   I think he is a pretty good pitcher and EVERYONE give up runs but time will tell.                                                              

    Of course it might have to do with the fact we've lost every game under the rules but I am not a fan of that guy on 2nd in extra innings.    I kind of like the reliever limits.   I want a faster paced game but not necessarily a shorter game.  

     

    I am a huge fan of Dobnak, but he would be my last option to put in as a closer. I don't think I would use him as a set-up man either. He would be the #3 starter on my roster. It would be his job to lose.

     

    Granted, Baldelli does not seem to believe in specialists for the 8th and 9th innings. Even still, his job as manager is to know where to put players so they can succeed. For position players, that's easy. For pitchers, not so much, but Dobnak seems like one of the easier pitchers to place given his repertoire.

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    I'd like to see him penciled in as the guy that starts the 5th or 6th inning for each start that Happ and Shoemaker make.....and plan for him to go 2-3 innings each time. Until they give up on one of those starters......It seemed an odd decision to bring them both in, but they did.

     

    Odd most years but this is a very weird year. Their approach suggests they wanted depth and that makes sense any year and especially this year, right? Happ / Shoemaker & Dobnak provide quality depth. Thorpe may or may not be a bonus. I will be rooting for him tomorrow. That would be great if he could contribute.

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    Odd most years but this is a very weird year. Their approach suggests they wanted depth and that makes sense any year and especially this year, right? Happ / Shoemaker & Dobnak provide quality depth. Thorpe may or may not be a bonus. I will be rooting for him tomorrow. That would be great if he could contribute.

    Ya. It's so hard to know what the rookies can do given last year..... But I was still surprised.

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    Dobnak is not a one-inning maximum effort reliever. I'm sure he'd be fine in the rotation and I believe he will be good in a multiple inning relief role as well. Much of his bad numbers come from the third inning of the blowout victory over the Tigers where he gave up five runs in the bottom of the ninth. I don't think Dobnak is ideal to be the guy to pitch in the new extra inning setup, as he was in the season opener. 

     

    I fully expect that Dobnak will be in the rotation within a month, somebody will get hurt or be ineffective, or perhaps the Twins will go to a 6-man rotation. 

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    I thought he was a starter too, but in his admittedly small sample of 15 starts, he has lasted an average of 4.4 innings per start and made it more than 5.1 innings only twice. Those lamenting the overuse of the bullpen may be disappointed if that pattern continues. 

     

    I prefer the option Mike describes three comments above, starting the first inning after Shoemaker and Happ have been pulled, going 2-3 innings. To do that requires adjusting the rotation somewhere, however, since the two are now back-to-back. But they should be doing that anyway, since it also means Maeda/Berrios/Pineda (and thus the days the bullpen is most likely to be somewhat spared) are back-to-back-to-back.

     

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    No matter the situation, Rocco has not trusted Dobnak to face a lineup three times. I have found that unusual. Given his new contract, the Twins must see a good future for him and it would be as a starter IMHO, but he seems to be a throwback to the pitch-to-contact sinkerballers of 15 years ago.

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