How Soon Do the Twins Need a Fifth Starter?

I was wondering about this.  Thanks for bursting the bubble. Do the Twins just role with the young guys to start the season and wait for the trade deadline to add?  Or is there another trading partner out there besides Oakland?

56 minutes ago, Jeremy Nygaard said:

I tend to think that the fifth starter is going to be some sort of Jax/Thorpe piggyback. Being able to carry extra players with allow the Twins (and every other team) to bring long-reliever-type guys up to eat innings. These guys - Jax and Thorpe included - will probably still be available out of the bullpen on most other days, but just be asked to each go three on the day the fifth starter is needed.

I believe teams would be better off carrying a real 5th starter instead of consistently dipping into 3A for that extra arm or that 5th starter. Usually you are recalling someone who isn’t ML ready because of the circumstances surrounding his call up. Not to mention the what happens to these players mentally from being on that ML to 3A shuttle often. Teams are trying to manage innings as the season progresses and the 5th starter does this on its own. Injuries are bound to happen as well requiring more ML replacements. 

From what I've seen the past few years, very few teams use the off days to skip No. 5. Last year, for example, only seven MLB starters had 33 starts. That's what the No. 1 and 2 guys get if they simply start every five GAMES and stay healthy. If teams were using every five days, they'd get up closer to 36 or so (36 x 5 = 180-day season). 

And with Gray atop the rotation, he's not so dominant that you're seeking to maximize his starts. And based on last year, I'm not sure you can even expect that. He had 12 starts on four days rest, 7 on five and 4 on six, so he's not really used to it. Also, that's only 23 starts, totaling 135 innings -- I'm guessing the FO will be ecstatic if he gets to 30 starts.

And even if they did want to maximize Gray starts, using this approach means that you also have to do it with other guys as well, so it means prioritizing Ryan, et al., staying on an every five DAY rotation. Given that pretty much everyone is going to be on some sort of innings limitation, I don't see them wanting to do that either. If anything, they'll be looking for days to squeeze in an extra day's rest.

So even if they COULD skip No. 5 more often, I don't think they will. 

Coming up with five starters to begin the year is challenge enough. The bigger challenge I'm seeing at this point, however, is how to manage the innings of starters Nos. 6, 7, 8, etc., so that they still have innings left when guys above them hit their limits. Does that mean that the St. Paul guys go only a few innings in their early starts so they have innings left in August and September, for example? 

Ultimately, I'm bracing myself for reading the wrath of TD readers as folks rail on the pitching schedule. I could still see there being a trade or signing, but even if Cueto signs now, for example, he's likely not going to be ready the first time or so through the lineup. I'm guessing we'll be seeing different combinations of openers and stacking at various points in the season. 

I'd prefer they'd give the ball to someone every 5 days rather than planned bullpen games that deplete your bullpen. You'll get enough unplanned bullpen games as it is

Openers and Bullpen games, friends. I hate it, but get used to it. We are going to see a bunch of them

Not only do they need a fifth starter, they need to have a plan for starters 6, 7 and 8 for injuries, ineffectiveness and inclement weather.  Balazovic, Duran, Sands and or Stroman will need to progress quickly. If they do not trade for a starter and sign another aged starter the rotation could be Gray and rookies in a quick hurry.

2 hours ago, The Mad King said:

I'd prefer they'd give the ball to someone every 5 days rather than planned bullpen games that deplete your bullpen. You'll get enough unplanned bullpen games as it is

I think your comment is especially valid given the new CBA condition that you can only option a player five times in a year without placing him on waivers.  While five seems like a lot, those heavy bullpen days followed by exchanging relievers with the AAA squad will evaporate that very quickly.

On the other hand, if you slot in Jax/Thorpe as a tandem 5th starter and tell both they need to go three innings, you haven't lost that much.  You could still use them in short relief on some days and one of them would have been the 5th starter anyway.

Ryan and Ober have earned shots at a rotation spot but other than them there should be no questions in the rotation.  They have signed Buxton and Correa, put a serious rotation out there to back them.  There are a lot of high minors arms with potential but you are already betting 2 rotation spots on that.  They need a legit top of the rotation arm and then the 5th spot can rotate amongst the possibilities.

Gray

Vacant spot

Bundy (ideally your 5th starter)

Ryan

Ober

That being said this is going to be a very interesting year for pitching endurance.  Short off season off multiple covid effected years, there will be a lot of bullpen innings to eat.  The long reliever and the extra bullpen arms are going to get a lot of play. 

13 hours ago, Twins_Fan_For_Life said:

Openers and Bullpen games, friends. I hate it, but get used to it. We are going to see a bunch of them

The Rays success and the way pitchers have been used in the playoffs suggests the Twins and many other teams are not going to have the traditional 5 man rotation.  Guys like Jax are going to be stacked or asked to pitch 2-3 innings when someone has a short start.  I could see them using Cotton / Smeltzer / Thorpe and even Alcala in this type of role.  All of the prospects could also enter the big leagues in a similar role.  

This thread and talk of using bullpen starts with no 5th starter has me shuddering at what could happen to a pitching staff that is not deep.  We'll have our share of those clankers where the starter goes 2-3 innings.  Then what?  how many pitchers does Rocco use up trying to stay in the game?  Our bullpen can't afford to get over exposed like that, we just don't have the quality arms.

What's the problem with Josh Winder? He looked nervous in his first inning, then better in the 2nd. His stuff starts high and ends low. Once he settles in, he could be a very good #5 in the ro. 

All this talk about needing one more super veteran pitcher... The Twins look pretty set to me. If anything, the weak link appears to be the underwhelming stuff from Dylan Bundy, who seems to be entering the "tightrope walking" phase of his career. Not a whole lot of velo on the old heater, and I thought hitters were looking too comfortable in the box when Bundy was pitching. 

Luckily, the Twins have Vallimont, Strotman, Sands, Balazovic and Enlow - young strong arms waiting for their first chance to pitch meaningful games. If somebody falters in the first month, bring up whoever is stingiest with walks. Reward discipline, not power. 

1 hour ago, heresthething said:

This thread and talk of using bullpen starts with no 5th starter has me shuddering at what could happen to a pitching staff that is not deep.  We'll have our share of those clankers where the starter goes 2-3 innings.  Then what?  how many pitchers does Rocco use up trying to stay in the game?  Our bullpen can't afford to get over exposed like that, we just don't have the quality arms.

If they only have 4 starters, they could have 4 guys that are hybrids (2-4 innings) and still have five 1 inning specialists.  That model pretty easily gets you to 1460 innings which assumes a 500 road record and 40 extra innings.  Two guys are stacked as the 5th starter and the other two as needed.  Having those types of guys is a very effective way to avoid over using the BP.  Winder might end up the 5th starter where he is typically only asked to go 4.  Maybe they use an opener of someone like Jax stacked.  I would much rather go with Winder / Jax instead of a mediocre vet.

It looks like some of these games start real early.

16 hours ago, heresthething said:

This thread and talk of using bullpen starts with no 5th starter has me shuddering at what could happen to a pitching staff that is not deep.  We'll have our share of those clankers where the starter goes 2-3 innings.  Then what?  how many pitchers does Rocco use up trying to stay in the game?  Our bullpen can't afford to get over exposed like that, we just don't have the quality arms.

For sure. We're all worried about the 5th starter here, but what happens when starters 1-4 get their doors blown off in the 2nd inning? Because that's gonna happen. Here are the lines from 3 starts in a row from Bundy's last year:

3.1 innings, 6 ER
4.0 innings, 7 ER
2.1 innings, 4 ER

That's our number two guy! Egads! Meanwhile, they won't even let Ober or Ryan throw 5 innings? Madness. So what happens if Bundy, Ober, and Ryan start to majorly tank at the same time? Heck, even if one or two of them hits a rough patch it's going to be trouble. Imagine Gray regressing or god forbid going down with an injury?

Rocco's been known to quickly "forfeit" games in short order when the team gets behind by more than 3-4 runs. So if things go south, we might see position players pitch or just let a bullpen guy 'wear it' for the night, resulting in a good many 16-4 or 12-2 losses for this team. When they lose, they're going to lose big.

1 hour ago, bighat said:

For sure. We're all worried about the 5th starter here, but what happens when starters 1-4 get their doors blown off in the 2nd inning? Because that's gonna happen. Here are the lines from 3 starts in a row from Bundy's last year:

3.1 innings, 6 ER
4.0 innings, 7 ER
2.1 innings, 4 ER

That's our number two guy! Egads! Meanwhile, they won't even let Ober or Ryan throw 5 innings? Madness. So what happens if Bundy, Ober, and Ryan start to majorly tank at the same time? Heck, even if one or two of them hits a rough patch it's going to be trouble. Imagine Gray regressing or god forbid going down with an injury?

Rocco's been known to quickly "forfeit" games in short order when the team gets behind by more than 3-4 runs. So if things go south, we might see position players pitch or just let a bullpen guy 'wear it' for the night, resulting in a good many 16-4 or 12-2 losses for this team. When they lose, they're going to lose big.

 

Veteran status does not make Bundy our #2 even if they were to start him after Gray.  There is no way in hell we are going to see a position player pitch with a 28 man roster.  When they cut down to 26, there will probably be 3 or 4 guys who can go multiple innings.

On 3/24/2022 at 9:15 PM, old nurse said:

Not only do they need a fifth starter, they need to have a plan for starters 6, 7 and 8 for injuries, ineffectiveness and inclement weather.  Balazovic, Duran, Sands and or Stroman will need to progress quickly. If they do not trade for a starter and sign another aged starter the rotation could be Gray and rookies in a quick hurry.

Basically a #1 and 4 number 5s or to be charitable to Bundy,a #1, a #4 and 3 #5s. I can’t believe they let the pitching slide this long.

On 3/25/2022 at 12:31 PM, jimbo92107 said:

What's the problem with Josh Winder? He looked nervous in his first inning, then better in the 2nd. His stuff starts high and ends low. Once he settles in, he could be a very good #5 in the ro. 

All this talk about needing one more super veteran pitcher... The Twins look pretty set to me. If anything, the weak link appears to be the underwhelming stuff from Dylan Bundy, who seems to be entering the "tightrope walking" phase of his career. Not a whole lot of velo on the old heater, and I thought hitters were looking too comfortable in the box when Bundy was pitching. 

Luckily, the Twins have Vallimont, Strotman, Sands, Balazovic and Enlow - young strong arms waiting for their first chance to pitch meaningful games. If somebody falters in the first month, bring up whoever is stingiest with walks. Reward discipline, not power. 

This is fine if they were rebuilding, let the multiple young arms earn their licks. 

However spending a prospect like Petty to bring in Sonny Gray and signing Carlos Correa to a historic AAV contract, even if its for a year, is a much different route. 

Ryan and Ober both have potential but also limited ceiling, limited experience, and limited stamina. Both are major question marks for next season.  Rookies breaking out would be awesome but there are a ton of innings to fill before thats a thing.

There has to be at least 1 if not 2 moves coming to the staff, or they just signed Correa to trade him.

On 3/26/2022 at 10:49 PM, Greglw3 said:

Basically a #1 and 4 number 5s or to be charitable to Bundy,a #1, a #4 and 3 #5s. I can’t believe they let the pitching slide this long.

If this is an accurate portrayal, what's the point of mortgaging the future to add a #2 or #3? That kind of pitching still has a meager chance of making the playoffs and then making a run.  Also, have you noticed that no other team has been able to trade for the pitchers targeted here?  Do you supposed all of those interested team's inaction might suggest Oakland has set an absurd price and are willing to wait for the deadline to move them?  

6 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

If this is an accurate portrayal, what's the point of mortgaging the future to add a #2 or #3? That kind of pitching still has a meager chance of making the playoffs and then making a run.  Also, have you noticed that no other team has been able to trade for the pitchers targeted here?  Do you supposed all of those interested team's inaction might suggest Oakland has set an absurd price and are willing to wait for the deadline to move them?  

I do think the inaction shows that Oakland’s price is too high. I’d forget about Montas now, keep Miranda and Martin and try to trade a prospect w 6 years control for 1 of Manea and not Winder. Someone like Cole Sands for Manea.

I’ve seen it happen where the 87 Twins won the World Series with basically a 3 man pitching staff in the playoffs and WS. SO one more good starter Manea or Cueto would really help and then maybe the 3rd guy would step up during the season. I’m still squeamish about starting Kepler and Sano. I honestly think 550 AB of Miranda > the risk of 550 AB w Sano. And Kepler would be my 4th OF with Larnach, Buxton and Kirilloff being the OF. So out with Kepler Sano and 2 inexperienced pitchers and in with Manea and Cueto Larnach and Kirilloff.

On 3/25/2022 at 8:38 AM, chpettit19 said:

I'm guessing they carry 15 pitchers for the first month (as far as I know there's no rules on having to carry at least 14 position players of the 28 roster spots). I think we see a lot of multi-inning relief appearances from the likes of Cotton, Jax, and Thorpe at least. The Twins currently have 17 arms on the 40-man who haven't been optioned or placed on the 60-day. I'd guess Winder, Duran, and Romero are fighting over 2 spots. Or if none of them earn it Romero goes back on waivers and someone like Faria or Smeltzer takes that spot. But I'm guessing we see 15 pitchers come north to start the year and there's a lot of short starts backed by long relief outings for the first month of the season.

The talk about having any reliance on Jax, Cotton or Thorpe really scares me. You never know in baseball....maybe Jax can make a viable 1 inning reliever. I’m more comfortable with Duran and Winder. I think it would be like rolling snakeeyes 5 times in a row if Bundy, Ober, Ryan, Winder all were below 4.00 ERA pitchers this year. I’d love it but it would go against baseball history big time.  It’s a tough problem to solve at this point. I keep visiting MLBTRs several times a day!