Twins Video
Ober: 3 1/3 IP, 4 H, 4 R, 4 ER, 2 BB, 4 K
Home Runs: Alex Kirilloff (8), Jorge Polanco (11)
Top 3 WPA: Jorge Polanco .454, Luis Arraez .128, Alexander Colomé .124
Win Probability Chart (via FanGraphs)
It appeared as though a win simply wasn’t in the cards for the Twins for the majority of the game on Saturday afternoon.
Starting pitcher Bailey Ober started off the game strong, striking out the side in the first inning, but flamed out brightly during the Tigers’ second time through the order. Niko Goodrum and Zack Short crushed balls over the fence and Harold Castro brought in another to give Detroit a 4-0 lead after four innings.
But, remarkably, things started to go the Twins’ way in the second half of the game.
Derek Law and Danny Coloumbe came on in relief for Ober and pitched 3 ⅔ innings of scoreless ball. Alex Kirilloff blasted a home run over the right centerfield fence to cut the lead to 4-2 in the sixth. Jorge Polanco added three more in the seventh with his 11th home run of the season. Alexander Colomé pitched a scoreless top of the eighth inning after allowing a leadoff double and four Twins’ runners touched home in the bottom of the frame.
After the dust had settled, the Twins had turned a 4-0 deficit with an 8.2% win expectancy into a 9-4 win, clinching a series victory over the Tigers.
While their opponent was not exactly the same caliber of, say, a Chicago or Boston, the Twins’ win on Saturday should provide the masses with a breath of fresh air. The bullpen performed well, the offense came through in the clutch, one of the franchise’s premier prospects hit a mammoth bomb. At the end of the day, a quality win is a quality win, regardless of opponent.
A Note on Ober
Although Ober struggled against an iffy Tigers lineup, he continued to display signs of promise for the future.
By now it has been well established that his fastball is significantly improved from the last time he played live ball in 2019 and it is that improvement that helped propel him into the majors this season. However, the key for him moving forward is all about process.
At 92-94 mph, Ober isn’t going to overpower batters on a consistent basis. That is where his strong command and control comes into play. If he is able to place a 94 mph heater wherever he wishes, he becomes a much more dangerous opponent. However, over his last two starts, his command has been mediocre at best. He walked three during his win over the White Sox and two against the Tigers on Saturday.
But, I wonder if the Twins are working with him on improving his pitch placement. Ober consistently works his fastball up in the zone with up-and-away being the second most frequent location it was deployed against Detroit; this is where his fastball is most effective. He couples his fastball with a sharp curveball down in the zone. In the minors, pitchers of Ober’s caliber can get away with somewhat shoddy pitch command/location. That won’t fly against a major league batting order.
Making adjustments on the fly to where he is looking to throw the ball would help explain at least some of the control issues Ober has displayed as of late. His strikeout numbers are there, but once his command improves and he starts missing more barrels, he’ll be right in-line to contend for a rotation spot moving forward.
Postgame Interviews
Bullpen Usage Spreadsheet
| MON | TUE | WED | THU | FRI | SAT | TOT | |
| Law | 0 | 0 | 50 | 0 | 0 | 27 | 77 |
| Thielbar | 29 | 0 | 20 | 0 | 20 | 0 | 69 |
| Duffey | 17 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 0 | 21 | 53 |
| Rogers | 31 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 37 |
| Robles | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 24 | 0 | 36 |
| Colomé | 0 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 31 |
| Coulombe | 0 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 25 |
| Alcala | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 23 | 0 | 23 |
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