talent eval

[OldTimeTwinkie]

Well this be our 4th 90 loss season? Span and Revere net us nothing really. Everyone thinks Meyer And May are going to be worth it. In Meyers case he us a college pitcher who can't crack the worst starting pitching un the majors. Then is the first cut.. We got nothing for Hardy, Gomez and Wilson on this years team. Also we set a record for strikeouts lasy year and our hitting coach u s back. If you say it was the players then why do we have the same ones back. If it is the coach why is he back. There is a pattern here of evaluation gone haywire. Oh well.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Hi Twinkie. I think many people here will agree with you on most points EXCEPT the Span for Meyer trade. Are you that pessimistic on Meyer? In my opinion he just doesnt quite have the seasoning/innings yet to be a regular contributor. True he pitched college though. I think the Twins are making the right decisions for him. We could see him at some point this summer.

 

The pattern of evaluation: Twins can't seem to develop an infielder any more to save their lives. But look at what they've done with center fielders -- pretty impressive. I think that was the reasoning behind dealing Span and Revere, that Hicks was getting close, and now we're seeing Buxton coming along too.

[Seth Stohs]

I still think Meyer will be pretty good, potentially dominant. He was with the first cuts so he could get stretched out.

 

May... I don't think anyone thinks he's going to be a top of the rotation starter, maybe a 4/5 and more likely a long-term solid reliever.

 

Plenty of reason for optimism despite what will likely be a 4th straight 90 loss season.

[LaBombo]

Meyer is 24 and has one season's worth of pro innings spread out over the past two years. Might be a little early to throw up the hands in despair. And May was hurt. It happens.

 

The lack of return on guys they've traded is frustrating, as is the lack of return on guys they didn't. And yes, infield, except for Sano and maybe Rosario, is pretty much a black hole. Pretty much a 20 year drought at this point.

[Thrylos]

Well this be our 4th 90 loss season? Span and Revere net us nothing really. Everyone thinks Meyer And May are going to be worth it. In Meyers case he us a college pitcher who can't crack the worst starting pitching un the majors. Then is the first cut.. We got nothing for Hardy, Gomez and Wilson on this years team. Also we set a record for strikeouts lasy year and our hitting coach u s back. If you say it was the players then why do we have the same ones back. If it is the coach why is he back. There is a pattern here of evaluation gone haywire. Oh well.

 

I don't think it is evaluation per se, but lack of accountability. The Gomez trade was a mistake, as was the Hardy trade (not sure who Wilson is.) I would disagree that the Twins got nothing back from Span and Revere.

 

Alex Meyer has top of the rotation stuff, he just needs another year or so. Were he in another team, like the Marlins or Astros, he would had been in the majors last season. But the Twins do not do that. I think that the Twins won that trade because aging below average hitting centerfielders (OPS+ 94 last season for Span) are a dime a dozen.

 

Revere is slightly different story because he has a couple of crazy good skills (speed, contact and fielding) and crazy good energy, but he lacks on plate discipline, arm and power. Hard to tell whether he will be a starter or a back up in the majors. Worst-case scenario, and the Twins are not there yet, but they might be soon, May has the stuff to be a dominant closer. Could also be a #3 starter easily and that's why he is starting still.... Add a pitcher who had success but for some reason has lost it next year and needs to find it, and I think that the Revere trade is pretty close, if not at the Twins' advantage as well...

[twinsfan34]

I don't have as much hope for May.

 

But I think Meyer could be peak at a 140-155 ERA+, that is the 3.20 ERA with lots of strikeouts.

 

But we'll see.

 

I'm no scout.

 

Revere had as low grade power as there is in MLB and his arm wasn't much different. Speed and defensive range.

 

I'm not sure what they saw in May, maybe thought they could straighten out his command and he'd be a #4?

 

We didn't give up a lot and based on the ascension of Aaron Hicks, probably thought Revere was expendable and worth the risk to acquire an arm.

[jokin]

Meyer is 24 and has one season's worth of pro innings spread out over the past two years. Might be a little early to throw up the hands in despair. And May was hurt. It happens.

 

The lack of return on guys they've traded is frustrating, as is the lack of return on guys they didn't. And yes, infield, except for Sano and maybe Rosario, is pretty much a black hole. Pretty much a 20 year drought at this point.

 

I don't get the inpatience on Meyer. Most of his peripherals were at the top of the EL last year. His FIP ended up #3 for those over 70 innings, and that included some bad starts when he was throwing with the sore shoulder. He put up better or comparable numbers alongside some other highly rated guys like Tallon and Barnes. And on the question of his injury and durability, he successfully answered doubters with a strong performance in the AFL.

 

Tall pitchers take longer to put their mechanics together. Randy Johnson debuted at age 24 with 4 games in September, but didn't fully establish himself until his 3rd year in MLB, and after the Expos had dumped him to the Mariners. I'm not saying he will be the next Randy Johnson or closely match his numbers, but he can throw it up to 100 MPH. How huge would it be to have our own big unit throwing 200 innings every year to age 40, even if he only starts doing it age 26? Assuming all goes well in Rochester and with a possible inning limitation, I hope the Twins give him an early look this year, either in the pen, or to replace a starter.

 

May in my (still optimistic) mind, is no better than 50-50 to make it as a back-end starter. But his stuff and physical frame translates well if he can somehow get the control issues down. He has a better chance to be an effective RP- I think this year will be the fork in the road for his eventual career trajectory. Improving in Roc. on last year's meh numbers gives him an outside shot at the departed Correia's spot in 2015. But if he ends up in the pen, even as a valuable reliever, the trade has to be regarded as a miss. With that said, it's hard to fault the Twins for taking a shot at making a desperately needed pitching upgrade. (My only criticism of the Twins FO would be the "evaluation issues" from the other end of the deal- ie, despite his obvious track record suggesting difficult learning curve issues- in leaving poor Aaron Hicks to be embarassingly exposed last April as a real-time case study for the phrase: "They Shoot Horses Don't They?" ).

[Joe A. Preusser]

Hi Twinkie. I think many people here will agree with you on most points EXCEPT the Span for Meyer trade. Are you that pessimistic on Meyer? In my opinion he just doesnt quite have the seasoning/innings yet to be a regular contributor. True he pitched college though. I think the Twins are making the right decisions for him. We could see him at some point this summer.

 

The pattern of evaluation: Twins can't seem to develop an infielder any more to save their lives. But look at what they've done with center fielders -- pretty impressive. I think that was the reasoning behind dealing Span and Revere, that Hicks was getting close, and now we're seeing Buxton coming along too.

 

I think what they've done with Dozier begs to differ. If he repeats his success from last year (and I believe he will) he will be a definite win as far as talent development. From middling prospect to top-10 2B in baseball, I'll take that any day of the week.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

I think what they've done with Dozier begs to differ. If he repeats his success from last year (and I believe he will) he will be a definite win as far as talent development. From middling prospect to top-10 2B in baseball, I'll take that any day of the week.

 

Good correction. And I like Dozier. I had Plouffe in mind when I wrote that, and also the revolving door of mostly futile SS/2B since Bartlett was traded -- and there's nothing wrong with acquiring another team's prospects either, for sure.