Correia to the Braves?

[The Wise One]

I'm sorry, but that makes no sense whatsoever, by any respected publication or scout or anyone in the baseball industry. I understand we all have our biases, but THAT is crazy...

 

The truth is a Twins Top 15-20 prospect is the equivalent to a Braves Top 3-8 prospect.

 

This is why...

 

The WORST pitching framing catcher in MLB, and a backup catcher, one Ryan Doumit, yielded Sean Gilmartin, who for 2013 publications, beginning with Minorleagueball was their #5 prospect. John Sickels worked for Bill James, he's solid. Bill Ballew, for Baseball America, had Sean Gilmartin as the #4 Braves prospect going into 2013. Bleacherreport had Gilmartin as #8 overall among Braves prospects. Jason Parks of Baseball Prospectus, had Gilmart as #6 overall among Braves prospects. Fangraphs had him at #5 juts behind Lucas Sims entering 2013. Even the latest Baseball America rating of when Gilmartin was a Brave has him as #10.

 

And I don't want to go Allen Iverson here, but "we're talkin about about a backup catcher, worst pitching framing in MLB, going to the NL (no DH). And he's horrible in in the OF too, for the Braves (#5 MLB, #4 BA, #8 BR, #6 BP, #5 Fangraphs) prospect.

 

I don't think Gilmartin will amount to much, but who knows, he had (having) a good Spring Training.

 

But the Braves, just not the same farm system league as the Twins. There's jr leagues and big leagues, the Braves have had a few great classes graduate with Heyward, Freeman, Kimbrel, and co, but this is 2014 and it's not the same type of impact talent there.

 

Even the guy you name dropped, Jason Parks, has the Twins farm system as #1 for both impact talent AND depth. Meanwhile, he had the Braves at #24. It's not even close.

 

Here's some other publications, and Keith Law, who you also named dropped, is here ranking the organizations:

 

Organizational Rankings:

Bleacher Report - Twins #1, Braves #21

The Sporting News - Twins #3, Braves #27

Prospect Digest - Twins #4, Braves #26

ESPN, Keith Law - Twins #2, Braves #22

Baseball Prospectus - Twins #1, Braves #24

Baseball America - Twins #3, Braves #26

 

 

So we actually have a Prospect who was in the Braves system, just as recent as 4 months ago (this past season) and who's now in the Twins system. And we have a number of major publications, scouts, etc. who've had a chance to place him in the Twins system with an appropriate ranking.

 

And we have the disparaging difference in farm systems, yet a Twins top 10-15 prospect and Correia would yield a Braves Top 10-15 Prospect. Maybe on your Xbox or PS3 where you have "forced trades" initiated.

 

Here's a another publication...

The Twins #11 prospect is equivalent to the Braves #3 prospect.

 

Twins

2 - Buxton

8 - Sano

35 - Meyer

61 - Stewart

68 - Pinto

84 - Thorpe

107 - Rosario

109 - Berrios

173 - Harrison

188 - Amaurys Minier

213 - Sean Gilmartin

262 - Trevor May

296 - Max Kepler

 

Braves

47 - Sims

83 - Benthancourt

212 - La Stella

230 - J.R. Graham

267 - Salazar

 

Aaron Gleeman, not an 'expert' or a professional scout, but definitely aware of major publication prospect ratings, has Gilmartin as #40 among Twins Prospects.

 

Seth Stohs has Gilmartin somewhere around #19-#23 among Twins Prospects.

 

The Publications go on and on. Maybe Gilmartin was at worst #10 among Braves Prospects...but, he's not ranked higher than (possibly) #19 among Twins Prospects.

 

Baseball America's 2014 Prospect Handbook had Gilmartin as #10 among 2014 Braves Prospects. Gilmartin is a "45 Medium"...so if you glance over at Twins Prospects, again, just trying to put Twins-Braves Prospects on the same playing field...#14 (J. Pinto) and #15 (M. Tonkin) are "45 Medium" for the Twins...as are...#19 (Taylor Rogers)...then starting at #25 "45 High (risk)"...Travis Harrison, Niko Goodrum, Tyler Jones, Stuart Turner.

 

And honestly, I wouldn't trade any of the Twins "45 Mediums" for Gilmartin.

 

Rankings and lists are pretty. Look at what was on the Atlanta roster last year as homegrown talent versus what the Twins put out there as homegrown talent. Now compare and contrast. The top 30 prospects of the Twins may be rated higher but Atlanta seems to produce better quality.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Rankings and lists are pretty. Look at what was on the Atlanta roster last year as homegrown talent versus what the Twins put out there as homegrown talent. Now compare and contrast. The top 30 prospects of the Twins may be rated higher but Atlanta seems to produce better quality.

 

You are comparing Apples to Oranges here. You are comparing guys who haven't graduated to the Braves' system prior results. It's quite possible you are right (I hope note), but that won't be known for quite some time.

[Oxtung]

It's funny that the guy who's contract we all hated last year, we are now suddenly expecting to have good value. I'm not pointing fingers at anyone, because I too hated the contract, and I now too think he has some value.

 

However, Correia does seem like the kind of pitcher (boring innings eater) who fans would hate to give up anything for, but managers would overpay for. Depending on the GM, there probably is some decent value under the right circumstances.

 

He always had value. People hated it last year because he has such a limited ceiling, which is what he showed last season. You can find those guys every off season so why guarantee someone 2 years?

 

As far as I can tell most people still think that was a bad signing. People aren't trying to trade him because they think he'll bring back anything significant but rather because he's guaranteed a rotation spot that could instead be used for [insert pitcher here].

 

Last year people hated the second year and it looks to me like many still do.

[twinsfan34]

Rankings and lists are pretty. Look at what was on the Atlanta roster last year as homegrown talent versus what the Twins put out there as homegrown talent. Now compare and contrast. The top 30 prospects of the Twins may be rated higher but Atlanta seems to produce better quality.

 

Statistically, those are what you call independent events. And if you take a look at WAR created by draft class or international signings year by year, you won't find a correlation where one GM or team is likely to achieve success the next year.

[The Wise One]

Statistically, those are what you call independent events. And if you take a look at WAR created by draft class or international signings year by year, you won't find a correlation where one GM or team is likely to achieve success the next year.

What does the system year in and year out produce? Over time the Braves have put out a lot of talent. High level talent. You rip on the talent in the Braves system as inferior to the Twins. The level may be rated higher by websites, but the end product would appear to be much better coming out of the Braves. You all can be dismissive of that fact and change your debate. The prospect you have no idea of how good or bad they will be, or how they could help your club. Correa is viewed as a 5th starter. No prospect in return should have a rank. They should have potential.

[The Wise One]

He always had value. People hated it last year because he has such a limited ceiling, which is what he showed last season. You can find those guys every off season so why guarantee someone 2 years?

 

As far as I can tell most people still think that was a bad signing. People aren't trying to trade him because they think he'll bring back anything significant but rather because he's guaranteed a rotation spot that could instead be used for [insert pitcher here].

 

Last year people hated the second year and it looks to me like many still do.

 

About 85 pitchers a year pit more than 170 innings. If you are trying to get into and through the playoffs, the innings he can pitch are valuable. Of those 80 some pitchers, maybe 15 will have a worse ERA than Correa does. He will rarely win you a game. Thus the value he has to a team is as a depedendable fill in. He is better than what you have in the minors so you go get him. A team would have to be at plan C to look at Correia. That shouldn't be happening in spring training.

[Oxtung]

About 85 pitchers a year pit more than 170 innings. If you are trying to get into and through the playoffs, the innings he can pitch are valuable. Of those 80 some pitchers, maybe 15 will have a worse ERA than Correa does. He will rarely win you a game. Thus the value he has to a team is as a depedendable fill in. He is better than what you have in the minors so you go get him. A team would have to be at plan C to look at Correia. That shouldn't be happening in spring training.

 

I think we're agreeing here for the most part. I would just amend what you said slightly to, "His value is dependent upon the needs of the team." In the circumstance you describe, he has value as a fifth starter trying to push the team into the playoffs. A year of Marginal Pitcher A throwing 130 innings of 5+ ERA could lead to an October staying home.

 

On the other hand, to a team like the Twins who aren't going to the playoffs either way, his innings aren't particularly valuable because they aren't enough to push the team to contention and he won't be here when the Twins are ready to contend. He is merely a place filler. Which is fine, unless he starts to block players, like Gibson or Meyer (I'm not saying he is at the moment), who actually will be here when the Twins are looking to contend again.

 

How it turns out remains to be seen. As I've stated I highly doubt the Twins are going to trade him after spending so much money trying to bring in veteran pitchers and were still in the market for additional arms as little as a week ago.

[biggentleben]

I think we're agreeing here for the most part. I would just amend what you said slightly to, "His value is dependent upon the needs of the team." In the circumstance you describe, he has value as a fifth starter trying to push the team into the playoffs. A year of Marginal Pitcher A throwing 130 innings of 5+ ERA could lead to an October staying home.

 

While I know not many here are familiar with guys like David Hale, the Braves have guys in place that will certainly put up a league average line at #5. Frank Wren has also said that the team is done acquiring "veteran" players in multiple quotes after the Beachy news, so I'd wager to say if he's going to make a move, it will be for someone like Carlos Carrasco or Randall Delgado, guys out of options that could start the season in the rotation and either win the spot outright or do well moving to the bullpen. I would say that rather than Correia, he'd have some interest in Diamond, Worley, or Deduno if they're not going to make the squad, but I don't see Diamond or Worley transitioning well to a bullpen role, and Deduno has enough unknowns in his line that he may not do well with that transition either.

[kab21]

A lot of people said that about Drew Butera too.

 

 

Exactly. Butera netted an A ball reliever that doesn't rank in the Twins top 30 as far as I have seen. That's the kind of value that KC has.

[cmathewson]

Exactly. Butera netted an A ball reliever that doesn't rank in the Twins top 30 as far as I have seen. That's the kind of value that KC has.

 

Sulbaren had better numbers than Berrios last year, at the same level and at the same age. And he's bigger and left handed. I've seen him in some top 20 lists. I personally have him ranked 14th.

 

Unfortunately, he came into camp overweight, so that's a concern. But he was a good get for Butera. I wouldn't think we'd get that much for Correia.