Correia to the Braves?

[biggentleben]

Not sure which prospects the Braves would have...that 1) be willing to deal, 2) the Twins would want. Maybe Lucas Sims...but it's a pretty weak farm system. Not that Correia should/would bring back a lion's share...but you'd like to be able to get a guy who would actually make the pros at some point for a #3/#4 starter.

 

I really, really, really hope you're kidding.

 

I was trying to think of a prospect matchup for Correia, and it wasn't anyone on the Braves' top 30. Regarding the "weak" system, individual prospect rankings aren't always the best gauge. Jason Parks from BP recently interviewed with me, and in our exchanges, he stated that the Braves have a very upside-heavy system, specifically in their international signings. Perhaps the Braves would trade someone like Aaron Northcraft, but that's probably as deep as it'd go.

[biggentleben]

I don't see the Braves wanting Correia. There are other teams they could trade with that would have better options. I think the Twins will be lucky if they can trade Correia at the deadline. He looks like a solid number 5 starter and most teams can find a guy close to that in AAA. He needs a sub 4.00 ERA to find trade value and I don't know if he can do that.

 

The Braves would be looking for someone low, low-cost to replace Beachy. They did come into the spring with 7 starters competing for 5 spots, though, and that was before Floyd returns in May/June, so they're still sitting okay, just not with near the depth they had. Their current rotation sits along the lines of:

 

Minor

Teheran

Santana

Wood

Hale, with Garcia starting the season in either Minor or Santana's spot.

 

The Braves don't have a need for a 5th starter for an extended time into the season, and if they did, there's a large group in AAA that would be able to make a spot start as needed.

[jorgenswest]

I would think we are going to have several more threads about trading the surplus of number 5 starters (without the flexibility of options) for a prospect. While the Twins might be able to match up and pick up another optionless player on the fringe of a roster, I don't see any significant return for any of them. That expectation is unrealistic.

 

Why trade with the Twins for their fringe? Teams can simply wait out which of the number 5 starters is DFA'd.

[DaveW]

 

Why trade with the Twins for their fringe? Teams can simply wait out which of the number 5 starters is DFA'd.

Over his last 3 years, Correia has averaged 170 IP in the majors, and a 4.37 ERA. While there is nothing that is earth shatterning about those numbers, and his strike outs etc aren't in the least bit sexy, it is very clear he is more than a "fringe" major leaguer.

 

 

Once opening day rolls around I would LOVE to see someone post all of the pitchers they think are as good or as better than Kevin Correia who just get DFA'ed at that time.

 

Nobody is saying he is going to net some blue chip prospect, but dismissing him as "just a scrap heap arm who can be found on waivers" is no in the least bit accurate.

[DaveW]

The Braves would be looking for someone low, low-cost to replace Beachy. They did come into the spring with 7 starters competing for 5 spots, though, and that was before Floyd returns in May/June, so they're still sitting okay, just not with near the depth they had. Their current rotation sits along the lines of:

 

Minor

Teheran

Santana

Wood

Hale, with Garcia starting the season in either Minor or Santana's spot.

 

The Braves don't have a need for a 5th starter for an extended time into the season, and if they did, there's a large group in AAA that would be able to make a spot start as needed.

Hale is nothing special at all, and counting on Garcia is a recipe for disaster (Correia has significantly better numbers and doesn't have the injury issues over recent years)

 

I'm not saying they would give up much for him, but he is clearly an upgrade over their current options for a #5

[jorgenswest]

Over his last 3 years, Correia has averaged 170 IP in the majors, and a 4.37 ERA. While there is nothing that is earth shatterning about those numbers, and his strike outs etc aren't in the least bit sexy, it is very clear he is more than a "fringe" major leaguer.

 

 

Once opening day rolls around I would LOVE to see someone post all of the pitchers they think are as good or as better than Kevin Correia who just get DFA'ed at that time.

 

Nobody is saying he is going to net some blue chip prospect, but dismissing him as "just a scrap heap arm who can be found on waivers" is no in the least bit accurate.

 

I had to rereaad where I wrote scrap heap. Correia, Worley, Diamond and Deduno are all better than that.

 

I looked to see that trades the last few springs in march before I wrote. The guys that move are the guys on the fringe. The pitchers who are the back of the rotation and likely out of options. The return is a similar player.

 

The difference between the upside of a Worley and certainty of a Correia isn't great enough to motivate a team to deal a prospect.

 

In my mind there is a lot of space between fringe and scrap. If Deduno pitches well and Meyer shows he is ready, Correia moves out. That's fringe... not scrap.

[Jim H]

Hale is nothing special at all, and counting on Garcia is a recipe for disaster (Correia has significantly better numbers and doesn't have the injury issues over recent years)

 

I'm not saying they would give up much for him, but he is clearly an upgrade over their current options for a #5

 

What you are saying is true for the Twins as well. Correia is likely better than any of the current options for the 4 or 5 spot for the Twins. He might be better than Pelfrey or Hughes as well. At least to begin the season. This is the whole problem with the "trade Correia" movement. If as you say, he isn't going to bring back much in return, and right now is likely better than the other current options, why trade him?

[biggentleben]

Hale is nothing special at all, and counting on Garcia is a recipe for disaster (Correia has significantly better numbers and doesn't have the injury issues over recent years)

 

I'm not saying they would give up much for him, but he is clearly an upgrade over their current options for a #5

 

Garcia and Hale both produced for the Braves last year. Hale is better than you're assuming. I think you're mistaken on the Braves and their feelings toward both players.

[nicksaviking]

If Worley, Diamond, Deduno and Gibson had been pitching better I'd guess the Twins would be actively shopping Correia. I'm still for a move, but knowing this front office, they're not going to sell a guy preseason and insert what looks to be a downgrade from their perspective.

[Shane Wahl]

With Beachy going down, the Braves need another arm.

 

Pretty sure we could unload Correia who would be a nice arm for the Braves and pick up a solid prospect as well.

 

Yes, yes, yes that would be nice. I am sure a top 15-20 Braves prospect could be had.

[jorgenswest]

There are just no comps for a trades in March. I tried to find anything that was close to Correia traded for anything other than a player out of options on another team. Those trades aren't there for the last several years. It certainly isn't reasonable to expect.

 

All teams have their own roster pressures. They are also tracking the players that may become available as other teams make roster decisions. There is little motivation to give up a prospect in March.

[biggentleben]

Yes, yes, yes that would be nice. I am sure a top 15-20 Braves prospect could be had.

 

If a top 15-20 Twins prospect was included, that'd be a possibility.

[kab21]

I think it is a myth that the Twins have a logjam at #5 or too much pitching. The rotation is improved and it has some depth (primarily Gibson and a late season Meyer) but it's still pretty shaky.

 

The problem is that other than Nolasco none of the options are rock solid. We hope that Hughes and Pelfrey will be better than last year but... We hope that Gibson will be making a case that he HAS to be promoted but... We hope that everyone will stay healthy but... We hope that Johnson, Ibarra, Darnell, etc aren't last year's Hernandez's, Walter's and Alber's but...

 

Nolasco

Hughes

Pelfrey

Correia

Deduno - in the lead so far

 

Correia might not be great but I wouldn't go to any great lengths to bump up the #5 starters up the rotation.

[twinsfan34]

I really, really, really hope you're kidding.

 

I was trying to think of a prospect matchup for Correia, and it wasn't anyone on the Braves' top 30. Regarding the "weak" system, individual prospect rankings aren't always the best gauge. Jason Parks from BP recently interviewed with me, and in our exchanges, he stated that the Braves have a very upside-heavy system, specifically in their international signings. Perhaps the Braves would trade someone like Aaron Northcraft, but that's probably as deep as it'd go.

 

 

You mention "individual prospect rankings aren't always the best gauge" but then say the have "upside-heavy system, specifically in their international signings."

 

 

That's a contradiction.

 

Also look at the top 100 international signings since 2010. 90-95 of the top 100 don't even make it to AAA.

 

Corriea can contribute right now. And that's simple economics.

 

I doubt they are interested in Corriea but also doubt much of their international signings will mount to much.

[biggentleben]

You mention "individual prospect rankings aren't always the best gauge" but then say the have "upside-heavy system, specifically in their international signings."

 

 

That's a contradiction.

 

Also look at the top 100 international signings since 2010. 90-95 of the top 100 don't even make it to AAA.

 

Corriea can contribute right now. And that's simple economics.

 

I doubt they are interested in Corriea but also doubt much of their international signings will mount to much.

 

The Braves have gotten more WAR per dollar spent in Latin America than any team in the National League in the last 20 years. Their development of international signings and undrafted prospects is quite heralded throughout baseball. Correia is not better than what they have right now, and that's just pure and simple. The Twins would be overjoyed if they could get a 15-20 Braves prospect for Correia, but it's simply not going to happen without something major happening to another pitcher in the rotation, and if that happened, I would wager you'd hear them linked strongly with guys like Jeff Smardzija, Josh Beckett, or even swinging for the fences in Chris Sale or David Price, not pursuing subpar starters like Correia.

[twinsfan34]

Would love to see that WAR breakdown.

 

International signings of late:

 

2006

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/international-affairs/2006/262506.html

- Montero - 1 for 12

 

2007

http://www.baseballamerica.com/online/prospects/international-affairs/2007/264683.html

-Teheran - 1 for 20

 

2008

http://www.baseballamerica.com/online/prospects/international-affairs/2008/266917.html

- Yorman R, and maybe Ynoa - 1 for 20 so far.

 

2011

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/international-affairs/2011/2611344.html

- Heredia, Martinez, Alfaro

 

 

 

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2012/2/14/2795873/2011-mlb-international-signings-and-talent

 

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2013/1/30/3927084/mlb-international-signings-update-for-2012

[twinsfan34]

How are they without Andruw Jones?

[Oxtung]

The Twins just spent $83 million bringing in pitching upgrades this season. Even though they had a rotation consisting of Nolasco, Hughes, Correia, Pelfrey and several options for a fifth starter they were still actively pursing many additional pitchers. Clearly they think the pitching isn't ideal even at this point.

 

Why do you think, after all the effort they have gone through to acquire starting pitching, that the Twins would give up Correia before the season starts? I get that as fans we would like that but from the Twins perspective, and their actions, it seems to make little sense.

[biggentleben]

How are they without Andruw Jones?

 

You mean with only Raffy Furcal, Javy Lopez, Odalis Perez, Bruce Chen, Julio Teheran, Vinny Castilla, Martin Prado, Yunel Escobar, Elvis Andrus, Jair Jurrjens, and a host of bench/bullpen pieces like Eddie Perez, Gregor Blanco, and Luis Avilan? They're still sitting pretty good.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Correia's value is tied to his ability to chew up innings and stay relatively healthy.

I imagine this is pretty important to the Braves right now since they've apparently lost two starters for the season already, and jumped at Santana quickly. Though the Braves are known for developing pitching, they may not have much immediate reserve as I thought.

[biggentleben]

I imagine this is pretty important to the Braves right now since they've apparently lost two starters for the season already, and jumped at Santana quickly. Though the Braves are known for developing pitching, they may not have much immediate reserve as I thought.

 

Frank Wren was on the radio after the Santana signing, and Beachy was already struggling, and he talked about how the team still had 7 starters without Beachy that he'd be comfortable going into the season with once they had Santana on board. There's some rumor going around that Randall Delgado may be in play going back to the Braves as well, and while I think his future is as a reliever to maximize his value, he could certainly be an effective #5 that threw up numbers in the NL East.

[Thrylos]

You mean with only Raffy Furcal, Javy Lopez, Odalis Perez, Bruce Chen, Julio Teheran, Vinny Castilla, Martin Prado, Yunel Escobar, Elvis Andrus, Jair Jurrjens, and a host of bench/bullpen pieces like Eddie Perez, Gregor Blanco, and Luis Avilan? They're still sitting pretty good.

 

Lots of Hall of Famers out there

[twinsfan34]

If a top 15-20 Twins prospect was included, that'd be a possibility.

 

I'm sorry, but that makes no sense whatsoever, by any respected publication or scout or anyone in the baseball industry. I understand we all have our biases, but THAT is crazy...

 

The truth is a Twins Top 15-20 prospect is the equivalent to a Braves Top 3-8 prospect.

 

This is why...

 

The WORST pitching framing catcher in MLB, and a backup catcher, one Ryan Doumit, yielded Sean Gilmartin, who for 2013 publications, beginning with Minorleagueball was their #5 prospect. John Sickels worked for Bill James, he's solid. Bill Ballew, for Baseball America, had Sean Gilmartin as the #4 Braves prospect going into 2013. Bleacherreport had Gilmartin as #8 overall among Braves prospects. Jason Parks of Baseball Prospectus, had Gilmart as #6 overall among Braves prospects. Fangraphs had him at #5 juts behind Lucas Sims entering 2013. Even the latest Baseball America rating of when Gilmartin was a Brave has him as #10.

 

And I don't want to go Allen Iverson here, but "we're talkin about about a backup catcher, worst pitching framing in MLB, going to the NL (no DH). And he's horrible in in the OF too, for the Braves (#5 MLB, #4 BA, #8 BR, #6 BP, #5 Fangraphs) prospect.

 

I don't think Gilmartin will amount to much, but who knows, he had (having) a good Spring Training.

 

But the Braves, just not the same farm system league as the Twins. There's jr leagues and big leagues, the Braves have had a few great classes graduate with Heyward, Freeman, Kimbrel, and co, but this is 2014 and it's not the same type of impact talent there.

 

Even the guy you name dropped, Jason Parks, has the Twins farm system as #1 for both impact talent AND depth. Meanwhile, he had the Braves at #24. It's not even close.

 

Here's some other publications, and Keith Law, who you also named dropped, is here ranking the organizations:

 

Organizational Rankings:

Bleacher Report - Twins #1, Braves #21

The Sporting News - Twins #3, Braves #27

Prospect Digest - Twins #4, Braves #26

ESPN, Keith Law - Twins #2, Braves #22

Baseball Prospectus - Twins #1, Braves #24

Baseball America - Twins #3, Braves #26

 

 

So we actually have a Prospect who was in the Braves system, just as recent as 4 months ago (this past season) and who's now in the Twins system. And we have a number of major publications, scouts, etc. who've had a chance to place him in the Twins system with an appropriate ranking.

 

And we have the disparaging difference in farm systems, yet a Twins top 10-15 prospect and Correia would yield a Braves Top 10-15 Prospect. Maybe on your Xbox or PS3 where you have "forced trades" initiated.

 

Here's a another publication...

The Twins #11 prospect is equivalent to the Braves #3 prospect.

 

Twins

2 - Buxton

8 - Sano

35 - Meyer

61 - Stewart

68 - Pinto

84 - Thorpe

107 - Rosario

109 - Berrios

173 - Harrison

188 - Amaurys Minier

213 - Sean Gilmartin

262 - Trevor May

296 - Max Kepler

 

Braves

47 - Sims

83 - Benthancourt

212 - La Stella

230 - J.R. Graham

267 - Salazar

 

Aaron Gleeman, not an 'expert' or a professional scout, but definitely aware of major publication prospect ratings, has Gilmartin as #40 among Twins Prospects.

 

Seth Stohs has Gilmartin somewhere around #19-#23 among Twins Prospects.

 

The Publications go on and on. Maybe Gilmartin was at worst #10 among Braves Prospects...but, he's not ranked higher than (possibly) #19 among Twins Prospects.

 

Baseball America's 2014 Prospect Handbook had Gilmartin as #10 among 2014 Braves Prospects. Gilmartin is a "45 Medium"...so if you glance over at Twins Prospects, again, just trying to put Twins-Braves Prospects on the same playing field...#14 (J. Pinto) and #15 (M. Tonkin) are "45 Medium" for the Twins...as are...#19 (Taylor Rogers)...then starting at #25 "45 High (risk)"...Travis Harrison, Niko Goodrum, Tyler Jones, Stuart Turner.

 

And honestly, I wouldn't trade any of the Twins "45 Mediums" for Gilmartin.

[kab21]

Nice vent. All he's saying that Correia's trade value is pretty much zero. Perhaps he should have said an equivalently ranked (overall rank) Twins hitting prospect + Correia would net an equivalently ranked Braves pitching prospect.

 

the fact is that if the Twins wanted to trade Correia then they aren't going to do much better than the Pedro Hernandez's, Eduardo Escobar's, Duke Welker's or Kris Johnson's. corriea is what he is. A veteran pitcher with no upside that is paid fairly. This isn't (currently) a tradeable commodity.

[Major League Ready]

Nice vent. All he's saying that Correia's trade value is pretty much zero. Perhaps he should have said an equivalently ranked (overall rank) Twins hitting prospect + Correia would net an equivalently ranked Braves pitching prospect.

 

the fact is that if the Twins wanted to trade Correia then they aren't going to do much better than the Pedro Hernandez's, Eduardo Escobar's, Duke Welker's or Kris Johnson's. corriea is what he is. A veteran pitcher with no upside that is paid fairly. This isn't (currently) a tradeable commodity.

 

A lot of people said that about Drew Butera too.

[twinsfan34]

A lot of people said that about Drew Butera too.

 

This.

 

Yes.

 

Same with Ryan Doumit. A catcher who can't catch. And semi-injured, yet, yielded a #10 prospect from another organization. Granted, he was fading, but still 'worst case' among all major publications (or any others I can find)...he was at least #10 or higher.

 

Trades also economically favor the team that's being inquired of. Just like the Royals 'overpaid' a bit for James Shields in the Wil Myers trade.

 

Correia isn't as bad as people think.

 

Let's compare him to recent traded pitchers.

 

Matt Garza. He was only a 1.5 WAR pitcher last year before his trade (and negative WAR afterwards). Granted, he has more 'lights out' possibilities than Correia, but he's not statistically that much better. Actually, Correia was better last year, he was a 1.6 WAR pitcher. Fangraphs: Garza 2.2, Correia 1.3. So either case, less than 1 Win difference if you have Garza vs. Correia.

 

Garza got a top prospect in return, C.J. Edwards (as high as #28 BA).

 

There's a bunch of other pitchers traded at the deadline. Which I will say, could possibly create a more economic imbalance (need)...

 

I don't know if the Braves feel that internally.

 

Either way, Correia is a pitcher who can eat 180+ innings, relatively cheap, and provide 1-3 WAR in doing so. FA WAR cost $7M per WAR. So he's worth (or meets) his $7M contract...

 

I'm not saying Correia is worth a lot, but a prospect at #10 in the Braves org has a greater chance of never making the bigs than one in the Twins org even at #15-20.

 

And Correia is a big league pitcher who can get 180 innings. He's the same WAR as Garza who yielded a top 80 prospect (according to any publication) and other prospects. Corriea doesn't have the sex appeal of Garza, but I'd say a top 120-150 prospect is within reason. For the Braves that'd probably start with La Stella to another '50 grade high (risk)' type of prospect in return.

 

I'm sure there's a decent chart (if I had more time) that is out there or one that can be made from analyzing the pitcher-prospect trades of the last 10 years.

[twinsfan34]

Nice vent. All he's saying that Correia's trade value is pretty much zero. Perhaps he should have said an equivalently ranked (overall rank) Twins hitting prospect + Correia would net an equivalently ranked Braves pitching prospect.

 

the fact is that if the Twins wanted to trade Correia then they aren't going to do much better than the Pedro Hernandez's, Eduardo Escobar's, Duke Welker's or Kris Johnson's. corriea is what he is. A veteran pitcher with no upside that is paid fairly. This isn't (currently) a tradeable commodity.

 

Yeah, you're absolutely right - and I do get what he was trying to say, but his inference/deduction was actually saying Correia's value is NEGATIVE as a Twins 15-20 prospect is not equivalent to a Braves top 15-20 prospect. A Twins Top 15-20 is a Braves Top 3-8 prospect. So Correia would have to drop that value to make it work out.

 

Outside of Sims and Bethancourt, I like Peraza (SS), Caratini ©, Hursh (P), and Parsons (P), but otherwise you're looking at a LOT of guys who are 21 in the GCL to 23-25 years old in low A to AA and not dominating those leagues.

 

Whereas the Twins have teenagers dominating the GCL/Appy/Low A leagues.

 

It's just an entirely different landscape thus why Gilmartin, who's struggled at AA/AAA and is going to be 24 in May was the Braves #10 or better prospect.

[cmathewson]

I don't know what Correia's trade value is, but it can't be much. Ryan was asked at the Winter meetings if there was any interest in Correia and he said no. That might have changed a little with injuries, but not much. Speaking of injuries, his value can only rise between now and the trade deadline. I do expect him to be moved by then. I would just be very surprised if it happened before June.

[nicksaviking]

It's funny that the guy who's contract we all hated last year, we are now suddenly expecting to have good value. I'm not pointing fingers at anyone, because I too hated the contract, and I now too think he has some value.

 

However, Correia does seem like the kind of pitcher (boring innings eater) who fans would hate to give up anything for, but managers would overpay for. Depending on the GM, there probably is some decent value under the right circumstances.

[jokin]

It's funny that the guy who's contract we all hated last year, we are now suddenly expecting to have good value. I'm not pointing fingers at anyone, because I too hated the contract, and I now too think he has some value.

 

However, Correia does seem like the kind of pitcher (boring innings eater) who fans would hate to give up anything for, but managers would overpay for. Depending on the GM, there probably is some decent value under the right circumstances.

 

I don't think anyone thinks he has "good" value, but with a marginal starter like KC, it's really important to move him at a perceived high point, when he has "some" value, and when teams looking for arms to fill out their roster are most motivated to do so- I trust the Twins are on top of all of the potential scenarios for the "right circumstances" to come together to pull the trigger- either in the next 2 weeks, or when the urgent need arises elsewhere, as it inevitably will. It would be nice to get a little something of a parting gift from KC's contract AND open the way for the younger arms to get their rightful chance to become rebuild-building blocks to the next competitive team.