Matt Capps, Bill Smith and the trade that ruined Twins baseball

[Brock Beauchamp]

This was a good post, but my big concern is looking at it in a vacuum. I'm not sure either scenario is necessarily "likely" but both are possible. Contex, however, has to come into play here. In Hugh's case, he was pitching in parks that tended to amplify his weaknesses. That goes away going to TF. He was also in a very unfriendly media environment of NY. Some players have shown the ability to thrive outside of that environment? Is it a guarantee? No, but I do think that the Twins made a calculated gamble that this FA would be more likely to meet or exceed his contract than say Garza, and to be clear I think this is true b/c the Twins put a very high value on the ability to last an entire season, not necessarily the ERA/FIP/etc. at the end of the year. That's not necessarily a bad thing.

 

Three years from now, I'd bet even money on Hughes being worth more wins than Garza. Not a slight on Garza but Hughes' upside and age gives him room to grow.

 

Not saying the Twins shouldn't have signed Garza, just pointing out that past performance and expected future performance are not the same thing, especially when talking about aging pitchers with questionable elbows.

[johnnydakota]

Mike, you are creating artificial barriers here. Our favorite team has plenty of money and roster space to sign Drew if they are so moved, even after signing Pelfrey and Suzuki. It's not an either or thing.

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[johnnydakota]

Three years from now, I'd bet even money on Hughes being worth more wins than Garza. Not a slight on Garza but Hughes' upside and age gives him room to grow.

 

Not saying the Twins shouldn't have signed Garza, just pointing out that past performance and expected future performance are not the same thing, especially when talking about aging pitchers with questionable elbows.

 

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[Brock Beauchamp]

Basically betting the houses money on another Pavano affect?

 

Not quite the same thing... Pavano's issues were mainly injury-related. He just couldn't stay on the field in NY.

 

Hughes, on the other hand, is still in his prime seasons and his issues seem to be ballpark related. Maybe a younger AJ Burnett might be a better comp.

[Steve Penz]

I'm sorry, when has Wilson Ramos been a reliable, healthy Catcher option? Not to say he cant be at times, but Carlos Gomez and/or JJ Hardy have both been far more reliable than him to date, and those are both position players where the Twins have lacked depth for at least one of the last few seasons

 

I can't help but agree here. Ramos has not been an ironman by any stretch of the imagination. Also, I know this will be unpopular but I am so glad Gomez is not on our team. He is a now a great player; I get it. It is really hard for me to cheer for supremely stupid people. The stunt he pulled against the Braves last year that caused the benches to clear was amazing. He could turn into a hall-of-famer and I would never like him. Maybe when they traded him they could have gotten more but I am glad he is gone.

[Steve Penz]

Although it is seen as a horrible fail, it surprises me that the Nishioka acquisition does not get more negative attention. He was brought in as the next SS and it was determined in a minute that he did not have nearly the arm to play the spot. Who evaluated him in Japan and thought that he had it? The fact that he did not hit may have been a mental thing but if you don't have the arm then you don't have it. The repercussions were poor play, negative attitudes in the clubhouse and it seemed like there was also a spike in thoughts that the front office was doing a really poor job. I remember when Nishi missed covering 1B and Pavano covered for him and then went to the dugout and launched a Gatorade tub in anger. It surprises me that one or more people did not get fired from that acquisition.

[cmathewson]

EDIT TO ADD: Put another way, what's more likely: a 28 year old equalling or exceeding his career best performance, or a 31 year old continuing his 5 year established performance minus his standard positional aging curve?

 

The first option, which is why I say Hughes has upside while Drew does not. Also, Hughes has park adjusted upside while Drew does not. Put them together and I would put money on Hughes producing more WAR over the next two years than Drew. Factor in the draft pick, and the case gets better for Hughes.

[YourHouseIsMyHouse]

Smith wouldn't have been as bad a GM if we'd have cut his phone line. His international scouting was brilliant and he was willing to take risks. A number of poor trades, inheritance of a doomed club, coaching, small payroll, and bad drafts are a variety of causes to his failure...you know, besides his incompetence.

[jokin]

Mike, you are creating artificial barriers here. Our favorite team has plenty of money and roster space to sign Drew if they are so moved, even after signing Pelfrey and Suzuki. It's not an either or thing.

 

Our team has money to sign Drew,Morales and E.Santana ,and still have space to pickup some help mid season...But that doesnt mean they will

 

So in a nutshell, it's not an either/or thing, it's more like a neither/nor thing...X 3...?

[bird]

Smith wouldn't have been as bad a GM if we'd have cut his phone line. His international scouting was brilliant and he was willing to take risks. A number of poor trades, inheritance of a doomed club, coaching, small payroll, and bad drafts are a variety of causes to his failure...you know, besides his incompetence.

 

I agree 100% about the phone line, but let's not credit Smith too much. Smith was part of the front office's lobbying effort to get ownership to allow them to expand the budget for improving their international scouting capabilities and assets. Smith played a key role, maybe even a crucial role, over many years, in the building of that capacity.

 

After that, the dozens of employees in that department went to work. None reported directly to Smith, and Smith, by his own admission, never weighed in on a single prospect, because he has very limited aptitude as a talent evaluator. Even at the signing hour, it was not Smith in the role of the primary negotiator, I don't believe. So we should give him some credit for the terrific success internationally, but we shouldn't overstate it.

[Mike Sixel]

The first option, which is why I say Hughes has upside while Drew does not. Also, Hughes has park adjusted upside while Drew does not. Put them together and I would put money on Hughes producing more WAR over the next two years than Drew. Factor in the draft pick, and the case gets better for Hughes.

 

How about Drew vs any Twins SS in the system right now?

[diehardtwinsfan]

How about Drew vs any Twins SS in the system right now?

 

 

To me, this all comes down to opportunity costs. No one doubts that Drew is an upgrade over Florimon. The issue at hand is how much (likely a couple wins) and for what cost. If you assume 1 win is abou 5M, Drew's asking price is substantially more than what he's going to provide, and that's before you throw a mid 40s pick in a deep draft into the mix.

 

I said before I waffle on this, and I still really don't care either way. I suspect that if it was just cost, the Twins would have signed him already, but they are giving up A LOT to get an upgrade, and it isn't as though they are one piece away. This is the type of deal I think they would be making in 2015, or potentially even next year if things break right, but not now.

[Kwak]

In today's Star Tribune, Jim Souhan touched on the subject of SS (sorry, i don't have the link, I read it in a newspaper). In short, it was stated that it was accepted that Florimon can't hit enough, but that Santana was deemed the "SS of the future". This is why the Twins have passed on Drew--they believe they have as good (or better) for and much less money. Don't mention payroll to me--I've expressed my opinion on payroll often enough that the dots can be connected.

[Otto von Ballpark]

This was a good post, but my big concern is looking at it in a vacuum. I'm not sure either scenario is necessarily "likely" but both are possible.

 

Definitely agreed. I approve of the Hughes signing, and I'd probably be in on Drew too (assuming reports of his ~3/30 demands are accurate). When you consider performance as well as age, they are actually not dissimilar moves.

[Major League Ready]

In today's Star Tribune, Jim Souhan touched on the subject of SS (sorry, i don't have the link, I read it in a newspaper). In short, it was stated that it was accepted that Florimon can't hit enough, but that Santana was deemed the "SS of the future". This is why the Twins have passed on Drew--they believe they have as good (or better) for and much less money. Don't mention payroll to me--I've expressed my opinion on payroll often enough that the dots can be connected.

 

I was curious if Santana was playing into their decision mostly because I wondered how confident the F/O is in him defensively.

[Otto von Ballpark]

The first option, which is why I say Hughes has upside while Drew does not. Also, Hughes has park adjusted upside while Drew does not. Put them together and I would put money on Hughes producing more WAR over the next two years than Drew. Factor in the draft pick, and the case gets better for Hughes.

 

I just think you're underestimating the established difference between the two players -- they are 3 years apart, but Drew is starting from a much higher baseline (by rWAR, anyway***). Decline from Drew and improvement from Hughes might make up the difference, but in no way is it likely or a safe bet that Hughes will blow Drew away in that regard. Heck, Hughes is going to need significant improvement to even get back up to 2 rWAR after his poor 2013 showing.

 

I actually like them both, and think they warrant similar consideration and investment from the Twins.

 

*** Why doesn't fWAR like Drew as much? Looks like they might not like his defense...?

[nicksaviking]

Bad trades? What about Tom Brunansky for Tommy Herr? For the current regime, it wasn't technically a trade, but everyone would probably like to go back in time and retract David Ortiz in exchange for spending reduction.

 

Yup, there have been some bad trades, but I'll remember this as one that ruined my childhood. I cried when we watched the news and this was reported. I'm not sure I should admit that though, I was already 10 after all.

 

Nice first post, and even nicer handle. I'm totally for nicknaming Deduno "The Dude."

[bird]

How about Drew vs any Twins SS in the system right now?

 

That's a completely irrelevant question is a vacuum, mike. You know that most people would say he's currently (emphasis here) superior, although Souhan and others are not convinced the Twins view Santana as very far off from being ready.

 

We don't know what the Twins think about Drew. We don't know what the Twins think of Drew compared to their other current or potential near future (emphasis here) options. You can assume they are balking at signing him because they don't want to spend any more money, and you would probably be wrong. You might also assume they haven't signed him because they don't think the potential benefit is worth the current price, and you would probably be right. If I thought signing Drew was a good idea, I'd just have to accept the likelihood that the Twins, for reasons they are not going to share with me, disagree, and I'm not going to find fault with that given how little I know and how much they know.

 

You don't fit these categories, mike, but some of our friends actually believe the only reason he hasn't been signed is because the Twins are running some kind of spreadsheet that helps them never ever put wins and losses ahead of profits. And some actually believe they have some insight that would suggest the Twins are making a poor judgment call about Drew, since it doesn't match theirs

[cmathewson]

*** Why doesn't fWAR like Drew as much? Looks like they might not like his defense...?

 

Bingo. Looking at his FanGraphs defense page, he actually had a good year last year with a 5.8 UZR and a 6.7 UZR/150. But his career numbers are kind of ugly. His net career UZR is -18.8. As recently as 2012, he had a UZR of -7. When I speak of regression, I factor in defense, of course, and I think his defense is more prone to regression than his offense, considering career numbers plus old legs. I don't think his overall WAR will be close to Florimon, but his dWAR will be much worse over the next couple of years.

 

I also think you gloss over variability in his baseline, assuming 2013 is his baseline. I think it's closer to a career year. In six of his eight years, his WAR has been at 2 or below, twice below 0. He's had two career years (2010 and 2013). He's prime for regression from those, not even factoring in age.

 

In three of the last five years, Hughes has had WAR in the 2.5 range. He's much more consistent. Unlike Drew, he's never had a negative WAR. And, also unlike Drew, he is three years younger, just entering his prime this year. Finally, I don't think you can over asses park effects. Something like 12 homers Hughes gave up last year are routine fly balls in Target Field. Something like 12 doubles off Drew's bat in Fenway last year are routine fly balls in Target Field.

[Mike Sixel]

I believe the Twins are making this decision for whatever reason they are making it. I have no idea why they are making it.

 

I don't agree, given the information I have, with the decision.

[cmathewson]

I was curious if Santana was playing into their decision mostly because I wondered how confident the F/O is in him defensively.

 

The F/O has praised his range while talking up what he has to work on. They don't like praising their own prospects, preferring to talk about stuff they have to work on. But I have read a lot of praise. As recently as Twins Fest, Ryan called him a "dark horse" candidate to start with the big club sometime this year.

 

When he is ready, he is a big upgrade on range, according to the scouting reports I've read. And he's an upgrade with the bat, not huge, but something. On another thread, they talk about trading for Gregorius. I think Santana is a good comp for him with the bat, with more speed and range.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Bingo. Looking at his FanGraphs defense page, he actually had a good year last year with a 5.8 UZR and a 6.7 UZR/150. But his career numbers are kind of ugly. His net career UZR is -18.8. As recently as 2012, he had a UZR of -7. When I speak of regression, I factor in defense, of course, and I think his defense is more prone to regression than his offense, considering career numbers plus old legs. I don't think his overall WAR will be close to Florimon, but his dWAR will be much worse over the next couple of years.

 

Interesting that Drew's negative UZR is almost entirely 2008 and earlier, though (his first 2.5 seasons). He's been solidly positive UZR 4 of the last 5 years, with the only exception being his 2012 recovery year. His UZR/150 rates during that time actually beat Florimon's 2013 rate (which is another data point which make me question whether Florimon is any kind of special defender at short or merely an average one).

 

I also think you gloss over variability in his baseline, assuming 2013 is his baseline. I think it's closer to a career year. In six of his eight years, his WAR has been at 2 or below, twice below 0. He's had two career years (2010 and 2013). He's prime for regression from those, not even factoring in age.

 

I wasn't using 2013 as Drew's baseline. I was using rWAR (B-Ref WAR), and if you toss out 2012 and prorate 2011 for the ankle, Drew has 3+ rWAR every season after 2007. Although even by fWAR (Fangraphs WAR), if you prorate 2011, Drew is likewise 3+ WAR every year after 2009, and twice was 4+ (prorating 2013). If I am reading Fangraphs correctly, he's cumulatively above *average* (not just replacement) on both sides of the ball after 2007, even before a positional adjustment.

 

I wouldn't necessarily pay Drew like he's a guaranteed 3+ WAR player, but then again, 2/20 or even 3/30 isn't paying him like he's a guaranteed 3+ WAR player.

[Guest USAFChief]

The F/O has praised his range while talking up what he has to work on. They don't like praising their own prospects, preferring to talk about stuff they have to work on. But I have read a lot of praise. As recently as Twins Fest, Ryan called him a "dark horse" candidate to start with the big club sometime this year.

 

When he is ready, he is a big upgrade on range, according to the scouting reports I've read. And he's an upgrade with the bat, not huge, but something. On another thread, they talk about trading for Gregorius. I think Santana is a good comp for him with the bat, with more speed and range.

Isn't the one talking point in favor of Florimon his range? And Santana's going to be "a big upgrade" over that?

[Major League Ready]

Isn't the one talking point in favor of Florimon his range? And Santana's going to be "a big upgrade" over that?

 

I read (can't remember where) that his range is ridiculous. That would be fun to watch. His errors have been high. Does anyone know if that problem is trending in the right direction?

[ashbury]

This is the type of deal I think they would be making in 2015, or potentially even next year

 

"YOU! What planet is this??? ... Okay, then what year?"

[bird]

I read (can't remember where) that his range is ridiculous. That would be fun to watch. His errors have been high. Does anyone know if that problem is trending in the right direction?

 

On today's radio broadcast, Gladden spoke about his conversation with Brad Steil in which Steil described Santana as the most athletic prospect in the system, more athletic than even Buxton apparently, but then suggested that Engelb Vielma wasn't far behind either of them.

[jokin]

On today's radio broadcast, Gladden spoke about his conversation with Brad Steil in which Steil described Santana as the most athletic prospect in the system, more athletic than even Buxton apparently, but then suggested that Engelb Vielma wasn't far behind either of them.

 

Where would Polanco and Minier rank in that list? I have no knowledge of

Vielma's athleticism, but it seems rather unlikely that anyone in the organization, even Santana, is more athletic than Buxton.

[howieramone1406390264]

Where would Polanco and Minier rank in that list? I have no knowledge of

Vielma's athleticism, but it seems rather unlikely that anyone in the organization, even Santana, is more athletic than Buxton.

 

Yeah, kind of hard to believe our favorite team's farm director.

[Kwak]

Yeah, kind of hard to believe our favorite team's farm director.

 

Might this man have been in charge of the farm system during the previous decade? If so, that might explain why the cupboard was found bare in 2011.

[johnnydakota]

On today's radio broadcast, Gladden spoke about his conversation with Brad Steil in which Steil described Santana as the most athletic prospect in the system, more athletic than even Buxton apparently, but then suggested that Engelb Vielma wasn't far behind either of them.

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