Article: 2014 Draft Board v.1.0

[chuchadoro]

I never compared Michael and Turner - in fact I called them very different players - but I did draw parallels, fair or not.

 

I can't speak for everyone but would assume most understood what you meant in the article. I was just agreeing with you that the inevitable comparison of the two is unfair. I'm definitely not high on him right now, though.

[twinsin17]

Tyler Beede dominated again today and now has and ERA of .82, 14.73 K/9, 9 K/BB and a .45 WHIP in his two starts (both wins). Stat lovers are salivating everywhere. Its just two games but he has been the top college arm thus far, Rodon included. The knock on him going in to this year was his control and if he continues to show it is improved come draft time he will surpass Hoffman and may make a run at Rodon for top pick. He already has a plus FB and curve and scouts say his change up flashes plus. If he can continue to hone the change and maintain his new found control we are talking about a true #1 starter/ace.

[Paul Pleiss]

I don't know how you do this draft coverage. last you you were spot on with pics going 2nd round and beyond. Impressive skills grasshopper. Mix in your strong ability to bro-hug while intoxicated, we've got a winning combination. Strong.

[gunnarthor]

Tyler Beede dominated again today and now has and ERA of .82, 14.73 K/9, 9 K/BB and a .45 WHIP in his two starts (both wins). Stat lovers are salivating everywhere. Its just two games but he has been the top college arm thus far, Rodon included. The knock on him going in to this year was his control and if he continues to show it is improved come draft time he will surpass Hoffman and may make a run at Rodon for top pick. He already has a plus FB and curve and scouts say his change up flashes plus. If he can continue to hone the change and maintain his new found control we are talking about a true #1 starter/ace.

 

This is just great news for us even if he doesn't fall to us. Anything to make this draft deeper helps. And I really, really hope Miami goes the cheap route at #2.

[Butterfingers8]

And I really, really hope Miami goes the cheap route at #2.

 

Out of curiosity, who would you consider the cheap route at #2?

[gunnarthor]

Out of curiosity, who would you consider the cheap route at #2?

Two reasons - first, their owner is a pretty cheap guy who is always looking to save a buck. Second, they have three picks between 32 and 42 as well so it might make some sense to take a guy at #2 who might be a top 10 talent but would save them a few million to use on those three picks. (For example, Miami brass might really like local HS arm Toussaint, who has some potential but probably is a reach at 2. Take him and save 3million there and then nab some falling talent in the supplemental draft).

 

And, after I wrote that, I realized you said "who" not "why". Oh well.

[Butterfingers8]

I meant which player(s). I fully understand that Miami has historically taken the cheap route and the reasons a team would take such a route. I am just curious who these players might be.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I meant which player(s). I fully understand that Miami has historically taken the cheap route and the reasons a team would take such a route. I am just curious who these players might be.

 

I would say anyone who is 11-20 on this list would be a good candidate. There's a lot that goes into it. Houston essentially did that with Correa the year we took Buxton. Their scouts were convinced that he was going to be a stud and turned around and got him for below slot. They then turned around and grabbed some guys with their other picks and signed them overslot. Thus far, it has worked out for them.

[twinsin17]

I have to believe Aaron Nola will be given strong consideration at #5, especially if the first 4 picks are Rodon/Beede/Hoffman/Kolek. He was a (more successful) teammate to Ryan Eades last year so its safe to say we have an extensive history scouting him and Nola is widely regarded to have excellent command of a strong 3 pitch FB/slide/change up mix. He may not have the highest ceiling at 5 but he may be the best bet to reach his ceiling of the remaining starters. He could be viewed as someone who would move through the system quickly a la Wacha/Gausman/Gray/Stephenson and be ready to help in just a couple years. Nola would be especially valuable if we think he could be signed below slot value.

[gunnarthor]

I have to believe Aaron Nola will be given strong consideration at #5, especially if the first 4 picks are Rodon/Beede/Hoffman/Kolek. He was a (more successful) teammate to Ryan Eades last year so its safe to say we have an extensive history scouting him and Nola is widely regarded to have excellent command of a strong 3 pitch FB/slide/change up mix. He may not have the highest ceiling at 5 but he may be the best bet to reach his ceiling of the remaining starters. He could be viewed as someone who would move through the system quickly a la Wacha/Gausman/Gray/Stephenson and be ready to help in just a couple years. Nola would be especially valuable if we think he could be signed below slot value.

 

His write up at mlb.com reads a lot like Kyle Gibson. Not a bad thing even though TJ has slowed Gibson down. I wouldn't be against it but I think the Twins are pretty reliable BPA and I don't think Nola will be that. He could be this years Shipley - sorta wanted him but a bit of a reach and then someone else takes him and I'm like "dang, nice pick."

[cmb0252]

I have to believe Aaron Nola will be given strong consideration at #5, especially if the first 4 picks are Rodon/Beede/Hoffman/Kolek. He was a (more successful) teammate to Ryan Eades last year so its safe to say we have an extensive history scouting him and Nola is widely regarded to have excellent command of a strong 3 pitch FB/slide/change up mix. He may not have the highest ceiling at 5 but he may be the best bet to reach his ceiling of the remaining starters. He could be viewed as someone who would move through the system quickly a la Wacha/Gausman/Gray/Stephenson and be ready to help in just a couple years. Nola would be especially valuable if we think he could be signed below slot value.

 

If the Twins took Nola at #5 I would be pretty upset. While he is a fine pitcher, a player selected in the top 5 needs at least one premium tool. Nola has #3 pitcher written all over him.

[nicksaviking]

If the Twins took Nola at #5 I would be pretty upset. While he is a fine pitcher, a player selected in the top 5 needs at least one premium tool. Nola has #3 pitcher written all over him.

 

I would too, his write up may be similar to Gibson, but Gibson wouldn't have been a good value at #5 either. And that's aside from the fact that Nola's write up also sounds like Alex Wimmers. In fact the write up might actually have been recycled from Alex Wimmers.

 

If the first positive listed for a pitcher is "good control" I'll pass. Saying a pitcher has good control is like saying "she has a good personality" instead of "she's hot" about your buddy's girlfriend.

 

The first positive attribute about a pitcher I want at # 5 is "overpowering" "misses bats" or "devastating breaking ball."

[Lonestar]

5) Trae Turner, SS, NC St

The old college shortstop, eh? Do yourself a favor and check how many of the 30 starting shortstops came the major college route. I'll help you out: not many.

Tulo comes to mind. Sort of like how many aces come from Venezuela or the Dominican? Not many. but would you turn one down or stop looking there.

 

While Turner should stick at shortstop at the professional level, he has a lot of value in his legs. With plus-plus speed, Turner could fit nicely at the top of the Twins order. There are questions about his bat (and strength), but he's shown well early this college season.

His defense at SS is reportedly above average. His hitting stats compare well to Tulo and Evan Longoria and Chuck Knoblauch and they had the advantage of aluminum bats. Of course he might not hit, but there are no questions of his hit tool compared to Gatewood's.

 

He's added 10 pounds of muscle. There is no question about his strength. There is some question of his power, but it's not like he is Ben Revere. How much power does a SS need? The median Iso P for a qualifying MLB SS was .115 last year. The median SLG was .381. Emphasizing SLG over OBP is [suboptimal].

 

My take: let's bring that college shortstop conversation even closer to home then let's bring it straight to Tobacco Road. Would you be gun-shy about making the same mistake that was made when Levi Michael was drafted? Would you trust that same signing scout? Interesting questions to consider, obviously, and while I think they are two completely different players, the microscope will be fixed closer on Trae Turner.

That paragraph is much below your usual standards, Jeremy.

 

Anyone not named Rodon will have a ton of scrutiny.

 

Let's see. An above average defensive SS with a hit tool proven in major college competition. 80 speed and the ability to use it. I will be surprised if he is available at #5. It could make for an agonizing decision.

[Uncle Jesse's Mullet]

I would be very happy if we got Kolek. Nobody can have too much pitching, but given the state of the Twins big league rotation these last few years (and, more than likely, for the next two-ish years to come) I literally do not think it's possible for the Twins to acquire too many arms.

[Vervehound]

If the Twins took Nola at #5 I would be pretty upset. While he is a fine pitcher, a player selected in the top 5 needs at least one premium tool. Nola has #3 pitcher written all over him.

 

nola bears watching this spring. he wouldn't be my favorite choice but I admit i'm curious about him. while he has the stuff of a number 3 (and it's solid stuff), his command/control and overall pitchability make it play up and he could be a number 2 if things fall right. that's a pretty good pick for number 5 in a draft - a guy that can rocket to the bigs with potential to be a number 2? he's at least on the list.

 

I can't believe for a second that weaver would rate ahead of nola.

[Kwak]

Given how much the Twins shelled-out for pitching this off-season (and the value obtained!), I'm hoping they can select a potential top-of-the-rotation pitcher too. A team can win in the playoffs with top starting pitchers and a bit of offense--but they often lose with mediocre pitching and solid offense.

[cmb0252]

nola bears watching this spring. he wouldn't be my favorite choice but I admit i'm curious about him. while he has the stuff of a number 3 (and it's solid stuff), his command/control and overall pitchability make it play up and he could be a number 2 if things fall right. that's a pretty good pick for number 5 in a draft - a guy that can rocket to the bigs with potential to be a number 2? he's at least on the list.

 

I can't believe for a second that weaver would rate ahead of nola.

 

You are way more optimistic about his stuff than I. Unless his change up magically becomes a 70+ pitch I just don't see it. Also, I could careless how fast he can get to the bigs. Wimmers and Danny Hultzen were both guys pegged to be safe quick to the bigs arms. An injury and mechanical issues have wiped away any value that is given because of "quick to the majors" status.

 

I do agree though that it is hard to believe weaver above Nola.

[Lonestar]

An injury and mechanical issues have wiped away any value that is given because of "quick to the majors" status.

That applies to all pitchers. Hence the expression TINSTAAPP

[Butterfingers8]

Like most Twins fans I would like to see the Twins take one of the top four pitchers (Rodon, Hoffman, Kolek, Beede) in the draft, but if they are all taken come pick five, or even if they are not and Alex Jackson is still there, would you like to see the Twins take a chance on him rather than say Tyler Beede?

[nicksaviking]

That applies to all pitchers. Hence the expression TINSTAAPP

 

Wimmers wasn't looking like a fast track guy long before he got injured. The "quick to the majors" bit is much less predictable than draft wonks pretend. Still as cmb0252 said, I could care less about how quick they get to the majors, get the best upside. Nola will not have the most upside, not sure Turner will either.

[kab21]

I am not very enamored by Beede (in the top 5). Kolek yes, but Beede isn't very interesting (yet). Alex Jackson is a guy I want to know more about regardless if the Twins need him. Need is not even part of the equation in the first rd because if first rd'ers hit then you find places to play them.

[nicksaviking]

I am not very enamored by Beede (in the top 5). Kolek yes, but Beede isn't very interesting (yet). Alex Jackson is a guy I want to know more about regardless if the Twins need him. Need is not even part of the equation in the first rd because if first rd'ers hit then you find places to play them.

 

I'll get interested in Jackson once it's been widely disseminated that he will not be catching at the MLB level. Taking a HS catcher has been an awful choice for teams since Mauer and Brian McCann were selected in 2000-01. The best has been Jared Saltalimacchia with a whopping 6.2 WAR. The next best might be Hank Conger. Stay away, guys need to learn to catch in college, not in the minors.

[maxisagod]

Like most Twins fans I would like to see the Twins take one of the top four pitchers (Rodon, Hoffman, Kolek, Beede) in the draft, but if they are all taken come pick five, or even if they are not and Alex Jackson is still there, would you like to see the Twins take a chance on him rather than say Tyler Beede?

 

At this point yes, I'll take Jackson over Beede. lack of control and great stuff could one day make him an ace or a shooter hunt. Jackson bat will bring him to the Majors, at catcher or right field.

[howieramone1406390264]

I like Turner as our SS of the future or Jackson as our C of the future and believe both will be available at 5. I view Kolek as an insurance ace, but can't see him getting past King Theo.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

I'll get interested in Jackson once it's been widely disseminated that he will not be catching at the MLB level. Taking a HS catcher has been an awful choice for teams since Mauer and Brian McCann were selected in 2000-01. The best has been Jared Saltalimacchia with a whopping 6.2 WAR. The next best might be Hank Conger. Stay away, guys need to learn to catch in college, not in the minors.

 

Excellent point. That was my argument last year against taking McGuire. I'd put Jackson in a different category, though. I think Jackson could end up at 3B if the catching thing doesn't work out. The weird thing is the more advanced his bat shows, the less chance he catches... which would suggest that if he's going very high, he's probably not a catcher professionally.

[Butterfingers8]

I view Kolek as an insurance ace, but can't see him getting past King Theo.

 

Stewart got past him last year. I realize that there is not a hitter of Kris Bryant's readiness and quality in this draft. However, I think theo is interested in finding college players in the draft that can make it to the majors quickly. I say this because he seems to be investing a lot of money in the International market for very young, raw players that can develop over time. I think the idea of a "sure thing" out of college appeals to him more in the draft. Just my observation.

[nicksaviking]

Excellent point. That was my argument last year against taking McGuire. I'd put Jackson in a different category, though. I think Jackson could end up at 3B if the catching thing doesn't work out. The weird thing is the more advanced his bat shows, the less chance he catches... which would suggest that if he's going very high, he's probably not a catcher professionally.

 

Agreed, the sooner it is assumed he won't catch, the more likely it is that his bat is for real. That's the point I'm interested in him. I wouldn't want him "working" on his defense in the minors at the expense of his offensive development.

[Ozziedavisfan]

I just hope that since this is a deep draft, I would like Kolek, Jackson, or turner in that order. And hopeing that we get talent latter on somebody who thinks to much of themselves.

[Butterfingers8]

^same except I'd slide Beede between Jackson and Turner

[Kwak]

Agreed, the sooner it is assumed he won't catch, the more likely it is that his bat is for real. That's the point I'm interested in him. I wouldn't want him "working" on his defense in the minors at the expense of his offensive development.

 

Catcher isn't my first choice--but I can't see why a guy can't develop his defense simultaneously with his offense. It seems to me that all position players are required to develop both offense and defense.