Mystery teams in on Drew

[tobi0040]

To take out the Fenway Effect, why wouldn't you just look at his road splits from last year?

 

136 OPS+ at Fenway

94 OPS+ everywhere else

 

He's league average at best away from Fenway. That's not worth $10-13 mill plus a draft pick.

 

Why is it a head scratcher? Everyone acknowledges that Drew is a better player than Florimon at least to some degree. I'll bet you'd even get most of us anti-Drew folks to agree that a one year deal would be just fine because money is not a factor in 2013, but we don't konw if it may be next year, or the year after. None of us want to be on the hook for $20-26 million over the final two years of his contract. He cannot hit lefties, and he was not good away from Fenway, saying nothing about how he can't stay on the field. The Twins are willing to spend money these days it seems, I'd much rather that money earmarked for 2015 and 2016 go to a player who is much less likely to be platooning by then. There will be free agents next year too after all.

 

So you want me to judge Drew on 80 games away from Fenway in one year? I would rather view his 930 games with a .764 OPS, 163 basis points above Florimon's.

 

Regarding the point that Drew can't hit lefties, he has a career .681 OPS against lefties, Pedro is at .515. We should be embarrassed to have Pedro Florimon as our starting SS.

[nicksaviking]

So you want me to judge Drew on 80 games away from Fenway in one year? I would rather view his 930 games with a .764 OPS, 163 basis points above Florimon's.

 

Regarding the point that Drew can't hit lefties, he has a career .681 OPS against lefties, Pedro is at .515. We should be embarrassed to have Pedro Florimon as our starting SS.

 

Yes, I think his performance last year and the year prior are most likely better comps than his prime years nearly a half decade ago. He's declining, and clearly. You don't really think his fall off a cliff vs. LHP and his huge uptick in strikeouts are a two year abnormality?

 

Using career stats is what got teams into trouble the past two decades. You don't pay a guy for what he DID do, you pay a guy for what you expect him TO do. This is not the same guy that played in AZ. Recent performance is more indicative to future performance than stuff he did 4-5 years ago.

 

I agree, it is embarassing that Florimon is the Twins starting SS, but making a rash decision and throwing 2015 and 2016 payroll down the drain to cover it up is rash. The Twins mistake at SS needs to be fixed with a stronger stratagy, trying to cover it up with a very expensive declining player is simply impulsive.

[amjgt]

My case in the original Stephen Drew thread (early January)....

 

Thyrlos said: Drew mashed RHP in the rate of .284/.377/.498 last season, but a. do you want to pay $3/35M for a platoon player (even though he will take the majority of PAs) and b. (even more importantly) will the manager platoon him, because he should?

I replied:

So, you're paying $12M + $0.5M for a kick-ass Shortstop.

 

It's the perfect case for platoons. Pay big money one guy who's going to be really good 75% of the time and pay league minimum to a guy who's going to be just fine the remaining 25%.

 

.850 OPS 75% of the time + .650 OPS 25% of the time = .800 OPS

 

Pay for the 75% and manage the 25%

 

----------------------------------

 

I think the price tag has come down a little since my original thoughts

 

So now you're paying $10M + $0.5M to have Drew face all the righty starters (and be a good bench bat on days we face lefties) and have Florimon face all lefty starters

 

Florimon can be used as a defensive replacement on days Drew starts and Drew can be used as a good bench bat on days when Florimon starts.

[tobi0040]

Yes, I think his performance last year and the year prior are most likely better comps than his prime years nearly a half decade ago. He's declining, and clearly. You don't really think his fall off a cliff vs. LHP and his huge uptick in strikeouts are a two year abnormality?

 

Using career stats is what got teams into trouble the past two decades. You don't pay a guy for what he DID do, you pay a guy for what you expect him TO do. This is not the same guy that played in AZ. Recent performance is more indicative to future performance than stuff he did 4-5 years ago.

 

I agree, it is embarassing that Florimon is the Twins starting SS, but making a rash decision and throwing 2015 and 2016 payroll down the drain to cover it up is rash. The Twins mistake at SS needs to be fixed with a stronger stratagy, trying to cover it up with a very expensive declining player is simply impulsive.

 

 

You can choose to look at 8.5% of his career games. I disagree with that approach. And I think you are missing the point, just about any metric has Drew superior to Florimon. Lefties, Righties, etc. I agree we do need a better long term answer at SS, which will likely be addressed through the draft and is 3 years away from contributing.

 

In the meantime, signing Drew should not change any other payroll related discussion. Our payroll is at $82M. 52% of our revenue this year should be close to $125-130M ($215M revenue last year, plus new TV reveune and all star revenue), and we have $12M off the books after this season in Josh and Correa with rookies likely filling those positions.

[Riverbrian]

We should be embarrassed to have Pedro Florimon as our starting SS.

 

Drew hits better than Florimon but not 8 figures more. Florimon is top 3 with the glove and its nice to have that at the SS position when you don't have Tulo or Segura.

 

Nothing embarrassing about Florimon at all.

 

Its easy to compare OPS+ between Drew and Floriomon because they are SS's and say done deal. But you are comparing 10 Million a year (Drew)and 6 figures (Florimon).

 

Now compare Drew's career numbers with someone else who makes 8 figures and it really doesn't make a lot of sense.

 

If the Twins have 10 million to spend on offense... By all means... But spend it on someone who actually produces offense. Beltran or Cruz makes more sense because they consistently produce... You know... Actual offense... Not just average numbers like Drew... that just happen to be better than the current guy but not better than most guys.

 

Don't spend 10 million plus on lack of positional supply. Spend it on someone who actually... You know... Rakes.

[cmathewson]

My case in the original Stephen Drew thread (early January)....

 

Thyrlos said: Drew mashed RHP in the rate of .284/.377/.498 last season, but a. do you want to pay $3/35M for a platoon player (even though he will take the majority of PAs) and b. (even more importantly) will the manager platoon him, because he should?

I replied:

So, you're paying $12M + $0.5M for a kick-ass Shortstop.

 

It's the perfect case for platoons. Pay big money one guy who's going to be really good 75% of the time and pay league minimum to a guy who's going to be just fine the remaining 25%.

 

.850 OPS 75% of the time + .650 OPS 25% of the time = .800 OPS

 

Pay for the 75% and manage the 25%

 

----------------------------------

 

I think the price tag has come down a little since my original thoughts

 

So now you're paying $10M + $0.5M to have Drew face all the righty starters (and be a good bench bat on days we face lefties) and have Florimon face all lefty starters

 

Florimon can be used as a defensive replacement on days Drew starts and Drew can be used as a good bench bat on days when Florimon starts.

 

You assume that the Twins have a shortstop who can platoon with Drew. Florimon was even worse against lefties than Drew last year, and every year. His platoon splits are similar to Drew's but worse. That's not a platoon. That's two switch hitters who should probably stick to left-handed hitting.

[Willihammer]

Morales would probably bump Kubel or Parmelee, and the 300-400 PAs they're likely to share, while upgrading the production by something like .100 points of OPS.

 

Cruz would have to split time with Hammer (who is equally productive), Arcia (who we want playing everyday), and maybe a few AB's from Herrmann. Marginal upgrade.

 

Florimon had 650 PAs last year. Gardy's already promised him his job. He's a .601 batter. Drew is a career .777 batter. But even if Drew declines into a .675 batter, spread over 650 PAs / year, that is a good marginal upgrade. He's the best value out there, IMO.

[tobi0040]

Drew hits better than Florimon but not 8 figures more. Florimon is top 3 with the glove and its nice to have that at the SS position when you don't have Tulo or Segura.

 

Nothing embarrassing about Florimon at all.

 

Its easy to compare OPS+ between Drew and Floriomon because they are SS's and say done deal. But you are comparing 10 Million a year (Drew)and 6 figures (Florimon).

 

Now compare Drew's career numbers with someone else who makes 8 figures and it really doesn't make a lot of sense.

 

If the Twins have 10 million to spend on offense... By all means... But spend it on someone who actually produces offense. Beltran or Cruz makes more sense because they consistently produce... You know... Actual offense... Not just average numbers like Drew... that just happen to be better than the current guy but not better than most guys.

 

Don't spend 10 million plus on lack of positional supply. Spend it on someone who actually... You know... Rakes.

 

Who is available on the market, that will get you 30-40 additional hits, 25 additional extra base hits over there replacement, for under $10M a year? Keep in mind under no circumstance are we going to sign a CF or 3B. I am also betting we don't want to add a corner OF because internally we want to give at-bats to Hicks and Arcia and are hoping for Willingham to have some trade value.

 

To me, the obvious spots are SS and potentially DH. I don't see a huge, cheap upgrade out there. I think SS is either Florimon or Drew.

 

Beltran signed for $15M more than Arcia and will likely not have 40 additional hits and 25 more extra base hits. Cruz will sign for more than $10M a year IMO.

[Willihammer]

Drew might not be worth $12m/yr in a vacuum but to this team he is.

[Dman]

Drew might not be worth $12m/yr in a vacuum but to this team he is.

 

There is no question offensively he is way better than Florimon but here is the deal as I see it. When players are commanding big money the Twins\TR do look for value. They appear to value players that haven't been hurt a lot, are consistent performers and good club house guys. To them that appears to equal good value. Drew does not meet all of those requirements so I do not see the Twin\TR being interested. When big money is involved TR likes to make safe bets and I don't see Drew as a safe bet.

 

Now if Drew were coming off a bad season and recently injured and looking to sign for 2 years at 4 million per year that sounds like a TR calculated risk at a bounce back year kind of thing that he loves to do every year. To me that seems to be the two ways they operate in FA and Drew doesn't fit.

 

Plus add in the fact he costs them a draft pick and I really don't see it happening. As the Twins are all about player development and building from within. Yes they have the money and if they signed him to a two or three year deal it would not impact what they can do the next few years. He would be an upgrade but the value the Twins seek isn't there and really quite frankly most of the other teams in baseball appear to agree as he remains unsigned.

[tobi0040]

Yes they have the money and if they signed him to a two or three year deal it would not impact what they can do the next few years. He would be an upgrade but the value the Twins seek isn't thereQUOTE]

 

Unfortunately, I agree with your logic here. This is all a bit of a game to TR in a sense. Finding value, getting $7M of production for $4M. With Drew it was never going to be like that.

 

I think he received a mandate to improve the pitching staff and has not been able to find the magical deal for a lineup. the mandate, unfortunately is not about wins.

 

So they are content rolling out Suzuki at C, Florimon at SS, God knows at DH, Presley or Mastro may get 2 months in CF. Instead of the mandate being about wins, it seems it was lets spend "just enough" to say we spent money, while the reality is our payroll is closer to the Metrodome territory than the first year in Target field, and trending down.

 

If the mandate was about wins, we could have signed Drew and Morales/Beltran/Cruz at DH. Our payroll would still be well under 52% of revenue, we would not have horrible long term contracts, and nobody can argue we would not have a much better lineup.

[Monkeypaws]

Florimon had 650 PAs last year. Gardy's already promised him his job. He's a .601 batter. Drew is a career .777 batter. But even if Drew declines into a .675 batter, spread over 650 PAs / year, that is a good marginal upgrade. He's the best value out there, IMO.

 

Florimon had 446 PAs last year.

[Mike Sixel]

Why sign Pelfrey, when there are actual SP candidates, but not sign Drew, when there are no SS candidates? I am baffled by that.....

 

I am more baffled why the Yanks have not signed him to play 2B.

[Mike Sixel]

btw...."worth it"?

 

A WAR in FA now costs over $7MM per year....the new normal. People need to adjust their expectations.

[Dman]

Yes they have the money and if they signed him to a two or three year deal it would not impact what they can do the next few years. He would be an upgrade but the value the Twins seek isn't thereQUOTE]

 

Unfortunately, I agree with your logic here. This is all a bit of a game to TR in a sense. Finding value, getting $7M of production for $4M. With Drew it was never going to be like that.

 

I think he received a mandate to improve the pitching staff and has not been able to find the magical deal for a lineup. the mandate, unfortunately is not about wins.

 

So they are content rolling out Suzuki at C, Florimon at SS, God knows at DH, Presley or Mastro may get 2 months in CF. Instead of the mandate being about wins, it seems it was lets spend "just enough" to say we spent money, while the reality is our payroll is closer to the Metrodome territory than the first year in Target field, and trending down.

 

If the mandate was about wins, we could have signed Drew and Morales/Beltran/Cruz at DH. Our payroll would still be well under 52% of revenue, we would not have horrible long term contracts, and nobody can argue we would not have a much better lineup.

 

I kind of agree with the mandate on pitching as I think ownership wants the team to at least be in the game after the first inning and it has to be quite embarrassing to have the ERA this staff had last year. That ERA is an indictment of the front office and TR had to do something to fix it even if it meant bending his principles which I think he did on the Hughes deal as it seemed like an overpay from the normal Twins perspective. Even after all they did in FA the staff is only marginally better with a lot of question marks yet again.

 

There wasn't a lot to choose from for position players this year and the Twins have quite a bit of young talent on the way up so i guess I understand there reticence to go after guys until things settle in more for this team.

 

They can only afford one more bad or marginally bad year though and they are going to start losing there fan base. It was hard to watch them at the end last year. Hopefully the young talent next year brings everybody back and they start filling the holes.

[Mike Sixel]

they have already significantly lost their fan base....check out the expected attendance, even with the ASG.

 

People come back the year after a good year, not the first good year. If they aren't better this year, they are looking at at least one more year of declining attendance. It's what happens to teams that don't do well. Deservedly, imo.

[Dman]

btw...."worth it"?

 

A WAR in FA now costs over $7MM per year....the new normal. People need to adjust their expectations.

 

Yep and with the new TV money in play that will only go up. You have to convince the FO on that value quotient though.

[Dman]

they have already significantly lost their fan base....check out the expected attendance, even with the ASG.

 

People come back the year after a good year, not the first good year. If they aren't better this year, they are looking at at least one more year of declining attendance. It's what happens to teams that don't do well. Deservedly, imo.

 

 

Unfortunately I don't think they are going to very good again this year and after that they should start moving up if the prospects pan out.

[TheLeviathan]

Other than the loss of a pick, I could use all the same reasons to argue the Twins shouldn't have signed Nolasco. He doesn't make them good enough to justify handing out that kind of contract when the team isn't going anywhere right now anyway.

 

Nolasco is unlikely to decline as quickly and has a better track record of success. Drew has a lot of shaky parts of his background, injury history, and has already entered his decline years.

 

Signing Stephen Drew is a patch. The Twins, very soon, are going to need to address SS. I'm just hoping they can do more than patch it. And if they need to patch it, I'd rather patch it at that time to maximize the player's ability to contribute.

[howieramone1406390264]

Why sign Pelfrey, when there are actual SP candidates, but not sign Drew, when there are no SS candidates? I am baffled by that.....

 

I am more baffled why the Yanks have not signed him to play 2B.

 

It's always going to be baffling when you're comparing apples to oranges.

[twinsfan34]

If you signed him to a 1-2 year deal, you would likely get another 2nd round pick (or 50% chance at a 1st round pick) back at the end of that contract.

 

The Twins have the best farm system in baseball, and the worst major league product (sans Marlins, Cubs and Astros) in baseball. At some point you can sacrifice a single 2nd round pick in order to greatly improve your major league talent/roster. The Twins window is going to open very quickly with the arrival of Sano, Buxton, Meyer, Rosario, etc etc over the next couple years, get players that can help now and in the near future instead of 2nd round guy who likely will never make the majors, or won't make it for several years.

 

HAs to be 2 years minimum under new CBA to get a compensatory pick + he has to refuse the qualifying offer of around $15M in 2016 for a 34 year old SS...

 

 

I would bet against any team paying him over the qualifying offer in 2016 (likely $15-16M per) if they aren't willing to get him cheaper now for the next 2+ younger years of his career.

[jokin]

Nolasco is unlikely to decline as quickly and has a better track record of success. Drew has a lot of shaky parts of his background, injury history, and has already entered his decline years.

 

Signing Stephen Drew is a patch. The Twins, very soon, are going to need to address SS. I'm just hoping they can do more than patch it. And if they need to patch it, I'd rather patch it at that time to maximize the player's ability to contribute.

 

1) The Dodgers had such confidence in Nolasco, they skipped his start in the playoffs, and then signed a pretty "shaky" Dan Haren to take his place?

2)Drew's injury history consists mostly of one horrific injury sliding into home plate. See- Hardy, JJ for decline phase.

3) When the Twins offensive boat has such a big hole in it that it's guaranteed to sink over the next 2 years, a Drew Patch amidships, now, maximizes the chances of keeping the Good Ship afloat until we replace the Keel @ SS on a permanent basis.

[twinsfan34]

You can choose to look at 8.5% of his career games. I disagree with that approach. And I think you are missing the point, just about any metric has Drew superior to Florimon. Lefties, Righties, etc. I agree we do need a better long term answer at SS, which will likely be addressed through the draft and is 3 years away from contributing.

 

In the meantime, signing Drew should not change any other payroll related discussion. Our payroll is at $82M. 52% of our revenue this year should be close to $125-130M ($215M revenue last year, plus new TV reveune and all star revenue), and we have $12M off the books after this season in Josh and Correa with rookies likely filling those positions.

 

You also need to more heavily weigh games post injury and most recent games. He's not 25 anymore and he's not pre-ankle injury.

 

Those numbers are long gone...

[twinsfan34]

Why sign Pelfrey, when there are actual SP candidates, but not sign Drew, when there are no SS candidates? I am baffled by that.....

 

I am more baffled why the Yanks have not signed him to play 2B.

 

or SS next year after Mr. Yankee retires.

[cmathewson]

1) The Dodgers had such confidence in Nolasco, they skipped his start in the playoffs, and then signed a pretty "shaky" Dan Haren to take his place?

2)Drew's injury history consists mostly of one horrific injury sliding into home plate. See- Hardy, JJ for decline phase.

3) When the Twins offensive boat has such a big hole in it that it's guaranteed to sink over the next 2 years, a Drew Patch amidships, now, maximizes the chances of keeping the Good Ship afloat until we replace the Keel @ SS on a permanent basis.

 

One case does not an argument make. Bill James has a long and thorough analysis of the risks of investing in middle infielders past 30. The upshot: The vast majority are not worth it after age 32. There are exceptions, but they tend to be guys who are wiry and slight of build: Vizquel, Smith, Larkin, Trammel. For each one of those, there are 10 guys like Guzman or Knoblauch who started their declines at at 30 and were effectively done by age 32.

[twinsfan34]

 

I would not hand out 2nd picks every year, but when you have no MLB talent on the depth chart and you aren't mortgaging the team, have the money, etc. I wouldn't dwell on a 2nd rounder.

 

Drew is a rental at best...the Twins are not going to compete in 2014 for sure. And 2015 would be a stretch. Buxton and Sano would have to be everyday contributors from Opening Day 2015.

 

With the way the Yankees, Cubs, Rangers and others are abusing the International Signing rules/money - the Twins have pretty much just the draft as a way to acquire premiere talent.

 

The Twins aren't going to land the top 1-2 players at a position in free agency and we're not going to win in the playoffs with 2nd Division starter players.

[twinsfan34]

btw...."worth it"?

 

A WAR in FA now costs over $7MM per year....the new normal. People need to adjust their expectations.

 

That includes outliers...the top 5 teams don't function like regular teams - they're statistically irrelevant. Do the Confidence Interval.

[jokin]

Nothing embarrassing about Florimon at all.

 

Its easy to compare OPS+ between Drew and Floriomon because they are SS's and say done deal. But you are comparing 10 Million a year (Drew)and 6 figures (Florimon).

 

Now compare Drew's career numbers with someone else who makes 8 figures and it really doesn't make a lot of sense.

 

Don't spend 10 million plus on lack of positional supply. Spend it on someone who actually... You know... Rakes.

 

The average SS hit .697 OPS/94 OPS+, Florimon has managed to hit .601 OPS/67 OPS+ in his career with little indication that he can do any better than that. You don't find that the least bit embarrassing?

 

Hardy is going to be making 8 figures with already-earned bonuses in 2014, and will be making much more into the 8 figure per anum range on his next contract. He's a career .740 OPS/96 OPS+ hitter versus Drew at .764 OPS/98 OPS+. That makes 2 yrs/$21M look not too bad for Drew.

 

If that $10M was proven to be holding the Twins back from signing someone else, I'm all in, but someone who can play a decent SS and hit RHP at somewhere close to .800 OPS at a premium defensive position qualifies as a raker on this team. Nelson Cruz, by contrast, has a career .823 OPS as a part-time, oft-injured player who has averaged 125 games per year, and whose defense really qualifies him as a DH- and he'll be making a lot more than Drew.

[twinsfan34]

 

I kind of agree with the mandate on pitching as I think ownership wants the team to at least be in the game after the first inning and it has to be quite embarrassing to have the ERA this staff had last year. That ERA is an indictment of the front office and TR had to do something to fix it even if it meant bending his principles which I think he did on the Hughes deal as it seemed like an overpay from the normal Twins perspective. Even after all they did in FA the staff is only marginally better with a lot of question marks yet again.

 

There wasn't a lot to choose from for position players this year and the Twins have quite a bit of young talent on the way up so i guess I understand there reticence to go after guys until things settle in more for this team.

 

They can only afford one more bad or marginally bad year though and they are going to start losing there fan base. It was hard to watch them at the end last year. Hopefully the young talent next year brings everybody back and they start filling the holes.

 

 

I can agree with this...it's hard...and perhaps some sort of 'competitiveness should maybe be required'...though hard to enforce as $$ doesn't correlate to W's very well.

 

 

On the losing side of things...not being all things terrible, I was reading the other day...scouts are saying Rodon (#1 pick in this draft) is a once in a generation talent...

 

I have no idea what 2015 holds...unless that LSU SS comes out...he may be the #1 pick.

 

But not sure he's on the Rodon level.

[jokin]

Drew is a rental at best...the Twins are not going to compete in 2014 for sure. And 2015 would be a stretch. Buxton and Sano would have to be everyday contributors from Opening Day 2015.

 

With the way the Yankees, Cubs, Rangers and others are abusing the International Signing rules/money - the Twins have pretty much just the draft as a way to acquire premiere talent.

 

The Twins aren't going to land the top 1-2 players at a position in free agency and we're not going to win in the playoffs with 2nd Division starter players.

 

Name the last "premiere talent" that the Twins drafted in the 2nd round.

 

I'm not following you on "2nd Division starter players", is that how you are classifying Florimon.....or Drew?

 

And your argument for not signing Drew as a 2 year rental is that "they're going to lose the next 2 years, so why bother"?

 

What's so bad about a "rental" (who would also have potential trading value while in the Twns employ)?....Even if the dollars are readily available?....and it doesn't block a prospect?...and you don't block a 1st round potential SS draft pick in 2014 or 2015?....and you don't cripple other team-building maneuvers?...and signing a legitimate big league SS might encourage another quality FA to consider signing next offseason?