2014 MLB Draft Thread

[Willihammer]

Turner isn't close to Young - no power, bad swing, not physical, only thing he has in common with Young is that he probably won't stay at short.

 

Burn! Here we are debating how much of an offensive compromise is acceptable because of the sure glove. Maybe not.

[markos]

Christopher Crawford posted on ESPN about the big pitching matchups this weekend.

 

http://insider.espn.go.com/blog/mlb-draft/post?id=1356

 

I already pointed out the Beebe-Nola matchup, but he also mentioned that Rodon is going up against Luke Weaver of Florida St. Weaver has had a good season so far, and it now being mentioned as a mid-first round pick. I'm intrigued by this matchup for two reasons:

1) Is Rodon in play for the Twins at #5? Rodon is starting to lose steam as the consensus 1-1 pick, which means there is a higher likelihood that he will be available for the Twins at #5. Until now I had just assumed he would be gone by #5 and hadn't paid much attention. Now I'm paying attention, though I'm not sure how I feel about rooting for a player to be bad enough so the Twins can draft him.

2) How does Trae Turner perform against top pitching? Weaver is first round material, so it will be a good test for Turner. I know that I shouldn't draw any conclusions from a single game, but if he looks overmatched I can't but take that as a major negative.

[oldguy10]

As I have said before about Turner vis-a-vis great shortstop defenders. If a college shortstop is truly a GREAT fielder (Marc Belanger like) I do not think MLB teams should give any consideration at all to their hitting. And many learn on the job about hitting, Ozzie Smith sure did okay in that regard. Good MLB teams rely on their big guns for hitting not their shortstops. If Turner is GREAT by these standards there is not doubt in my mind at all about making him your first pick this coming June if he is available. If he isn't in that category then pass.

[cmb0252]

BA article on big lefty Sean Newcomb:

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/college/hartfords-newcomb-is-late-rising-northeasterner/

[cmb0252]

Christopher Crawford posted on ESPN about the big pitching matchups this weekend.

 

http://insider.espn.go.com/blog/mlb-draft/post?id=1356

 

I already pointed out the Beebe-Nola matchup, but he also mentioned that Rodon is going up against Luke Weaver of Florida St. Weaver has had a good season so far, and it now being mentioned as a mid-first round pick. I'm intrigued by this matchup for two reasons:

1) Is Rodon in play for the Twins at #5? Rodon is starting to lose steam as the consensus 1-1 pick, which means there is a higher likelihood that he will be available for the Twins at #5. Until now I had just assumed he would be gone by #5 and hadn't paid much attention. Now I'm paying attention, though I'm not sure how I feel about rooting for a player to be bad enough so the Twins can draft him.

2) How does Trae Turner perform against top pitching? Weaver is first round material, so it will be a good test for Turner. I know that I shouldn't draw any conclusions from a single game, but if he looks overmatched I can't but take that as a major negative.

 

To add on to this weekends big matchup BA had a lot of good scout quotes on it in this article:

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/college/weekend-preview-march-14-16/

[cmb0252]

To add on to this weekends big matchup BA had a lot of good scout quotes on it in this article:

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/college/weekend-preview-march-14-16/

 

Jim Callis also chimes in on the weekend matchups:

 

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20140314&content_id=69290466&notebook_id=69290468&vkey=notebook_mlb&c_id=mlb

[gunnarthor]

1) Is Rodon in play for the Twins at #5? Rodon is starting to lose steam as the consensus 1-1 pick, which means there is a higher likelihood that he will be available for the Twins at #5. Until now I had just assumed he would be gone by #5 and hadn't paid much attention. Now I'm paying attention, though I'm not sure how I feel about rooting for a player to be bad enough so the Twins can draft him.

 

I'm hoping for a log jam at the top. Right now there are 4 pitchers (Rodon, Hoffman, Beede and Kolek) that I'd be happy the Twins getting. I think Beede and Rodon are my favorite two.

[twinsfan34]

I respect KLaw, but Nola was great last night against Vanderbilt and Beede was too. Nola struck out 12. He may not seem as 'flashy' but he already knows how to pitch and has great command.

 

He may not have the high ceiling of a 220-240 K pitcher in MLB, but what if he could be a Tom Glavine, Greg Maddux, Brad Radke, Dave Steib, etc type.

 

Either way...love that Rodon may be falling and also that there might be a LOT of good pitching prospects available this year.

 

I like the college pitchers this year more than most. And it seems the depth would extend well into the 2nd round.

 

Also, how many teams are forfeiting their 1st RD pick?

 

I wonder if the way the compensation breaks down if our 2nd RD pick would be higher or lower than without the signings.

 

I found this link...

 

what are "competitive balance" picks?

 

I would think the Twins should get 5 or 6 of those.

 

http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/events/draft/y2014/order.jsp

[nicksaviking]

As I have said before about Turner vis-a-vis great shortstop defenders. If a college shortstop is truly a GREAT fielder (Marc Belanger like) I do not think MLB teams should give any consideration at all to their hitting. And many learn on the job about hitting, Ozzie Smith sure did okay in that regard. Good MLB teams rely on their big guns for hitting not their shortstops. If Turner is GREAT by these standards there is not doubt in my mind at all about making him your first pick this coming June if he is available. If he isn't in that category then pass.

 

Yes but then what happens if the defense only turns out to be average at the MLB level and he has no other attributes to fall back on? You can't pick a guy who's all glove at #5.

 

You have to pick the guy with the most tools, not just the tool you like best. And personally I would care about defense much less than the hit or power tool.

[nicksaviking]

I respect KLaw, but Nola was great last night against Vanderbilt and Beede was too. Nola struck out 12. He may not seem as 'flashy' but he already knows how to pitch and has great command.

 

 

At #5 I still want upside. The Twins always have an underwhelming stable of starters because they previously valued control more than velocity or movement. Guys can improve control, it's pretty difficult to improve velocity or movement.

[twinsfan34]

At #5 I still want upside. The Twins always have an underwhelming stable of starters because they previously valued control more than velocity or movement. Guys can improve control, it's pretty difficult to improve velocity or movement.

 

Perhaps I misspoke, as I want upside too. And I typically like the higher velocity too.

 

He's striking out 12.9 per 9 innings so far against elite college competition. (33.2 IP, 48 SO)

 

Maybe Nola is more like a Johan Santana (only 92 MPH) but with more strikeouts. Maybe...

[gunnarthor]

At #5 I still want upside. The Twins always have an underwhelming stable of starters because they previously valued control more than velocity or movement. Guys can improve control, it's pretty difficult to improve velocity or movement.

 

I'm not sure that first sentence is completely correct. They didn't have any top picks for most of that time period. The fact that they got some decent seasons out of 2nd round (or later) pitchers like Slowey, Baker, Blackburn, Duensing, Swarzak is a good thing. Since the Johnson fiasco in 2000 (a high upside pick) the only pitchers they took in the first round were all in the 20s. Waldrop got hurt, Perkins turned into a good closer, Garza has had a nice career and Gutierrez never made it. They took a few more in the supp rounds and more recent first round picks like Gibson, Wimmers (who looks like a bust) it's too early to say. But I don't think the Twins draft control guys strategy failed. They got some good pitcher years out of it. (Deron Johnson seemed to change that strategy when he took over in 08 and Gibson is the only pitcher he's drafted that has made the majors).

[Lonestar]

I respect KLaw, but Nola was great last night against Vanderbilt and Beede was too. Nola struck out 12. He may not seem as 'flashy' but he already knows how to pitch and has great command.

 

He may not have the high ceiling of a 220-240 K pitcher in MLB, but what if he could be a Tom Glavine, Greg Maddux, Brad Radke, Dave Steib, etc type.

You just compared Nola to two Hall of Famers -- one in the inner circle. He is looking more and more like a Twins target. And Verveking is looking prescient.

 

Either way...love that Rodon may be falling and also that there might be a LOT of good pitching prospects available this year.

Rodon is only slipping in comparison with Stansburg and Price -- not the current field, if only because no one has challenged him.

[cmb0252]

Perhaps I misspoke, as I want upside too. And I typically like the higher velocity too.

 

He's striking out 12.9 per 9 innings so far against elite college competition. (33.2 IP, 48 SO)

 

Maybe Nola is more like a Johan Santana (only 92 MPH) but with more strikeouts. Maybe...

 

Santana was a lefty with a 70+ grade changeup. Big difference. Also, while they are both undersized Santana had much better delivery. Some experts think Nola might be a reliever because of his delivery. He is a solid prospect but not a top 5 talent.

[nicksaviking]

Perhaps I misspoke, as I want upside too. And I typically like the higher velocity too.

 

He's striking out 12.9 per 9 innings so far against elite college competition. (33.2 IP, 48 SO)

 

Maybe Nola is more like a Johan Santana (only 92 MPH) but with more strikeouts. Maybe...

 

I think he's probably more like Wimmers. That's how the scouts/draft wonks make him sound anyway. These guys (like Wimmers) seem to strike guys out in college due to their control, but I don't think most expect those numbers to translate to the majors as the velocity and/or movement just isn't there to get it past many MLB batters.

 

I'm not sure that first sentence is completely correct. They didn't have any top picks for most of that time period. The fact that they got some decent seasons out of 2nd round (or later) pitchers like Slowey, Baker, Blackburn, Duensing, Swarzak is a good thing. Since the Johnson fiasco in 2000 (a high upside pick) the only pitchers they took in the first round were all in the 20s. Waldrop got hurt, Perkins turned into a good closer, Garza has had a nice career and Gutierrez never made it. They took a few more in the supp rounds and more recent first round picks like Gibson, Wimmers (who looks like a bust) it's too early to say. But I don't think the Twins draft control guys strategy failed. They got some good pitcher years out of it. (Deron Johnson seemed to change that strategy when he took over in 08 and Gibson is the only pitcher he's drafted that has made the majors).

 

They did get some decent production, but aside from Garza and to a lesser degree Gibson and Gutierrez, none of them had dominant stuff and almost surely never had a chance to amount to a top the of the rotation pitcher.

 

I understand the logic, as these guys had less risk of becoming a bust, but you're not going to get your ace if you take a "safe" pitcher outside of the top five. Everyone knew Wimmers was going to the Twins because they liked "safe" pitchers. He was said to be the guy likely to be quickest to the majors. So why didn't every other team jump at him? Because he had very little upside and that was more important to other teams

 

Look at all the HS arms the Twins passed up playing it safe that year. Tijuan Walker, Aaron Sanchez, Noah Syndergaard, Jesse Biddle and Zack Lee were all picked after Wimmers and the end of the first round. You can't play the draft pick hindsight game, but you can play the draft strategy hindsight game. The Twins were conservative, that's not just my view, that was the view of nearly everyone who projected the guy with the most MLB ready control would fall all the way to the Twins at 21 and that they would take him.

 

I agree though, I think that strategy has been revised, and I for one am happy. Saying that, I don't think there's any chance Nola is the pick at #5 unless he gains some velocity and starts to profile as an ace.

[gunnarthor]

I think he's probably more like Wimmers. That's how the scouts/draft wonks make him sound anyway. These guys (like Wimmers) seem to strike guys out in college due to their control, but I don't think most expect those numbers to translate to the majors as the velocity and/or movement just isn't there to get it past many MLB batters.

 

 

 

They did get some decent production, but aside from Garza and to a lesser degree Gibson and Gutierrez, none of them had dominant stuff and almost surely never had a chance to amount to a top the of the rotation pitcher.

 

I understand the logic, as these guys had less risk of becoming a bust, but you're not going to get your ace if you take a "safe" pitcher outside of the top five. Everyone knew Wimmers was going to the Twins because they liked "safe" pitchers. He was said to be the guy likely to be quickest to the majors. So why didn't every other team jump at him? Because he had very little upside and that was more important to other teams

 

Look at all the HS arms the Twins passed up playing it safe that year. Tijuan Walker, Aaron Sanchez, Noah Syndergaard, Jesse Biddle and Zack Lee were all picked after Wimmers and the end of the first round. You can't play the draft pick hindsight game, but you can play the draft strategy hindsight game. The Twins were conservative, that's not just my view, that was the view of nearly everyone who projected the guy with the most MLB ready control would fall all the way to the Twins at 21 and that they would take him.

 

I agree though, I think that strategy has been revised, and I for one am happy. Saying that, I don't think there's any chance Nola is the pick at #5 unless he gains some velocity and starts to profile as an ace.

 

I think there is a happy medium in there. The Radcliff drafts tend toward the "conservative control" theme but that wasn't always true. Radcliff did draft high upside talent like Garza, who fell to him, but also guys like Johnson, Durbin, Waldrop, Rainville (both got injured but both were well regarded HS arms at the time). And he also used a 2nd rounder on Crain. Johnson has gone the other way with only Wimmers being the "traditional" Twins type pick. He's picked tons of flamethrowers (Boer, Hunt, Gutierrez, Bullock, Bashore, etc) since taking over and only Gibson has made it.

 

My opinion is that the Twins had a pretty decent strategy for a bit (and the WAR value of the players they drafted over time holds up pretty well). They used BPA in the first round, which was usually a position player, and focused on and then grabbed underrated guys - usually guys with lower velocity but strong control - in later rounds that would help out. In any event, the Johnson drafts have not produced any pitching for the Twins yet.

[Willihammer]

Anyone able to find stats on Michael Gettys?

 

edit: Or Braxton Davidson?

 

edit: OK for Davidson:

Braxton Davidson, OF/1B, Roberson HS (NC)

 

At 6’-3” and 220 pounds, the left-handed hitting Davidson is already a beast. His power and advanced approach from the left side will land him in the first round of the 2014 MLB draft. His strong arm (92 mph from outfield) would play well in a corner outfield spot, although some believe he could end up at first base where he could be a plus defender. Over five games this season, he has gone 11-for-16 (.688) with four doubles and a home run, and he has yet to strike out. He has shown off his arm by striking out 20 over 10 shutout innings on the mound, allowing just one hit. Committed to North Carolina.

 

 

http://beforeitsnews.com/sports/2014/03/2014-mlb-draft-10-high-school-players-on-the-rise-second-edition-2557160.html

 

Sheesh, Michael Chavis is crushing:

 

Michael Chavis, 3B, Sprayberry HS (GA)

Chavis just continues to mash. The 5’-11”, 190 pound right-hander went 3-for-3 with two more home runs on March 14, upping his total to six over his first 11 games. He is also hitting .656/.738/1.344 with a 2.082 OPS, four doubles and nine stolen bases. He is playing shortstop now, but with his tremendous power, should make a move over to third base where his arm, glove and footwork will play well. Committed to Clemson.

 

[gunnarthor]

 

 

http://beforeitsnews.com/sports/2014/03/2014-mlb-draft-10-high-school-players-on-the-rise-second-edition-2557160.html

 

Sheesh, Michael Chavis is crushing:

 

mlbpipeline has Chavis rated #35 in the draft. Obviously there is tons of movement left but he's the kind of Joe Benson-like talent the Twins could look for with their second pick. "Known as more of a line-drive hitter, he surprisingly won the home run derby at the Perfect Game All-American Classic, beating out noted prep sluggers such as Braxton Davidson, Michael Gettys and Alex Jackson. Chavis consistently makes hard contact at the plate and projects as a possible .275 hitter with 18-20 homers in his prime in the big leagues. "

http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/prospects/watch/y2014/#list=prospects

[Willihammer]

Chavis is also playing SS this year. Whether his glove is any good, I have no idea.

[markos]

There are a couple of new draft reports up on ESPN. Both have a lot of good nuggets about the prospects that we've been discussing for the Twins at #5. They are both Insider pieces, but here are the highlights:

 

Christopher Crawford:

http://insider.espn.go.com/blog/mlb-draft/post?id=1368

 

He reviews the big pitching matchups from the past weekend. 3 items of note:

1) Rodon wasn't great. Yes, 12 strikeouts were nice, but he also walked 4 and needed 125 pitches to get through 6 2/3 innings.

2) Kolek is rising.

Most teams that I've talked to believe that Kolek has clearly passed Jeff Hoffman as the second best pitcher in this year's class, and it's tough to see him not going in the top five, be it to the Astros, Miami Marlins, Chicago White Sox, Chicago Cubs or Minnesota Twins.

3) Turner is falling.

"I've heard people say [Turner] is a top-five lock, and I just don't get it," an AL crosschecker said. "That's not to say that I don't like him as a player, I think he's going to be a starter at the big-league level and he's certainly a first-rounder. I just don't see how you take him over a guy like Alex Jackson or Jacob Gatewood or any of the big pitchers.

 

Keith Law:

http://insider.espn.go.com/blog/mlb-draft/post?id=1374

 

He watched Alex Jackson play this weekend. This post was primarily a scouting report, with analysis of his swing mechanics and other skills. Most interesting item is that he thinks Jackson will not stick at catcher and ultimately move to left or right.

 

Law is planning on watching Brady Aiken tonight, who has some serious helium after hitting 97 last week.

[maxisagod]

Keith Law:

http://insider.espn.go.com/blog/mlb-draft/post?id=1374

 

I found this to be the most interesting nugget from Law: "If the draft were held today, (Jackson would) probably be in the mix for all teams drafting in the top five, with the Miami Marlins already linked to Tyler Kolek at No. 2 and the Cubs at No. 4 linked to Tyler Beede."

Who do you think this would this leave the Twins at 5? Thoughts?

[gunnarthor]

I found this to be the most interesting nugget from Law: "If the draft were held today, (Jackson would) probably be in the mix for all teams drafting in the top five, with the Miami Marlins already linked to Tyler Kolek at No. 2 and the Cubs at No. 4 linked to Tyler Beede."

Who do you think this would this leave the Twins at 5? Thoughts?

 

Well, I think that means the Astros take Rodon #1. Kolek to the Marlins. I'm not sure the White Sox would pass on Beede but if they do, then I think they'd take Hoffman and that would leave the Twins with the pick of the best position player in the draft (college or HS). Not sure who that person will be - right now it's probably Jackson. I think, in this draft which is high on pitching talent, that's a worst case scenario.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

Well, I think that means the Astros take Rodon #1. Kolek to the Marlins. I'm not sure the White Sox would pass on Beede but if they do, then I think they'd take Hoffman and that would leave the Twins with the pick of the best position player in the draft (college or HS). Not sure who that person will be - right now it's probably Jackson. I think, in this draft which is high on pitching talent, that's a worst case scenario.

 

I would put Luke Weaver squarely in the mix at #5. In fact, I'd call him the favorite right now. (Assuming the first four go as thought.)

[gunnarthor]

I would put Luke Weaver squarely in the mix at #5. In fact, I'd call him the favorite right now. (Assuming the first four go as thought.)

 

Interesting. Not saying you're wrong but mlbpipeline has him at #23 with his height (something the Twins are really big on) being a real concern. "The biggest questions about Weaver concern his breaking ball and his size. He has an upper-70s slurve that may never become more than an average slider. He isn't especially physical at 6-foot-2 and 170 pounds, though his frame and athleticism do draw some comparisons to Tim Hudson."

 

Frankly, their write up sorta reminds me of Berrios - a nice second pick but not a top 5 pick.

[notoriousgod71]

http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/highschool-prep-rally/top-rated-pitching-prospect-tyler-kolek-has-yet-to-allow-a-hit-as-a-high-school-senior-170058989.html

 

 

Tyler Kolek just dominating.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

Interesting. Not saying you're wrong but mlbpipeline has him at #23 with his height (something the Twins are really big on) being a real concern. "The biggest questions about Weaver concern his breaking ball and his size. He has an upper-70s slurve that may never become more than an average slider. He isn't especially physical at 6-foot-2 and 170 pounds, though his frame and athleticism do draw some comparisons to Tim Hudson."

 

Frankly, their write up sorta reminds me of Berrios - a nice second pick but not a top 5 pick.

 

The comps on him from the Twins perspective right now are Zack Greinke and (a much shorter version of) Jered Weaver. I was surprised when I heard it too, but doing things like outdueling Carlos Rodon certainly aren't going to hurt.

 

I heard some reports earlier that he was showing mid-90s gas, but I don't think he's been doing it lately. I think that will be the one that tips the scale one way or the other, not his breaking ball.

[Willihammer]

I found this to be the most interesting nugget from Law: "If the draft were held today, (Jackson would) probably be in the mix for all teams drafting in the top five, with the Miami Marlins already linked to Tyler Kolek at No. 2 and the Cubs at No. 4 linked to Tyler Beede."

Who do you think this would this leave the Twins at 5? Thoughts?

 

This is where my amateur skills fail me I guess. Everyone seems to love Jackson, but I don't get it. To me he's not clearly separated from the likes of Michael Gettys, Braxton Davidson or possibly even Chavis. Anyone care to explain why Jackson is thought so highly of? How much of it is a positional bonus?

[Jeremy Nygaard]

This is where my amateur skills fail me I guess. Everyone seems to love Jackson, but I don't get it. To me he's not clearly separated from the likes of Michael Gettys, Braxton Davidson or possibly even Chavis. Anyone care to explain why Jackson is thought so highly of? How much of it is a positional bonus?

 

Huge success on the summer circuit, advanced bat for his age (which people aren't touting as much right now), plus arm and giftedness to remain behind the plate long-term. He's in discussion at #5 (as is Gatewood). As of a month ago, none of the other guys you mentioned were. And the list of guys was somewhere in the 17-20 range.

[markos]

I would put Luke Weaver squarely in the mix at #5. In fact, I'd call him the favorite right now. (Assuming the first four go as thought.)

 

I think I would put Nova ahead of Weaver right now.

 

If it does go Rodon/Kolek/Hoffman/Beede, then I would prefer one of the top high school players (Gatewood, Aiken, et al) over Nova or Weaver. If Aiken really is hitting the mid-90s consistently, I think he would be a great choice at #5.

[cmb0252]

I would put Luke Weaver squarely in the mix at #5. In fact, I'd call him the favorite right now. (Assuming the first four go as thought.)

 

Yikes. If anyone of us knows what the twins are thinking it would be you Jeremy but I hope you are wrong. Weaver just doesn't have top 5 level tools. Weaver isn't even in my personal top 15.