2014 MLB Draft Thread

[markos]

Draft week is upon us!!!

 

Exciting!

 

Before things get too crazy this week, I want to thank everyone for contributing to an awesome thread. It has been a great ride, with lots of smart, intense, yet civil discussion about all the top draft prospects. I feel like I've learned a lot, and this thread has always been my go-to place to find the latest draft updates.

 

My board right now.

 

Aiken > Rodon > Gordon > Jackson > Kolek > Nola > Touki > Holmes

 

I would be happy with anyone on this list.

[twinsfanstreif]

You're either a lawyer or Jon Stewart

 

 

E. Tim Keefe in 1880, although he only pitched 105 innings, so I'll go with the #2 guy there. One Pedro Martinez.

 

Pedro's opponent batting line is just sick: .167/.213/.259; and of course, a MLB record 0.74 WHIP.

 

Single Season ERA+ Leaders:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/earned_run_avg_plus_season.shtml

 

I will say if I was a right handed hitter, Nolan Ryan would be my most feared. If a left handed hitter, Randy Johnson.

 

But I'd probably be most frustrated against Pedro Martinez. With Randy I'd have a career .281 OBP. Nolan, a .293 OBP....Pedro? .260.

 

And with Nolan and Randy I'd have a 15% and 11% chance of obtaining a free pass without taking the bat off my shoulder. With Pedro? I'd only have an 8% chance of getting a BB.

 

Pedro pitched for 18 years, Johnson and Ryan pitched for 24 and 27 years respectively. Although great, Pedro had less dominate years. Ryan also had 7 no hitters, that's crazy. In their prime there's really no way to compare but back to your original claim, I don't see any of these guys in Touki. In fact you could make the claim that Maddux makes Nola look better, Maddux never really had dominate "stuff" but he was still un hittable, Nola at least for the time being seems to be that guy too

[nicksaviking]

Here's a question: would you trade Fien or Duensing for the 39th draft pick like the Pirates did? In a draft like this, there are a few extra name I would like to add to the Twins system.

 

This is a fun question. What exactly would people here give up for the 39th pick?

 

The Marlins are getting ripped for giving it up for a (below) average reliever, but odds are that 39th pick would be lucky to become a (below) average reliever.

 

Personally I'd give up most of the Twins relief corp for the 39th pick, but I might have to think long and hard about whether it's because I truely think the pick will turn out to be a good player or simply because getting extra draft picks is awesomely fun.

[Mike Sixel]

I would give up every relief pitcher other than the proven closer for the 39th pick. RP can be replaced, the 39th pick has potential to be good. Heck, I'd give up two or three of them for the 39th pick. I can't believe that is all the Marlins got, frankly.

[tobi0040]

I would give up every relief pitcher other than the proven closer for the 39th pick. RP can be replaced, the 39th pick has potential to be good. Heck, I'd give up two or three of them for the 39th pick. I can't believe that is all the Marlins got, frankly.

 

I would do that trade in a heartbeat. Look at the AAA pen, not to mention Pino and Johsnon who could be moved:

 

Pressly 2.90 ERA

Achter 1.78 ERA

Thompson 2.82 ERA

Hoffman 2.70 ERA

Guerra 2.95 ERA

Tonkin 2.25 ERA

[Mike Sixel]

Ya, I just don't get that trade at all....I know this isn't the NFL, but still, pick 39 has real value.

[cmb0252]

I'm working on my personal top 50 draft board and plan to release it before Thursday. For those of you who plan to follow day 1/day 2 it is a fun exercise. The draft day threads last year on Twins Daily were great.

[cmb0252]

Jim Callis' new draft board:

 

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article/mock-draft-brady-aiken-remains-no-1-choice-for-astros?ymd=20140602&content_id=77857076

[Mike Sixel]

an alternative is to stockpile money? to what end? NUMEROUS teams have 2-4 picks in front of the Twins. I just don't see that as a real option. If they do it, well, they won't, so I won't even think about it.

[John Bonnes]

Jim Callis' new draft board:

 

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article/mock-draft-brady-aiken-remains-no-1-choice-for-astros?ymd=20140602&content_id=77857076

 

So Twins have both Jackson and Gordon available and choose Gordon, per Callis. I would be a little surprised by this. It seems like they were high on Jackson before Gordon.

[InfraRen]

Chris Crawford's newest draft blog for ESPN Insider has an excerpt about Jacob Gatewood potentially falling out of the first. I haven't been majorly plugged in on him, but regardless of what we do at #5, wouldn't it be wise to grab him in the 2nd if he's there?

 

Stock down: Jacob Gatewood, SS, Clovis (Calif.) HS

Gatewood's stock has seemingly been dropping since the "draft season" started, and a player considered a potential top-five pick now likely doesn't go in the first round. The power is legit, but that power means nothing if Gatewood can't hit, and fewer and fewer teams believe he's going to be able to at the professional levels.

Possible fits: Houston Astros, Texas Rangers, Cincinnati Reds

[gunnarthor]

Sure, if Gatewood is there at #46, grab him. But I don't think he'll fall that far. (Unless two many teams think he's Brandon Wood ...)

[cmb0252]

Mlbtraderumors Q&A with Gordon:

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/06/draft-prospect-qa-nick-gordon.html

[Einstein]

I found this nugget from Derek Wetmore interesting, "Ryan said he'd like to draft a lot of left-handed pitching". Perhaps there is something to the recent Sean Newcomb steam. At the very least, I'm guessing they rank Newcomb over Nola.

 

http://www.1500espn.com/sportswire/Report_No_question_Terry_Ryan_will_return_to_GM_post_this_season060214

[John Bonnes]

I found this nugget from Derek Wetmore interesting, "Ryan said he'd like to draft a lot of left-handed pitching". Perhaps there is something to the recent Sean Newcomb steam. At the very least, I'm guessing they rank Newcomb over Nola.

 

http://www.1500espn.com/sportswire/Report_No_question_Terry_Ryan_will_return_to_GM_post_this_season060214

 

:-) Just FYI - you can find the story Derek was referencing right here on Twins Daily. It was reported by SD Buhr:

http://twinsdaily.com/content.php/3049-Interview-with-Twins-GM-Terry-Ryan-Part-1

[twinsfan34]

So Twins have both Jackson and Gordon available and choose Gordon, per Callis. I would be a little surprised by this. It seems like they were high on Jackson before Gordon.

 

I agree. I'd be very disappointed if both were there and we went with Gordon in that case. I don't think the Twins would go that route either. I believe they would take Jackson. Who has the arm profile for 3B as well as RF in addition to many believing he can stay at catcher as well as having a 25-35 HR potential and a better hit tool than Gordon. Gordon doesn't seem to be be that much better than the average SS, but Jackson could be significantly better than the average C, 3B, or RF. Seems like a no-brainer to me.

[maxisagod]

ESPN Article On draft success over the past 50 years.

 

This came up months earlier when discussing Jackson and high school catchers, but we've been discussing position trends and high school vs college players for a while now. A few high lights:

College 1st baseman are the safest picks in the 1st round.

There is a higher fail rate among high school outfielders than high school catchers.

High School 2nd baseman have the worst collective WAR over any other position or level.

[cmb0252]

Crawford's new mock is up:

 

http://mlbdraftinsider.com/2014/06/the-penultimate-mock-2/

[blairpaul715]

Crawford's new mock is up:

 

http://mlbdraftinsider.com/2014/06/the-penultimate-mock-2/

 

If this happens, I will be disappointed if we don't take Jackson.

[InfraRen]

I can't say I'd be disappointed in Gordon over Jackson, but I get it, for those of you who would be.

 

That said, I also would be just fine with Jackson over Gordon. Different types of players, but both with very different, yet high ceilings. I don't know why, I just lean more towards Gordon. Could be that an "all-star" type SS seems harder to come by than a C who could become an OF.

[Mike Sixel]

I find it funny that people that have never seen Gordon play think he might be at best an average SS, while the scouts have him in the top 3-5 of the entire draft, and use words like "potential perenial all star SS".

[InfraRen]

You know what this thread is missing? Pictures. Here's a pic of each of the common players we've heard in Twins rumors just for the funz:

 

Nick Gordon

http://media.philly.com/images/060114_Nick-Gordon_600.jpg

 

Alex Jackson

http://cdn4.sportngin.com/attachments/photo/3332/2009/Jackson_Alex_medium.jpg

 

Aaron Nola

http://prospectinsider.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/5_6NolaPitcher.jpg

 

Sean Newcomb (looks like Pitbull)

http://hartfordinformer.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/rp_primary_act_base-NewcombSean-02.jpg

[tobi0040]

So Twins have both Jackson and Gordon available and choose Gordon, per Callis. I would be a little surprised by this. It seems like they were high on Jackson before Gordon.

 

I don't see Theo taking Conforto, not even a consensus top 8 pick at #4. He has been adding BPA since he took over and has assembled a very good farm system. I think they take a pitcher, but either way I think they end up with Aiken, Rodon, Kolek, or Jackson.

 

I agree with you John, I hope we would take Jackson over Gordon.

[Mike Sixel]

Man, I love Jackson's hair......

[InfraRen]

Man, I love Jackson's hair......

Haha. He kind of looks like a mix between Josh Freeman (NFL) and Miguel Cabrera.

[InfraRen]

Kind of random, but draft-related so I'll post:

 

Peter Gammons @pgammo

GM:"Draft is so confused, if Aiken, Jackson, Kolek, Gordon go 1-2-3-5 and Cubs take a bat, where does Rodon go? Seattle?

[nicksaviking]

I find it funny that people that have never seen Gordon play think he might be at best an average SS, while the scouts have him in the top 3-5 of the entire draft, and use words like "potential perenial all star SS".

 

I'm just curious, who said he was a perenial all star?

 

Jackson, Gordon, Newcomb, Toussain and Holmes are all pretty much tied for me right now, but that's only on the condition that Jackson is put in the OF day one. HS catchers have nearly a 100% bust rate over the last dozen years, I want no business of trying to develop one at the possible or even likely expense of his offense.

[nicksaviking]

Does Newcomb remind anyone else of Jon Lester? I haven't seen any scouts compare the two but surely someone else has mentioned it.

[Mike Sixel]

I'm just curious, who said he was a perenial all star?

 

Jackson, Gordon, Newcomb, Toussain and Holmes are all pretty much tied for me right now, but that's only on the condition that Jackson is put in the OF day one. HS catchers have nearly a 100% bust rate over the last dozen years, I want no business of trying to develop one at the possible or even likely expense of his offense.

 

you left out the word "potential", and one of the scouts interviewed/quoted on ESPN has said that. I read it elsewhere too, but I have no idea if those were circular references or not.

[nicksaviking]

you left out the word "potential", and one of the scouts interviewed/quoted on ESPN has said that. I read it elsewhere too, but I have no idea if those were circular references or not.

 

I wasn't denying the claim, I just didn't recall anyone projecting him as such. I haven't read every write up on these guys.