2014 MLB Draft Thread

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Kiley McDaniel released his new board today. Kolek falls and Nola rises but what is his new top 5? Check it out:

 

http://sbb.scout.com/story/1404313

[the_youngster]

Any of Rodon, Aiken, Kolek, Gordon, Jackson, or Nola would be quality picks in reality. All have very reasonable chance to be very good prospects and eventually contribute to a major league team. Honestly, however, I am warming up to Nola. His fastball and changeup combo remind me of Michael Wacha, only Nola has better control. At this point in their college careers, Nola is the better of the two with better stuff. But any prospect can either "find it" or "lose it" during their path to the major leagues. I'm less worried about who the Twins take 5th overall than who they miss in the draft as a whole. I would like see a plethora of quality prospects who have the ability and aptitude to become good contributors to the Twins in the future.

[cmb0252]

Any of Rodon, Aiken, Kolek, Gordon, Jackson, or Nola would be quality picks in reality. All have very reasonable chance to be very good prospects and eventually contribute to a major league team. Honestly, however, I am warming up to Nola. His fastball and changeup combo remind me of Michael Wacha, only Nola has better control. At this point in their college careers, Nola is the better of the two with better stuff. But any prospect can either "find it" or "lose it" during their path to the major leagues. I'm less worried about who the Twins take 5th overall than who they miss in the draft as a whole. I would like see a plethora of quality prospects who have the ability and aptitude to become good contributors to the Twins in the future.

 

Wacha has a 70-80 grade pitch in his change up. Nola doesn't own a single pitch that grades plus-plus. Also, Wimmers had just as good, if not better, college career as Nola before he came out so be careful of using college stats as a ruler for future success.

[AlwaysinModeration]

Wacha has a 70-80 grade pitch in his change up. Nola doesn't own a single pitch that grades plus-plus. Also, Wimmers had just as good, if not better, college career as Nola before he came out so be careful of using college stats as a ruler for future success.

 

Except that he didn't. For example, Wimmers posted a 4.5BB/9 in college.

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Except that he didn't. For example, Wimmers posted a 4.5BB/9 in college.

 

Wimmers posted a 11.27 SO/9 vs Nola's 9.36. Nola bet him in WHIP/ERA but Wimmers isn't bad at 1.29/2.93. Oh, and Wimmers had 1 less CG but had 22 less starts. Yes, Nola did have a better college career, my bad, but not by much. When did college numbers become the indicator of big league success.

[twinsfanstreif]

Wacha has a 70-80 grade pitch in his change up. Nola doesn't own a single pitch that grades plus-plus. Also, Wimmers had just as good, if not better, college career as Nola before he came out so be careful of using college stats as a ruler for future success.

 

Also the know on Watcha is he only had 2 plus pitches and he still does, it will catch up to him eventually as a starter, could get away with it as a reliever. Nola is a different pitcher but he has 4 plus pitches which is nothing to balk at. The movement on his FB has the potential to make it a plus-plus if he could get a few extra ticks on the velocity, and his breaking ball is very close, I would put it as a 65 right now.

[twinsin17]

Here is an article I dug while on the topic of Wacha v Nola. http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/41964/how-18-teams-passed-on-michael-wacha Nobody projected Wacha a a future ace out of college. In fact, Wacha was projected as a quick to the majors #3 and received comps to Leake. It wasn't until sometime after the 2012 draft that he added a few ticks to his low 90s fastball, making his already plus change up that much more effective. I cannot find anyone who said Wacha had a plus-plus change coming out of college. He simply got better. Why can't Nola also get better? If it is true and he could be a #3 right now it sounds kind of crazy to say that is his ceiling...unless he lacks any coach-ability and has completely maxed his physical ability as a 20 year old. Doubtful. Yes, with a few more inches of height Wacha looks the part of a true #1 more than Nola. Maybe Wacha had a better change coming out of college but Nola has superior command, as good or better fast ball, better curve and a solid change himself. Arguments about arm angle lack merit. The fact is whether a pitcher throws sidearm, 3/4 or right over the top the motion is unnatural and can lead to sever injury. No study shows one method or the other is worse or better for the arm and if such study did exist it would be inherently flawed as no control could exist for such experiment. Take a moment to watch Nola clips and marvel at how much movement his pitches generate and how well he controls where they go. He more than passes the eye test. And, yes, his college stats are better than Wimmers. SEC>>>>>>Big Ten

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Also the know on Watcha is he only had 2 plus pitches and he still does, it will catch up to him eventually as a starter, could get away with it as a reliever. Nola is a different pitcher but he has 4 plus pitches which is nothing to balk at. The movement on his FB has the potential to make it a plus-plus if he could get a few extra ticks on the velocity, and his breaking ball is very close, I would put it as a 65 right now.

 

There is no point to argue with you if that is how you see Nola's stuff. 4 plus pitches and one being plus-plus? I just can't agree with the optimism. That doesn't make me right or you wrong. It just means we don't see eye to idea.

[twinsfanstreif]

Here is an article I dug while on the topic of Wacha v Nola. http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/41964/how-18-teams-passed-on-michael-wacha Nobody projected Wacha a a future ace out of college. In fact, Wacha was projected as a quick to the majors #3 and received comps to Leake. It wasn't until sometime after the 2012 draft that he added a few ticks to his low 90s fastball, making his already plus change up that much more effective. I cannot find anyone who said Wacha had a plus-plus change coming out of college. He simply got better. Why can't Nola also get better? If it is true and he could be a #3 right now it sounds kind of crazy to say that is his ceiling...unless he lacks any coach-ability and has completely maxed his physical ability as a 20 year old. Doubtful. Yes, with a few more inches of height Wacha looks the part of a true #1 more than Nola. Maybe Wacha had a better change coming out of college but Nola has superior command, as good or better fast ball, better curve and a solid change himself. Arguments about arm angle lack merit. The fact is whether a pitcher throws sidearm, 3/4 or right over the top the motion is unnatural and can lead to sever injury. No study shows one method or the other is worse or better for the arm and if such study did exist it would be inherently flawed as no control could exist for such experiment. Take a moment to watch Nola clips and marvel at how much movement his pitches generate and how well he controls where they go. He more than passes the eye test. And, yes, his college stats are better than Wimmers. SEC>>>>>>Big Ten

 

I agree 100%, I hate it when the experts label a guy as a "what you see is what you get" type of guy, no guy out of college has maxed out his potential. Watcha added velocity to his FB and so did Heaney, why not Nola? He isn't the biggest guy but he's not short either.

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Here is an article I dug while on the topic of Wacha v Nola. http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/41964/how-18-teams-passed-on-michael-wacha Nobody projected Wacha a a future ace out of college. In fact, Wacha was projected as a quick to the majors #3 and received comps to Leake. It wasn't until sometime after the 2012 draft that he added a few ticks to his low 90s fastball, making his already plus change up that much more effective. I cannot find anyone who said Wacha had a plus-plus change coming out of college. He simply got better. Why can't Nola also get better? If it is true and he could be a #3 right now it sounds kind of crazy to say that is his ceiling...unless he lacks any coach-ability and has completely maxed his physical ability as a 20 year old. Doubtful. Yes, with a few more inches of height Wacha looks the part of a true #1 more than Nola. Maybe Wacha had a better change coming out of college but Nola has superior command, as good or better fast ball, better curve and a solid change himself. Arguments about arm angle lack merit. The fact is whether a pitcher throws sidearm, 3/4 or right over the top the motion is unnatural and can lead to sever injury. No study shows one method or the other is worse or better for the arm and if such study did exist it would be inherently flawed as no control could exist for such experiment. Take a moment to watch Nola clips and marvel at how much movement his pitches generate and how well he controls where they go. He more than passes the eye test. And, yes, his college stats are better than Wimmers. SEC>>>>>>Big Ten

 

I don't have enough time to try and pick this apart. As I said above, we can just agree to disagree. The Twins are obviously interested in him but some of you are extremely high on him. We won't know who is right for awhile but I just don't understand the Wacha comparison.

[twinsin17]

Your disdain for Nola is dully noted. No need to "pick apart" posts, respect for differing opinions works just fine. Personally I am most interested in Gordon, Jackson, Nola and Freeland but considering our recent history of high picks with Buxton and Stewart I feel pretty confident that we'll draft who we feel is the best player and I'd be able to get behind just about anyone at 5.

[AlwaysinModeration]

Wimmers posted a 11.27 SO/9 vs Nola's 9.36. Nola bet him in WHIP/ERA but Wimmers isn't bad at 1.29/2.93. Oh, and Wimmers had 1 less CG but had 22 less starts. Yes, Nola did have a better college career, my bad, but not by much. When did college numbers become the indicator of big league success.

 

I don't think anyone is arguing that college numbers are the only factor in eventual big-league success. But track records certainly count for something, or else why would players stocks shift so much over a single college season? (Rodon's stock dropped with a bad month or so of college play this spring, as an example. Maneaea last year is another example.).

 

You brought up the college comp of Wimmers to Nola. That didn't look right to me. Tyler Beede looks like a better comparison to Wimmers to me.

[nicksaviking]

The movement on his FB has the potential to make it a plus-plus if he could get a few extra ticks on the velocity, and his breaking ball is very close, I would put it as a 65 right now.

 

But when have the Twins ever added a couple of ticks to a fastball or improved strikeout rates? If this were the Cardinals or A's, yeah maybe it would be a good pick as they have a history of getting more out of already well regarded pitchers.

 

The Twins don't. It's been since 2005 that the Twins took a pitcher that even met expectations, that being Matt Garza. I think if you want a front of the rotation arm, they have to get one that already has the velocity and movement like they've done with Meyer, May and Stewart. They aren't sure things, but at least there's a chance.

[nicksaviking]

You brought up the college comp of Wimmers to Nola. That didn't look right to me. Tyler Beede looks like a better comparison to Wimmers to me.

 

Beede is a hard throwing, uncontrollable project. Wimmers was "MLB ready," threw in the low 90's and got strikeouts due to his control; numbers which generally don't translate at the MLB level. Wimmers may have been drafted lower than Nola will likely go, but they appear to be very similar pitchers.

[tobi0040]

There is no point to argue with you if that is how you see Nola's stuff. 4 plus pitches and one being plus-plus? I just can't agree with the optimism. That doesn't make me right or you wrong. It just means we don't see eye to idea.

 

My opinion, which is also worth nothing is that Nola is regarded as having 1 plus pitch (fastball). I have heard this based on movement and it still is not a swing and miss pitch. Wacha is an exception as far as I am concerned. Most kids that are 21 with 0-1 plus pitches don't end up as aces. If we are picking between say an 18 year old with a plus-plus fastball and secondary offerings that need work (Kolek) and a 21 year old with one plus pitch, give me the 18 year old seven days week. Kolek can develop his secondary offerings over the next 3 years when he will be Nola's age. Nola won't develop triple digit velocity.

 

Barring injury, Nola's floor is probably a #4 starter and Kolek's a good closer. Those are fairly close and given Kolek's upside, this seems like a no brainer to me.

[gunnarthor]

I really like the depth of this draft but I'm not as high on the top end as I have been the last two years. If Stewart was in this draft, I'd be hoping and praying he somehow fell to 5 but I don't think he would. Aiken, to me, seems like the only really exciting guy. Kolek could be a one trick pony, Rodon could have been overused in college (like Phil Humber), Jackson would've gone somewhere in the 5-10 range last year, probably behind Meadows, Hoffman would've been great. Gordon doesn't excite me at all but he's probably legit. I think there are a number of pitchers (Nola, Freeland, Touki, Holmes) that are sorta like Bill Simmons Reuben sandwich comparison - you didn't order it you didn't think it was that good, your friend did, and now you want to stab him in the eye and take it.

[Dman]

I really like the depth of this draft but I'm not as high on the top end as I have been the last two years. If Stewart was in this draft, I'd be hoping and praying he somehow fell to 5 but I don't think he would. Aiken, to me, seems like the only really exciting guy. Kolek could be a one trick pony, Rodon could have been overused in college (like Phil Humber), Jackson would've gone somewhere in the 5-10 range last year, probably behind Meadows, Hoffman would've been great. Gordon doesn't excite me at all but he's probably legit. I think there are a number of pitchers (Nola, Freeland, Touki, Holmes) that are sorta like Bill Simmons Reuben sandwich comparison - you didn't order it you didn't think it was that good, your friend did, and now you want to stab him in the eye and take it.

 

I think I agree with you here. Is the 5th pick going to be much better than say the 15th? They all seem pretty equal or have fairly equal upside and downside. I guess it depends in what you value in a pick. I guess I have resigned myself to being happy with whoever the Twins take at #5. Then if it doesn't work out I will blast them for it down the line.

[InfraRen]

Jim Callis was on the Talk To Contact pod recently, and at about 1:05 in he says he thinks perceived Twins interest in Nola is overblown, doesn't think he's their guy:

 

http://www.talktocontact.com/2014/05/episode-85-astatine-jim-callis-and-most.html

[InfraRen]

New Baseball America mock today. Aiken/Jackson/Kolek/Rodon first four, and Twins:

 

[TABLE=class: table-striped, width: 610]

[TD=bgcolor: #F9F9F9]http://cdn.baseballamerica.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/3ds_twins81.jpg5. TWINS:

Other teams believe the Twins are hot on Hartford lefthander Sean Newcomb, and they have done their due diligence there. He combines the power arm the organization needs with the strike-throwing arm action the Twins covet. More likely, though, they will not pass on Gordon, a true shortstop.[/TD]

Projected Pick: SS Nick Gordon

[/TABLE]

[gunnarthor]

Newcomb? Interesting, I don't think we've heard much about him but he's a lefty with a pretty good fastball and did pretty well in the cape cod league last year.

[nicksaviking]

The Twins have been watching him a lot recently. I think he's a legit option.

[Dman]

New Baseball America mock today. Aiken/Jackson/Kolek/Rodon first four, and Twins:

 

[TABLE=class: table-striped, width: 610]

[TD=bgcolor: #F9F9F9]http://cdn.baseballamerica.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/3ds_twins81.jpg5. TWINS:

Other teams believe the Twins are hot on Hartford lefthander Sean Newcomb, and they have done their due diligence there. He combines the power arm the organization needs with the strike-throwing arm action the Twins covet. More likely, though, they will not pass on Gordon, a true shortstop.[/TD]

Projected Pick: SS Nick Gordon

[/TABLE]

 

 

I think this sounds about right. It would be hard to pass on a likely All-Star defensive shortstop with a decent chance to have a good hit tool. Personally I like Newcomb the left handed power arm better but the Twins can still probably find a high risk high reward pitcher in the second round but not a SS. It is also a safe approach as position players in the high rounds tend to be less risky. Gordon sounds like a Twins pick. I get it but would like to see the first two picks be pitchers.

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Mayo's he mock:

 

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article/mlb/mock-draft-brady-aiken-gets-nod-at-no-1-over-carlos-rodon?ymd=20140530&content_id=77457338&vkey=news_mlb

 

Also, mlb.com updated/expands their board:

 

http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/prospects/watch/y2014/#list=draft

[Too Much Twins]

i'm soooo excited for the draftttttt. and i will express this excitement with a constructive outburst:

 

TOUKI TOUKI TOUKI TOUKI TOUKI TOUKI TOUKI

 

anybody else as excited as i am?

[70charger]

Mayo's he mock:

 

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article/mlb/mock-draft-brady-aiken-gets-nod-at-no-1-over-carlos-rodon?ymd=20140530&content_id=77457338&vkey=news_mlb

 

Also, mlb.com updated/expands their board:

 

http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/prospects/watch/y2014/#list=draft

 

 

I'm actually pretty excited about adding a shortstop with the potential of Gordon, and I'm behind that pick for sure.

 

Also, I find the concerns over the bat overblown. Look at the MLB board in the quoted post. His hit tool grades out at 55, and Alex Jackson (the best bat in the draft?) just absolutely blows Gordon away with a ...60.

 

He may not be the once in a generation type that we'd hope for, but only the shortsighted care only about the bat without regard to the position. David Ortiz has a better bat than Tulowitzki, but who would you really rather have on your team? And WAR bears this out too, I think.

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Draft questions from Law's draft chat today:

Is that any validity to the rumor that the Astros would snag Nick Gordon #1? If so, how would the next 3 picks play out?

Klaw (2:05 PM)

No validity, sorry

 

What's the word on the elbow surgery Kyle Freeland had a few years ago? Does he have a clean bill of health now?

Klaw (2:09 PM)

I know some teams flunked him this year, and some cleared him, so it's just a matter of each team's doctor's opinion. And I wouldn't take the fact that anyone flunked him as definitive - a couple of teams flunked Scherzer in the draft too.

 

You have the Cubs taking Conforto (and considering other college players) with the fourth pick. Why don't you think they'd take Jackson or Gordon if either is available?

Klaw (2:24 PM)

I don't think they're on Gordon at that pick. I know they like Jackson but think they prefer other players - and there's a financial benefit to taking a player who'll sign for a little less money so you can allocate the savings to your next pick. I'd linked them to Jack Flaherty, a HS RHP from Giolito's/Austin Wilson's old HS, with that second pick.

 

If you draft Alex Jackson do you immediately move him off of catcher to advance the bat as fast as possible? Or do you keep him there?

Klaw (2:33 PM)

I keep him there because back there he might be a superstar, and he's not bad in any respect

 

At this point, what do you think the odds are that someone other than Aiken go 1/1?

Klaw (2:05 PM)

Maybe 40% Aiken, 30% Rodon, 30% Alex Jackson? Those are the only three names they're on, and I might be overweighting Jackson a little.

 

He answered a ton more draft questions and one about Vargas in the chat. Here is the link:

 

http://espn.go.com/sportsnation/chat/_/id/50668/mlb-insider-keith-law

[nicksaviking]

I'm actually pretty excited about adding a shortstop with the potential of Gordon, and I'm behind that pick for sure.

 

Also, I find the concerns over the bat overblown. Look at the MLB board in the quoted post. His hit tool grades out at 55, and Alex Jackson (the best bat in the draft?) just absolutely blows Gordon away with a ...60.

 

He may not be the once in a generation type that we'd hope for, but only the shortsighted care only about the bat without regard to the position. David Ortiz has a better bat than Tulowitzki, but who would you really rather have on your team? And WAR bears this out too, I think.

 

I care more about the bat than the position. I'd rather have Manny Rameriz as a corner outfielder than Alan Trammell at SS. Their WAR is pretty identical. The position bonus for WAR is weighted way to heavily. Offense is still, and always will be more important than defense. Rameriz has over a 200 point edge in career OPS. No defense in the world makes up for that.

[twinsfan34]

I think I agree with you here. Is the 5th pick going to be much better than say the 15th? They all seem pretty equal or have fairly equal upside and downside. I guess it depends in what you value in a pick. I guess I have resigned myself to being happy with whoever the Twins take at #5. Then if it doesn't work out I will blast them for it down the line.

 

I agree as well, but I'd sacrifice ALL our prospects at SS in the Twins system and this years #5 pick to have last year's #16 pick.

 

One, JP Crawford.

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=crawfo000jp-

 

Law said today in his chat, thought he was going to be good and a bit slow developing. Now, believes he's an absolute star to come.

[twinsfan34]

Law said Gordon is a guy the Twins have followed all season long. And he's a guy who shows a lot of "polish" and for a high school kid, he'll likely move up the [farm] system pretty fast as compared to most high school players.

 

I have the feeling Jackson will be gone by the time the Twins select. Either #2 or #4. Then the other 3 power pitchers (Aiken, Rodon, & Koleck) being the other picks.

 

Touki could be great. Nola is likely to be at least a Brandon Arroyo with more K's by 2015. But Gordon seems to be a solid selection.

 

I wish there was more hit and power as we seem to have the most depth at SS, although each of them seems to have one major issue. From Santana to Goodrum to Polanco to Vielma.

 

If Buxton can hit his 18-25 HR, Sano his 35-45 HR, Pinto his 20-25, and Arcia becomes what I think he can be, a 25-32 HR guy I guess we'd be in pretty good shape power wise going forward. But if not...could be some lean years again. When this team isn't walking it's not scoring runs without a power bat. Which is reflective of OBP, arguably shown to be the most indicative offensive stat of RS and thus, Wins. I'd take a great fielding SS who has a .375+ OBP...not caring that much about his other numbers.

[cmb0252]

Kiley McDaniel's new mock draft:

 

http://sbb.scout.com/story/1407185