2014 MLB Draft Thread

[Mike Sixel]

Great, that means it won't happen......

[InfraRen]

Great, that means it won't happen......

 

A lotttt of people said Stewart to Twins last year though.

[Mike Sixel]

I was trying the reverse jinx.....now I don't know if I am pro or against jinxing...

[twinsfan34]

I'm with Mike, jinxing the jinx, or unjinxing. Anything to stir that pot.

 

Of Nick's 5...

 

I think I like Newcomb, Gordon, Jackson.

 

I know I like Newcomb a lot more than Freeland.

 

I want to know Gordon is faster and can hit .300. Otherwise, I'd rather see what comes of Santana, Polanco, Goodrum, and Vielma. Or even see Dozier move to SS with Rosario or any of those other aforementioned guys at 2B.

 

I am guessing the pick is Gordon, unless the Twins feel solid about 1 of those 4 guys I mentioned. Otherwise, you're picking a pretty weak bat that doesn't play much anywhere else.

 

Hitters typically turn out more than pitchers, but that said, you need more bullets in the gun concerning pitchers.

 

Three years from now, how many of these guys make it through the system starting for the Twins with a sub 4.0 ERA/FIP?

 

Meyer

May

Baxendale

Berrios

Stewart

Landa

Gonsalves

Thorpe

Slegers

Romero

Jorge

Rosario

 

Is two an overly optimistic guess? Three?

 

Does a college pitcher make more sense with such a glut of guys at ELZ/A/A+?

 

Maybe why Nola (and maybe Newcomb) are more of interest...at least press wise of late.

[Mike Sixel]

Of the likely pitchers, I like Touissant the best (did I spell the right?).

[twinsfanstreif]

A lotttt of people said Stewart to Twins last year though.

 

Also in years past Buxton was heavily reported as was Parmelee, Hicks, and Wimmers. We generally go with what is reported, we tend to not be smoke screeners, the only years I can remember that were surprises were Levi Michael and Ben Revere and Levi wasn't supposed to be there.

[cmb0252]

Of the likely pitchers, I like Touissant the best (did I spell the right?).

 

Touissants stuff is hard not to like. I could live the Twins taking him at #5. I actually like Holmes a little more and prefer him to Nola/Newcomb.

[InfraRen]

^Yeah, outside of the "big 3" and Hoffman discounted, Touki is probably the most intriguing P to me.

[ericchri]

How could you not want somebody named Touki Touissant on your team? I haven't looked through the whole list but I'd wager on him having the "most-fun-to-say" name in the draft.

 

Reading this thread has been interesting. I can honestly say that everybody who's been linked to the Twins as a pick sounds fine to me. Gordon, Kolek, Nola, Jackson, Freeland, etc..., all have points in their favor, and while I can understand how everyone will have a favorite, I don't think I'll be disappointed regardless of who they take.

[tobi0040]

I think my wishlist is

 

Aiken

Rodon

Kolek

Jackson

Holmes

Toussaint

Gordon

Newcomb

 

But those last five are pretty close to a push for me.

 

My top 4 is the same, with Kolek and Jackson flipped. My #5 is Touki. In reality, unless one of the pitchers falls to us, this draft has Gordon written all over it.

[twinkiesfan11]

Also in years past Buxton was heavily reported as was Parmelee, Hicks, and Wimmers. We generally go with what is reported, we tend to not be smoke screeners, the only years I can remember that were surprises were Levi Michael and Ben Revere and Levi wasn't supposed to be there.

 

This may be naive, but it doesn't seem to me that there would be quite as much point in smoke screening in the MLB draft as opposed to say the NBA or NFL drafts where trades are allowed. Seems to me that when your slot is fixed you can just focus on the players that are highest rated on your board, sit back and wait your turn. The picks ahead of you are completely out of your control and no one behind you can trade up to steal the player you're targeting. I could definitely see keeping your evaluations close to the vest though, particularly deeper in the draft where you're trying to find those diamonds in the rough that your scouts have been working with.

[twinkiesfan11]

My top 4 is the same, with Kolek and Jackson flipped. My #5 is Touki. In reality, unless one of the pitchers falls to us, this draft has Gordon written all over it.

 

I don't see anyone in that list that I'd be upset with. A pitcher would be great since you can never have enough but to me when you have Thorpe and Gonsalves among others not even able to crack a full season rotation due to the depth ahead of them and your Low-A team almost completely devoid of position player prospects, I'm kind of liking the idea of adding an impact position player like Gordon or Jackson. Up the middle prospects are always hard to come by so my vote would be Gordon if he's available. Plus this draft is deep in pitching so there should be a decent pitcher available at 46.

[Dman]

The pick will be Gordon but I would prefer a pitcher. I don't see Gordon hitting well enough but obviously the Twins do. I think we have the position players we need for the foreseeable future but we need great pitching and pitching depth to make it to the world series. We should continue to invest in pitching with the first two picks. Go position player crazy after that.

[twinsfanstreif]

The pick will be Gordon but I would prefer a pitcher. I don't see Gordon hitting well enough but obviously the Twins do. I think we have the position players we need for the foreseeable future but we need great pitching and pitching depth to make it to the world series. We should continue to invest in pitching with the first two picks. Go position player crazy after that.

 

I don't see Gordon hitting enough either, that's why I'm hoping the Cubs take him with #4, that would leave us with Jackson or Nola, I'd be happy with that

[tobi0040]

This may be naive, but it doesn't seem to me that there would be quite as much point in smoke screening in the MLB draft as opposed to say the NBA or NFL drafts where trades are allowed. Seems to me that when your slot is fixed you can just focus on the players that are highest rated on your board, sit back and wait your turn. The picks ahead of you are completely out of your control and no one behind you can trade up to steal the player you're targeting. I could definitely see keeping your evaluations close to the vest though, particularly deeper in the draft where you're trying to find those diamonds in the rough that your scouts have been working with.

 

 

I agree, are teams really going to take a guy they think is inferior because they want to block them from a team behind them?

[Mike Sixel]

The pick will be Gordon but I would prefer a pitcher. I don't see Gordon hitting well enough but obviously the Twins do. I think we have the position players we need for the foreseeable future but we need great pitching and pitching depth to make it to the world series. We should continue to invest in pitching with the first two picks. Go position player crazy after that.

 

What do you base that on? Every scouting report I read says he'll hit and field enough to be potentially be an all star.

 

I have no idea how you think they have all the position players they need. Who is in LF in the future? Who is your future DH, if Arcia is in RF? Who is your 1B? Your SS? Your other catcher besides Pinto? The only way they have all the position players the need is if every top prospect they have works out, and even then they are short, imo. That seems unlikely.

[twinsfan34]

I too think the pick will be Gordon...but don't like the projection he offers. His ceiling hit tool projects 50-55.

 

That's .255-265.

 

Keith Law and others say his "hit tool will be a little better than average"...average is around .252-.259. So that falls in line.

 

That's too low for a top 5 pick IMO.

[nicksaviking]

This may be naive, but it doesn't seem to me that there would be quite as much point in smoke screening in the MLB draft as opposed to say the NBA or NFL drafts where trades are allowed.

 

In the early rounds, the smoke screen likely has more to do with hiding your intentions with the player. If the Twins want player X at #5 surely they will want he and his agent to think there are a multitude of players they WANT but will sign the guy who is accomodating to the team's offer.

 

In later rounds, smoke screens would be helpful because really, after round 5 or so, guys start getting drafted that other teams never even scouted. Mid to late round players are such a crap shoot, but you still have the guys you like.

[twinsfanstreif]

What do you base that on? Every scouting report I read says he'll hit and field enough to be potentially be an all star.

 

I have no idea how you think they have all the position players they need. Who is in LF in the future? Who is your future DH, if Arcia is in RF? Who is your 1B? Your SS? Your other catcher besides Pinto? The only way they have all the position players the need is if every top prospect they have works out, and even then they are short, imo. That seems unlikely.

 

most scouting reports give him a plus in fielding and speed but every one I read have his hit tool very questionable, it could develop and he could be an all star or it could not and he's Adam Everett, that's the danger with Gordon

[tobi0040]

What do you base that on? Every scouting report I read says he'll hit and field enough to be potentially be an all star.

 

I have no idea how you think they have all the position players they need. Who is in LF in the future? Who is your future DH, if Arcia is in RF? Who is your 1B? Your SS? Your other catcher besides Pinto? The only way they have all the position players the need is if every top prospect they have works out, and even then they are short, imo. That seems unlikely.

 

Sano and Buxton are as close to locks as they come in the lineup. Between DH and Corner OF spots, you have a long list of guys. Arcia, Rosario, Vargas, Hicks, Harrison, Walker, and Kepler . I wouldn't be thinking about a backup catcher at #5 and we have Mauer at 1B.

 

I just hope if we take Gordon it is because we think he is the best talent available, not becase of MLB need. The upside just seems relatively low here, I think Newcomb Touki, etc. offer more. When I read Touki's profile I see 92-95 fastball, runs up to 97 and the best curve in this draft. A future 70 pitch. When I read about Newcomb I see 6-5 lefty, mid 90's fastball with a very good slider, a future 70 pitch.

 

It is easier to get excited about those two.

[cmb0252]

I too think the pick will be Gordon...but don't like the projection he offers. His ceiling hit tool projects 50-55.

 

That's .255-265.

 

Keith Law and others say his "hit tool will be a little better than average"...average is around .252-.259. So that falls in line.

 

That's too low for a top 5 pick IMO.

 

A 50 grade hit tool is .270-.275 depending on the source.

[Brandon]

above average and better SS and Ace starting pitchers seem to be the hardest players to get on the open market so if there is one of them that is in the group for best player available, we should go with one of them.

[twinkiesfan11]

Gordon seems like a guy with a decent ceiling thanks to his athleticism, bloodlines, makeup and present skills. Conversely he seems like a guy with a pretty decent floor for a high schooler for all of the same reasons. A shortstop that can hit .255 with some extra base pop, some steals and better than average defense is pretty valuable if for no other reason than because they're so scarce.

[Kwak]

At 5th overall, the Twins should be seeking a player who could be either a middle-of-the-line-up hitter, or a #1 pitcher. True, that guy may not exist, but taking the "safe" choice, or compromising to obtain a certain position player would be a big mistake.

[Mike Sixel]

Who said anything about a safe choice? You wouldn't take an all star SS at 5? I would, if I thought that he would be that......I guess some arguing for Nola might be doing that, but I don't think any Gordon or Touki or Jackson supporter is doing that

[twinkiesfan11]

At 5th overall, the Twins should be seeking a player who could be either a middle-of-the-line-up hitter, or a #1 pitcher. True, that guy may not exist, but taking the "safe" choice, or compromising to obtain a certain position player would be a big mistake.

 

Agree to disagree, in my opinion a guy with a ceiling of a top of the order hitter at the most difficult/valuable defensive position on the diamond is every bit as solid of a pick as a guy with the ceiling of middle of the order hitter or the ceiling of #2 pitcher (Note - do any of the top 3 pitchers even profile as #1's?).

[nicksaviking]

Who said anything about a safe choice? You wouldn't take an all star SS at 5? I would, if I thought that he would be that......I guess some arguing for Nola might be doing that, but I don't think any Gordon or Touki or Jackson supporter is doing that

 

I can't speak for others, but when it comes to picking a bat at #5, I want the best bat available regardless of position. I want a great bat, I don't want the qualifying addendum. In other words, I want to say, "He's got a great bat!" not, "He's got a great bat... for a shortstop!"

[Dman]

What do you base that on? Every scouting report I read says he'll hit and field enough to be potentially be an all star.

 

I have no idea how you think they have all the position players they need. Who is in LF in the future? Who is your future DH, if Arcia is in RF? Who is your 1B? Your SS? Your other catcher besides Pinto? The only way they have all the position players the need is if every top prospect they have works out, and even then they are short, imo. That seems unlikely.

 

Maybe I am pitcher biased. Gordon is very good and most mocks have him going in the top 10. Most scouting reports I have read say he likely has all-star defense and then some like his potential bat better than others. I am no scout and in the past I have often been wrong about certain picks. I think there is a good chance he will succeed but how much better will he be over Vielma or some other guy we already have I am not sure?

 

Sure you can never have enough of any type of player and I probably stated that poorly. I just want to see better pitchers over almost anything else they can do. Even if it meant a few average or sub par position players I think better pitching will help this team more than any other investment.

 

Certainly BPA is the way to go and they proved that with Buxton but I don't think Gordon is the BPA at 5 unless you need a SS. I like Jackson better at 5 than Gordan and as I stated earlier I think there are pitchers that would work at number 5 as well. They are riskier than the Gordan pick but have greater potential as well in my opinion.

 

The Twins have done well the past few drafts. I just have a personal bias for pitching that I can admit clouds my judgement.

[tobi0040]

A 50 grade hit tool is .270-.275 depending on the source.

 

I think batting average in a bubble is not the way to view hitting. You have power too, which is another tool altogether (one he doesn't have much of). It doesn't factor in walks at all. .270 with 5 HR and no walks is not a very good hitter for example

[tobi0040]

Maybe I am pitcher biased. Gordon is very good and most mocks have him going in the top 10. Most scouting reports I have read say he likely has all-star defense and then some like his potential bat better than others. I am no scout and in the past I have often been wrong about certain picks. I think there is a good chance he will succeed but how much better will he be over Vielma or some other guy we already have I am not sure?

 

Sure you can never have enough of any type of player and I probably stated that poorly. I just want to see better pitchers over almost anything else they can do. Even if it meant a few average or sub par position players I think better pitching will help this team more than any other investment.

 

Certainly BPA is the way to go and they proved that with Buxton but I don't think Gordon is the BPA at 5 unless you need a SS. I like Jackson better at 5 than Gordan and as I stated earlier I think there are pitchers that would work at number 5 as well. They are riskier than the Gordan pick but have greater potential as well in my opinion.

 

The Twins have done well the past few drafts. I just have a personal bias for pitching that I can admit clouds my judgement.

 

My preference should be qualified as well. I am as excited about Gordon right now as I was when I kept seeing us linked to Buxton (not very excited).