Aledmys Diaz: Do we want him and at what cost?

[halfchest]

So, I'll start this thread by saying I know very little about Diaz but I'm very intrigued and want to know more. SS is the main position we don't have a current long term player at and we don't have a top prospect coming through the system to fill the void. We can argue back and forth about Santana, Polanco, and Goodrum being our SS of the future but that's not the point. Right now most positions we are either pretty set at or have a top prospect coming to fill the void. The main opening appears to be at SS in my opinion. We argued a lot about Stephen Drew but now I'd like to see the same argument for Diaz. Here's my questions/talking points. I honestly know little about him other than he's Cuban and he lied about his age. He's a SS and he's supposed to make some good money.

 

Is he Major League ready? if not how close?

 

Is he a sure thing to stick at SS defensively?

 

How much better of a prospect is he than our current MI guys like Santana/Goodrum/Polanco?

 

How much is he worth/how long term of deal should the Twins be willing to go?

[twinsfanstl]

Some info here:

http://itsaboutthemoney.net/archives/2014/02/07/international-free-agent-aledmys-diaz-scouting-report/

 

Personally- I'd much rather the twins gamble(?) on him than sign Drew or (gulp) hope that our in house options are going to fill this really gaping need. I wonder how much of the Nishi hangover effect will come into play here...

[nicksaviking]

I'm all in on this guy assuming he can stick at SS. Probably can't answer those questions though until his showcase at the earliest.

[Brock Beauchamp]

If the Twins aren't interested in Drew (and given Ryan's current situation, I think this offseason is done), then strongly considering Diaz is a smart move. I'm on board, provided he doesn't get stupid money thrown at him (and you never can tell with these international guys).

[oldguy10]

I heartily disagree that we are "set" at most positions what with the talent currently on the roster and the prospects coming along. Unless "set" means more 90+ losses for a very long time. Sure the prospects look promising but many will stumble and as for the current roster I would define "set" and/or decent players as very few in number unless of course fans will settle for mediocrity for a number of years yet. Sorry to be so pessimistic but I am really trying to be realistic.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I heartily disagree that we are "set" at most positions what with the talent currently on the roster and the prospects coming along. Unless "set" means more 90+ losses for a very long time. Sure the prospects look promising but many will stumble and as for the current roster I would define "set" and/or decent players as very few in number unless of course fans will settle for mediocrity for a number of years yet. Sorry to be so pessimistic but I am really trying to be realistic.

 

Some prospects will fail, absolutely.

 

On the other hand, they need to play before we know if they have failed. If the team picked up a couple of OF bats, maybe a decent catcher, then those prospects will struggle to get the ABs needed to become a successful MLB player. No matter how many FAs Ryan signs, this team won't be consistently successful until Hicks, Pinto, Arcia, Sano, Buxton, Rosario, Gibson, and Meyer establish themselves as MLB players.

 

At shortstop, there are no high upside prospects coming in the next year or more.

[johnnydakota]

Well I have stated in several posts that to me it is better to throw money at Diaz , then to give it to ...say Drew. I prefer to have a young kid come in and growup with the team.This is an area of need and he is probally the best option out there who will be quality when the Twins need it most,unless we make a trade . So 35-42 million over 6-7 year,including the signing bonus (5 million signinig bonus and 6 million over 6 years)

[cmathewson]

I think the Twins should take an any and all approach to SS. So, yeah, let's go after him.

[howieramone1406390264]

I think we are set at all positions except SS for years to come, and support those who believe we will have evidence of this in under 14 months. It's well known our favorite team will take the best BPA in the June draft. My best guess is the BPA will be Trea Turner, with an ETA of no later than 2016.

 

I think Ryan will fill the final black hole, and go back to semi-retirement as he deserves.

[Guest USAFChief]

Some info here:http://itsaboutthemoney.net/archives/2014/02/07/international-free-agent-aledmys-diaz-scouting-report/Personally- I'd much rather the twins gamble(?) on him than sign Drew or (gulp) hope that our in house options are going to fill this really gaping need....

Why not both?

[bird]

Some prospects will fail, absolutely.

 

On the other hand, they need to play before we know if they have failed. If the team picked up a couple of OF bats, maybe a decent catcher, then those prospects will struggle to get the ABs needed to become a successful MLB player. No matter how many FAs Ryan signs, this team won't be consistently successful until Hicks, Pinto, Arcia, Sano, Buxton, Rosario, Gibson, and Meyer establish themselves as MLB players.

 

At shortstop, there are no high upside prospects coming in the next year or more.

 

I agree with this but with the caveat that a year ago the consensus was that we lacked a high upside prospect for second base, and we can recall that Dozier was probably less highly regarded than Santana is right now.

 

That said, I have no idea whether Diaz would be a good idea and would be pleased if the Twins decided he was.

[Mike Sixel]

They are sitting on huge piles of money, why not sign him? Even if he is not a SS long term, those are the guys that become 2B and OF for good teams.....

[halfchest]

I heartily disagree that we are "set" at most positions what with the talent currently on the roster and the prospects coming along. Unless "set" means more 90+ losses for a very long time. Sure the prospects look promising but many will stumble and as for the current roster I would define "set" and/or decent players as very few in number unless of course fans will settle for mediocrity for a number of years yet. Sorry to be so pessimistic but I am really trying to be realistic.

 

You're right, I guess I see SS as the most obvious position where we don't have someone on the major league roster or strong prospects that inspire confidence.

 

1B - Mauer

2B - Dozier w/ Rosario, Polanco, and Santana as prospects

3B - Sano nuff said

C - Pinto - looked good, would like if we had a better veteran C on the roster

OF - Arcia, Hicks, Buxton, possibly Rosario, Kepler - guys close probably wouldn't hurt to add a good veteran if one was available. Say a guy like Cruz was cheap but really I'd rather see the guys we have get time out there this year. Give Kepler another shot.

 

So that leaves SS - Florimon . . . maybe Santana? maybe Goodrum? Maybe Polanco.

 

I guess this one leaves me as the hardest to fill in free agency and the least talented in the system. So no we are not "set" but we at least appear to have a plan of some sort and good potential at most positions over the next couple years. Really the only set position we have is 1B I suppose.

[halfchest]

for OF I meant give Parmelee another shot out there this year. Also wouldn't mind seeing Plouffe get some outfield reps if/when Sano comes out. I'd love to see if Plouffe could fill a utility DH/corner OF/IF role at some point.

[cmathewson]

You're right, I guess I see SS as the most obvious position where we don't have someone on the major league roster or strong prospects that inspire confidence.

 

1B - Mauer

2B - Dozier w/ Rosario, Polanco, and Santana as prospects

3B - Sano nuff said

C - Pinto - looked good, would like if we had a better veteran C on the roster

OF - Arcia, Hicks, Buxton, possibly Rosario, Kepler - guys close probably wouldn't hurt to add a good veteran if one was available. Say a guy like Cruz was cheap but really I'd rather see the guys we have get time out there this year. Give Kepler another shot.

 

So that leaves SS - Florimon . . . maybe Santana? maybe Goodrum? Maybe Polanco.

 

I guess this one leaves me as the hardest to fill in free agency and the least talented in the system. So no we are not "set" but we at least appear to have a plan of some sort and good potential at most positions over the next couple years. Really the only set position we have is 1B I suppose.

 

It is ever thus. If there is one thing the previous GM did most wrong, it was trading two major league quality shortstops with not much in return. He acted like SS is just like any other position. We draft and sign shortstops all the time, but most of them move because of the demands of the position. Therein lies the problem. Every team faces this challenge, all the time. If this kid can play short now, sign him. It's that simple.

[TheLeviathan]

I'm not sure there is an adjective appropriate to describe how much I prefer throwing money at this guy over Drew.

[johnnydakota]

Why not both?

 

Short arms, low pockets?

[twinsfanstl]

'indubitable' work?

[Brock Beauchamp]

I agree with this but with the caveat that a year ago the consensus was that we lacked a high upside prospect for second base, and we can recall that Dozier was probably less highly regarded than Santana is right now.

 

Well, sure... You can always get lucky with a breakout prospect but that doesn't mean it's a good idea to form a roster around the concept of striking gold multiple times.

[bird]

Well, sure... You can always get lucky with a breakout prospect but that doesn't mean it's a good idea to form a roster around the concept of striking gold multiple times.

 

While I agree that they should pursue a sure thing when the right opportunity presents itself, I'd hardly call Dozier or any other successful prospect a product of luck and a gold strike. Some fail and some succeed, but it's hardly random luck at work. We don't know if Diaz or Santana are sure things, and Drew presents his own set of risks (unless one dismisses money as reason to pass someone up, which many do).

 

All I'm saying is that if Drew and Diaz are determined by the Twins to be poor choices, it's not the worst thing in the world to live with Florimon for 2014, and it's not a given that someone doesn't emerge as a decent solution a la Dozier.

[PseudoSABR]

If he can't stick at short, there's really no point. I'm all about adding assets, but adding to the redundancy of second or third base doesn't seem prudent, unless he can hit the bejesus out of the ball.

[ScottyB]

From the scouting report and video, he looks to be a JJ Hardy type of shortstop. He may not have elite range, but smart placement by the coaches (and I have every confidence that Molitor and Vavra can place him properly) should extend that range and with a plus arm, he should be fine at short. IMO he's a much better option than Drew. A shortstop with power would be a great addition, even next to another limited range player next to him at 3B (Sano). He's only 23 - about the same age as Santana, 1 year older than Goodrum and 2 years older than Polanco, none of whom are major league ready. If he is, in fact, major league ready you have to go all in to get him. Even if we do draft a shortstop like Trea Turner, Diaz would be great trade bait. But it would allow the Twins to not draft a shortstop, but a high upside HS pitcher in the draft.

 

The only question would be, would Diaz have any interest in joining a rebuilding program, likely to lose 90+ games once again this season. My guess is if the Yankees want him to replace Jeter, they can out-muscle everyone to get him. The appeal of the Yankees, unfortunately, means that much.

[twinsfan34]

I'm not sure there is an adjective appropriate to describe how much I prefer throwing money at this guy over Drew.

 

Couldn't have said it better myself.

 

I'd rather guess here and get it wrong at $5M-$7M per than Drew.

 

I guess the question for the Twins isn't so much about money though, but rather how they feel about Danny Santana.

 

I'm along the lines of having 2 bullets in our SS gun...can't count on Santana as a 'can't miss' prospect - unlike Buxton and Sano - who have 'floors' that would play on the Twins (and most clubs) any year.

 

Buxton's is a floor Devon White, Torii Hunter, Cesar Cedeno, or Marquis Grissom type.

Sano's floor is Dean Palmer or Mark Reynolds type.

 

Polanco doesn't look like he'll be able to transition to SS. He's only going to be 20 this year and some guys add strength at that age. So still plausible. It looks like his bat will place him more than anything.

 

I'm also fine with drafting Trea Turner...unless he had some glaring hole...if available at #5. SS's are at a premium. Hard to find. He has the speed, the arm, and the range. He may never hit more than 12-15 HR...but could hit .280 with his speed without much fanfare along with 35-55 SB a season. Works for me.

[Dman]

I think it would be worth it for the Twins to get this guy but they won't. We never outbid the Yankee's or LA for FA players. The Twins are more likely to hope that Florimon improves his hitting and that Santana improves his fielding than risking big money on an international player. The team is in development mode for this year anyway so I don't think they feel a sense of urgency to take a risk like that. They also might end up drafting their shortstop of future in this years draft. The Twins way is to develop and build from within unless absolute disaster strikes. They always love the guys they have on the farm.

 

Can you ever have enough good players? No. Do they have the money? Yes. Will they do it? I don't think so.

[John Bonnes]

Ok, so let's talk about just how much we want him. Jose Abreu got 6/68M, right? Just how serious are we? That serious?

[Willihammer]

Abreu is, without much argument, the best Serie Nacional batter of the past 5 years, maybe 10. Diaz isn't even in that conversation. I guess I'm missing something.

[nicksaviking]

I'm not sure there is an adjective appropriate to describe how much I prefer throwing money at this guy over Drew.

 

How about 'sane'

[nicksaviking]

Abreu is, without much argument, the best Serie Nacional batter of the past 5 years, maybe 10. Diaz isn't even in that conversation. I guess I'm missing something.

 

Agreed, there's not nearly the hype on this guy as there was for Abreu, his price should be much less

 

That being said, if the Dodgers, Yankees or another big club wants him, we probably can't kid ourselves, the Twins would have to overpay to pry him out of the big market, contending team.

[ashbury]

Ok, so let's talk about just how much we want him. Jose Abreu got 6/68M, right? Just how serious are we? That serious?

 

I'll go Nishioka Money.

[strumdatjag]

The Twins may take Trea Turner, a speedy college junior SS, in the 2014 draft. He projects to be a SS if he makes it to MLB. He's a potential leadoff hitter who can steal bases (which would allow the Twins in 2016 to bat Buxton #3, Sano #4 and Mauer at 2 or 5 depending on his power numbers after the move to first and considering his age). No need to panic at SS. There are a lot of options including trading for one.