Article: TD Top Prospects: #3 Alex Meyer

[Nick Nelson]

You can view the page at http://www.twinsdaily.com/content.php/2668-TD-Top-Prospects-3-Alex-Meyer

[Otwins]

I agree with your most important prospect label. There are a growing number of pitching prospects in the minors but not many are that close to the majors. Santana and I think Liriano started in the bullpen when they were first called up moved into the rotation later in the year. It limits the innings and lets the rookie pitcher start out with lower leverage appearances. Have a little success, build some confidence then start. I wish they would consider that approach with Meyer. Last year by the time Gibson came up he was close to his innings limit. Could happen again if Meyer starts in AAA.

[spoofbonser]

Pitching is so unreliable, basically always the chance of being an inning away from Tommy John. "you can never have too much pitching," comes to mind. I don't see any pitcher as being the most important piece, unless they stay healthy and it turns out they are the most important piece.

 

Makes me happy to see a strong top ten, even after graduating perrenial top tens, Aaron Hicks, Oswaldo Arcia, and Kyle Gibson. If you added those guys, it'd look like:

 

#10 Hicks

#9 Gibson

#8 Pinto

#7 Berrios

#6 Rosario

#5 Stewart

#4 Arcia

#3 Meyer

#2 Sano

#1 Buxton

[Dman]

Any chance at near future success for the Twins appears to rest on Meyer's shoulders. He is the only near ready ace type the Twins have until the 18 and 19 year old prospects make their way up the ladder. The Twins don't buy ace's in free agency and you don't win the world series without an ace on your staff. If Meyer turns out to be a bust then we are looking at 2017 or 2018 before we can truly compete.

[nicksaviking]

I agree with your most important prospect label. There are a growing number of pitching prospects in the minors but not many are that close to the majors. Santana and I think Liriano started in the bullpen when they were first called up moved into the rotation later in the year. It limits the innings and lets the rookie pitcher start out with lower leverage appearances. Have a little success, build some confidence then start. I wish they would consider that approach with Meyer. Last year by the time Gibson came up he was close to his innings limit. Could happen again if Meyer starts in AAA.

 

St. Louis has been doing this a lot lately too. I'd rather see future rotation hopefuls like Meyer and May in the pen building up confidence and getting some MLB innings than past rotation duds like Diamond and Worley. Not going to happen though unless the Twins are able to move some of these swing guys. They don't want to lose them for nothing.

[Dantes929]

When you have that kind of stuff it is hard not to be a thrower rather than a pitcher. It was often overlooked but Verlander used to throw harder but was only 7-7 against the "good" Twins. Like Koufax did way back when, Verlander discovered he can dial it back just a little and the gain in control more than offsets the decrease in velocity. He was great because of his stuff but is even better now because he uses it in a smarter way. He can still dial it up when he wants to. A well placed 95 mph trumps a 99mph down the middle. I understand all the reasons for holding him back but I suspect if Meyer was added to the rotation from the get go he would be the staff ace by end of season.

[Monkeypaws]

Last year by the time Gibson came up he was close to his innings limit. Could happen again if Meyer starts in AAA.

 

That's exactly what I was going to say.

[Ncgo4]

Has Meyer been invited to training camp? I assume he has but have not been able to confirm anywhere.

[birddog]

I am really hoping the Twins take Meyer north when they break camp; however, the 40-man roster is quickly becoming a sore spot that could end up biting the Twins as a number of training camp invitees who have a legitimate shot at making the team are not on the roster. With only one open spot and Kubel almost a lock to make the team, the Twins would have to drop players off the roster to make room for young studs like Meyer. TR already faced tough decisions in naming the 40-man after the World Series, choosing whether to protect young prospects or our middling major leaguers. That job will get only tougher in the upcoming seasons. You would never guess it would be an issue for a team that has lost close to 100 games for three consecutive seasons. By the way, our thoughts and prayers are with TR. We hope he is back with the team soon.

[Paul Pleiss]

I look forward to seeing Alex pitch down in ST and breaking into the Twins rotation around the middle of the season if things go well. It would be nice for Twins fans to see both Gibson and Meyer up with the big league club around the all-star break, especially if the team is already dominating the cellar of the AL Central. If the team finds a way to contend early I'd be more content to let Meyer get more seasoning and work on his command within the zone down in AAA, but if the team is losing, as a fan I'd at least like to get a look at the "ace in the hole."

[MileHighTwinsFan]

Is it clear that the Twins FA signings this past season reflect a long term strategy of trying to effectively maximize the long term impact of their highest prospects? Starting Meyer's clock too soon by having him spend a significant time with the ML club this year would undermine our long term goal of having Meyer, Buxton, Sano and the remaining core peaking at about the same time and under control for as much time as possible. While I think he will make his debut this year - it is hard to imagine it won't be until after Gibson and others get chances ahead of him. I would be hard pressed to see him make more than a handful of starts with an innings limit, with most coming in Late-June - Early August - before getting shut down.

[jharaldson]

shoulder soreness can be a lingering malady for many pitchers.

 

Shoulder soreness is not a malady or disease. Shoulder soreness that last months is a symptom of a condition. What Alex Meyer has is an medical condition that the Twins were unable diagnose to treat with any precision that magically went away after 2+ months of inactivity.

[cmb0252]

I just can't see Meyer breaking camp with the Twins. Too many things going against him. Full rotation, starting his clock to early, inning limits, and so on.

[Mike Sixel]

I would be shocked if he's up here before June. They can say service time doesn't matter, but no one believes that......

[Dantes929]

Of course service time means a great deal. If he does come up he apparently has the stuff to be the staff ace. That's why if they are within shouting distance of contention that is when he should be brought up. If they are contending and Meyer is doing well then I would not be as content to let him stay in the minors.

[Mike Sixel]

If he's ready in June, he should be up then. Unless of course Pelfrey and KC and the Gang are dominant......it's not like he's 21.

[jokin]

Of course service time means a great deal. If he does come up he apparently has the stuff to be the staff ace. That's why if they are within shouting distance of contention that is when he should be brought up. If they are contending and Meyer is doing well then I would not be as content to let him stay in the minors.

 

As suggested in the Top 100 Fangraphs article, there seems to be a trend away from this type of thinking, although the emphasis in the article was with high school arms. But maybe even moreso with high-end college arms? Meyer is 24 now and it appears that his stuff is the best the Twins have to offer--

 

right now.

 

I don't see anything too financially damaging to the club by letting a potential ace get his feet wet this year so that contending becomes a more viable option in 2015- if he's showing mastery of AAA, why not call him up after the arb deadline date this year? That still gives you team control of Meyer through age 30.

 

My feeling is that with all the hemming and hawing on Gibson's consistency last year, by the time he came up, his TJ-recovering arm was already in full fatigue-mode. Who knows, if he had been called up in May when his arm was still fresh, he could have been less of a question mark and more of a sure thing for the rotation, meaning that the Twins could have redirected their FA money on a better target. Regardless, Gibson got his feet wet and made some crystal-clear-in-the-light-of-day discoveries of MLB hitters on what he needed to work on to make the rotation in 2014.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I don't see any reason why Meyer's service time should be a consideration past June of this year.

 

What are the Twins going to do, stash him in the minors until June of 2015? That seems like a giant waste for everyone involved.

 

Let him get some starts in the second half of 2014 and then evaluate from there.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I would be shocked if he's up here before June. They can say service time doesn't matter, but no one believes that......

 

They broke camp with Aaron Hicks on the roster just last season. I'd say that service time matters less to the Twins than it does many other teams, much to my chagrin.

[jokin]

St. Louis has been doing this a lot lately too. I'd rather see future rotation hopefuls like Meyer and May in the pen building up confidence and getting some MLB innings than past rotation duds like Diamond and Worley. Not going to happen though unless the Twins are able to move some of these swing guys. They don't want to lose them for nothing.

 

Michael Wacha got a 3-start debut, with mixed results starting in late May at age 21, less than a year after being drafted. He was called up again in August, making 7 relief appearances, with only one clinker. Then he was moved to the rotation in September for 5 starts and only 1 clinker.

 

Kevin Gausman was drafted the year after Meyer and made his debut last May at age 22. Starting didn't go so well, but he became a very effective reliever in 15 appearances.

 

Is there any reason not to pursue a similar strategy with Meyer? Move Diamond or Worley when the time is right, the Twins should have all of Spring Training and at least the first couple months of the season to get this done. It may turn out that "losing them for nothing" means that's all that they are worth.

[johnnydakota]

They broke camp with Aaron Hicks on the roster just last season. I'd say that service time matters less to the Twins than it does many other teams, much to my chagrin.

 

Except that we had no one else , unless you think of Antoan Richardson ....

[Guest wabene]

Shoulder soreness is not a malady or disease. Shoulder soreness that last months is a symptom of a condition. What Alex Meyer has is an medical condition that the Twins were unable diagnose to treat with any precision that magically went away after 2+ months of inactivity.

 

Huh? What did you hear? I thought they did the diagnosis and the resulting treatment was rest. Although I never did hear a diagnosis.

 

"Of course service time means a great deal. If he does come up he apparently has the stuff to be the staff ace. That's why if they are within shouting distance of contention that is when he should be brought up. If they are contending and Meyer is doing well then I would not be as content to let him stay in the minors."

 

Yes thank you. If you are in contention take your best shot with your biggest guns even if they aren't broken in.

[Thrylos]

Has Meyer been invited to training camp? I assume he has but have not been able to confirm anywhere.

 

I assume that you mean "Major League" Training camp. Yes. A non-roster invitee.

[jokin]

Huh? What did you hear? I thought they did the diagnosis and the resulting treatment was rest. Although I never did hear a diagnosis.

 

"Of course service time means a great deal. If he does come up he apparently has the stuff to be the staff ace.

 

That's why if they are within shouting distance of contention that is when he should be brought up.

 

If they are contending and Meyer is doing well then I would not be as content to let him stay in the minors."

 

Yes thank you. If you are in contention take your best shot with your biggest guns even if they aren't broken in.

 

But that begs the question the other way and is challengeable from one line of logic- how do you get to be a contender, if your best players that are your main best hope in becoming contenders are being purposely held back from being "broken in?"

 

What if the Twins aren't within shouting dstance of being contenders in 2014, or then yet again, in 2015? Would you be willing to wait to call up a guy who "apprently has the stuff to be the staff ace" until 2016?

[Dantes929]

"What if the Twins aren't within shouting dstance of being contenders in 2014, or then yet again, in 2015? Would you be willing to wait to call up a guy who "apprently has the stuff to be the staff ace" until 2016? " The original post I was responding to said if the Twins are contending then he was content if he stays in the minors. I disagreed with that sentiment. I have no problem with Meyer coming up right off the bat. I also have no problem in him working on what he has to work on at the minor league level and earn his way up and it is a bonus if we get an extra year under control. We all expect to see him in 2014. He did well in AA but only 70 innings. I am ok with him proving himself at AAA before the call up. No one is suggesting that if he is 1.5 ERA in AAA that we hold him back til 2016 or even 2015.

[jokin]

"What if the Twins aren't within shouting dstance of being contenders in 2014, or then yet again, in 2015? Would you be willing to wait to call up a guy who "apprently has the stuff to be the staff ace" until 2016? " The original post I was responding to said if the Twins are contending then he was content if he stays in the minors. I disagreed with that sentiment. I have no problem with Meyer coming up right off the bat. I also have no problem in him working on what he has to work on at the minor league level and earn his way up and it is a bonus if we get an extra year under control. We all expect to see him in 2014. He did well in AA but only 70 innings. I am ok with him proving himself at AAA before the call up. No one is suggesting that if he is 1.5 ERA in AAA that we hold him back til 2016 or even 2015.

 

 

But what about if his ERA is closer to 3.50 with good underlying peripherals? Of late, the club has been a big proponent of "mastering" a level before promotion. What about on the closer calls? Other clubs have no problem ignoring minor league stats if they're sold on a guy's big league potential.

[Oldgoat_MN]

The rarest and most coveted type of prospect in the Minnesota Twins' system has been the hard-throwing, dominant starting pitcher.

 

I don't think that this type of pitcher was particularly 'coveted' by the Twins. For years they attached more importance to a pitcher's height than to his SO/9 (or SO%, if you prefer). I believe they only recently have started to value the strikeout, and not a moment too soon.