Article: Did Terry Ryan Act Too Aggressively in Free Agency?

[IronMonkee]

TR had never really actively participated in the FA market before. I guess that gets interpreted as indefinite waiting!

 

That's simply incorrect. He's never participated in the top of the market, but he picked up a whole bunch of FA crap in his first go as GM. And it was always right away, we didn't get Livan Hernandez and Rondell White before spring training.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Twinsfan34,

 

Milwaukee was a 76 pythag win team last year, versus the Twins 61 pythag wins. That is a 15 win difference.

 

Perhaps +20 was too generous, but they will be getting Braun back, hopefully Aramis Ramirez too, and they signed Garza and Reynolds to fill their 2 biggest remaining holes.

 

Still, 15 wins can be the difference between contending and not, and it is still a big gap for the Twins to overcome (or reverse, as an earlier post suggested) in just 3 years.

[Otto von Ballpark]

That's simply incorrect. He's never participated in the top of the market, but he picked up a whole bunch of FA crap in his first go as GM. And it was always right away, we didn't get Livan Hernandez and Rondell White before spring training.

 

Livan was a Bill Smith signing, and I am pretty sure he was a January signing....

 

And in 15 years, when the rotting shell of Rondell White is one of your most notable free agent signings, no, I do not think one has honestly participated in the free agent market.

[pierre75275]

Terry Ryan didn't act too aggressively signing Nolasco. A fair comp to that would be the signing of Johnny Peralta of the Cards and the ongoing saga of Stephen Drew

[Zarathustra]

I'd classify Ryan's actions as decisive rather than aggressive.

 

This is the best way to put it. Well done.

 

To those that would, with the benefit of hindsight, like to have played the market more I would ask, Have you ever been in a hyper-competitive housing market looking to purchase a house? At a point, once you see a house you like, you disregard (to a degree) the asking price, you disregard what else is on the market or may come on the market in the future, and you move decisively within your budget.

 

After the dust settles, you may or may not have overpaid relative to the market, but it doesn't change what you now have, and if it suits your needs, you should be content. The prices (and this includes opportunity costs) are only going up in the long run while you wait.

 

The Twins had a significant need. They had a healthy budget to fill that need. That need was filled by these signings. Let's move on with the business of contending.

[twinsfan34]

Twinsfan34,

 

Milwaukee was a 76 pythag win team last year, versus the Twins 61 pythag wins. That is a 15 win difference.

 

Perhaps +20 was too generous, but they will be getting Braun back, hopefully Aramis Ramirez too, and they signed Garza and Reynolds to fill their 2 biggest remaining holes.

 

Still, 15 wins can be the difference between contending and not, and it is still a big gap for the Twins to overcome (or reverse, as an earlier post suggested) in just 3 years.

 

Pythagorean W-L - isn't too bad when looking at one team. But when you compare individual teams against each other, it's not that accurate. The average error was 3 games per team. It also doesn't factor well for extremes. If you compare the Phillies, Astros, Yankees, Tigers, Pirates, Cubs or Rays you'll be anywhere from 11-13 Wins off. That's almost 25% of the MLB teams. So 1 in 4 teams, you'll be off by as many as 11-13 wins in any given season +/- the outliers of high scoring lobsided results of any given team season.

 

That said, I don't see the Brewers getting much better this year, and other the NL Central teams will likely be better. Garza didn't help the Rangers at all - I don't see him helping the Brewers much (if at all) either. He's a 2 WAR pitcher.

 

The Twins were bad...really bad. They'll still be bad this year. But they'll get better. The Brewers have to sign at least a 5+ WAR OF (another Braun ) and at least a 3+ WAR 3B (young Aramis Ramirez) to combat Buxton/Sano (estimate for 2016 seasons).

 

How many other Twins Minor Leaguers arrive in the pros and are contributors after 2 more full minor league seasons...

 

Hicks and Arcia will have become what they will be by then.

 

Meyer, Gibson...will have panned out one way or another.

 

Rosario, Santana, Polanco, and Kepler will also likely have been decided as well.

 

Then there's the '2nd tier' guys...Vargas, Harrison, Walker, Jones, etc. Probably sill ranked higher or on par with the top Brewers prospects except they're closer to the pros than their prospects.

 

You can't say the same thing about the Brewers concerning optimism.

 

By any publication I can find the Brewers don't have a top prospect in the top 150-ish. And have about 3-4 guys who are 18/19 years old who may be able to make a debut come 2016, but they only project at most as 55-60 grade (average player).

 

Jean Segura was a great trade for them (4WAR). Gomez, blossomed into an 8 WAR player. I don't think anyone can expect anything more from Gomez, Seguar may get 1-2 more WINS.

 

(shrugs)

[oldguy10]

^^^ Hmm, an assumption made by you that Sano and Buxton will be automatic contributors in 2016. Hopefully so but not a sure thing by quite a long shot I'd say. While just about everyone assumes they will be super stars that may never translate either. Let's take it all one step at a time please.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Pythagorean W-L - isn't too bad when looking at one team. But when you compare individual teams against each other, it's not that accurate. The average error was 3 games per team. It also doesn't factor well for extremes. If you compare the Phillies, Astros, Yankees, Tigers, Pirates, Cubs or Rays you'll be anywhere from 11-13 Wins off. That's almost 25% of the MLB teams. So 1 in 4 teams, you'll be off by as many as 11-13 wins in any given season +/- the outliers of high scoring lobsided results of any given team season.

 

That said, I don't see the Brewers getting much better this year, and other the NL Central teams will likely be better. Garza didn't help the Rangers at all - I don't see him helping the Brewers much (if at all) either. He's a 2 WAR pitcher.

 

The Twins were bad...really bad. They'll still be bad this year. But they'll get better. The Brewers have to sign at least a 5+ WAR OF (another Braun ) and at least a 3+ WAR 3B (young Aramis Ramirez) to combat Buxton/Sano (estimate for 2016 seasons).

 

How many other Twins Minor Leaguers arrive in the pros and are contributors after 2 more full minor league seasons...

 

Hicks and Arcia will have become what they will be by then.

 

Meyer, Gibson...will have panned out one way or another.

 

Rosario, Santana, Polanco, and Kepler will also likely have been decided as well.

 

Then there's the '2nd tier' guys...Vargas, Harrison, Walker, Jones, etc. Probably sill ranked higher or on par with the top Brewers prospects except they're closer to the pros than their prospects.

 

You can't say the same thing about the Brewers concerning optimism.

 

By any publication I can find the Brewers don't have a top prospect in the top 150-ish. And have about 3-4 guys who are 18/19 years old who may be able to make a debut come 2016, but they only project at most as 55-60 grade (average player).

 

Jean Segura was a great trade for them (4WAR). Gomez, blossomed into an 8 WAR player. I don't think anyone can expect anything more from Gomez, Seguar may get 1-2 more WINS.

 

(shrugs)

 

Again, it's not all about prospects, though. The Brewers are starting with a much higher MLB talent base. Braun, Gomez, Segura, Lucroy, plus a few other position players, and Lohse, Garza, and Gallardo could easily be better than any Twins starting pitcher.

 

Your Twins 2016 value list is basically 100% prospects right now, most of whom haven't appeared above AA yet. And most of them, as much as we might like them, aren't elite. "Rosario, Santana, Polanco, and Kepler"? Realistically, we might be lucky to get one MLB regular out of that group. The outlook might be worse for the guys you actually label "2nd tier".

 

I'm not saying the Brewers are going to win the World Series or even their division, and they do need to shore up their minor leagues, but they have actual MLB-level evidence that they should compete, in 2014, 2015, and even 2016. Can't yet say the same for the Twins.

[twinsfan34]

^^^ Hmm, an assumption made by you that Sano and Buxton will be automatic contributors in 2016. Hopefully so but not a sure thing by quite a long shot I'd say. While just about everyone assumes they will be super stars that may never translate either. Let's take it all one step at a time please.

 

Well...honestly, I was just going by the averages. I don't even think that's optimism

 

A little bit of 'Did you know?'

 

Since 1990 Baseball America has been ranking prospects and since then they've had 18 position players ranked #1. Joe Mauer and Bryce Harper were ranked #1 twice.

 

Of those 18 position players, all but two made the big leagues that same year. The two? Josh Hamilton, who had a car accident and a sever back injury that kept him from making the pros. And the other was Bryce Harper, who was only 18.

 

By the 3rd season after being ranked #1 only three players did not have a season with a WAR > 4. Jurickson Profar has two more seasons (2014, 2015) to try to get that WAR above 5. I wanna say he does. Cliff Floyd was another, he had injuries and never saw more than 116g in any one season. The last? Delmon Young. He had 0.9 his rookie yer and wouldn't get higher than than the following 2 years.

 

So to put that in perspective. Byron Buxton is ranked #1 for 2014, his '3rd season' would be 2016. The average high season by a #1 ranked prospect by his 3rd season? 5.4 WAR. That includes the injury shortened years of Cliff Floyd and the incomprable Delmon Young. Take those guys out, the average WAR is 6.0.

 

13 players had a 5 WAR or better by their 3rd season following being ranked #1. That's 72% of the players had a WAR above 5 by the season I predicted Nolasco would be better off than Garza.

 

If you want to speculate on Byron Buxton and 2014, try this.

Of the 18 ranked #1, nine broke with the team in Spring Training. All but two of the 18 played in the big leagues the year they were ranked #1. That was an 18 year old by the name of Bryce Harper and the injured/drug suspended Josh Hamilton being the two. But that's 89%. So historically, about a 90% change Buxton makes his debut by September 2014.

 

Injuries aside, only Delmon Young, Ben Grieve (4.1 WAR), Cliff Floyd (injuries), Jay Bruce (4.8 WAR), and Jurickson Profar (has 2 years on his timeclock yet) have yet to get a 5 WAR season by year three after being ranked #1. So really, only 4 of 17 guys who've played out their 3 years did not get a 5 WAR season. The number #1 prospect thus has a success rate of 76% to get a 5 WAR year by year 3.

 

Optimism? Meh, I think it's just going with the flow of averages.

 

Then there's the players who are teenagers and had an OPS higher than Buxton at A+. Only Jesus Montero has struggled out of that bunch.

 

I should probably just write an article and put it all together. Just been too lazy, honestly.

 

It's just the history, any one data point (or player) can defy history and history still have a fairly good correlation.

 

But not many of those #1 prospects by BA were consensus #1. It's hard to find consensus before 1990 as there weren't publications on record. But after that, position players, you have a few. Chipper Jones, Alex Rodriguez, Joe Mauer, and Byron Buxton.

 

Pretty solid company, and baring steroids for A-Rod, and well, Mauer at least maintaining his current production for another 3-5 years - all would be HOFers.

 

That's not optimism. Just saying it how it is.

 

I personally don't quite buy into the peak of 25-30 HR potential that many scouts and prospect gurus (Parks at Prospectus, Callis at MLB) say Buxton has. I'd expect the 15-22 HR range.

 

I found it amazing that the guy who's going to hit .280 with 25 HR at a premium position (SS) and win ROY in the AL this year wasn't even in consideration for #1 prospect in baseball (Xander Boegarts) among any of the publications.

 

That's absurd to me - just as bad as optimism if you ask me.

[oldguy10]

Isn't that another huge assumption about Boegarts? Let's see if he does indeed hit .280 with 25 HR when the season is over.

[Brandon]

The Twins have put themselves in position to decide if signing Cruz and Drew would be enough to put them into contention this year. If they decide the answer is yes they may still go after them and possibly one of the other remaining pitchers as the Twins can always trade starters for the prospects they will loose in the draft.

 

If the Twins decide to sit it out and they have a better record next year and in a weaker draft they may decide to go after 1 of the 3-5 SS on the market then (after the Yankees sign Jeter's replacement of course) There will also be other hitters available should we want one too. I'm fine either way as long as next offseason we continue to improve.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Seemed like the best thread for this news:

 

Orioles sign Ubaldo Jimenez, 4 years, $50 million

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/02/orioles-to-sign-ubaldo-jimenez.html

 

On lower-end depth guys:

 

The Orioles also recently signed Suk-Min Yoon for 3 years, ~$5.5 mil guaranteed (plus up to $8 mil in total incentives).

 

Elsewhere, the Dodgers signed Paul Maholm for 1 year, $1.5 mil plus $5 mil incentives, and Erik Bedard just signed a minor league deal with Tampa.

[70charger]

Well...honestly, I was just going by the averages. I don't even think that's optimism

 

A little bit of 'Did you know?'

 

Wow. You win this topic.