Article: TD Top Prospects: #8 Jorge Polanco

[jay]

I hope you are right about dozier. But his ops in the minors was .779 and he was one of the oldest at every level. His ops in the big leagues is .680. And if he was over .800 this year he would have been 5th among 2b and potentially an all star. Seems rosy.

 

What he hasn't done is struggle at the same level repeatedly. He was continually challenged, despite being on the slightly older end of the prospect age scale, and responded. I think you're losing that context by simply referring to overall numbers or "bad" years.

 

In 2010, moved up from rookie ball to play 39 games at single-A with marginal results. Quickly pushed to high-A and continued that. In 2011, he started back in high-A and did well quickly, continuing that trend at AA. In 2012, he jumped to the majors and might not have been ready leading to struggles at both AAA and MLB. In 2013, he adjusted to MLB early in the year and did well.

 

I'll buy the inconsistency argument more if he has a significantly sub-par year in 2014, but as is, I think you can contribute a fair amount of that track record to adjusting to new levels.

[Seth Stohs]

I hope you are right about dozier. But his ops in the minors was .779 and he was one of the oldest at every level. His ops in the big leagues is .680. And if he was over .800 this year he would have been 5th among 2b and potentially an all star. Seems rosy.

 

People make way too big of a deal about the age... He went to college for four years... Obviously he's going to be a little older... but he also made his big league debut when he was 24 years old, which certainly isn't old. He had a broken collarbone his senior season, so they Twins kept him in the GCL and got him back into it a bit. He spent less than half season in Beloit. About a season in Ft. Myers, and a half-season in New Britain. That's moving very quickly. He then played about 15-18 games at AAA before coming up.

 

I couldn't care less about his numbers in the GCL. He showed his skill set in 2011. He certainly struggled mightily in his big league debut.. not unusual. He started slow last year... but he made those mechanical changes in late May and was pretty solid after that. I'm not saying he's going to be a perennial All Star. I think the .720-.780 range is very realistic, certainly not excessive... And, if I think he can be in that range, there's no reason to believe that he couldn't have a year or two that jump into the .800 range. That's not a big stretch.

[Jim H]

Goodrum is more of a Florimon-type defender. Good range but occasionally erratic and a very strong arm. The more I see him play the more I think that he will follow in the Cuddyer/Plouffe footsteps (if he starts to hit). And that might happen, but right now Goodrum is as much a prospect as Levi Michael is, because of the bat (or lack of...) Still young, but he's got to produce one of these days.

 

I haven't seen Goodrum play, but if he is a Florimon type defender at short, that is pretty good. Cuddyer and Plouffe were never that good defensively, really anywhere, but certainly not at short. Cuddyer was up and down offensively in the minors, but largely he was pretty good offensively, his bat is what got him to the majors. Plouffe managed to stay at short till he got to the majors, but his bat was very inconsistent, he really hasn't shown yet that his bat will be consistent enough for him to be an everyday player at either corner infielder or corner outfielder.

 

I believe Goodrum is one of those toolsy type players, who could develop into a good hitter but like a Benson, might not. The thing he has going for him is he can play defense and if he can stay at shortstop(doesn't outgrow the position) he has a very good chance of being a big league regular.

[cmathewson]

Let's take a step back. It seems like you are casually tossing aside a lot of data.

 

Rookie League - he was a 22 year old, four year college guy who posted an OPS of .837. That is not impressive in the least bit. You have some 16 and 17 year olds in this league, most are 19-20 or under.

 

2010 - a .700 OPS is not anywhere near impressive for a 23 year old in low and high a. He is four years ahead of Polanco, who had an OPS of .813.

 

2011 - His numbers were excellent, but in A+/AA as a 24 year old. you have to discount it a bit.

 

2012 - Awful

 

2013 - .609 OPS in April, .513 OPS in May, .678 in September. June-August he was very good.

 

It seems like he is 50/50 at any given time. We had a lack of successes last year and as a result, we are clinging to the year Dozier had without looking at how streaky he has been and how over the last 2 years, the guy has been bad in 8 of the 12 months and good in 3 (so so in 9/2013).

 

 

There are no 16 year olds in the Appy league. It's an advanced rookie league with an average age of 21. It's primarily for college guys coming off a long college season. There's a handful of teenagers on every team, but they're the exception to the rule.

 

You base much of your discounting on stuff outside of his control. The Twins have only sent two infielders to A ball out of college in the last 20 years (Knoblauch and Michaels). They typically send you to the Appy league and make you earn your way up. That's what Dozier has done. With the exception of 2012, when he was given the Aaron Hicks treatment and struggled in similar ways, he has earned his way at every level.

 

It's way too early to give up on him, as you seem determined to do. I'm with Brock. Once he learned the MLB strike zone, he took off. I think he turned a corner. He might regress from his lofty September. But something like the average of June through September is a reasonable projection.

[tobi0040]

There are no 16 year olds in the Appy league. It's an advanced rookie league with an average age of 21. It's primarily for college guys coming off a long college season. There's a handful of teenagers on every team, but they're the exception to the rule.

 

You base much of your discounting on stuff outside of his control. The Twins have only sent two infielders to A ball out of college in the last 20 years (Knoblauch and Michaels). They typically send you to the Appy league and make you earn your way up. That's what Dozier has done. With the exception of 2012, when he was given the Aaron Hicks treatment and struggled in similar ways, he has earned his way at every level.

 

It's way too early to give up on him, as you seem determined to do. I'm with Brock. Once he learned the MLB strike zone, he took off. I think he turned a corner. He might regress from his lofty September. But something like the average of June through September is a reasonable projection.

 

I was off a little on the Appy average age, but you had Sano at 18, Rosario at 19, Thorpe will be 18, and Deolis Guerra was actually in low A as a 17 year old.

 

Either way, I was not trying to write off Dozier. I think he can be an above average 2B, I am just not ready to pencil him as a guy that will average a .750 OPS and approach .800 in some years, which makes him a potential all-star.

That seems to be the consensus on the site. I am not ready to just forget his 540 at bats in 2012 as well as April and May of 2013.

 

I initially responded to the notion that Polanco's path may not be too difficult. I don't see Rosario sticking at 2B and if Dozier is just an average 2B and is starting to get expensive, I could see Dozier being traded to another team because we would have Polanco who is cheaper.