Article: TD Top Prospects: #8 Jorge Polanco

[Nick Nelson]

You can view the page at http://www.twinsdaily.com/content.php/2654-TD-Top-Prospects-8-Jorge-Polanco

[diehardtwinsfan]

I like him better if he can be a SS. I think he's a bit high on the ranking right now as a 2B... We will see. I hear he's going to be a primary SS this season.

[Dantes929]

Am hoping Dozier ups his batting average by 30 or so points which would make him above average for a middle infielder. Any chance of him moving back to shortstop in the future? Log jam wouldn't be a bad thing. If Rosario makes it he can always move to outfield and move Arcia to DH if necessary. Defensive outfield of Rosario, Hicks and Buxton would be elite. If Hicks doesn't make it then more rooms still for Rosario.

[tobi0040]

I don't think his path is that difficult as a 2B. From what I understand, the Twins are not very high on Rosario sticking at 2B.

 

Dozier seems to be over-rated by the Twins community. 18 HR and 66 RBI is good, but we are talking about a career .240 hitter with an OBP under .300, .682 OPS. These are not anywhere near all-star numbers. In the context of Polanco, if he pushes for an MLB role in two years and Dozier is sticking, Terry could flip Dozier and replace him with Polanco making $500K.

[ericchri]

Yep, reports about his defense at SS this year will be extremely interesting, assuming that comment from TR about him staying at SS this year holds true. Even if he ends up at 2B, we're going to get something decent back in return for one of Dozier, Rosario, or Polanco eventually at the very least, you would think.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I don't think his path is that difficult as a 2B. From what I understand, the Twins are not very high on Rosario sticking at 2B.

 

Dozier seems to be over-rated by the Twins community. 18 HR and 66 RBI is good, but we are talking about a career .240 hitter with an OBP under .300, .682 OPS. These are not anywhere near all-star numbers. In the context of Polanco, if he pushes for an MLB role in two years and Dozier is sticking, Terry could flip Dozier and replace him with Polanco making $500K.

 

Looking at Dozier's career numbers are misleading, not to mention that RBI are completely irrelevant.

 

Some time in May last season, Dozier worked with Bruno and changed his swing mechanics. After that point, he was an .800 OPS guy. If he comes back in 2014 anything like the hitter he was in the last four months of 2013, he's a very, very good second basemen.

 

Or he could fall on his face. But given the consistent improvement he showed after May of 2013, I think we're looking at a different Brian Dozier, though I'm skeptical that his power numbers will remain where they were in 2013.

[tobi0040]

Looking at Dozier's career numbers are misleading, not to mention that RBI are completely irrelevant.

 

Some time in May last season, Dozier worked with Bruno and changed his swing mechanics. After that point, he was an .800 OPS guy. If he comes back in 2014 anything like the hitter he was in the last four months of 2013, he's a very, very good second basemen.

 

Or he could fall on his face. But given the consistent improvement he showed after May of 2013, I think we're looking at a different Brian Dozier, though I'm skeptical that his power numbers will remain where they were in 2013.

 

I am looking at 900 at bats over 2 years, you are effectively cherry picking 297 at bats from June to August (His .678 OPS in 107 September at bats does not fit your thesis of a different Dozier).

 

Look at Trevor Plouffe, he has gone on better streaks than Dozier for longer periods of time. In May and June of 2013 he had an OPS of .842 abd .879. His OPS in the entire first half of 2012 was .871.

 

If you buy June on as the new normal for Dozier, his OPS was .786. Definitely a very good 2B. I am not ready to throw out the other 500 at bats and his minor league career. Outside of a good 2011 at A+ and AA, he was not impressive in 2010 or 2012

[Cris E]

I'm still wondering if Rosario sticks at 2b after missing 50 games. There's a very real chance that a fast start by Polanco puts them both at 2B in CR in July, and if Eddie doesn't come out playing well he might not get first pick of the available innings. The organization could take a hard look at things and let Rosario's bat develop in LF and Polanco at 2B and be done with the discussion this summer.

[Jim Crikket]

I kind of look at Polanco and the shortstop position the way I do some of the pitchers the Twins have been using as starters despite the fact that they are likely to end up in the bullpen. I may believe Polanco's likely position at the highest level will be 2B, but as long as I think he has a puncher's chance of sticking at SS, I'd keep sending him out there in the minors. Could his arm get stronger as his body develops more? Maybe, maybe not. But you lose nothing by continuing to give him innings out there. You can continue giving him innings at 2B, as well, and if that's where he ends up, so be it. With middle infielders, you just know there are going to be seasons when they're going to be needed at both middle positions.

[Kwak]

If Polanco is functional defensively at SS I believe he will stay there given the dearth of "hitting" SSs in the organization.

[Dantes929]

"am looking at 900 at bats over 2 years, you are effectively cherry picking 297 at bats" "If you buy June on as the new normal for Dozier, his OPS was .786. Definitely a very good 2B. I am not ready to throw out the other 500 at bats and his minor league career. Outside of a good 2011 at A+ and AA, he was not impressive in 2010 or 2012 " Aren't you cherry picking his minor league numbers? His 2012 numbers were just for 181 at bats. His minor league numbers are quite good. .298 avg and .370 OBP and I believe his fall league numbers were great as well. He improved from 2012 to 2013 at the major league level and I think he has a fair chance of improving in 2014. No one has a crystal ball but I think some optimism is justified.

[tobi0040]

I kind of look at Polanco and the shortstop position the way I do some of the pitchers the Twins have been using as starters despite the fact that they are likely to end up in the bullpen. I may believe Polanco's likely position at the highest level will be 2B, but as long as I think he has a puncher's chance of sticking at SS, I'd keep sending him out there in the minors. Could his arm get stronger as his body develops more? Maybe, maybe not. But you lose nothing by continuing to give him innings out there. You can continue giving him innings at 2B, as well, and if that's where he ends up, so be it. With middle infielders, you just know there are going to be seasons when they're going to be needed at both middle positions.

 

the other thing that would be nice to see is analysis around how many runs a year you are losing with a weaker armed SS that can hit, versus a guy like Florimon. It seems like it is a hard and fast "this guy does not have the arm for SS", but we are then OK with Florimon hitting .220.

 

If you assume Polanco to be a:

 

.280 hitter with a .740 OPS, 45 extra base hits a year, with 50-60 BB.

 

Polanco and Florimon field at the same clip, but Polanco fails to throw out 15 guys that Florimon would throw out.....

 

You would think you could model this out and make a strong case that on balance, Polanco would be a better SS. Over 600 at bats, you are getting 36 more hits, 20-25 more extra base hits, and you are on base another 45-50 times.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I am looking at 900 at bats over 2 years, you are effectively cherry picking 297 at bats from June to August (His .678 OPS in 107 September at bats does not fit your thesis of a different Dozier).

 

Look at Trevor Plouffe, he has gone on better streaks than Dozier for longer periods of time. In May and June of 2013 he had an OPS of .842 abd .879. His OPS in the entire first half of 2012 was .871.

 

If you buy June on as the new normal for Dozier, his OPS was .786. Definitely a very good 2B. I am not ready to throw out the other 500 at bats and his minor league career. Outside of a good 2011 at A+ and AA, he was not impressive in 2010 or 2012

 

Unlike Plouffe, you can draw a line in the sand the day Dozier changed his mechanics with Bruno. After that day, he was a different player for the rest of the season (and a .678 OPS over a month doesn't change that, that's still way above Dozier's 2012 and early 2013 numbers). Dozier didn't get hot for a couple of months and hit a ton of homers like Plouffe. He started taking more pitches, he started walking more, he started striking out less.

 

Does that mean Dozier is going to remain the player he was post-May of last season? No, absolutely not. But it means he has a better chance of remaining a very good player because everything about him changed as a hitter and maybe even more importantly, he looked like the player he was in the minor leagues. That didn't happen with Plouffe... Trevor just started hitting a bunch of homers and once those homers dried up, he was back to being a marginal player.

 

With that said, I believe Dozier's power numbers will decline this year. But given how he's walking more, taking more pitches, and putting more wood on the ball when he does swing, that's a much better indication that his change is for real and not the result of getting lucky on a handful of bad pitches over a two month stretch.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I'm still wondering if Rosario sticks at 2b after missing 50 games. There's a very real chance that a fast start by Polanco puts them both at 2B in CR in July, and if Eddie doesn't come out playing well he might not get first pick of the available innings. The organization could take a hard look at things and let Rosario's bat develop in LF and Polanco at 2B and be done with the discussion this summer.

 

They aren't demoting Rosario 2 levels He will likely start in AA or AAA depending on several factors I'm sure.

 

That, and given what we keep reading about Rosario, the doubters about him sticking at 2nd are fewer and fewer.

[tobi0040]

Unlike Plouffe, you can draw a line in the sand the day Dozier changed his mechanics with Bruno. After that day, he was a different player for the rest of the season (and a .678 OPS over a month doesn't change that, that's still way above Dozier's 2012 and early 2013 numbers). Dozier didn't get hot for a couple of months and hit a ton of homers like Plouffe. He started taking more pitches, he started walking more, he started striking out less.

 

Does that mean Dozier is going to remain the player he was post-May of last season? No, absolutely not. But it means he has a better chance of remaining a very good player because everything about him changed as a hitter and maybe even more importantly, he looked like the player he was in the minor leagues. That didn't happen with Plouffe... Trevor just started hitting a bunch of homers and once those homers dried up, he was back to being a marginal player.

 

With that said, I believe Dozier's power numbers will decline this year. But given how he's walking more, taking more pitches, and putting more wood on the ball when he does swing, that's a much better indication that his change is for real and not the result of getting lucky on a handful of bad pitches over a two month stretch.

 

When you look at Dozier's history, you see he is streaky. So the risk is looking at 300 at bats in one year and throwing out the history. So I would advise a dash of caution on Dozier being a new player.

 

2009 – .837 OPS as a 22 year old in rookie league.

2010 - .700 OPS as a 23 year old at A/A+

2011 - .890 OPS as a 24 year old at A+/AA

2012 - .623 OPS as a 25 year old at AAA, .603 OPS as a 25 year old in MLB

2013 - .726 OPS as a 26 year old in MLB

 

I hope he is a new player, but I would not be surprised if he continue to be up and down.

[halfchest]

When you look at Dozier's history, you see he is streaky. So the risk is looking at 300 at bats in one year and throwing out the history. So I would advise a dash of caution on Dozier being a new player.

 

2009 – .837 OPS as a 22 year old in rookie league.

2010 - .700 OPS as a 23 year old at A/A+

2011 - .890 OPS as a 24 year old at A+/AA

2012 - .623 OPS as a 25 year old at AAA, .603 OPS as a 25 year old in MLB

2013 - .726 OPS as a 26 year old in MLB

 

I hope he is a new player, but I would not be surprised if he continue to be up and down.

 

Good points for sure. Is he an all star? No, will he ever be? Doubtful. However even if he's somewhere in between these numbers say he can be around a .700 OPS guy with plus defense at 2B there's a lot of value in that. I think his floor is a .650 OPS guy with plus defense at 2B maybe transitioning to a utility guy if he never gets above that. His ceiling though is that guy we saw from June - September. My expectation is around a .750 OPS which is great for a good defensive 2B.

[Brock Beauchamp]

When you look at Dozier's history, you see he is streaky. So the risk is looking at 300 at bats in one year and throwing out the history. So I would advise a dash of caution on Dozier being a new player.

 

2009 – .837 OPS as a 22 year old in rookie league.

2010 - .700 OPS as a 23 year old at A/A+

2011 - .890 OPS as a 24 year old at A+/AA

2012 - .623 OPS as a 25 year old at AAA, .603 OPS as a 25 year old in MLB

2013 - .726 OPS as a 26 year old in MLB

 

I hope he is a new player, but I would not be surprised if he continue to be up and down.

 

A bit streaky for sure but if you remove what seems to be a lost 2012 for Dozier, all those OPSes are .700 or better.

 

Basically, his floor should be a lot higher than what we saw in 2012, where he struggled at multiple levels. If you look at his OBP minus BA, every level and every year, Dozier has posted .070 to .090 isolated discipline... Except for 2012 and the beginning of 2013, where he was more around .040-.050.

 

Now that he posted another season of .070 iso discipline in 2013, that makes 2012 look like the aberration, not the other way around.

 

Naturally, this doesn't "prove" anything but players who take pitches and walk tend to maintain some level of success, as it shows that they are identifying pitches and laying off those they cannot hit.

[Steve Penz]

I am confused by any ideas that he will be a shortstop. I know he has split time but this does not seem like reality. Based on how it has worked with others, players don't develop the arm for the SS/3b positions. Either you have it or not. I am sure there are some exceptions but generally speaking, when do you see this happen? If he had a shortstop arm then he would be there now. The team would not be messing around with that. I think it would be a miracle if he became more than a 2b.

[tobi0040]

A bit streaky for sure but if you remove what seems to be a lost 2012 for Dozier, all those OPSes are .700 or better.

 

Basically, his floor should be a lot higher than what we saw in 2012, where he struggled at multiple levels. If you look at his OBP minus BA, every level and every year, Dozier has posted .070 to .090 isolated discipline... Except for 2012 and the beginning of 2013, where he was more around .040-.050.

 

Now that he posted another season of .070 iso discipline in 2013, that makes 2012 look like the aberration, not the other way around.

 

Naturally, this doesn't "prove" anything but players who take pitches and walk tend to maintain some level of success, as it shows that they are identifying pitches and laying off those they cannot hit.

 

Let's take a step back. It seems like you are casually tossing aside a lot of data.

 

Rookie League - he was a 22 year old, four year college guy who posted an OPS of .837. That is not impressive in the least bit. You have some 16 and 17 year olds in this league, most are 19-20 or under.

 

2010 - a .700 OPS is not anywhere near impressive for a 23 year old in low and high a. He is four years ahead of Polanco, who had an OPS of .813.

 

2011 - His numbers were excellent, but in A+/AA as a 24 year old. you have to discount it a bit.

 

2012 - Awful

 

2013 - .609 OPS in April, .513 OPS in May, .678 in September. June-August he was very good.

 

It seems like he is 50/50 at any given time. We had a lack of successes last year and as a result, we are clinging to the year Dozier had without looking at how streaky he has been and how over the last 2 years, the guy has been bad in 8 of the 12 months and good in 3 (so so in 9/2013).

[Dantes929]

"If he had a shortstop arm then he would be there now. The team would not be messing around with that. I think it would be a miracle if he became more than a 2b." I assume you are back to talking about Polanco right now. My response is that if he didn't have close to what is considered a shortstop arm then indeed they wouldn't be messing around with it so I doubt it is a Revere type arm. Punto had a 2nd baseman arm overcame it with quick routes to the ball and a quick release. He was average at short and very good at 3rd base. I agree with a poster above that if Polanco can be an average shortstop defensively and a good hitter (forget about power, can he get on base) that is better than a good fielder and below average hitter like Florimon. I have no idea if he can stick at shortstop but the Twins want to see more of him there. If it was so obvious that he could not play there then they would have cut bait on the idea a while ago so turn your sentence around. If he did not have a shortstop arm the team would not be messing with that. Easy to imagine someone writing off Omar Visquel at age 18 for not having a shortstop arm.

[jay]

Let's take a step back. It seems like you are casually tossing aside a lot of data.

 

Rookie League - he was a 22 year old, four year college guy who posted an OPS of .837. That is not impressive in the least bit. You have some 16 and 17 year olds in this league, most are 19-20 or under.

 

2010 - a .700 OPS is not anywhere near impressive for a 23 year old in low and high a. He is four years ahead of Polanco, who had an OPS of .813.

 

2011 - His numbers were excellent, but in A+/AA as a 24 year old. you have to discount it a bit.

 

2012 - Awful

 

2013 - .609 OPS in April, .513 OPS in May, .678 in September. June-August he was very good.

 

It seems like he is 50/50 at any given time. We had a lack of successes last year and as a result, we are clinging to the year Dozier had without looking at how streaky he has been and how over the last 2 years, the guy has been bad in 8 of the 12 months and good in 3 (so so in 9/2013).

 

A case can be made from both sides of the spectrum for Dozier. You've made the points on the floor side, but help me understand where you truly stand... how exactly do you foresee Dozier performing this year and even over the next few years?

[tobi0040]

A case can be made from both sides of the spectrum for Dozier. You've made the points on the floor side, but help me understand where you truly stand... how exactly do you foresee Dozier performing this year and even over the next few years?

 

I would guess his numbers will bounce around a bit from year to year and month to month, with a floor/ceiling in this range:

 

Average - .225-.260

HR/Year - 9-15

OBP - .290-.315

OPS - .640-740

 

I think this equates to about an average 2B. Circling back, in two years when Polanco is ready and Dozier is making $4M and running out of control I could see trading him and making room for the cheaper player. I can't pencil him in as the 2B for the next 10 years until he is more consistent from year to year and month to month.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I would guess his numbers will bounce around a bit from year to year and month to month, with a floor/ceiling in this range:

 

Average - .225-.260

HR/Year - 9-15

OBP - .290-.315

OPS - .640-730

 

I think this equates to about an average 2B. Circling back, in two years when Polanco is ready and Dozier is making $4M and running out of control I could see trading him and making room for the cheaper player. I can't pencil him in as the 2B for the next 10 years until he is more consistent from year to year and month to month.

 

We're really not that far apart when you get right down to it. My floor for Dozier is quite a bit higher with the caveat that if he's anywhere near your floor, he's out of baseball entirely within 24 months.

 

I think he'll be somewhere in the .710-.770 OPS range in 2014. Again, with the caveat that he's taking walks. I think Dozier's success entirely hinges on that isolated discipline being somewhere around .070, give or take 10 points.

 

If that isolated discipline drops to the .040-.050 range again, I think he's off the team within a year.

[Dantes929]

"My floor for Dozier is quite a bit higher with the caveat that if he's anywhere near your floor, he's out of baseball entirely within 24 months." That seems fairly reasonable. I agree with the floor but think his ceiling is a bit higher. In fact, I will be quite disappointed if his OBP doesn't get above .330 with .270 average. Minor league OBP was .370 so I don't think .330 should be out of the question and certainly he shouldn't be a leadoff hitter if he is below that.

[Thrylos]

I think that he stays as a SS as long as possible. His defense at SS has been improving every season. I do have to question the "weak arm" bit. His arm is not like Sano's but it is not weak by any means. I would call it "average". And there have been fine shortstops with average arms (e.g. Jeter) or even weak arms (e.g. Noarm Garciaparra) as long as they are accurate.

 

The one thing that might make him move to 2B is not his arm, but his bulkiness, if it cuts into his range. He has gained considerable muscle weight and he looks more like Jhonny Peralta (another aveage arm All Star SS, btw) than Alexei Ramirez these days, but people thought that Cal Ripken was too big to play SS once upon a time. If he is anything close to Peralta, Twins fans would be very happy (and at this point Polanco has better plate discipline, ever as an A league player than Peralta ever had or will have, so I think that his ceiling is a little higher than that...)

[Seth Stohs]

It'll be interesting to see what happens. I think Dozier is a guy who will OPS between .720 and .780 most years with the ability to get it over .800 a couple of times. That's pretty solid.

 

I think they keep Rosario at 2B this year, getting him a handful of games at Ft. Myers before he heads back to New Britain. I don't think he has much chance of sticking at 2B.

 

Polanco currently is not close to as good defensively at SS as Niko Goodrum. Aside from here and there, the only time that Polanco played SS was when Niko was out with the concussion or the groin injury. Polanco can play SS, and he should continue to get some time there. The bigger question is if Goodrum will get bigger and have to move to 3B or the OF or something. Goodrum hasn't shown it yet, but he does have potential to add a lot of strength and power in time.

[Thrylos]

Polanco currently is not close to as good defensively at SS as Niko Goodrum. Aside from here and there, the only time that Polanco played SS was when Niko was out with the concussion or the groin injury. Polanco can play SS, and he should continue to get some time there. The bigger question is if Goodrum will get bigger and have to move to 3B or the OF or something. Goodrum hasn't shown it yet, but he does have potential to add a lot of strength and power in time.

 

Goodrum is more of a Florimon-type defender. Good range but occasionally erratic and a very strong arm. The more I see him play the more I think that he will follow in the Cuddyer/Plouffe footsteps (if he starts to hit). And that might happen, but right now Goodrum is as much a prospect as Levi Michael is, because of the bat (or lack of...) Still young, but he's got to produce one of these days.

[tobi0040]

It'll be interesting to see what happens. I think Dozier is a guy who will OPS between .720 and .780 most years with the ability to get it over .800 a couple of times. That's pretty solid.

 

I think they keep Rosario at 2B this year, getting him a handful of games at Ft. Myers before he heads back to New Britain. I don't think he has much chance of sticking at 2B.

 

Polanco currently is not close to as good defensively at SS as Niko Goodrum. Aside from here and there, the only time that Polanco played SS was when Niko was out with the concussion or the groin injury. Polanco can play SS, and he should continue to get some time there. The bigger question is if Goodrum will get bigger and have to move to 3B or the OF or something. Goodrum hasn't shown it yet, but he does have potential to add a lot of strength and power in time.

 

I hope you are right about dozier. But his ops in the minors was .779 and he was one of the oldest at every level. His ops in the big leagues is .680. And if he was over .800 this year he would have been 5th among 2b and potentially an all star. Seems rosy.

[Madre Dos]

I have to admit I was surprised when he was put on the 40 man roster. Jorge is smart and can think on his feet. I am very happy for him. He was a fan favorite in Cedar Rapids "HIP -HIP - JORGE" when he would get a hit or make a great defensive play.

[jay]

He was a fan favorite in Cedar Rapids "HIP -HIP - JORGE" when he would get a hit or make a great defensive play.

 

That's pretty funny. Thank you for your contributions and insights, by the way.