Article: Aaron Hicks and Rebounding

[Brock Beauchamp]

Hicks began switch-hitting in high school.

[Dave T]

...His future is not in a corner outfield spot as he will likely never produce offensively enough to realize maximum value or highest and best use.

Offensively, I agree. I still think he has a chance to stick as a corner outfielder because of his superb defensive skills. The Twins signed three new starting pitchers (plus Pelfrey) who pitch to contact, and the Twins will need the best defense they can put on the field in order to keep opponents from scoring.

[savvyspy]

Hicks would be the best defensive outfielder on the roster right now and I would argue the 2nd best overall outfielder on the roster behind Arcia. So he had a bad half season. Its not like this team is stocked with offensive weapons. Cripes, Dozier hits .245 and people are calling him the next Joe Morgan. Give the kid a chance and he'll bounce back. I'll give you that he got off to a horrendous start but he was actually starting to stabilze when they sent him down. Its WAY too soon to cut bait with Hicks.

[JP3700]

I like this comp for accuracy and the insight behind it. But I'm not sure I'm encouraged that it's the right comp......

 

Shouldn't be discouraged. Chris Young was/is an above average baseball player. Perhaps he is in decline, but his last six years he's been worth 13.7 WAR. I'd take that kind of value out of Hicks.

[jay]

Shouldn't be discouraged. Chris Young was/is an above average baseball player. Perhaps he is in decline, but his last six years he's been worth 13.7 WAR. I'd take that kind of value out of Hicks.

 

Good comp in many ways, but I think even that might be shooting high. Similar timeline, but Young hit 32 homers in his age-23 season as a rookie compared to what Hicks did last year. Hicks will never have as much power, but might post some better OBPs in time. If he ends up pushed to a corner due to Buxton, it's hard to see Hicks' bat profiling well in a corner (despite some great D, I'm assuming). I'd be happy to see like 2/3 of that WAR total...

[JP3700]

Good comp in many ways, but I think even that might be shooting high. Similar timeline, but Young hit 32 homers in his age-23 season as a rookie compared to what Hicks did last year. Hicks will never have as much power, but might post some better OBPs in time. If he ends up pushed to a corner due to Buxton, it's hard to see Hicks' bat profiling well in a corner (despite some great D, I'm assuming). I'd be happy to see like 2/3 of that WAR total...

 

I agree that Young has more power. That's why I had Hicks' isoP at .160 in my projection compared to Young's .196 career isoP.

 

If that projection holds true, once you factor in park adjustment and run scoring environment, they'd come out to be similar players.

[jay]

What about De Aza as a comp? Similar age/level progression, similar early struggles, similar BB/K profiles. Hicks probably has a hint more power.

[Steve Penz]

He may rebound and have a nice career at CF but it will be on another team. Unfortunately for Hicks I feel his window is closing too quickly. Buxton could move up quickly enough to only give Hicks short time as a starter. Additionally, his bat does not seem powerful enough to play a corner outfield spot. My hope is that he rebounds so he has the highest trade value because he will be on the blocks by sometime in 2015.

[Kwak]

He may rebound and have a nice career at CF but it will be on another team. Unfortunately for Hicks I feel his window is closing too quickly. Buxton could move up quickly enough to only give Hicks short time as a starter. Additionally, his bat does not seem powerful enough to play a corner outfield spot. My hope is that he rebounds so he has the highest trade value because he will be on the blocks by sometime in 2015.

 

Exactly! I think that Hicks should be extended the opportunity to prove himself as a good, everyday MLB CF, so he can be traded for some real value. The Revere trade was based on a huge need to immediately address the weakness in the rotation. Given the FA pitchers signed, and the other pitching "prospects" gleaned the past two years, the Twins can focus on needs elsewhere. Or, a trade of Hicks (assuming he succeeds as a CF) and other Twins prospect(s) for a high-quality veteran at a position (even SP!) of need.

[cmathewson]

I wouldn't rule out a corner job. He has the raw power. If he improves his pitch selection, he could be a decent corner guy, with his glove and arm as value adds.

[Craig Arko]

I tell you, the one thing I don't want to see is Hicks become the next Carlos Gomez, going on to shine elsewhere because we gave up on him a couple years too soon. Patience am good .

[ericchri]

While I agree you would look for a power bat to man a corner outfield spot, that's typically because many of those power bats profile so bad defensively, they can't play anywhere else. In the case of Hicks, he might never be a 20+ HR hitter (though he showed flashes of power that make it seem possible if not likely), I wonder at the reasoning that his bat won't be good enough for a corner. He profiles as a potential higher OBP guy, something this team desperately needs at the moment. It almost feels like people are falling into the same stereotypes that Gardy gets mocked for frequently, deciding that certain positions are supposed to be certain types of hitters.

 

Until last season, Hicks' worst seasons were still a .722 and .735 OPS, and the rest were above .800, and even those two "bad" seasons included an OBP of over .350. Would it really be so horrible to have a .750 OPS'ing corner outfielder who had an OBP over .350 and enough speed to take/steal extra bases occasionally? I'm not trying to predict that's the hitter he will be, but I don't find it particularly far-fetched to think he could. If that included well-above average defense for the position as well, why is that not good enough? To me, I would see an Alex Gordon with a little less power, a little more discipline, and that's a good baseball player.

[TheLeviathan]

Shouldn't be discouraged. Chris Young was/is an above average baseball player. Perhaps he is in decline, but his last six years he's been worth 13.7 WAR. I'd take that kind of value out of Hicks.

 

I think the term "was" is important. Of that 13.7 WAR - 9 of it came in two seasons. Meaning he was roughly a 1 WAR player the other four. I know it's not fair to discharge those seasons, but the WAR total is a bit misleading if you don't parse it out a bit.

 

I had higher hopes for Hicks than a 1-2 WAR player and maybe his peak will look like those two outliers for Young. I'm just not sure about that.

[Mike Sixel]

I recall reading on Fangraphs that no one had ever started that badly and become good, but that could have been an offhand comment on a chat.....and not analysis......

 

I agree with Brock. I have no idea what is happening next with him. But I still wish he had quit switch hitting two years ago. I think he'd be a good MLB player already.

[JP3700]

I think the term "was" is important. Of that 13.7 WAR - 9 of it came in two seasons. Meaning he was roughly a 1 WAR player the other four. I know it's not fair to discharge those seasons, but the WAR total is a bit misleading if you don't parse it out a bit.

 

I had higher hopes for Hicks than a 1-2 WAR player and maybe his peak will look like those two outliers for Young. I'm just not sure about that.

 

His discrepancy in WAR is heavily weighted by how his defense was measured those years. In his two superstar years he was out of this world good defensively. In his down years he was a negative defender. The truth is probably somewhere in the middle, so it all balances out. He was probably closer to league average his down years and just a star his two breakout years.

 

Either way, I'd take the total value anyway I can get it. Whether it be a consistent 2+ WAR a year or two superstar level years mixed in with some mediocre years.

 

The Diamondbacks got 14.7 WAR over his 6+ years of team control. I'd take that with just about any prospect.

[Linus]

Offensively, I agree. I still think he has a chance to stick as a corner outfielder because of his superb defensive skills. The Twins signed three new starting pitchers (plus Pelfrey) who pitch to contact, and the Twins will need the best defense they can put on the field in order to keep opponents from scoring.

 

The point is not whether he can play a corner outfield spot - clearly he can. The point is what course of action brings the Twins the greatest return on this asset. My contention is that he is more valuable as center fielder trade chip than staying in Minnesota and playing a corner spot, especially with corner outfielders in the pipeline. Good centerfielders are much more valuable than good corner outfielders.

[Jim H]

Good article, Nick. People forget how mediocre Hunter was at the beginning of his career. Actually, his minor league career was mediocre as well. He didn't really hit outstandingly in the minors until he was sent back to the minors after being in the majors for more than a year. I remember thinking that Hunter wasn't going to be more than a 4th outfielder. He really wasn't very good defensively either, Kelly played him in leftfield for awhile.

 

Even after Hunter was established, he really wasn't all that consistent. His season numbers always looked OK but it was generally a hot month in the middle of the season that made them look pretty good. What this indicates about Hicks, I don't know. There are some similarities and Hicks has demonstrated much better plate discipline in the minors than Hunter ever did. I don't that agree that the Twins should have forced him to quick switch hitting either. I just think the Twins and fans should be more patient with him. I think he will be pretty good, eventually, it just might take a few years.

 

One last point, most posters on this site did indeed want Hicks to go north last spring. There were very few who actually posted that he should be sent to AAA. It wasn't just the Twins who thought his spring indicated that he was ready for the majors.

[shs_59]

Hicks earned an opening day start by having the best ST out of the entire roster. You really would have started him in AAA and had Clete Thomas as the opening day CF? They did bat him lead off way too long and probably should have demoted him sooner but he's got skills, he should be at least OK at some point in the near future with a lot of upside.

 

 

THanks for the question hobbs.

 

Absolutely! I would of started him in AAA Rochester if he mashed in ST, if he didn't hit very well in Spring Trainging I would of sent him to AA New Britian.

 

Hicks could of hitt better than he did in ST, and I still would of sent him to the minors. Spring Training stats = almost nothing as they are a tiny sample size against inferrior competition (often times)

 

Plus if i recall, Hicks hitt 4 HR's in spring, 3 of them in one wind blown game.

 

Hopefully the Twins have learned their lesson.

 

 

Now looking ahead to 2014, Where will Hicks start now AA , AAA ? It has to be the latter , but you JUST HOPE that his confidence isn't completely shattered and we have Joe Benson 2.0 on our hands.

 

Thats why i couldn't believe the lack of patience with so many people on here, regarding Hicks and other young players... when we weren't going to compete last year anyways.

 

 

Little frustrating.

 

 

I think Dozier was slightly rushed, and possibly Arcia, although we've handeled that much better.

[cmathewson]

THanks for the question hobbs.

 

Absolutely! I would of started him in AAA Rochester if he mashed in ST, if he didn't hit very well in Spring Trainging I would of sent him to AA New Britian.

 

Hicks could of hitt better than he did in ST, and I still would of sent him to the minors. Spring Training stats = almost nothing as they are a tiny sample size against inferrior competition (often times)

 

Plus if i recall, Hicks hitt 4 HR's in spring, 3 of them in one wind blown game.

 

Hopefully the Twins have learned their lesson.

 

 

Now looking ahead to 2014, Where will Hicks start now AA , AAA ? It has to be the latter , but you JUST HOPE that his confidence isn't completely shattered and we have Joe Benson 2.0 on our hands.

 

Thats why i couldn't believe the lack of patience with so many people on here, regarding Hicks and other young players... when we weren't going to compete last year anyways.

 

 

Little frustrating.

 

 

I think Dozier was slightly rushed, and possibly Arcia, although we've handeled that much better.

 

I understand the frustration, but I know this is among the least predictable things in baseball. You consider all the data available and make a decision, hoping it works out. Sometimes you win. Sometimes you lose. Sometimes it rains.

[jay]

Until last season, Hicks' worst seasons were still a .722 and .735 OPS, and the rest were above .800, and even those two "bad" seasons included an OBP of over .350. Would it really be so horrible to have a .750 OPS'ing corner outfielder who had an OBP over .350 and enough speed to take/steal extra bases occasionally? I'm not trying to predict that's the hitter he will be, but I don't find it particularly far-fetched to think he could. If that included well-above average defense for the position as well, why is that not good enough? To me, I would see an Alex Gordon with a little less power, a little more discipline, and that's a good baseball player.

 

If he's putting up a .350+ OBP and great defense, that's obviously good enough to play. The issue people are pointing out is that's hardly likely. Developing into a .320ish OBP and .720 OPS in LF or RF? That's fringe starter/4th outfielder territory, even with good defense.

[jimbo92107]

Hicks is a fantastic physical specimen, highly intelligent, works his butt off, arm like a rocket, fast as heck, courageous to a fault in center field.

 

I feel pretty good about his prospects for improving at the plate. He's known to be coachable, and he's got some pretty serious experts to help him figure it out. Chances are good.

[ericchri]

If he's putting up a .350+ OBP and great defense, that's obviously good enough to play. The issue people are pointing out is that's hardly likely. Developing into a .320ish OBP and .720 OPS in LF or RF? That's fringe starter/4th outfielder territory, even with good defense.

 

I guess the point is moreso people are making conjectures about his bat now when honestly we don't really have an idea how good a hitter he's going to be yet. Yeah, his first MLB season was horrible, but somehow that translates into he can never be a good hitter? He has the potential (yes, potential, not a prediction of anything specific) to be a much better hitter than people are giving him credit for. Didn't we just do this with Dozier a year ago? Let's let him find his place as a major leaguer, see what kind of hitter he actually becomes, before we declare he can or can't play a corner outfield position.

 

I do agree with some in that if he finds himself as a hitter, he may be more valuable as CF trade bait than manning a corner for the Twins, but let's find out who he is first.

[SouthDakotaFarmer]

I can't remember where are read/heard this, but a few months ago rumor had it that Hicks has benn playing golf all day and everyday this winter. I love me some golf, but back when I played ball in college, if I spent to much time golfing, it would really screw with my baseball swing. Obviously there is a reason I'm sitting on my couch at age 30 and not playing baseball anymore, but does this argument hold merit? I hope I dreamed this up and didn't actually read or hear it.

[Badsmerf]

I guess the point is moreso people are making conjectures about his bat now when honestly we don't really have an idea how good a hitter he's going to be yet. Yeah, his first MLB season was horrible, but somehow that translates into he can never be a good hitter? He has the potential (yes, potential, not a prediction of anything specific) to be a much better hitter than people are giving him credit for. Didn't we just do this with Dozier a year ago? Let's let him find his place as a major leaguer, see what kind of hitter he actually becomes, before we declare he can or can't play a corner outfield position.

 

I do agree with some in that if he finds himself as a hitter, he may be more valuable as CF trade bait than manning a corner for the Twins, but let's find out who he is first.

His track record in the minors shows he's struggled with RH pitchers his entire professional career. Just because he struggled in his first stint doesn't make worry... the fact he got completely blown away makes me worry. His numbers started to look better when he started facing more LH pitchers. His splits are .559 to .713. I don't hold out much hope for improving beyond just being bad from that side.

[jay]

Didn't we just do this with Dozier a year ago? Let's let him find his place as a major leaguer, see what kind of hitter he actually becomes, before we declare he can or can't play a corner outfield position.

 

I do agree with some in that if he finds himself as a hitter, he may be more valuable as CF trade bait than manning a corner for the Twins, but let's find out who he is first.

 

Maybe we read this thread differently, but I've seen it as pretty positive given how last year went for Aaron. There was exactly one post saying he won't play a corner which was later clarified as saying he'd just be more valuable in CF.

 

His track record in the minors shows he's struggled with RH pitchers his entire professional career. Just because he struggled in his first stint doesn't make worry... the fact he got completely blown away makes me worry. His numbers started to look better when he started facing more LH pitchers. His splits are .559 to .713. I don't hold out much hope for improving beyond just being bad from that side.

 

His splits last year in MLB looked especially bad, but the sample size isn't huge. I was really surprised his MiLB splits weren't as bad as I was expecting. MiLB splits: .813 vs LH, .755 vs RH. http://minorleaguecentral.com/player?pid=543305&split=3000

 

When you look at average splits across MLB, that's almost exactly what you would expect for a righty who hits lefties better. If he was .813 vs LH, you'd expect roughly 7% worse vs RH for .756. You'd hope for a switch hitter to be more neutral, but at least he's not showing a bigger split than you'd expect anyway. That's a big knock against the "quit switch-hitting" wagon that I wasn't expecting to find. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/basic-hitter-platoon-splits-2002-2012/

[Badsmerf]

That doesn't cover prior to 2011. I feel like it would tell a different story if it did. I might be wrong (happened exactly once), but his struggles are well documented. Nothing points to this being a fluke. His advanced stats (LD% being my favorite) shows he just doesn't hit very well from that side. Maybe he figures it out. I'll just leave it at that. Going back and forth about it does no good. I'm one of the strongest advocates to dropping switch hitting, I really don't feel it is as much an advantage as some.

[Thrylos]

I recall reading on Fangraphs that no one had ever started that badly and become good, but that could have been an offhand comment on a chat.....and not analysis......

 

"No one" and "ever" are big words.

Check Brian Harper's first 7+1 seasons in the majors or Shane Mack's first 2 seasons in the majors or the aforementioned Carlos Gomez' first 5 seasons in the majors for quick examples (unless you think that these guys were/are not "good"...)

[Mike Sixel]

what was it about the quote stating that I read it online that mislead you to believe it was my belief? I read it on fangraphs, not sure what you want from me......

[cmathewson]

If he's putting up a .350+ OBP and great defense, that's obviously good enough to play. The issue people are pointing out is that's hardly likely. Developing into a .320ish OBP and .720 OPS in LF or RF? That's fringe starter/4th outfielder territory, even with good defense.

 

Hick's OBP in the minors:

 

Year Age Level OBP

 

2008 18 Rook 409

2009 19 Low A 353

2010 20 Low A 401

2011 21 High A 354

2012 22 AA 384

 

Last year seems to be an aberration. Given what he did through his AA season as a 22 year old, a 350 OBP is likely. Only those who focus exclusively on 2013 would say it is "hardly likely".

[Willihammer]

Hicks was among the most passive hitters in baseball last year. He swung less than 40% of the time. He struckout looking 1 out of every 10 times he came to the plate. He has to become more aggressive, not more passive. The pitching is too good at this level to take a lot of strikes