Baseball prospectus rankings

[Oxtung]

So he plays in 67 games, and has an Aaron Hicks-style slump in the first 14. That leaves 53 games to get his average up to .254 from .100. In other words, he slumped for two weeks and hit over .300 the rest of the way. Two weeks of adjustment is hardly something you would base a rating like this on.

 

No. His first 2 weeks at NB aren't included in that .254 and 29% K rate. I used only games 14-67 at New Britain. Those are serious red flags. Even at Fort Meyers he had a 25% K rate which is very high. The reason FM looks so much better is that his BABIP was sooooo much higher it obscured the strikeout problem.

[Oxtung]

Interesting contrast with the MLB.com list from last week. Rosario was rated #8 for 2B, and didn't crack the top-100 list, whereas BP has him #3 for 2B and #60 overall. That is quite the difference of opinion. I'm curious how other sites (BA, Sickels, Law, etc) rank him.

 

AT the end of the 2013 season Sickels ranked Rosario 65th. He stated he likes Rosario as a hitter and that "he has figured out second base." The only 2B that is ranked higher is Kolten Wong at 47.

 

It will be interesting to see if he thinks the same for his pre-season 2014 list.

[righty8383]

Even if you exclude his first 2 weeks at AA he still only hit .254 and struckout 29% of the time. Neither of those are good. Nobody questions if he'll hit for power. But will he hit .240 or .280? That's the question, well along with do you think he'll play 3B or 1B.

That isn't even a question anymore. Only thing that will force a switch is if he has more arm problems, or he gets too big.

[righty8383]

Looking forward to the next few days. ESPN will be releasing Keith Law's org rankings tomorrow. Wednesday is the top 100. Then Thursday will be each team's top 10. Klaw is my favorite as far as prospects (both pro and amateur) writers go.

[Thrylos]

Well lets look at Sano at 14, he struggled in AA,

 

And this is the fine moment, when someone's .900+ OPS season is called "struggling"...

 

Sano in 2013:

 

New Britain: .915 OPS, .335 isoP, .108 isoD, .236 BA, 19 HR, 55 RBI (276 PA)

Fort Myers: 1.079 OPS, .325 isoP, .096 isoD, .330 BA, 16 HR, 48 RBI (243 PA)

 

Sano's contact rate was not as high in AA as in A+. That's it. And that was driven by a .397 BABIP in Fort Myers vs. .280 BABIP in New Britain. His career numbers have been around .350ish. Which means that he was unlucky in New Britain.

[johnnydakota]

Why indeed? Well, it was because he had a two-week slump after he got called up to AA. That's the longest slump of his career so far. I haven't looked, but I venture a guess that the other guys on the list have had similar slumps. Buxton hasn't yet, but otherwise, it seems pretty silly to drop a guy so far because he had a slump in an otherwise extraordinary year.

 

Slump and an injurry?

[Oxtung]

That isn't even a question anymore. Only thing that will force a switch is if he has more arm problems, or he gets too big.

 

IMO it really comes down to what level of play are the Twins willing to accept at 3B. There is a spectrum ranging from elite to down right terrible. If the Twins believe they must have an above average defender at the hot corner then Sano is going to be moved. If they decide it's ok to be below average as long as his bat carries it's weight well then he might very well stick there. A good comp seems to be Cabrera, not that I think Sano is likely to hit like Cabrera or even field like Cabrera, but will his stick be enough to accept some defensive short comings.

 

Unfortunately for us this won't be resolved until we see him in the majors in the next few years.

[johnnydakota]

So he plays in 67 games, and has an Aaron Hicks-style slump in the first 14. That leaves 53 games to get his average up to .254 from .100. In other words, he slumped for two weeks and hit over .300 the rest of the way. Two weeks of adjustment is hardly something you would base a rating like this on.

 

Sano was what 19-20 years old playing against guys who are generally 2-3 years older?

Most player find the jump from A ball to AA the hardest, Im guessing his elbow was already bothering him by that time. Did he struggle ? Yup sure did, does every player at some time in there career struggle? Yup sure do, do I think we should release him? Heck no, Im guessing he will come back to AA and show what he can do healthy and fresh and all of this will be for not.Relax he was bumped down 11 spots on 1 list and yes there was some reasons for it, but that doesnt mean he should retire....

[markos]

AT the end of the 2013 season Sickels ranked Rosario 65th. He stated he likes Rosario as a hitter and that "he has figured out second base." The only 2B that is ranked higher is Kolten Wong at 47.

 

It will be interesting to see if he thinks the same for his pre-season 2014 list.

 

I think MLB.com had him ranked in the 60s at the end of the season also. I wonder how much his mediocre showing at the AFL hurt his ranking. In particular, it was probably the first time that a lot of scouts were able to see him play 2B regularly. When MLB.com released their top-10 2B, I recall Callis mentioning that he doesn't think Rosario sticks at 2B. Hopefully Rosario will be able to take about 1000 grounders a day while he is serving his suspension.

[twinsfan34]

Yea, the main indicators as to why Rosario dropped is he's played CF/LF mostly in the DR league. It appears he may be moving back to the OF.

 

Granted, as someone mentioned, he was still listed at 2B in their positional rankings. So not sure the first theory holds.

 

Carlos Santana played predominantly 3B for the Indians in the DR league. Others were also trying new positions.

 

I wonder also if the lost time will affect Rosario's development factor in their ratings.

 

I'm not sold on him being great. He'll make a lot of contact. Sounds like a Placido Polanco type, but if he's an OF, there might not be much room for him in the bigs, with the Twins or not as he doesn't have Juan Pierre type speed.

[oldguy10]

Anyone know for sure where Rosario will play at New Britain, outfield or second base? Or will that be determined in spring training?

[maars]

Sano was what 19-20 years old playing against guys who are generally 2-3 years older?

Most player find the jump from A ball to AA the hardest, Im guessing his elbow was already bothering him by that time. Did he struggle ? Yup sure did, does every player at some time in there career struggle? Yup sure do, do I think we should release him? Heck no, Im guessing he will come back to AA and show what he can do healthy and fresh and all of this will be for not.Relax he was bumped down 11 spots on 1 list and yes there was some reasons for it, but that doesnt mean he should retire....

 

Exactly. I was looking at Giancarlo Stanton's minor league history earlier today and was pleasantly surprised to see an almost exact replica of Sano's AA struggles. He was promoted in the middle of the season after mashing in hi-A at age 19 (his birthday is 6 months after Sano's) and saw his batting average drop from .294 to a Sano-esque .231. Unlike Sano, his power also dropped as did his plate discipline but the next season he bounced back to hit .313/.442/.729 in AA before getting called up a few months into the season to hit 22 home runs for the Marlins. Of course there's no way to know that Sano will do the same, but it's a nice reminder of how top prospects can bounce back after a rough first look at AA.

[jokin]

Slump and an injurry?

 

And other on- and off-field distractions like the filming of Pelotero 2 and the Jeff Smith/Terry Ryan "suspension".

[Oxtung]

I think MLB.com had him ranked in the 60s at the end of the season also. I wonder how much his mediocre showing at the AFL hurt his ranking. In particular, it was probably the first time that a lot of scouts were able to see him play 2B regularly. When MLB.com released their top-10 2B, I recall Callis mentioning that he doesn't think Rosario sticks at 2B. Hopefully Rosario will be able to take about 1000 grounders a day while he is serving his suspension.

 

I would guess that most scouts saw Rosario on a semi-regular basis, not just because of Eddie himself but because on his team was also Sano as well as any top prospects they were playing against. For instance when they were playing the Cubs A+ affiliate on the field would have been Sano, Rosario, Jorge Soler and Javier Baez. My guess is that would be a very well attended game by scouts.

[amjgt]

Why indeed? Well, it was because he had a two-week slump after he got called up to AA. That's the longest slump of his career so far. I haven't looked, but I venture a guess that the other guys on the list have had similar slumps. Buxton hasn't yet, but otherwise, it seems pretty silly to drop a guy so far because he had a slump in an otherwise extraordinary year.

 

Buxton actually did have that slump.

 

From his call up to High A thru 7/22 (23 games) his triple slash was 245/292/337 (629 OPS)

From 7/23 though the end of the year (36 games) his triple slash was 378/503/559 (1062 OPS)

 

His K% went from 22.6% down to 16.7%

SB went from 4 up to 19

[markos]

I would guess that most scouts saw Rosario on a semi-regular basis, not just because of Eddie himself but because on his team was also Sano as well as any top prospects they were playing against. For instance when they were playing the Cubs A+ affiliate on the field would have been Sano, Rosario, Jorge Soler and Javier Baez. My guess is that would be a very well attended game by scouts.

 

I agree with you that Rosario has been frequently scouted because he has been teamed up with Sano for most of his career. I was trying to make the distinction that the AFL was a rare opportunity for scouts to see Rosario play 2B day-in and day-out for several weeks. I'm speculating that it is a much better format for determining how he's adjusted to a new defensive position, rather than just seeing a random game or series here or there.

[meister]

He raked against the bottom 3rd pitchers and struggled against the top 3rd....

and if you say he didnt struggle , why did he drop 11 places?

 

Sano has not dropped on the BP list (except slightly from 2012). In 2011 he was #31, 2012 he was #12 and in 2013 he was #21. In the last season he has jumped this list 7 places and by my count there were 6 that graduated from the 2013 list. Perhaps it's partly semantics here, but his placement on the BP list has been pretty consistent and the comparative differences between the lists speaks more about BP's higher valuing of up-the-middle defense and pitching versus power bats at a corner infield position.

 

The difference between Pinto's grade here versus MLB & BA is most striking for me.

[Shane Wahl]

Sano's career line now is .273/.373/.567 (.940). I would not be all that surprised if that was his MLB average line from 2015 on . . . for 10 years or so.

 

I think he should start in AAA (NOT AA and not MLB) to see some more different pitching and then he can make his move in to MLB in June (with Meyer, if they are smart about his innings in AAA).

[meister]

The Twins have always over-valued batting AVG and often return players to their previous level to start a season if that number was low. Because of that, I see Sano starting in AA. How soon he gets to Minnesota will be dependent on more factors than just how Sano plays, such as, Plouffe, Super 2 projection dates.

[twinsfan34]

I agree, the Super 2 (mid June 2014) will likely be when he'd be considered, unless he's far and away superior at 3B to any other player out of ST.

[righty8383]

The Twins have always over-valued batting AVG and often return players to their previous level to start a season if that number was low. Because of that, I see Sano starting in AA. How soon he gets to Minnesota will be dependent on more factors than just how Sano plays, such as, Plouffe, Super 2 projection dates.

 

What exactly makes you say this?

[nicksaviking]

BP also was among the lowest of Sano's rankings last year too. The seem to value shortstops and defense much more than others.

[Turd Furgeson]

I actually think he's undervaluing Lindor. Lindor is arguably is the best defensive player in the minors regardless of position. He drew more walks than strikeouts last year and stole 25 bases in just 400 at bats.

 

Think about this for a minute. Andrelton Simmons who hits .300 with an OBP around .370 and steals 30 bases for you.

 

Yeah, he's probably the best "true" shortstop prospect in terms of being a no doubter to stick to the position, though I think most every scout would put his glove behind Jose Iglesias and almost certainly behind Simmons. Lindor has a solid bat, he'll get a lot of hits but he has very little power.

 

IDK, I'd probably rank him a few spots lower but not much.

[Turd Furgeson]

And this is the fine moment, when someone's .900+ OPS season is called "struggling"...

 

Sano in 2013:

 

New Britain: .915 OPS, .335 isoP, .108 isoD, .236 BA, 19 HR, 55 RBI (276 PA)

Fort Myers: 1.079 OPS, .325 isoP, .096 isoD, .330 BA, 16 HR, 48 RBI (243 PA)

 

Sano's contact rate was not as high in AA as in A+. That's it. And that was driven by a .397 BABIP in Fort Myers vs. .280 BABIP in New Britain. His career numbers have been around .350ish. Which means that he was unlucky in New Britain.

 

Yes, that's it but it's a very big "it". The hit tool is the most transferable skill in baseball so you can't take it lightly when a guy like Sano, with all of the things he does really well struggles to make contact consistently in AA. No one questions the power. But they do question, how usable it will be based on the hit tool. He's still ranked in the top 15, I'd have ranked him in the top 10 but it's not a big deal.

[Oxtung]

Yeah, he's probably the best "true" shortstop prospect in terms of being a no doubter to stick to the position, though I think most every scout would put his glove behind Jose Iglesias and almost certainly behind Simmons. Lindor has a solid bat, he'll get a lot of hits but he has very little power.

 

IDK, I'd probably rank him a few spots lower but not much.

 

That's fair enough. In the end small distinctions like this really come down to what you ultimately are looking for in a SS. All else being equal, namely that we aren't trying to fit a player into an existing lineup that is full of Power or OBP guys so you aren't looking for a specific fit, I'd choose the elite defensive player that will OPS .775 over the average defender that is going to OPS .875. It's just what I'm looking for at shortstop so that is why I would rate Lindor so high. Obviously if you have different tastes you'll appreciate one of the other SS more. In the end though I think we can all agree it would be damn nice to have any of those SS in our system!!

[Oxtung]

I agree with you that Rosario has been frequently scouted because he has been teamed up with Sano for most of his career. I was trying to make the distinction that the AFL was a rare opportunity for scouts to see Rosario play 2B day-in and day-out for several weeks. I'm speculating that it is a much better format for determining how he's adjusted to a new defensive position, rather than just seeing a random game or series here or there.

 

Ahhh, got it now. Interesting hypothetical. Do you get a better "read" on a player if you see them play 10 times over a 2 month span or 10 times over a full 5 month season where you can see how they are improving. Don't know.

[Larsbars08]

Sano is going to struggle (as he did) against better arms. His hit tool will be enough for the power to play, but I'm not sold that his power will play to full potential. He could still end up hitting 30+ bombs, but the power will likely come at the expense of consistent contact. He's still in the top 20 prospects in the game (in an absolutely loaded class), and even though he has weaknesses in his game, the power is so good that it justifies such a high rank. I can't see ranking him in the top 5, though. Too many questions about the hit tool and defensive profile to go that crazy.

 

Someone asked the same question and this was Jason Park's response. I can't disagree with his reasoning too much, although I think (believe) that Sano will overcome the issues. I still think for his power and on base % at 3rd base alone makes him a top 10 overall prospect. But Parks know this much better than I do.

[markos]

In the end though I think we can all agree it would be damn nice to have any of those SS in our system!!

 

That brings up an interesting question: Would you trade Sano for any of the four SS that BP ranked ahead of Sano?

 

My answers...

Baez? Yes.

Correa? Yes.

Lindor? Leaning toward no.

Russell? No.

 

I feel like Baez and Correa will provide 90% of Sano's offense while being significantly better defensively, either if they stay at SS or if they have to move to 3B or 2B. Lindor needs to be a stud defensively, and I'm hesitant to bank on that right now. Russell isn't at the same level as Baez or Correa offensively, and is reportedly good but not great defensively. That seems too risky to me.

[twinsfan34]

I don't know enough about Lindor, though he might have the highest WAR out of the bunch. He projects as Ozzie Smith, the BB/SO ratio to the great defense. Not many people realize that Ozzie, in a 13 year stretch, had 10 seasons of 5 WAR or more. Position adjusted of course helped, but still impressive for any position.

 

For me, Baez, poses the biggest flameout of the bunch and more risk than Sano.

 

I think Russell and Correa will be great. Not sure I'd trade Sano for either though. As much as a "good shortstop" is in this league, a 3B who can hit 35+ HR is pretty rare (Cabrera, though now moving to 1B).

[Oxtung]

That brings up an interesting question: Would you trade Sano for any of the four SS that BP ranked ahead of Sano?

 

My answers...

Baez? Yes.

Correa? Yes.

Lindor? Leaning toward no.

Russell? No.

 

I feel like Baez and Correa will provide 90% of Sano's offense while being significantly better defensively, either if they stay at SS or if they have to move to 3B or 2B. Lindor needs to be a stud defensively, and I'm hesitant to bank on that right now. Russell isn't at the same level as Baez or Correa offensively, and is reportedly good but not great defensively. That seems too risky to me.

 

My gut reactions was yes, across the board. A SS is so much more valuable than a 3B, but you make some good points.

 

I'd probably say

Bogaerts? Yes.

Baez? Yes.

Correa? Yes.

Lindor? Definately.

Russell? No.

 

Correa, Baez and Bogaerts seem like pretty obvious yeses to me. They both might stick at SS and even if they don't they'll be better defenders at 3B with only a slight offensive drop (if there is even any, Baez looks like he could match Sano).

 

Lindor to me is the easiest of the group to me. An elite defender at SS that can also be a 1 or 2 hitter. Does that even exist in the game right now? Ian Desmond and Elvis Andrus might be closest.

 

Russell....not sure. Probably not. As you said he's not on the same level offensively and not elite defensively as the others.