Article: What to Make of Trevor May?

[Mike Sixel]

The Twins traded an organizational strength and a player who had likely out performed his ability for an organizational need (young starting pitching). That the deal hasn't totally panned out for the Twins (or the Phillies) doesn't mean it wasn't a good trade at the time.

 

I didn't say it was, I said there is no way to say they have a positive return yet, as someone here is saying. And, it is only a good trade if it works.

[PseudoSABR]

And, it is only a good trade if it works.

I disagree. There's a variety of reasons why players succeed and fail that go well beyond what a team can anticipate.

[johnnydakota]

The Twins traded an organizational strength and a player who had likely out performed his ability for an organizational need (young starting pitching). That the deal hasn't totally panned out for the Twins (or the Phillies) doesn't mean it wasn't a good trade at the time.

 

 

So your saying the Twins couldnt have used Ben last year ? What was out leadoff OBP last year, how many times did we have catchers in the outfield? There was a need for Revere last year and posibly this year as well

[Mike Sixel]

I disagree. There's a variety of reasons why players succeed and fail that go well beyond what a team can anticipate.

Agreed on some of that. If a guy with no injury history gets hurt, that's not the team's fault. But if May is just bad, and Worley is just bad, then that is on the scouts and the GM, isn't it? If not, why does it matter who the GM and scouts are, if they aren't accountable for their decisions.

[Willihammer]

I don't want to give the impression that I am overly optimistic about May, but his secondary stats improved a lot between '12 and '13. Specifically, his FIP decreased from 4.88 in '12 to 3.78 in '13 DESPITE having an inversely proportional BABIP of .292 vs. .329.

 

BABIP wouldn't affect FIP one way or the other since its only measuring Ks BBs and HRs.

 

But true his K, BB, and HR rates all ticked positively in 2013. But May has always had reverse platoon splits (either because fo the strength of his changeup or weakness of his breaking pitches - probably both). And in 2013 he faced a higher proportion of LHBs.

 

Might not explain all of the improvement but probably some.

[TheLeviathan]

Agreed on some of that. If a guy with no injury history gets hurt, that's not the team's fault. But if May is just bad, and Worley is just bad, then that is on the scouts and the GM, isn't it? If not, why does it matter who the GM and scouts are, if they aren't accountable for their decisions.

 

This is a good point. Just because it's hindsight doesn't mean it wasn't a bad trade if May and Worley wash out and Revere sticks around. You can say the idea/method was good at the time, but something went wrong in the deal if it didn't pan out. You can still say that without totally trashing the thought process.

[OldTimeTwinkie]

People should listen to the tremendous interview that the Talk to Contact podcast guys had with Trevor May on Wednesday night. They asked some great questions and got into his mind. It sounds like he learned a ton from his time in the AFL. He made some great points and gave great insight into what he's thinking and working on.

 

http://talk2contact.podomatic.com/entry/2014-01-15T20_07_22-08_00

 

Was fortunite to see Twins prospects in the AFL and hate to say it but compared to the competition out there we are overating our prospects. May will look like Liam Hendricks if he gets to big league.

[Thrylos]

So your saying the Twins couldnt have used Ben last year ? What was out leadoff OBP last year, how many times did we have catchers in the outfield? There was a need for Revere last year and posibly this year as well

 

I hated the Revere trade, because I like him and he is one of those charismatic good energy guys. That said, if the Twins had Revere instead of Hicks starting at CF, how many more games would have won? 27 more games? Because that is what they needed to get to the post-season. So not much harm there...

[johnnydakota]

I hated the Revere trade, because I like him and he is one of those charismatic good energy guys. That said, if the Twins had Revere instead of Hicks starting at CF, how many more games would have won? 27 more games? Because that is what they needed to get to the post-season. So not much harm there...

 

Agreeing keeping lil Ben would not have gained us 27 additional wins, but keeping a few of the 22 players we have let go in the last 4 years and maybe signing a few quality free agents to add to the mix could have gained us 25-30 additional wins, As for Bens future with the Twins,he would still be contributing this year and next as well , but yes I understand that 1 player doesnt make a championship team, but when you continue to down grade at every chance and have a 22 man turnover and continully to seek 1 dimenstional players because they are cheaper , well thats how you have 4 consecutive years of 90+ losses

[jokin]

Ben Revere was not viewed as a guy with no future in the OF though....they traded a starting OFer with a positive WAR (you might want to look at defense too) in the majors, and so far have a AA prospect who did not progress, and an injured MLB pitcher that posted a negative WAR. That's not a good return, yet. To say they have a positve return already is strange to me. The Twins lost year 1 of the trade. There really is no way to debate that. If May doesn't play here, and Worley doesn't....well, they will lose year two of the deal also. Even if Worley does, if Revere is healthy and plays like 2012, I doubt Worley matches him. Doesn't mean I've given up on May, but I don't know how people can even come close to claiming with any certainty the Twins are ahead in this deal.

 

 

As cited before, Ben Revere was one of the top 5 hitters in baseball from his reinsertion into the Phillies starting lineup in late-April until his season-ending injury in July.

 

It is a suspension of disbelief to think that Worley is somehow going to all of a sudden regain his form from 3 years ago. I like May's cerebral approach to improving his performance as a potential MLB starter, but the jury is still out on if he can ever reach his ceiling. If he eventually becomes a Matt Guerrier-type with Worley getting released for ineffectiveness, how will that justify that the Twins won the trade?

[TRex]

BABIP wouldn't affect FIP one way or the other since its only measuring Ks BBs and HRs.

 

But true his K, BB, and HR rates all ticked positively in 2013. But May has always had reverse platoon splits (either because of the strength of his changeup or weakness of his breaking pitches - probably both). And in 2013 he faced a higher proportion of LHBs.

 

Might not explain all of the improvement but probably some.

 

Good point... I should have de-linked them and said his ERA decreased from 4.87 to 4.51 despite his BABIP increasing 37 points AND his FIP had a more impressive decrease from 4.88 to 3.78.

[Jim H]

I always liked Revere and figured that at some point in his career he could compete for a batting title. That still doesn't make him anything resembling a great player, but I think he is a clear major league starter, as long as he has his legs. I rather liked the trade at the time, because I thought Worley could help as a starter, and May had a reasonably high ceiling as a potential starter as well. Most of that still holds except for Worley. May still has a pretty high ceiling and even though I doubt he reaches the majors this year, I still would have some hope even if he doesn't dominate at AAA this year.

 

Most of you are right though, if he is going to be a solid major league starter, we better see signs of it this year at AAA.

[DocBauer]

Despite the excitement and enthusiasm Revere provided for us, and his potential as a very solid defensive OF, and potential igniter, I think we all viewed the trade as a positive for the Twins last year. And while Worley was a huge disappointment, I think fans and press agreed that a hard throwing, IP machine with upside in May was the real "get" in the deal. And while we didn't get the big optimistic year we would have all liked from May, I don't know that one year removed we can really be down on the trade at this point.

 

All of his numbers appear to have improved at least slightly. That is the optimistic side of things. Others would cite a lack of performance in repeating a level and league. But there are factors that are hard to calculate, (some mentioned) with changing teams, facing different hitters, adjusting to new coaching, working on different aspects of his game, etc.

 

His milb numbers show consistent ability to answer when the bell rings. He has always allowed fewer hits than IP, maintained a good to solid BA against, and piled up the strikeouts. He's also shown improvement from one year to the next when repeating at least part of a level. (Even last season, just less so)

 

I think the jury is still rightfully out. Of all the Twins prospects, May is one I'm watching very closely this year. Make or break I don't know. Pitchers all progress differently. WAY too much talent here to sour so soon.

[PseudoSABR]

This is a good point. Just because it's hindsight doesn't mean it wasn't a bad trade if May and Worley wash out and Revere sticks around. You can say the idea/method was good at the time, but something went wrong in the deal if it didn't pan out. You can still say that without totally trashing the thought process.

I think this is fair.

 

However sound the methodology might be (the process with which we can actually repeat), if the results aren't there it's time to reevaluate the methodology, but we clearly are not there in this specific case.

 

If May and Worley don't work out, it will still be hard for me to fault the methodology (and thus the trade at the time).

[Dantes929]

If he eventually becomes a Matt Guerrier-type with Worley getting released for ineffectiveness, how will that justify that the Twins won the trade?

I was a fan of Revere but as referenced above I agree that he needs to get on base .350 of the time to make up for his lack of power. His lack of arm is made up for by his plus speed defensively. Essentially though he has no value long term to the Twins since we expect Buxton, Arcia and Rosario to all be better than Revere. I am hoping May figures it out and becomes a quality starter but if instead he gives us exactly what Guerrier gave us I would not consider us losers in the deal unless Revere hits .350 with .380 OBP. Guerrier was a workhorse set up guy that helped anchor several quality bullpens in our Central pennant winning years. IMO he was underrated. Projecting to Guerrier quality is not a bad thing.

[Dantes929]

I think this is fair.

 

However sound the methodology might be (the process with which we can actually repeat), if the results aren't there it's time to reevaluate the methodology, but we clearly are not there in this specific case.

 

QUOTE] You can always reevaluate methodology but not so sure it should be based on results especially on a case by case basis or the short term. There is always a lot of luck involved. If you make deals that should work in your favor but end up as busts and make a few other deals that don't make sense but do work out doesn't mean you should start making deals that don't make sense. If Revere becomes an all star and Worley and May never see another big league inning I will not criticize the trade. On the flip side the Hardy trade was rotten at the time. Time has proven it was rotten but even if Hardy did not succeed like he has I would still view it as a bad deal at the time.

[AlwaysinModeration]

Quoting Boone:

April and May 2013: 60.1 IP 7.9 K/9 4.8 BB/9 1.7 K/BB

June on : 95 IP 10 K/9 3.3 BB/9 3.0 K/BB

 

If May had posted those post May numbers for the entirety of 2013, I think we would be talking about May much more optimistically.

 

To me, May's track record show two (slow) trends: overall improved numbers the second time in a league, and a slow down-tick in his walk rates. May just started with a new organization last year that has had (in the somewhat recent past) success in grooming low-walk rates pitchers. I think it is waaaay too early to relegate May to the pen...I am still very hopeful that May not only makes it as a starter, but turns into something pretty special over the next several years.

[TheLeviathan]

You can always reevaluate methodology but not so sure it should be based on results especially on a case by case basis or the short term. There is always a lot of luck involved. If you make deals that should work in your favor but end up as busts and make a few other deals that don't make sense but do work out doesn't mean you should start making deals that don't make sense. If Revere becomes an all star and Worley and May never see another big league inning I will not criticize the trade. On the flip side the Hardy trade was rotten at the time. Time has proven it was rotten but even if Hardy did not succeed like he has I would still view it as a bad deal at the time.

 

Bad results should drive evaluation, but it doesn't necessitate throwing the baby out with the bath water. There may be something to learn from/improve from that evaluation. And you can do that case by case.

 

We aren't there yet, but certainly some of my positivity about the deal has dulled.

[AlwaysinModeration]

I was trying to think of some guys whose trajectory look like May. Two guys I came up with pretty quick off the top of my head--Sabathia and Scherzer.

[Paul Pleiss]

I did an interview with Trevor May earlier this week (http://www.talktocontact.com/) and he talked a lot about his process and the importance of approaching every at pitch the same, using his process to keep himself balanced and focused without trying to do too much. It was a lot of fun talking with him, and he stayed with us for the better part of 40 minutes. If you are at all a fan of Trevor May, or pitching in general, give it a listen. He's also a DJ in his spare time, DJ MAZR, so if that's your thing two he's clearly a double-threat.

[bird]

Sorry to disagree, as soon as the trade was made I looked at Worleys numbers and thought , hey this is a pretty darn good trade, then after chatting on the Phillies site , I learned that he was twice hurt and never the same after his 1st stint on the DL, and looking at Mays numbers it was obvious he stumbled his 1st year in AA and listening to the experts that his future was in the pen , I started to wonder just how good this trade was .....

 

Yes, and if you revisited the Phillies site, even well before Revere was hurt, you could find mant fans criticizing their team for not getting an adequate return and complaining about Revere's stats. It's way too early to judge this trade.

[OldManWinter]

Not sure good performance of Revere can be used to evaluate this trade in this intance. I hope he does well.

 

The Twins traded a surplus player for a bit of a gamble to fill our great need!

 

I don't think Revere was a player that would command high value to attract many trade partners.

 

Though I enjoyed Revere, his attitude, his speed to make a great catch and stretch a base hit, to me his weak arm and lack of bunting skill were a serious deficiencies that negated most of his positive value.

 

Lets hope the players we received help us sometime.

[Willihammer]

I don't think Revere was a player that would command high value to attract many trade partners.

 

The Braves, Nats, and Giants had all picked up CFers before that trade. Bourn was still on the market too. So the only buyer left at that point, besides Cleveland, was the Phils. Probably wasn't the ideal time to sell, in hindsight.

[PseudoSABR]

The Braves, Nats, and Giants had all picked up CFers before that trade. Bourn was still on the market too. So the only buyer left at that point, besides Cleveland, was the Phils. Probably wasn't the ideal time to sell, in hindsight.

It seems people read the hindsight tea-leaves any way they see fit.

 

The Phils, imho, panicked due to a depleted market, more than the Twins undersold Ben Revere. He's still Ben Revere, Willi; how much higher could the Twins have possibly sold him?

[johnnydakota]

It seems people read the hindsight tea-leaves any way they see fit.

 

The Phils, imho, panicked due to a depleted market, more than the Twins undersold Ben Revere. He's still Ben Revere, Willi; how much higher could the Twins have possibly sold him?

 

You mean besides recieving a twice hurt damaged pitcher and a failed starter in AA? how about Darren Ruf and Petitbone?

[zchrz]

That was a good interview, May really went in depth on what he was working on and everything and where his thought process was at. Sounds like hes poised to take a big step forward and is addressing the control and consitency flaws holding him back. Hopefully he does so and he could quickly be knocking on the door of the rotation, but if he struggles in the minors or doesn't adjust to the majors well, he has the makeup of a late inning reliever to fall back on.

 

MAZR and DruBU what could have been.

[amjgt]

I think that you don't need to look any further than one of our 2015 first ballot hall-of-famers to find optimism in Trevor May and his career path.

 

Randy Johnson: http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/j/johnsra05.shtml

(make sure to unhide his minor league stats)

 

I bring up Johnson, not as a ceiling, but only as a comp in terms of height. Johnson finished his minor league career with 6+ BB/9, to go with about 9.5K/9.

 

His first 4 real major league seasons were at ages 25-28 and he led the league in walks 3 of those years, with about a 1.6K/BB those 4 years.

 

Then, magically, at age 29 he seemed to have figured it out and he went on a 9 year run of dominance.

[oldguy10]

If May puts on a similar 9 year run of dominance the Twins have a pitcher that will garner a few Cy Young awards. How many think this will happen?

[Kwak]

Remember the glee expounded after the PHL trade? Two good starting pitchers for Ben Revere?--Now, we're hoping that May becomes Matt Guerrier in order to salvage something from this trade.

[oldguy10]

I doubt Ryan is hoping for May to put up numbers like Guerrier, isn't he really more interested in him becoming part of the rotation? But a relief pitcher putting up numbers such as Guerrier did is worth settling for I think. Plus Worley may come around as well, if so the trade really becomes lopsided in the Twins' favor. An aside - I've not seen anything about Worley become a reliever, is that beyond the realm of possibility?