Article: The Advantageous Oswaldo Arcia

[Parker Hageman]

You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php/2599-The-Advantageous-Oswaldo-Arcia

[freshinthehouse]

" In the bigs, he reverted back to his previous ways and swung harder and more frequently than your parents at the neighbor’s key party in the late 1980’s."

 

Fantastic.

[ashbury]

" in the bigs, he reverted back to his previous ways and swung harder and more frequently than your parents at the neighbor’s key party in the late 1980’s."

 

Ewww.

 

ftfy.

[Guest USAFChief]

" In the bigs, he reverted back to his previous ways and swung harder and more frequently than your parents at the neighbor’s key party in the late 1980’s."

 

.

ah....memories...

[clank2000]

"Arcia thrived in hitter’s counts when he could anticipate the heater."

 

Sounds like a certain slugger who roamed rightfield for the Twins during most of the '80's. I just hope that's not what he's teaching our youngsters - to be "mistake hitters".

[clank2000]

" In the bigs, he reverted back to his previous ways and swung harder and more frequently than your parents at the neighbor’s key party in the late 1980’s."

 

Fantastic.

 

I thought key parties were a '70's phenomenon.

[Mike Sixel]

I would love more mistake hitters......that's how bonds did it, when a pitcher made a mistake, he crushed it. Too many Twins can't do that right now.

[jay]

From the numbers we were looking at the other day, it'd be easy to say Dozier does the same thing. As I look at it more now, their numbers are both a bit more to the extremes (Arcia especially), but not really bizarre or anything. Parker, where'd you get the .510 for Arcia when ahead?

 

Splits via BRef, MLB:

Ahead - .297/.463/.494 (.957)

Behind - .202/.210.294 (.504)

 

Dozier:

Ahead - .312/.460/.618 (1.078)

Behind - .183/.197/.254 (.451)

 

Arcia:

Ahead - .365/.492/.719 (1.210)

Behind - .143/.149/.171 (.320)

[Parker Hageman]

Parker, where'd you get the .510 for Arcia when ahead?

 

ESPN/trumedia.

 

The difference is that B-R counts 3-2 counts as "batter ahead" -- which is 63 additional plate appearances in which he hit .186 thereby lowing his B-R splits total to .365. At ESPN/trumedia the 3-2 count is considered "even" which, for all intents and purposes, is an even count.

 

Dozier had a very similar problem of not being able to hit secondary stuff well.

[Parker Hageman]

The difference is that Dozier made contact (17.8% swinging strike rate when in pitcher's counts) and Arcia did not (34.8%).

[jay]

The difference is that B-R counts 3-2 counts as "batter ahead" -- which is 63 additional plate appearances in which he hit .186 thereby lowing his B-R splits total to .365. At ESPN/trumedia the 3-2 count is considered "even" which, for all intents and purposes, is an even count.

 

Correct you are, as usual, good sir. Thanks!

[SouthDakotaFarmer]

It may be the fact that he is a corner outfielder and has the same body type and facial features, but he reminds me of Bobby Abreu. I hope he ends up being a walk machine and hitting 25+ dingers a year like Abreu did. I have no idea how his "metrics" or whatever you number nerds call it match up to Abreu's but I like the way this kid approaches his at-bats.

[Jim H]

I am very excited for what Arcia can become. I think that with all the talk about the phenoms Buxton and Sano we the fans, sort of overlook Arcia. He is still quite young, was promoted quite quickly through the upper minors and clearly has things to work on. But, it would be nice to see him intrench himself in right field(I think if they put him there and leave him there he will be OK). The power is clearly for real and the swing is good enough to eventually allow him to hit for a good average as well. If the discipline and pitch recognition come along(as Parker says) he will be a lot of fun to watch.

[kab21]

I'm excited about Arcia but wary as well. There were hints (scouting reports and stats) of being overaggressive with problems hitting breaking balls in the minors and his first MLB season increased those concerns. Has still has nice (offensive) upside though.

[oldguy10]

I think any Twins' fans would take Abreu like numbers from Arcia. And I'd sure like to see some of the attitude Gardy displays toward him be a thing of the past, none of the young players need that, at least I sure do not think so. Encouragement not disparagement toward the younger players is what is needed from management at all levels.

[Madre Dos]

I messaged Oswaldo on July 4th and I told him that I didn't think that there were to many 22 year olds that can say that they have a hit off of Pettitte, Hughes and Sabathia. He was happy that his "Elizabethton Mom" was keeping track of his progress. Oswaldo will be fine. Remember, he won't be 23 until May.

[DocBauer]

At this point I don't know that he has much of anything to prove in the minors. (Yes he has things to work on!) I expect streaks as well as peaks and valleys. He's little more than an almost 23yo rookie. At this point, on a rebuilding club, getting younger all the time, I believe you run with him most days, sit him on occasion to collect himself once in a while.

 

I have a lot of faith in the Twins coaching staff as a whole. With the addition of Molitor, we now have four different coaches that have had various degrees of success as hitting instructors both in the minors and majors. Each has received positive reviews at different times collectively, and with/from individual players. And the staff seems to work well together as a whole, no egos getting in the way. I think this offers a lot of potentially good coaching not only for Arcia, but also the other young hitters on the way up.

[Thrylos]

Advantageous and adventurous as well...

This is from tonight:

 

[video=youtube;ak3rh0j3b0I]

[jokin]

Advantageous and adventurous as well...

This is from tonight:

 

[video=youtube;ak3rh0j3b0I]

 

That was plain ugly and Delmon-esque, from all 6 angles....la pelota y el matodor whiffo ole'! I think there were more cameraman than fans watching that game.

 

Do you at least have an encouraging box score to share, Thrylos?

[twinsnorth49]

Advantageous and adventurous as well...

This is from tonight:

 

[video=youtube;ak3rh0j3b0I]

 

Was he ahead in the count there or behind? I couldn't tell.

[Guest wabene]

I think any Twins' fans would take Abreu like numbers from Arcia. And I'd sure like to see some of the attitude Gardy displays toward him be a thing of the past, none of the young players need that, at least I sure do not think so. Encouragement not disparagement toward the younger players is what is needed from management at all levels.

 

My memory from last year is that Gardy was very positive with reference to Arcia. He would talk about how he loved his fearless attitude as he approached the plate.

[Jim H]

I think any Twins' fans would take Abreu like numbers from Arcia. And I'd sure like to see some of the attitude Gardy displays toward him be a thing of the past, none of the young players need that, at least I sure do not think so. Encouragement not disparagement toward the younger players is what is needed from management at all levels.

 

I have no real idea what you mean about Gardy attitude toward Arcia and perhaps other young players. A great of deal what Gardy says is generic, you read what you want into it, and a lot of fans do. The really important stuff Gardy says, is said directly to the player and largely in private. I don't hear a lot of "Gardy is sure tough on young players" from ex players or really indirectly from anybody else who might have some actual knowlege. The whole Gardy is too tough on young players seems to come from certain segments of the fans, who largely don't like Gardy for other reasons as well.

 

 

None of this means that Gardy is the perfect manager for every young player or that he is anything close to a great manager. I think he is a good manager, I think he has a good, hard working staff and I am satisfied with that.

 

 

I thought Tom Kelly was pretty close to a great manager. I wish he would of had better teams to work with during his time with the Twins. There were those who thought he was too hard on young players as well. It is sort of ironic that among his more important most-managerial duties for the Twins is working with young minor league players.

[TRex]

Advantageous and adventurous as well...

This is from tonight:

 

[video=youtube;ak3rh0j3b0I]

 

OK, first off, that is definitely on him. However... did you see how much that ball was bouncing? Outfield hits didn't even bounce that high off the Astroturf at the Metrodome (except for Knobby's in '91)! This wasn't a case of an outfielder being too lazy to bend down for the ball, as it actually bounced OVER his glove. Again, he should still be cognizant of where he is playing, but I'll chalk this up to focusing too much on the runner at third.

[Heimer]

How did we acquire Arcia?

[cmathewson]

What's a key party?

 

Anywhoo, I think it's equally likely that pitchers will not throw as many heaters to Arcia when behind in the count. And the game of cat and mouse will commence. While I think he can improve on his pitch recognition skills. I hope he doesn't change his approach and suddenly become a patient hitter. We will need those violent swings.

[snepp]

What's a key party?

 

It's not the one that you trade vehicles with people.

[Craig Arko]

It's not the one that you trade vehicles with people.

 

Just prior to the Revolutionary War people threw keys into the lake to protest the stadium tax.

[Kwak]

OK, first off, that is definitely on him. However... did you see how much that ball was bouncing? Outfield hits didn't even bounce that high off the Astroturf at the Metrodome (except for Knobby's in '91)! This wasn't a case of an outfielder being too lazy to bend down for the ball, as it actually bounced OVER his glove. Again, he should still be cognizant of where he is playing, but I'll chalk this up to focusing too much on the runner at third.

 

When I first saw Arcia play I commented "this guy is a White Sox outfielder". Last season and this video confirms that. I'm not sure how he progresses as a hitter, but I'm am sure his future is as a DH and not a fielder.

[amjgt]

Can he play short?

[alskntwnsfn]

From the numbers we were looking at the other day, it'd be easy to say Dozier does the same thing. As I look at it more now, their numbers are both a bit more to the extremes (Arcia especially), but not really bizarre or anything. Parker, where'd you get the .510 for Arcia when ahead?

 

Splits via BRef, MLB:

Ahead - .297/.463/.494 (.957)

Behind - .202/.210.294 (.504)

 

Dozier:

Ahead - .312/.460/.618 (1.078)

Behind - .183/.197/.254 (.451)

 

Arcia:

Ahead - .365/.492/.719 (1.210)

Behind - .143/.149/.171 (.320)

 

Wow, those are amazing splits and it underscores one of the big faults to the Twins hitting philosophy. For the most part, Twins hitters seem to guess very rarely. I'd like to seem them guess a lot more. Way too often our hitters seem to try to cover the whole plate or look to slap the ball oppo, even before they get 2 strikes. I really hope the coaching staff is looking at this and will develop a cheat sheet for each opposing pitcher regarding what they like to do on 0-0, 0-1, 1-0, and 1-1 counts. If our hitters can do a better job of guessing on these early counts hopefully they'll either hit balls harder earlier in the count, effectively increasing their OPS earlier in the count (by taking the same approach as if it was 2-0 or 3-1). And if it helps them get in hitters count, then all the better. There's no excuse for swinging at pitches outside the zone with less than two strikes. It would be really interesting to see a comparison of Twins hitters O-swing% versus other teams in the league with less than 2 strikes. Maybe somebody with more time and expertise with the data could look into that. And it would be interesting to compare the difference in ISO between AAA/AA and the majors for Twins players versus players from other teams. It seems like our guys have a much harder time getting SLG to transfer from the minors to the majors. If our coaching staff can't address this (if we truly are below average in this regard), it makes all our projections about future prospect stardom a mute point.

 

These are the metrics we should use to grade our manager and hitting coaches.