Over/under on Dozier's OPS for 2014 is .680?

 

Millions would take that bet.

And almost all of them would say, "Over".

 

Well, yeah, because we were talking about his floor. I'd take the over too, that's what a floor is.

Then why isn't September what we're expecting? All of the things you can cite about his approach were there and nothing was outlying.

 

That's a .680 OPS player, probably more likely what to expect. Like it or not, you're looking at a rosy picture, not a realistic one.

 

I don't know what's so rosy about "Brian Dozier either has a floor of .700 OPS or he's out of the league". I simply don't see a world where he maintains solid plate discipline but can't SLG at a .375 clip. He's either going to revert in plate discipline and collapse completely or he'll be somewhere around a 100 OPS+ player.