Tanaka to the Twins: What Would It Take?

[beckmt]

I would also worry about injury for the pitcher. Saw a posting the other day that Tanaka threw a 170 pitches in a game. Would rather see the Twins offer Garza close to what he wants than to go down this path. My guess is that he winds up with a 9 figure number for 6-7 years and will either win that GM an executive of the year award, or fail and get the GM fired. My guess is that he is not worth that amount.

[Thrylos]

This is a really good read on Tanaka. Very detailed in-depth analysis of his stuff, including some red flags. Long but worth while...

[cmathewson]

This is a really good read on Tanaka. Very detailed in-depth analysis of his stuff, including some red flags. Long but worth while...

 

Good read. No Thanks. He sports a low 90s fastball and a lot of splits. His arm is due for major regression with the workload he's been through. And he's not that good. Kuroda is the best comp. Haren is his next best comp. That's not good enough to warrant the dollars and years he is about to get.

[minn55441]

No thanks. If we are going to lock up a pitcher for 6, 7 or 8 years, this is not the guy. A contract like this could really hurt a team long term if he doesn't preform at a true number one or if he misses time due to injury.

[johnnydakota]

I'd love this but I think they've spent all they can this offseason on pitching. Be a pleasant surprise though, if you are landing high upside/talent...go for it.

Um what? We are currently about 2 million above the 2009 payroll ...there is about 48 million more avalible if you believe the owner or Terry W. Ryan

[johnnydakota]

This is a really good read on Tanaka. Very detailed in-depth analysis of his stuff, including some red flags. Long but worth while...

 

New Marlins infielder Casey McGehee, who played with Tanaka for Rakuten last season, tells Juan C. Rodriguez of the Sun Sentinel that Tanaka is worth the hype. "His forkball is the best one I’ve seen. ... He was really special with that pitch," says McGehee. "Whoever gets him…it’s going to be money well spent."

[Major League Ready]

No thanks. If we are going to lock up a pitcher for 6, 7 or 8 years, this is not the guy. A contract like this could really hurt a team long term if he doesn't preform at a true number one or if he misses time due to injury.

 

At the risk of stating the obvious, it is a lot riskier for the twins than a top 5 revenue team. The Yankees or the Dodgers can spend the Twins entire budget on position players and bullpen and still have enough left over to sign FAs at this price for their entire starting rotation.

[jorgenswest]

There is a lot to like. Any long term contract will capture the prime of his career with little of the decline. There is no acquisition cost in terms of players traded or draft picks lost or used.

 

Is there a pitcher with more upside on the roster than Tanaka? Meyer? Tanaka is only 1 year older than Meyer and younger than an other potential pitcher on the staff.

[Zephrin]

If we could get him for "market value" I would probably be in favor. I certainly would be ok with a contract that is both longer and richer than Nolasco's at $12 million per year. 7/$120 for Tanaka appeals to me more than 4/$60+ for Garza, or trading for David Price for that matter (whom we almost certainly couldn't get without including Meyer in the package).

 

My problem is that I don't think he would sign with the Twins for anything close to "market value." We would have to overpay big time to get him to sign, and that is a risk we can't afford.

[minn55441]

At the risk of stating the obvious, it is a lot riskier for the twins than a top 5 revenue team. The Yankees or the Dodgers can spend the Twins entire budget on position players and bullpen and still have enough left over to sign FAs at this price for their entire starting rotation.

 

It must not be obvious, because there are many people in favor of the Twins making a signing such as this.

 

Only commit big money and a lot of years to proven commodities. It's not a good idea to get in a bidding war with teams that can afford to make a mistake and eat a bad contract. Although we are coming off of three terrible seasons, the light at the end of the tunnel are the following facts. 1) plenty of young talent in the system 2) we currently don't have any huge bad contracts preventing us from making intelligent moves, when the time is right.

 

The time will be right, when we need one or two key pieces to put us in a position to make a run in the postseason. We are not even close to the point where we should be sliding all of our chips into the center of the table.

[Jim H]

I wonder if Tanaka's status helped the Twins.

 

Several teams are interested. Those that lose out will be going after Garza, Santana and Jimenez. There are more than 4 teams interested. Signing Nolasco early (perhaps by giving a year more than others offered at the time) may have beat the competition waiting for resolution on Tanaka.

 

It appeared that Ryan didn't read the market correctly last year. This year he seems to be ahead of the game.

 

I agree with your 2nd paragraph, I am not so sure about your 3rd. I don't think Ryan was much interested in most of the high priced free agents last year. Since a lot of them actually pitched worst than Correia in the first year of their contracts, he may of been right.

[diehardtwinsfan]

The Twins never were, Once he cost more then 2 bunches of bananas and a donkey , you know they were looking for an exit stratogy. with the payroll being capibale of 127.5 million this year with out using the all star money I agree the Pohlads should just pocket that extra 45 million on top of the normal 10% or 20+ million,after all they got us that shinny new palace right, its not like 2009 payroll was 79 million was it? ...bottom line is the Twins need to post bid and win on Masahiro and then turn around and sign Garza to boot ....

 

I still don't quite understand the spend for the sake of spending argument, and that is what I feel is being argued here. I get that there's room for their payroll to be higher, but they just added 3 starting pitchers and have one more under contract already. I don't see why it can be construed as an indictment that they did so what appears to be a cost effective way. It's still a business at the end of the day.

 

That said, I don't see starting pitching as a need. Not any more.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Ive said it before the Twins only chance is to sell Tanaka on a short contract to establish himself , see what each team is like, in a non pressure sitituation, like Minnesota, then hope you can get good enough in that time frame that he wants to stay....say a 2+1 deal.Thus making him a 28 year old FA with a proven track record

 

 

I agree here, but Tanaka won't. He's going to maximize his payday since right now his value is pretty high. He might make a few million more doing this, but he could also be throwing it all away.

[tobi0040]

Scout all you want, there's a reason why fringe MLB players go to Japan and have success. The level of competition isnt close. To post $20MM then drop double digits for a 6-8 year contract doesn't make sense to me. I'd rather sign Garza, a proven commodity for less years. Or even trade Perk for a couple of those great Padres prospects. I understand the risk/reward argument but I'd rather walk the tightrope to Garza's house than Japan.

 

I could not agree more. The Twins should stay away from this bidding war. Every report I have read suggests his stuff is not comparable to Yu's. Yu has had a few good years, but so did Nomo and Dice-K (to someone else's point). In fact, look at Dice-K in his second year, 18-3 with a 3.60 ERA and a ton of K's. That guy is a step away from being back in Japan. So to give this unproven commodity the type of money a guy like James Shields would likely fetch is crazy.

 

Lastly, teams like the Mariners or Giants can likely view $3-5M a year of his salary as a marketing expense because they are likely to recoup that in ticket sales, concessions, TV viewing, jerseys, etc. The Twins aren't in that position.

[johnnydakota]

I still don't quite understand the spend for the sake of spending argument, and that is what I feel is being argued here. I get that there's room for their payroll to be higher, but they just added 3 starting pitchers and have one more under contract already. I don't see why it can be construed as an indictment that they did so what appears to be a cost effective way. It's still a business at the end of the day.

 

That said, I don't see starting pitching as a need. Not any more.

 

So we add 1 good pitcher 3/4 type , then add 2( hopes) and that is good?

we have the room , we have the money, make the team better, right?

[PseudoSABR]

Darren Wolfson ‏@DarrenWolfson #MNTwins official on Tanaka: "Long process & very difficult to know where it stands." Nonetheless, Twins, like many teams, are interested.

[Zephrin]

None of our best prospects are up yet, and Sano is really the only one with much chance of starting his six year clock this season. We could take on this salary for 6-7 years and still be in position to pay the prospects that effectively develop - hopefully most of Sano, Buxton, Meyer and Rosario in the next wave.

 

Getting a "proven commodity" like David Price would cost us more dollars and similar years, plus pull from our farm system. All for a guy who is already well into his prime (vs. Tanaka who is just about to enter it).

 

If the Twins want to go big I would rather they risk it on Tanaka than Price/Jimenez/Garza/Santana.

[Rosterman]

I think we are going to be surprised and someone is going to blow everyone out of the marketplace and offer $150-200 million over 5-7-10 years. Or teams are going to play it fairly safe, yet still offer $60-75 million in a shorter term contract. They only need to look at past performance (Dice-K) for example. It is an entirely different group of hitters over here, and any pitcher throwing multiple innings and NEEDING to go thru a batting order not just twice but three times to make their worth...well, he did it in Japan, but USA players are a whole 'nother ballgame.

 

Quite frankly, he is an agents dream. All teams have until Janaury 24th to put their BEST offer on the table...none of this :"here's my offer, get back to me before you actually accept someone elses's.

 

And whatever offer is made, it could fall fast and flat. It could be the best thing a team has ever done and the guy could pitch for 15 years!

[DuluthFan]

There is room for Tanaka on the Twins.

If the deal is long enough the posting fee becomes manageable as you prorate it based on the number of years in the contract.

While the per year dollars may look off putting at first glance, consider the current contract status of the roster. After 2014, the Willingham and Correia contracts expire ($12 million) and the positions could be turned over to prospects in the system at minimum salaries. The Pelfrey and Burton contracts expire the following year ($8 million).

Mauer is the only other position player signed for more than the major league minimum for multiple years. There are enough prospects coming up to fill the roster with young cheap players so that most of the payroll can be put into pitching. Keep in mind our pitching prospects that are expected to come up soon. They can replace the current starters as their contracts expire at a cheaper rate.

There would be risk to signing Tanaka, as there is with signing any other free agent. But you need to look at the upside as well. He could be a number one or two starter for the Twins. He currently has more upside than anything in the Twins organization. At worse what could he be? A number four/five? That is still better than most of what was pitching for the Twins last year.

[BigTrane]

1) A mea culpa: I "doubled down", opining that Rakuten would not post Tanaka, and I was as wrong as wrong can be. I will punish myself by drinking sorghum-based 'bai jiu' liquor thru Chinese New Year. Clearly, I misread owner Mikitani's dissenting vote against the new agreement. In hindsight, he needs to look forward and make his club an attractive signing option into the future. Smart guy. Me? Not so much.

 

2) From all I've read from Tanaka himself, he prefers the west coast, for obvious reasons. If that's truly the case, then I rank this way:

 

Dodgers, Mariners, Angels, D-Backs, Giants.

 

Dodgers have the deepest pockets, Mariners less so after Cano, but M's have a track record of NOB-MLB crossover success (as do the Dodgers, of course) = attractive.

Angels? Free-spending all right, but something in that org. and lineup just does not compute. Same for Seattle, though LA A of AA is more stretched than M's. D-Backs? Outside chance at best. Yanquis will wine and dine, and try to sell the Big Apple.

 

Flying in the face of common sense, I'll make a second prediction on Tanaka:

Dodgers sign him.

 

3) As for the Twins' interest, to be honest, I am still feeling the after-effects of the Nishioka experience (shudder). In the past few days, many analysts have been weighing in, concluding that he's no Darvish, and that his main asset is his young age (25). So this revelation seems more like a bargaining tactic to get Arroyo.

 

4) If that's so, then good on TR. If the Twins are serious, then I would welcome it on one front, but would like to see follow-through. At present, even with the recent signings, we are at roughly the same payroll as 2013. Spending to get back to a post-peak par isn't so impressive (especially with all the new money coming in). On the other hand, neither is this year's SP market.

 

5) Financially, if the goal is $100m again, then it could work, depending on how a deal is structured. However, this feels like just the high-risk FA deal the Twins have always been averse to, TR in particular. We’ll see about those stripes soon enough. Again, if this is a bargaining tactic, then great. If it’s a delaying tactic while looking to make a mid-season pickup, then fine- probably smart considering the roster.

 

While the Twins’ interest is a surprise, I’ll believe it when I see a deal.

[kab21]

DiceK is a horrible example of a Japanese pitcher that had a couple of good seasons and then fell apart in the US. He had xFIP's of 4.17 and 4.64 in his first two MLB seasons. His decline was entirely predictable even if he hadn't been injured. Tanaka isn't Darvish but he also isn't DiceK.

 

I would have no problem giving Tanaka 15-20M/yr for 5-6 years (plus 20M) based on how he projects in the majors. The whole deal would depend on the Twins being able to push payroll to 125Mish in 2-3 years. If that is possible (and it should be for a competitive team) then it would be difficult to spend that amount of money considering how many cheap pre-arb players are coming up to fill out the roster.

[Thrylos]

There is room for Tanaka on the Twins.

If the deal is long enough the posting fee becomes manageable as you prorate it based on the number of years in the contract.

While the per year dollars may look off putting at first glance, consider the current contract status of the roster. After 2014, the Willingham and Correia contracts expire ($12 million) and the positions could be turned over to prospects in the system at minimum salaries. The Pelfrey and Burton contracts expire the following year ($8 million)..

 

There is room for a lot of players on the Twins.

 

Numbers: Last season they made $215M. Add $25M for the new TV $. This is $240 M. 52% of that is $125 M. They are sitting around $80 M or so now. So they can spend about $40 M a season more without blinking. They can fit 2 Cano-type contracts.

 

But would overpaying for Tanaka would be the best investment at this point? I am not sure.

[DaveW]

Rank of pitchers I would prefer the Twins get:

1. Homer Bailey (+ extension)

2. Tanaka (16-18 mil a year)

3. Garza

4. Jimenez

5. Johan

6. Nobody

10. Arroyo

[johnnydakota]

um the high priced free agents pitched great ...Grienke and Sanchez , it was many of the 2nd tier starters who struggled

[johnnydakota]

I still don't quite understand the spend for the sake of spending argument, and that is what I feel is being argued here. I get that there's room for their payroll to be higher, but they just added 3 starting pitchers and have one more under contract already. I don't see why it can be construed as an indictment that they did so what appears to be a cost effective way. It's still a business at the end of the day.

 

That said, I don't see starting pitching as a need. Not any more.

 

So by adding a #3/4 type starter and 2 pitchers who posted identical 5.19 ERAs are what you think is building a winning staff? making a run at post season? Spend the money and add quality , even if you trade off that quality to add quality prospects, but to pocket 80+ in profits when your team has lost 95+ losses for the last 3 years is a joke, as we sit now we are 4 million dollars more in payroll in 2014 then we were in 2009....4 million

[Jeremy Nygaard]

It's been floated out there that the Cubs formal offer is nearly $160m not including the posting fee.

 

The Japanese link mentioned teams that made formal offers, but seemed to indicate there were more than just the five or six listed.

 

Though, in my mind, there is little difference in submitting an offer that has no chance and not submitting one at all.

[johnnydakota]

At this point , the best thing that could happen is to offer garza a front loaded 3+1 contract worth about 17 million per and then trade Corriea and some of the out of option pitchers,We have holes to fill in the outfield SS and catcher , to me trading for sardinas from texas and Stassi © from huston go a long way to add to the depth of the team and gives us better odds of fill holes we have. It would have been nice to make a Big splash with Tanaka, but now we need to fill holes with guys that can be part of the future .....Time to drink a coupla RedBulls and get back to work Terry

[Thrylos]

We have holes to fill in the outfield SS and catcher , to me trading for sardinas from texas and Stassi © from huston go a long way to add to the depth of the team and gives us better odds of fill holes we have.

 

What makes you think a. that Houston is willing to trade a 23 year old catching prospect under team control for 6 seasons and b. that Stassi, who has a grand total of 8 PAs above AA, is a better option than Pinto right now.

 

for reference:

Pinto's numbers in 2013: AA (453 PA): .307/.406/.490, AAA (75 PA) : .314/.333/.486, MLB (83 PA) : .342/.398/.566

Pinto's numbers in 2012: A+ (393 PA): .295/.361/.473, AA (52 PA) : .298/.365/.553

Stassi's numbers in 2013: AA (TL, 323 PA) : .277/.333/.529, MLB (8 PA) : .286/.375/.286

Stassi's numbers in 2012: A+ (CAL, 360 PA) : .268/.331/.468

 

It is clear (to me) that Pinto a. is a better player right now (I cannot tell about the future) and b. he has been pretty consistent and put very similar numbers at every level he was the last 2 seasons, which makes me think that his September numbers in the MLB were not a fluke. Also, the Texas and California Leagues are much more hitter friendly than the FSL, EL and IL.

 

Luis Sardinas is a 20 year old SS with 141 PA in AA (Texas League) as his highest level last season when he hit a robust .259/.286/.311. I cannot see any way that he is better suited for a starting SS this season than Eduardo Escobar who had a higher OPS than that in the majors and hit .307/.380/.500 in 188 PA in AAA (International League.) Even Danny Santana is more ready now ...

 

As far as the OF goes, I think that Hicks will be fine for 2014 and moving to RF in 2015 with Buxton taking over CF. No need for people who will be blocking either of the 2 and Arcia.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

I think you missed the key point:

 

Those moves could "add to the depth of the team and gives us better odds of fill holes we have".

 

Suzuki is on a one-year deal, so there is still a need ar catcher. Florimon probably isn't the answer and it could be argues that the Twins don't have a single long-term SS.

 

That's how I took it anyway.

[Zephrin]

If the Cubs really made an offer in the $160 range it's time to get out of the pool. I get why a team would pay $18-20 per year. That's #2 money for a guy that you hope pitches more like a #1, as long as you are willing to gamble on a guy based on projections from Japan (and I get that many on this board a skeptical on that point.) $160 means the Cubs, even if they offered a 7 year contract, are in the $23-25 per year range, which is pretty close to #1 money. Where is the upside for the Cubs on that contract?

 

Also, the "losing" teams in that sweepstakes could pay for 4 years each of Garza and Jimenez for that money (possibly less - especially after posting fee).