Interest in these two players?

[stringer bell]

Player A: 543 PAs, .812 OPS, 124 OPS+, 25 HR, 79 RBI

Player B: 533 PAs, .745 OPS, 105 OPS+, 16 HR, 65 RBI

 

 

 

 

 

 

Player A is the average for the Hammer in the last two years. Player B is Doumit, same calculation. My point is there may some hope for a bounceback for both players. The average of the past two years isn't bad at all, particularly Willingham.

[DaveW]

Yeah, I think the bounceback potential is certainly there. Willingham went from a 3.6 WAR player to a 0.0 WAR guy in a year, if he can get back to the 2.5 or so WAR he was putting up prior to 2012 I think that actually goes along ways in getting the Twins back into "respectability"

 

At this point, I don't expect really anything from Doumit. He needs to hit very well to be a worthwhile player at DH IMO

[TheLeviathan]

Or your averages might be weighed by a career year and an abnormally healthy year for both. We certainly should expect some improvement, but I'm not convinced it's going to be what some hope for.

[DocBauer]

I expect a bounce back from Willingham, even if not to the same production level as the year before. I hope for him to be almost a full time DH, despite some of the mumbles or a rotation. The whole team is just better with him making that transition.

 

Doumit could bounce back, but I see it with someone else, either by trade or release. Without him catching any longer, limited as those times might be, every time I make ot a potential 13 man roster for the Twins, in different configurations, I find him to be the 14th man. Now, injury or poor performance could change thins, but I see him elsewhere.

[JP3700]

Shameless plug, but I wrote this http://twinsdaily.com/entry.php/4720-Josh-Willingham-Breaking-(him)-down on Willingham last week.

 

Doumit was actually himself last year. The only thing that really changed was his BABIP. If his BABIP would have matched his career average, he would have had the same season as he had in 2012.

[jay]

Shameless plug, but I wrote this http://twinsdaily.com/entry.php/4720-Josh-Willingham-Breaking-(him)-down on Willingham last week.

 

JP, I think you're off on a few key points there. The change in IFFB% is huge, that's potentially 50 points of BA/OBP right there.

 

The swing rates worry me more. He swung at pitches out of the zone just the same, but swung at fewer pitches in the zone and missed more of them with career high SwStr% and career low Z-Contact%. Not good.

 

As you can see in his pitch values, Josh normally kills fastballs. That wasn't anywhere near true in 2013. It would seem possible that he was cheating towards the fastball to compensate for his injury and then also getting worked on off-speed stuff as his FB% was a career-low and he saw more change-ups.

 

We agree that he'll rebound (it'd be surprising if he isn't better to some degree), but my guess would put him closer to a .780 OPS than his .830 career average. I'll hope you're right though.

[JP3700]

The change in IFFB% is huge, that's potentially 50 points of BA/OBP right there.

 

 

This isn't accurate. IFBB% is in ratio to flyballs, not balls in play. It's not a great stat to look at anyway though. For example, in his good month of April, Willingham's IFBB% was actually 36.4%. The rest of the year, it was 13.4%, which is in line with his career numbers.

 

The swing rates worry me more. He swung at pitches out of the zone just the same, but swung at fewer pitches in the zone

 

Z-swing% doesn't tell you much in the way of decline. It speaks more to his approach. As a comparison Joe Mauer has a career 55.5% Z-swing%.

 

missed more of them with career high SwStr%

 

The SwStr% is something to look at, but it isn't completely out of line with his previous two seasons. 9.7% - 9.5% - 10.3%. This isn't a Jason Kubel type collapse of 7.6% - 11.0% - 13.7%. Something along those lines would worry me.

 

As you can see in his pitch values, Josh normally kills fastballs. That wasn't anywhere near true in 2013. It would seem possible that he was cheating towards the fastball to compensate for his injury and then also getting worked on off-speed stuff as his FB% was a career-low and he saw more change-ups.

 

I think you do have to take into account that the injury sapped his power and affected his timing. It was his left knee that was injured. Take a look at this and you'll get an idea on how important that kind of injury would be to his swing.

 

[video=youtube;O79UKaSk4Jg]

 

Unless you just think Willingham completely lost himself, I think it's easy to correlate the injury with the decline. Especially when you consider that he had a .944 OPS prior to the injury compared to a sub .700 OPS after. That kind of stuff doesn't usually happen overnight.

[jay]

Z-swing% doesn't tell you much in the way of decline. It speaks more to his approach. As a comparison Joe Mauer has a career 55.5% Z-swing%.

 

So his approach is now to swing at fewer pitches in the zone and the same number of pitches out of the zone? I'm not sure that passes the common sense test. His P/PA were identical to 2012. His BB% was in line with other career numbers while his K% jumped to a career high. If you want to link his injury to limiting what he can do and call that a different approach, I'd buy that, but would disagree otherwise.

 

Unless you just think Willingham completely lost himself, I think it's easy to correlate the injury with the decline.

 

I pretty clearly stated I agree that he'll rebound, so no, I don't think he lost himself. The injury can quite possibly be tied to a lot of it, but it's hard to pinpoint exactly how much. You're a bit more optimistic on him that I am or any of the major projection models. You're completely entitled to that.

[TheLeviathan]

That kind of stuff doesn't usually happen overnight.

 

From what I've read, it's not uncommon for 34/35 year olds to start crashing. That's where the curve really starts to crash.

 

I'd imagine bulky guys with long injury histories are even more likely to have this happen.

[JP3700]

So his approach is now to swing at fewer pitches in the zone and the same number of pitches out of the zone? I'm not sure that passes the common sense test.

 

 

His career Z-Swing% is skewed by his first 4 seasons in the league. His 2013 number is in line with what it's been since 2008.

 

His BB% was in line with other career numbers

 

Actually his BB% was up over 2% from his career mark.

 

while his K% jumped to a career high

 

I think this more speaks to what he has become in the last three years, with 2012 clearly being an outlier. His SwStr% went up in 2011, but so did his ISO. Trading strikeouts for power. However, it seemed like the knee injury sapped that power he relies on.

 

I pretty clearly stated I agree that he'll rebound, so no, I don't think he lost himself. The injury can quite possibly be tied to a lot of it, but it's hard to pinpoint exactly how much. You're a bit more optimistic on him that I am or any of the major projection models. You're completely entitled to that

 

This is fair. My projection was based on him being healthy, which is obviously not a given. That's why I led off that statement with if.

[JP3700]

From what I've read, it's not uncommon for 34/35 year olds to start crashing. That's where the curve really starts to crash.

 

I'd imagine bulky guys with long injury histories are even more likely to have this happen.

 

While this is true, there are usually signs that point to that crash. Diminishing bat speed and strike zone discipline being the usual telltale signs. When I broke him down, I only saw marginal decline which occured after playing through an injury.

 

He could easily have hit the DL, had his surgery, and returned when he felt healthy. If he had done this, I'm sure there would have been a different outlook on him going into this season. Instead he continued to play for 2 months only to rush back from knee surgery.

 

I understand that his age is tied to his health, which is also tied to his performance. What I was stating is that if he starts the season healthy, signs point to him maintaining his performance to his career norms. This wasn't just a case of him declining due to age, this was a case of him playing through injury.

[Thrylos]

Player A: 543 PAs, .812 OPS, 124 OPS+, 25 HR, 79 RBI

Player B: 533 PAs, .745 OPS, 105 OPS+, 16 HR, 65 RBI

 

 

 

 

 

 

Player A is the average for the Hammer in the last two years. Player B is Doumit, same calculation. My point is there may some hope for a bounceback for both players. The average of the past two years isn't bad at all, particularly Willingham.

 

 

How do you average OPS+ in 2 years? Adding the 2 and dividing by 2 does not work (they have played in different ball parks in the 2 years and the league averages change annually for starters...)

 

Doumit is inconsequential right now, but Willingham is well in his decline phase. If his knees and back hold, he might be slightly better in 2014 than in 2013 but that's a big if.

[stringer bell]

How do you average OPS+ in 2 years? Adding the 2 and dividing by 2 does not work (they have played in different ball parks in the 2 years and the league averages change annually for starters...)

 

Doumit is inconsequential right now, but Willingham is well in his decline phase. If his knees and back hold, he might be slightly better in 2014 than in 2013 but that's a big if.

Went to BB Ref and used their number for Willingham's (and Doumit's) two years with the Twins.

[Dman]

Looks like the Braves agree with you Stringer Bell.

[stringer bell]

I'm not saying Doumit is all that, but he has some value. A switch hitter with some power with a lifetime OPS+ of 106 and someone that can play some at catcher is not devoid of value. I think we tend to go with "what have you done for me lately?" and presume that the likes of Diamond, Worley, Hammer, Pelfrey, and Doumit are all doomed to regress even more from good years in the recent past. However, we Twins fans are willing to take on guys who were bad last year--Lincecum, Hughes, Johnson--because they were good sometime before.

[Dman]

I'm not saying Doumit is all that, but he has some value. A switch hitter with some power with a lifetime OPS+ of 106 and someone that can play some at catcher is not devoid of value. I think we tend to go with "what have you done for me lately?" and presume that the likes of Diamond, Worley, Hammer, Pelfrey, and Doumit are all doomed to regress even more from good years in the recent past. However, we Twins fans are willing to take on guys who were bad last year--Lincecum, Hughes, Johnson--because they were good sometime before.

 

That is a really good point. I guess the old saying holds true, one mans junk is another mans treasure. Your analysis for Doumit appears to have been spot on because the Braves didn't think they could do much better for a bench bat that can play several positions if needed. Giving up a previously hurt soft tosser in their deep pitching farm wasn't going to hurt them at all for a year of Doumit while they get there catching situation in order.

 

I liked Doumit for the Twins when it made sense but I am glad they found a way to get rid of him as we start our youth movement.

[jay]

His career Z-Swing% is skewed by his first 4 seasons in the league. His 2013 number is in line with what it's been since 2008.

 

Actually his BB% was up over 2% from his career mark.

 

In one line, you dismiss a point by ignoring his career numbers (although the Z-Swing% in '13 was a career low and still 2% below the time period you cited, while only 2.5% below his career average). In the very next line, you dismiss a point by citing his career numbers. I'm not sure how that works, but all I was trying to convey is that the Z-Swing% is more of an outlier than his BB%.

 

I think this more speaks to what he has become in the last three years, with 2012 clearly being an outlier. His SwStr% went up in 2011, but so did his ISO. Trading strikeouts for power. However, it seemed like the knee injury sapped that power he relies on.

 

This probably holds water as his GB/FB rates also started declining at that time as he hit more flyballs.

 

Here's to hoping the Hammer his fully healthy and has a great season.