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Shocker....Orioles sign yet another ex-Twin

jokin

By jokin
in Minnesota Twins Talk

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jokin Wichita Wind Surge

jokin

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Baltimore inks Grant Balfour for 2 years/$14M. Is there a team in baseball that has ever been on as many former Twins as Baltimore has been in the past 5 years? Surely, there must be more guys on the current Twins roster that Duquette and Showalter surreptitiously covet? Make the phone call, Terry.

 

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2013/12/orioles-to-sign-grant-balfour.html

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jokin Wichita Wind Surge

jokin

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To be fair, they just set Alexi Casilla loose last month, so they had an opening for another ex-Twin.

 

Ehh... so there's an ex-Twins quota? They also cut Jason Pridie, so there's clearly room for at least one more.....:)

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jokin Wichita Wind Surge

jokin

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So they have Hardy and Balfour with maybe Valencia sticking around. How many ex Twins are still playing?

 

That wasn't the point of the original post, the Orioles clearly have taken multiple shots at ex-Twins, that the Twins organization gave up on and traded for crappy minor league RPs, or simply left for dead. The Orioles obviousy perceive that they see something worth taking a shot on to see if they can do better. The latest trade for Valencia, is an example of how you can extract hidden value from a guy that only got the Twins a low-ceiling (too old for) Rookie-Ball OF.

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The Wise One First Round Pick

The Wise One

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That wasn't the point of the original post, the Orioles clearly have taken multiple shots at ex-Twins, that the Twins organization gave up on and traded for crappy minor league RPs, or simply left for dead. The Orioles obviousy perceive that they see something worth taking a shot on to see if they can do better. The latest trade for Valencia, is an example of how you can extract hidden value from a guy that only got the Twins a low-ceiling (too old for) Rookie-Ball OF.

 

Every organization has taken on players released or sold low by other teams. Look at the Twins bullpen and 4th outfielders.

To use Balfour, now on his fifth team post Twin, as an example of a castoff is funny. Balfour is a case for the Twins being cheap by choosing to give him free agency rather than pay him while he was injured. It had nothing to do with the opinion that he was a worthless player.

Be mindful the Red Sox also gave up on Valencia and received about as much as the Twins did.Valencia had a career year last year and was traded again. Yet another overpay by Moore or you can view the trade as a trade for bit players coming off career years. Time will tell. Valencia was a failed position player when the Twins got rid of him. To reinvent Valencia as a part time player while with the Twins would not have been an easy task. Being traded for a low minor league player and purchased should have changed Valencia's opinion of himself. Valencia is the only ex Twin the Orioles have received anything for. The rest have been released except for Hardy. Hardy is the player they have got the most production out of. That fiasco is a different debate, though some will not let it be.

That any of these players were ex Twins factored into any decision by Duquette is absurd.

If there is a player on the 40 man roster that the secretly covet it would be a classic sell point in that player's career. It is a situation that Ryan has done well with when selling. It is hard to see Duquette overpaying. It is an unlikely scenario.

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big dog GCL Twins

big dog

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Calling Balfour an ex-Twin is a fun story, given the Orioles' history there, but it was nine years and four other organizations ago.

 

The lesson of ex-Twin, ex-Red Sox Valencia apparently is "never release a player until you've called Dayton Moore". I wish I could short the Royals- that's gotta be a profit opportunity until he finally leaves. The Twins got a player for him, the Red Sox got a little cash. The Orioles got a real player.

 

I really had high hopes for Casilla a few years ago and wondered if the O's would get something from him. That seemed like a good pickup to me, given the trivial cost. I wonder if he'll get another chance with someone.

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Brock Beauchamp GOAT

Brock Beauchamp

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I'm just quoting myself from another thread because making this quite-obvious argument doesn't warrant typing it again:

 

The only thing this trade tells me is that Terry Ryan needs to call Dayton Moore and say "Hey, ol' buddy! Let's make a deal!".

 

Giving up anything of value for Danny Valencia, a guy who had all of ~170 PAs last season and succeeded (again) based on an unsustainibly high BABIP of .339, is almost comical.

 

The only time Valencia has had success in this league is when his BABIP is well outside the norm.

 

Which basically means that Danny Valencia is good when Danny Valencia is lucky. Even the bulk of his homers just cleared the fence according PitchFX. He had a 1.079 OPS at Camden Yards and a .741 OPS on the road.

 

The only thing Duquette did right here was recognize that he had a player on the roster whose "performance" (all 170 PAs of it) was luck-driven, called someone less intelligent than him, and hood-winked that GM into giving him something for Valencia before that player plummeted back to earth.

 

Was it smart for Duquette to take a flyer on Valencia? Eh, I guess so, if only because the results worked out for him. But let's not confuse genius with dumb luck. There is no way Duquette could have predicted that Valencia would thrive in a very SSS by getting lucky. Because that can be said about any player.

 

Additionally, to combat the "the Orioles used him correctly in a platoon" argument, Valencia had an absurd .405 BABIP against lefties in 2013. Regression much?

 

It doesn't take much to see Valencia's 2013 season (again, all 170 PAs of it) as the fluke it is and how unlikely it is that he'll repeat those numbers in any way, shape, or form. The smartest thing Duquette did in this deal is realize how flukish his season was and usher him out of town before April of 2014. And I definitely tip my cap to him for accomplishing that task. And also for giving me license to laugh at Dayton Moore for another offseason.

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Brock Beauchamp GOAT

Brock Beauchamp

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I really had high hopes for Casilla a few years ago and wondered if the O's would get something from him. That seemed like a good pickup to me, given the trivial cost. I wonder if he'll get another chance with someone.

 

Casilla was a much better pick-up than Valencia from a risk analysis standpoint. Casilla posted multiple partial seasons with an OPS+ between 90-100. He was a defensive asset at an up-the-middle position. He was only 28 years old. He posted a positive WAR in most seasons of his career.

 

And Casilla failed. Sometimes, decent bets don't pan out while shot-in-the-dark risks like Valencia work out over the short term.

 

That doesn't mean Duquette was right to pick up Valencia and wrong to pick up Casilla. Luck cannot be predicted and sometimes, even the worst moves work out because dumb luck is a big part of this game.

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Otto von Ballpark All-Star

Otto von Ballpark

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Mostly agreed on Valencia, although his 2013 AAA numbers also show a big power spike. As bad as he was in 2011, if he could add just 40 points of SLG to that otherwise terrible line, he'd be around a 100 OPS+ hitter -- and that's not taking into account a platoon deployment.

 

Not saying I'd give up anything of value for him now, particularly if his defense is still poorly regarded, he's looking like a platoon DH vs LHP. Will be interesting to see if David Lough proves to be of value (solid year last year, but repeated AAA for 3 seasons and has some OBP issues).

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jokin Wichita Wind Surge

jokin

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Every organization has taken on players released or sold low by other teams. Look at the Twins bullpen and 4th outfielders.

To use Balfour, now on his fifth team post Twin, as an example of a castoff is funny. Balfour is a case for the Twins being cheap by choosing to give him free agency rather than pay him while he was injured. It had nothing to do with the opinion that he was a worthless player.

Be mindful the Red Sox also gave up on Valencia and received about as much as the Twins did.Valencia had a career year last year and was traded again. Yet another overpay by Moore or you can view the trade as a trade for bit players coming off career years. Time will tell.

 

Valencia was a failed position player when the Twins got rid of him. To reinvent Valencia as a part time player while with the Twins would not have been an easy task.

 

Being traded for a low minor league player and purchased should have changed Valencia's opinion of himself. Valencia is the only ex Twin the Orioles have received anything for. The rest have been released except for Hardy. Hardy is the player they have got the most production out of. That fiasco is a different debate, though some will not let it be.

That any of these players were ex Twins factored into any decision by Duquette is absurd.

 

 

"If there is a player on the 40 man roster that the secretly covet it would be a classic sell point in that player's career." It is a situation that Ryan has done well with when selling.

 

It is hard to see Duquette overpaying. It is an unlikely scenario.

 

 

"It had nothing to do with the opinion that he was a worthless player."

 

I don't recall anyone saying that the Twins thought that Balfour was a worthless player. Off topic.

 

 

"Valencia was a failed position player when the Twins got rid of him. To reinvent Valencia as a part time player while with the Twins would not have been an easy task." In reality, the onus is on Twins management to assess and maximize player value relative to their strengths and weaknesses. DannyVs career split: vs LHP OPS .879 vs RHP .629 And actually, it would have been a fairly easy task in figuring that out from his spotty performance in 4 years in the minors. Joe Mauer could have made a part-time platoon partner. Or they could have signed Eric Chavez for $1.5 M in 2011 like the Yankees did. Or, maybe traded JJ Hardy in a package for a better value than Jim Hoey?..... Say Brandon Inge, and have the Tigers throw in then-prospect Drew Smyly? These are just ideas off the top of my head, finding other ways to make the situation work better must certainly be out there, as well.

 

 

"That any of these players were ex Twins factored into any decision by Duquette is absurd." Except the fact that Wayne Krivsky is an ex-Oriole executive. And that they actually have been regularly acquiring ex-Twins off waivers or through free agency at an abnormal rate since JJ Hardy..

 

 

If there is a player on the 40 man roster that the [sic] secretly covet it would be a classic sell point in that player's career.

 

Except that every ex-Twins player that the O's have acquired up until Balfour have been at exactly the opposite, "classic" buy-low "point in that player's career."

 

"It is hard to see Duquette overpaying. It is an unlikely scenario."

 

Who said anything about trying to fleece Duquette? He likes moving personnel to shake things up, it's obvious from the waiver pick-ups and free agent signings that he is familiar with ex-Twins and not afraid to pull the trigger. I'm just talking about finding a willing trade partner and trying to get fair value and a mutually beneficial deal. That kind of deal can lead to an ongoing relationship when future interests intersect.

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jokin Wichita Wind Surge

jokin

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Mostly agreed on Valencia, although his 2013 AAA numbers also show a big power spike. As bad as he was in 2011, if he could add just 40 points of SLG to that otherwise terrible line, he'd be around a 100 OPS+ hitter -- and that's not taking into account a platoon deployment.

 

Not saying I'd give up anything of value for him now, particularly if his defense is still poorly regarded, he's looking like a platoon DH vs LHP. Will be interesting to see if David Lough proves to be of value (solid year last year, but repeated AAA for 3 seasons and has some OBP issues).

 

The O's made a pretty shrewd gamble. They just acquired 3 pre-arb years of Lough, who plays stellar OF defense, notwithstanding what he ends up hitting in the long run-- For 1st year Arb (due to make $1M+), Danny Valencia-- and they have already saved up to $16.5M that it would have cost them to retain a FA at the same position, Nate McClouth, for the next 3 years.

 

Kudos to Duquette if he uses some of those savings elsewhere. I'll repeat, if he liked Valencia in the hope of capturing lightining in a bottle, he should love taking a chance on Plouffe in the same kind of role in 2014.

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minn55441 Draft Eligible

minn55441

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Can anyone shed some light on this?

 

I was surprised last offseason when both Liriano and Napoli had their contracts changed (reduced money and years) after the physical. It was always my understanding that each of the teams has access to the players medical records and have physicians on hand to review those medical histories (including x-rays and MRI's) before they even start negotiating.

 

The only time that the contract should be off is when something new shows up. I think last year Frankie hurt himself in the offseason, while down in the DR. that was something new something that wasn't in his medical history. If the two sides agree to a contract and then the player gets in a car accident or cuts off a finger, I can see that as a change in terms, but this seems different.

 

In Balfour's case, I'm sure he had MRI's in his medical file that the O's had access to prior to the physical. They knew what surgery's he had in the past. I'm sure that they had up to date every. What could Balfour have done to his shoulder on the way to the physical? Was it a ploy to get him to sign for less? Did they change their minds? Did the Doctors really find something new?

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jorgenswest Cedar Rapids Kernels

jorgenswest

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He is on the Alex Burnett journey.

 

Teams shouldn't be able to claim a player knowing they are going to DFA him and claim another player. The hope is that they will go unclaimed and they are added to their minor league depth.

 

Two possible solutions.

 

Any player claimed in the winter must be on the 40 man (or 25 man if out of options) through opening day. Players during the season would need to remain for 60 days.

 

Another solution would be - given the same time frame, if the player is DFA'd and makes it through waivers they return to the original organization. For instance if the Orioles DFA Hendriks and he goes unclaimed, he would return to Minnesota off the 40 man roster.

 

Both solutions would prevent teams from claiming players that they know are not going to stay on their 40 man roster.

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Guest USAFChief

Guest USAFChief

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He is on the Alex Burnett journey.

 

Teams shouldn't be able to claim a player knowing they are going to DFA him and claim another player. The hope is that they will go unclaimed and they are added to their minor league

How is this a problem?

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jay First Round Pick

jay

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How is this a problem?

 

Players can get stuck in an unending loop of being claimed and DFA'd, without the ability to actually hit a roster and play baseball due to the time involved between each. Not so bad in the offseason, but not fair to the player during the season. Some good, easy fixes proposed there and in the link to correct it.

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2013/04/should-mlb-change-its-waiver-claims-rules.html

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