Deduno

[Riverbrian]

I continue to be surprised by the number of Twins Daily posters (who based on their posts in other threads) seem comfortable tossing aside Sam Deduno.

 

I'm not going to understand it but let's give Sam his own thread and see if anyone can convince me that Sam just doesn't matter.

 

Sign Pelfrey... Meh... It doesn't matter... It will only cost us Sam Deduno.

 

I don't understand it. He wasn't having massive control problems last year but everyone talks like he was.

 

He pitched 13 Solid innings for the Dominican Republic in the WBC. He was chosen to start against Team USA over Wandy Rodriquez and also chosen to start the Championship Game against Puerto Rico.

 

He held PR to 2 hits over 5 shutout innings. He kept Mauer and Team USA to one run over 4 innings.

 

After some time on the DL. He joined the Twins and exhibited decent control all year

 

After a rough 1st start against Detroit.

 

He pitched better than anyone we had and better than anyone we have signed for 2014... 12 starts in a row... 9 Quality starts out 12. With the Twins winning 8 out of those 12 starts with Sam personally going 7-3.

 

From May 29 to August 2... 77IP... 23ER... That's an ERA of 2.69!!!

 

After August 2nd... It was clear he was hurt and it turned out to be a shoulder injury. That can be a problem for a pitcher.

 

Unless his shoulder is still an issue.... How?!?... In Anyone's name can anyone casually make the statement that Sam Deduno is expendable... He doesn't matter or anything of the like.

 

Yes its a small sample size but how can anyone look at a guy throw a 2.69 over 12 starts... on a pitching starved team and say... no thanks?

[jokin]

I think a lot of us are at the point that anything from Deduno is just "found money", we happily spend it, and then never count on it happening ever again.

[TheLeviathan]

I'm with you RB....I don't like that we're casting Deduno or Worley aside for older, mediocre pitching.

[cmathewson]

He is fragile. But, when healthy, he is the best starting pitcher on the staff IMHO.

[Thrylos]

 

 

 

He pitched better than anyone we had and better than anyone we have signed for 2014...

 

Holy cow. Do you really mean this? How do you measure "better"?

 

ERA, W-L, QS ?

 

he has the second lowest FIP in the team, second in K%, close to last in K/BB and he is injury prone.

 

And what he did in the WBC and other exhibition games is akin to what people are doing in the Winter Leagues.

 

Add to that, that he is going to be 31, add to that, that there is no way he is ready by opening day after the shoulder surgery and....

[Riverbrian]

I think a lot of us are at the point that anything from Deduno is just "found money", we happily spend it, and then never count on it happening ever again.

 

But he's not found money... He's a living breathing Human Being who is working at his chosen profession and starting to see his hard work paid off. 4.44 ERA in 2012 wasn't overally special but he had his stellar moments and he was giving up less than a hit an inning.

 

I remember discussions on Twins Daily saying "if he could just lower his walk rate by half"

 

Well... He cut that walk rate in half!!!

 

ERA 2.69 over 12 starts before getting hurt.

[Thrylos]

I'm with you RB....I don't like that we're casting Deduno or Worley aside for older, mediocre pitching.

 

Worley is a different story but,

 

Deduno is 30 and will turn 31 during the season

 

Pelfrey is 29 will turn 30 soon

Hughes is 27 and will turn 28 during the season

Nolasco turned 31 3 days ago

 

Where do you see the "older, mediocre" pitching?

 

All 3 are better than Deduno (who pitched less than 200 career innings in the majors) and only Nolasco is months older

[TheLeviathan]

Worley is a different story but,

 

Deduno is 30 and will turn 31 during the season

 

Pelfrey is 29 will turn 30 soon

Hughes is 27 and will turn 28 during the season

Nolasco turned 31 3 days ago

 

Where do you see the "older, mediocre" pitching?

 

All 3 are better than Deduno (who pitched less than 200 career innings in the majors) and only Nolasco is months older

 

Fair enough, for some reason I thought Deduno was 27. But I see Correia taking up a spot and I see a mediocre Pelfrey taking a spot. And we haven't even discussed Gibson yet, I just don't like how Pelfrey now makes two guys eating starts that aren't part of the future.

[Riverbrian]

Holy cow. Do you really mean this? How do you measure "better"?

 

ERA, W-L, QS ?

 

he has the second lowest FIP in the team, second in K%, close to last in K/BB and he is injury prone.

 

And what he did in the WBC and other exhibition games is akin to what people are doing in the Winter Leagues.

 

Add to that, that he is going to be 31, add to that, that there is no way he is ready by opening day after the shoulder surgery and....

 

Yes I mean it... LOL...

 

ERA... Yes

W-L... Yes

Quality Starts... Yes

 

FIP... K%... K/BB... Is like using the same stat over to make your point...

 

If a team is making weak contact but contact nonetheless. That's a good thing and Fielding Independent Pitching isn't your friend.

 

Tell Joe Mauer... David Wright... Carlos Beltran that the WBC is the Arizona Fall League. It was two big performances on two big stages.

 

The Age... OK... But I'm not saying we should lock him up to a 6 year deal.

 

And the Shoulder scares the hell out of me... But if he's OK... Why throw him away?

[dgwills]

I have always liked Deduno. He is fun to watch pitch. Unfortunately the injury and his high pitch counts worry me. I bet he would be great as a long reliever.

[Thrylos]

Fair enough, for some reason I thought Deduno was 27. But I see Correia taking up a spot and I see a mediocre Pelfrey taking a spot. And we haven't even discussed Gibson yet, I just don't like how Pelfrey now makes two guys eating starts that aren't part of the future.

 

I think that the Twins do not feel that Meyer is ready yet. I also feel that they want Gibson to be in AAA to start the season. I also have the feeling that Correia (and/or even Pelfrey) can be trade bait come mid season. They are both signed for $5.5M/yr contracts that might be a bargain based on what is going on these days.

 

Nolasco and Hughes are different story and do not belong in this discussion. Keep those 2, add Meyer, Gibson and another arm (Worley? May?) in a year or 2 and you are really in business...

[Bark's Lounge]

I am 100% in RiverBrian's corner on Deduno. If the season were to start tomorrow and Deduno is healthy - he is definitely not our #5 starter - he is somewhere between our #2 and #4 starting pitcher.

 

Sure, Deduno is 30, but sometimes 30 is just the beginning, he certainly would not be the first baseball player to put things together at that age and carve himself out a impressive career.

 

The 2013 WBC was Deduno's thunderous entrance to being a solid starting pitcher. His momentum is still building and I believe the best is yet to come.

[TheLeviathan]

I think that the Twins do not feel that Meyer is ready yet. I also feel that they want Gibson to be in AAA to start the season. I also have the feeling that Correia (and/or even Pelfrey) can be trade bait come mid season. They are both signed for $5.5M/yr contracts that might be a bargain based on what is going on these days.

 

Nolasco and Hughes are different story and do not belong in this discussion. Keep those 2, add Meyer, Gibson and another arm (Worley? May?) in a year or 2 and you are really in business...

 

Gibson needs to pitch in the big leagues, not AAA. And there isn't much room for him if he starts tearing it up down there. Worley also may not have a spot. They've back themselves into something of a corner thanks to Pelfrey and Correia.

 

I'm not sure they're worth that corner. Hughes and Nolasco are certainly worth it.

[Thrylos]

If a team is making weak contact but contact nonetheless. That's a good thing and Fielding Independent Pitching isn't your friend.

 

You can make the exact same argument for Pelfrey. Deduno's line drive % is 20.3%, Pelfrey's 20.8%. Pretty much identical based on sample size. Deduno's HR/FB rate was 10.3%, Pelfrey's 7%.

 

So really, hitters made weaker contact from Pelfrey (who happens to be more of a fly ball pitcher and if you have the likes of Willingham, Parmelee, Doumit, Colabello et al at the OF, you will end up having the second highest BABIP in the majors for pitchers who pitched more than 150 innings...)

[Thrylos]

Gibson needs to pitch in the big leagues, not AAA. And there isn't much room for him if he starts tearing it up down there. Worley also may not have a spot. They've back themselves into something of a corner thanks to Pelfrey and Correia.

 

I'm not sure they're worth that corner. Hughes and Nolasco are certainly worth it.

 

I don't disagree with you on that at all. I am just trying to get into Ryan's decision making process... FWIW, I thought that Gibson belonged to the majors last June.

[Badsmerf]

I'm going to save most of my ammo for a blog I have planned. I put myself on a temporary hiatus for a month after being badgered by glunn (really not joking). But I'm baaaack. Anyway, Deduno is fine to have on the 40-man and fine for the 2012, 2013, and even 2014 Twins teams to run out there. However, he is 30 and has 200 career MLB innings. He doesn't strike guys out and walks too many. Plus, he has a bad shoulder. He can't be counted on for 2014.

 

I wouldn't have been against letting that last spot come down to Deduno, Worley, Diamond. Problem is then if Gibson struggles or there is another injury. Deduno will still get his shot in 2014, it just isn't going to be handed to him... like what would happen on a real MLB team.

[Willihammer]

To me Deduno is exactly the sort of player spring training is for. I would have no problem penciling him into the 5th spot if he pitches that way again. But I think it would be unwise to count on it.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Sometimes it just "clicks" in a guy. Just pretend you didn't look at Deduno's minor league walk rates and you'll be fine. Odds are against him but I hope the Twins keep doing whatever they're doing.

 

Between age 28 and 29 Deduno had a very nice breakthrough, for sure.

 

Also between age 28 and 29, Randy Johnson had a very nice breakthrough as far as control. He went from a career 6 BB/9 INN to a sudden 3.5 BB/9 INN in 1993 and never looked back.

 

By the way, Samuel Deduno is unequal ≠ to Randy Johnson.

 

 

[Boom Boom]

I'm just not a big believer in Deduno long term. He was very good for a while, but I think it was a combination of fluke and the book not being out. Diamond and Albers looked very good for a while too.

[MNfan34]

I really like Deduno. I expect him or Worley to win the 5th starter spot.

 

That said, if they both clearly outpitch Pelfrey or say Correia, I don't think that Twins will stand in the way of that. Those guys are only making 5 million per.

 

I also think that injuries will clear this situation up. Either someone on our roster isn't going to be healthy, or some other team (not necessarily a contender) is going to have some attrition and will need to turn to the twins for cheap rotation innings.

 

The Twins are lacking an ace, but I don't remember a twins team with this level of depth of both proven MLB arms, fringe arms, and minor league arms waiting in the wings.

[Zephrin]

This is an instance where Terry Ryan is in a bit of a pickle. Not adding Pelfrey means he's banking on a lot of ifs - if Deduno's shoulder is healthy, if Gibson can figure it out, if Meyer is ready to make the leap, if Diamond or Worley can have a light come on. Suddenly he is criticized for trotting out AAAA pitching and not giving us a chance to win. Signing Pelfrey opens him up to criticism that he is arbitrarily not giving the "young guys" a chance.

 

After three consecutive years of significantly underachieving in the pitching department, I would rather see TR hedge this direction than the other. Too much good pitching is a problem that TR will happily take as a problem come June.

[drivlikejehu]

The Twins still have one of the worst rotations in MLB. Deduno is a non-entity... it's like a baseball form of Stockholm Syndrome around here- fans going nuts over AAAA pitchers that don't belong on a 75 win team (not that the Twins are that good yet). And getting excited about having a bunch of AAAA pitchers hanging around... how wonderful.

[Riverbrian]

You can make the exact same argument for Pelfrey. Deduno's line drive % is 20.3%, Pelfrey's 20.8%. Pretty much identical based on sample size. Deduno's HR/FB rate was 10.3%, Pelfrey's 7%.

 

So really, hitters made weaker contact from Pelfrey (who happens to be more of a fly ball pitcher and if you have the likes of Willingham, Parmelee, Doumit, Colabello et al at the OF, you will end up having the second highest BABIP in the majors for pitchers who pitched more than 150 innings...)

 

Interesting... Ok... You found similar LD% and I suppose I asked for that... However... If you keep going... You can find Deduno stats that compare to Cole Hamels and David Price when isolated.

 

His GB% was pretty good and I watched each start. It was weak contact.

 

In the end... Sam Hung Zero's.

[Zephrin]

Also, I don't think the Twins are afraid of pulling the plug on a failed starting pitcher, even if he is making a reasonable salary. We cut Livan and his $5 mil contract mid-season and we ate 1.5 years of Blackburn's $5 (or so) mil contract. If Correa or Pelfrey aren't getting it done and we have AAA guys that look ready to step in, I think they will make that call.

[Badsmerf]

I really like Deduno. I expect him or Worley to win the 5th starter spot.

 

That said, if they both clearly outpitch Pelfrey or say Correia, I don't think that Twins will stand in the way of that. Those guys are only making 5 million per.

 

I also think that injuries will clear this situation up. Either someone on our roster isn't going to be healthy, or some other team (not necessarily a contender) is going to have some attrition and will need to turn to the twins for cheap rotation innings.

 

The Twins are lacking an ace, but I don't remember a twins team with this level of depth of both proven MLB arms, fringe arms, and minor league arms waiting in the wings.

I do. It was 2011. Pavano, Baker, Liriano, Blackburn, Slowey, Duensing, with Swarzak, Hendriks in mix. Gibson was also very promising going into the season.

[JP3700]

I'm on the side of thinking that Deduno has the ability to be an MLB starter.

 

My concern is durability. In 10 professional seasons he's never pitched more than 150 innings. In 2012 he was on the DL for 45 days and finished the season with an eye injury. 2013 he started the season on the DL and finished the season having shoulder surgery. That's not a good trend.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I don't think I've read any "cast Deduno aside" sentiment here -- some are skeptical, some want to stash him on the 60 day DL to start the year, but I don't think anyone has advocated he be DFA'ed or any such thing.

 

That said, add me to the skeptic camp. The career low walk rate was awesome... the career low K rate, not so much. I've got no problem with making him the #5 starter if he's healthy, but if he winds up being your #2 starter performance-wise, you might have problems.

[MNfan34]

I do. It was 2011. Pavano, Baker, Liriano, Blackburn, Slowey, Duensing, with Swarzak, Hendriks in mix. Gibson was also very promising going into the season.

 

This year: Nolasco, Hughes, Correia, Pelfrey, Worley, Deduno, Swarzak, Diamond, Deunsing, Albers, Gibson, Meyer, Johnson (I guess?)

 

I forget about 2011 rotation. Maybe I have blocked that it out of my mind. Certainly more gifted at the top end and certainly a huge disappointment.

 

The organizational depth this year is far better. After Baker went down, slowey happened, and the Blackburn and Liriano were terrible, what did we have?

[howieramone1406390264]

Our favorite team has backed themselves into the too much starting pitching corner after 3 straight seasons of losing 90+ games. The FO has chosen to go with several familiar, veteran inning eaters for a season where a .500 record would be a blessing, awaiting several much anticipated top starting pitching prospects to filter into the rotation. To accumulate too much starting pitching, they did not add an albatross contract, nor did they touch the farm system. Said veteran inning eaters, may well be attractive trade chips at the next trade deadline and the one that follows. I have a hard time seeing the downside on all this.

[TheLeviathan]

Said veteran inning eaters, may well be attractive trade chips at the next trade deadline and the one that follows.

 

Possible, but unlikely.