Article: Twins and Pelfrey Agree to Deal

[Legend of the Arctic]

would have had Arroyo 100 times over rather than Pelfrey. Especially after they all but had him locked. Reports had Reds only offering Arroyo 1 year deal when he wanted 3. twins were standing with 2. He was going to come here!! But no, lets sign a has been who never was. He was never good in NY before TJ, how in the hell is he supposed to suddenly be worth a 2 year deal? Arroyo is a far better pitcher than at 37 than Pelfrey will ever be. Very disapointed with this deal, hope it somehow works out

 

"Has been who never was" would be a good description for Arroyo, who is 37 and has never been anything more than a run of the mill pitch to contact guy. Meanwhile, Pelfrey is just 30, and he's coming off a 2.1 WAR season a year after major surgery. I'd rather have Matt Garza, but Pelfrey is an acceptable pitcher.

[jcphitman]

For the record before I type anything else, I don't like the signing. Like anyone, I'd of rather had Garza. I'd even of rather had Arroyo. However, what's done is done and we have to move on with Pelfrey in the plans. We have to live with what they do. They chose to bring him back. We have to go with it.

 

So while dealing with it, let's look at some key points:

 

1. Pelfrey is NOT THE SIGNING this year. That title belongs to Nolsaco and even Hughes is better. Pelfrey is a far third when it comes to who we've already signed. Last year, I think Pelfrey was either THE SIGNING or 1a to Correia's 1. All they had to show us last year was Correia and Pelfrey. This year, they have a durable and proven Nolsaco, a young Hughes still in his 20's for the entire duration of his deal with hope of immediate improvement, and now Pelfrey. We also have an exceeded above expectations Correia in the second year of a very favorable deal. We then have a collection of options for the last spot with making them compete and truly the best man winning. Remember this team already did two better SP signings and broke their own external FA signing record on both of them, the Pelfrey signing is easier to swallow.

 

2. We should have no reason not to believe the second season of post TJ surgery won't be good to Pelfrey. As many people say, when you get to the second and third season of post TJ, you have a bionic arm. Pelfrey will not light anyone up with a better arm, but he will improve and hopefully touch 93. If he can turn into the Pelfrey of 2010 for us, it's a good deal.

 

3. The deal doesn't set the world on fire. It's essentially Correia part 2 (just with incentives). If Pelfrey can pitch like Correia did last year, we'll go into year 1 ahead of the deal.

 

4. We all know the Twins and Boras don't do business very well. From way back when Boras stole Travis Lee from us to get him to the D-Backs during their expansion season. Terry Ryan and Boras aren't the best chums out there. Boras has most likely been quite hesitant to work with us and our stingy reputation. Outside of Joe Crede, I can't recall a Boras client that was in the market that chose to work with us outside of Pelfrey. Coming to a compromise with Boras and signing one of his clients for multiple years could very well send a message to the super agent we're really open for business. Remember, he DOES represent Stephen Drew, who is STILL out there. I'm not saying signing Pelf will lead to Drew, but it might influence Boras to look at us more and even come to a fair deal for Drew. I'm also not saying Drew will light up the world at SS, but he's much more proven than Florimon. TR says we want offense. Getting Drew helps us with that offensive need and makes the SS position more attractive.

 

5. Pelf wanted to return here. Name a lot of FA's who truly want to come here after the losing we've been through. Nolasco? He came here because we offered what he wanted. Hughes? I doubt we were his first choice. I think he came here because teams like the Giants and Padres were set plus we were willing to give more years. Pelfrey? He pitched here through a terrible team last year (and he was bad), but he wanted to return. He should be better in 2014 than he was in 2013. He wanted to be here. Sometimes you need to bite the bullet and bring in people who want to be here or return here. It shows other players we're a chosen destination. I guarantee other players are looking at Pelf returning and saying maybe there is something about Minnesota. It at least helps us in the future he wanted to return and we brought him back.

 

6. As I said in point 1, it makes the fifth spot quite competitive for those who are left. It sends a message to Worley, Albers, Deduno, Diamond, and even Gibson we aren't going to tolerate tossing out. It could be argued some of them are better than Pelfrey, but not at this stage of their careers. Gibson SHOULD be better than Pelfrey as he now enters season two post TJ, but he needs to earn it and prove it. Pelfrey came back quicker and did more than Gibson. Pelfrey has the experience Gibson does not have. I hope Gibson grabs the bull by the horns and claims a spot permanently in the rotation. A spot is then opened for Meyer in 2015 when Correia comes off the books. We then have two cost controlled pitchers for a good while mixing in with vets.

 

7. If worse comes to worse, it's a short term deal that we can hopefully deal Pelfrey to a pitching desperate team if need be. It'll be easier to move him than Nolsaco and maybe even Hughes.

 

8. We could have been on the outside looking in when this was all set. The Reds are saying they'll offer Arroyo one year, but that may end up being enough. Arroyo likes the Reds over everyone else and could be using the Twins as leverage. If he goes, then what? Garza? The Angels will trump any offer we throw at him. They proved they'll spend like crazy for Hamilton and Pujols. Why not go pitching now? Tanaka? If he even gets posted and we all know the Yankees will go the 20 million and then more (unless they can't if teams worse than them can bid just as much and be guaranteed negotiating over them ... I'm unclear of the new system). If all of our options ran dry (which I see happen more than normal being a Minnesota sports fan), what then? We could have gone with what we had, but Pelfrey does offer more experience and a more proven alternative than Worley, Diamond, Gibson, Deduno pairing. Sometimes you just toss an offer out there and see who goes first. The Twins are loyal anyway. They were going to bring Pelf back before anyone else they were chasing.

 

9. Again, at least the Twins were aggressive. Name another off season when they went into the FA market and brought in three experienced names. Were they what we would have picked? Maybe and maybe not. However, they did something and we've been begging them to do something for years. They finally gave in and did something. Beggars can't be choosers.

 

I still don't like the signing as I stated before all of these points. However, it's not the worst thing in the world. We could have Maholm, Penny, or some other even worse pitcher at this point. I guess glass half full is better than glass half empty. Hopefully Pelf proves us wrong like Correia did last year with not as much pressure due to Nolasco and Hughes being here as higher level acquisitions.

[Thrylos]

I hear the name "Deduno" a lot. Methinks that it will be a (Fort Myers) Miracle if Deduno does not start the season in the DL. Latest reports having him long tossing from 180 feet. For comparison's sake, Johan Santana is ahead of him and he will lose a chunk of 2014. ST starts in about 2 months, I just don't see Deduno ready.

 

Another interesting thing is that there are reports out there that they are still after more pitching. I will not be surprised if the Twins flip Correia too before the season started to make the numbers work...

[jcphitman]

One more point signing Pelf early when Garza and Arroyo are still out there. We were going after AJ and Salty. Both went elsewhere. Now we're left chasing Suzuki and Buck. AJ and Salty are much better options IMO to pair with Pinto. TR most likely saw the C situation and decided his last SP signing was going to be quick so he wasn't going see a dried up market.

[Thrylos]

I am adding something to this:

 

Career numbers

 

Nolasco: 4.37 ERA / 3.76 FIP / 3.75 xFIP 1312.7 IP

Hughes: 4.54 ERA / 4.31 FIP / 4.31 xFIP 780.7 IP

Pelfrey: 4.48 ERA / 4.17 FIP / 4.50 xFIP 1049 IP

Correia: 4.49 ERA / 4.50 FIP / 4.41 xFIP 1251.3 IP

Deduno: 4.06 ERA / 4.67 FIP / 4.32 xFIP 192.7 IP

 

 

Deduno's sample size is ridiculously small to make any comparisons significant here. And since we are here, here is another one to add to the list:

 

Worley: 4.05 ERA/ 3.86 FIP/ 3.97 xFIP, 326.3 IP Much better than Deduno

[Reider]

The Twins are "strongly interested" in Bronson Arroyo, even after signing/re-signing 3 starting pitchers, as per the Score. Sounds like the Twins want to make sure that they aren't short at all on starting pitching in 2014.

[Zephrin]

Just a couple points:

 

1. Yes, Pelfrey is a "lock" to start the season in the rotation - barring injury. But don't forget that the Twins literally ate Blackburn's $5.5 million contract last year, so I would argue that both Pelfrey and Correa will have to perform to keep their rotation slots if there are AAA guys banging down the door. (Nolasco and Hughes would seem to have a longer leash based on dollars and years.)

 

2. I think everyone would probably be more comfortable with Meyer starting in AAA, and Deduno will almost certainly be brought along slowly this spring.

 

3. Injuries and spot starts will almost assuredly mean the Twins will need 8ish starters at some point. Nolasco, Hughes, Pelfrey, Correa, Gibson, Meyer, Deduno, Worley, Diamond are a lot better depth options than we have had of late.

 

4. If we somehow get to June with a wealth of pitching, someone can be flipped at the deadline. Right now it is December and all we have is a more promising pile of eggs than we've had for a few years. Let's worry about counting chickens after they hatch.

[Zephrin]

Also, if it was basically between Pelfrey and Arroyo, I think the dollars and years makes more sense for Pelfrey. Let someone else pay Arroyo $8 mil for his age 40 season.

[Bark's Lounge]

The last week it was hard not to envision this becoming reality.

 

I'm going to take a sunny-side up view point on Pelfrey's signing.

 

2014 Garza: After signing with the Diamondbacks Matt's mechanics become all screwed up and he posts a 6.83 ERA pitching in his home ballpark vs a 4.98 on the road.

 

2014 Arroyo: Just like Ponce de León's quest to find the fountain of youth ended 500 years ago - Bronson's quest ends in the 2014 season. After signing a 2 year, 20 million dollar contract with the Reds, he starts the season by having 2 quality outings, only to see the rest of his season go up in smoke as he pitches to the tune of a 6.25 ERA the rest of the way, giving up 28HR's in 118 IP.

 

2014 Pelfrey: Mike manages to pitch 208 innings for the season, posting a 3.79 ERA.

 

Although he only strikes out 128 batters, he is celebrated as a very important piece to the Twins winning 78 games in 2014.

[tobi0040]

Pelfrey was the Twins' best pitcher in 2013, in a season when he made a record time comeback from TJ surgery. Got his K% up to 17.9 in the second half of the season.

 

From 2008-2011 he averaged 195.7 IP a season. He hasn't even turn 30 yet. Very similar pitcher to Hughes when healthy. I expect a lot from him the next 2 seasons.

 

All in all a good signing. Not to mention that he is a great clubhouse guy too.

 

He was nowhere near our best pitcher. Deduno had a 3.60 era. This move is mind boggling. 5-13, 5.19 era, 1.50 whip should not earn a roster spot, let alone a raise and an additional year. For all this tj talk, he had a 5.00 era in august and september. Between deduno, gibson, and meyer we have guys making no money with more upside.

And my last point, war for pitchers makes no sense. Let me provide two examples. Ervin santana has a 2.4 war and had a 3.24 era. Pelfrey's was 2.1 even though he gave up two additional er for every nine innings? the concept of wins above replacement would imply that a pitcher that allows more runs than the league average (like pelfrey) would have a negative war. pelfreys era was roughly the same as the twins starters last year and we ranked 29 out of 30.

[Otto von Ballpark]

My guess is that while we're still technically interested in Arroyo, we might be in the same boat as the Reds, offering a one year type deal. And does Arroyo want to be on a team with 5 other likely starters?

[jmlease1]

Argh. Not enthusiastic about this move at all. I hope TR is smarter than me. Pelfrey did show signs of improvement in the second half of the season, but he still wasn't especially effective, no matter how many times Ron "See you in Chicago" Coomer raved about the movement on his pitches. At least it's only a 2 year deal? He'll phase out one year after Correia phases out?

 

What this also tells me is the Twins have little confidence that Worley and Diamond will have strong bounce-back seasons as starters. Deduno seems to have the inside track, especially with Albers having an option left. Maybe they'll try Worley/Diamond as a long guy in the pen, since they're not going to have a Rule 5 guy to protect?

 

I'd be much happier if this were a 1 year deal, but at least it's no more than 2. If we get Correia performance out of him it'll be a success, but it's just not the kind of move I like to see. Maybe they think they can package some of the guys who are out of options into a deal for help somewhere else?

[Otto von Ballpark]

I braced myself for Pelfrey being the biggest Twins FA acquisition of the offseason, so getting Nolasco & Hughes in addition to him should be fairly encouraging.

 

But I'm still a bit discouraged overall that these guys all seem to be in a similar group -- their upside seems to top out around league average, and Hughes & Pelfrey are both coming off replacement-level performances where they only averaged 5 IP per start.

 

As much as TR surprised us by finally opening up the checkbook, he still targeted the same kind of guys: generally cheap, lower interest, healthy but lower upside. Hope he found a diamond or two in the rough (although Nolasco's salary moves him out of the "rough" I'd say).

[Brad Swanson]

The more the time passes, the less I hate this deal. I do think that it means one of three things:

 

1. The Twins expect to move Kevin Correia before the 2014 season ends.

 

2. The Twins are not sold on Kyle Gibson for any part of 2014. Obviously this is true for Alex Meyer as well.

 

3. The Twins prefer starters who can give the team innings. Pelfrey was an innings guy before he got hurt. They'd rather have a guy who they know will give them innings than a guy who might have more upside (Deduno, Worley, even Gibson and Meyer).

 

This could mean that the Twins may have already given up on at least two of the Deduno, Gibson, Worley bunch. Obviously, the Twins have four guys written into the rotation and no one from last year's team really deserves the fifth spot. Although, Pelfrey didn't really earn one of the spots either, but you can at least point toward his injury as a major reason why.

 

If they move Correia, then they can give time to the young guys. If that isn't the plan, then they don't seem to trust the young guys.

[Joe A. Preusser]

Please let's stop with the tears for Diamond, Worley, Deduno, Hendriks, Albers, et al. When they were 4/5ths of our rotation I was as upbeat, positive, and enthusiastic as possible, but the hard truth is that the way they pitched last year they would struggle to find a spot on almost any MLB roster. They are/were Twins so I loved them, but you don't field a winning team with sentimentality. To suggest the pitchers we brought in will perform near the level we saw last year is plain silly. Our team SP ERA will almost certainly drop a full point. If the BP stays strong we will pitch well as a team.

 

We have one SP coming off the books per year for the next 4 years. That is awesome flexibility. Gibson will be given a spot when he is ready. Meyer will be given a spot when he is ready. In 3-4 years we could/will easily see the likes of Berrios, Gonsalves, Thorpe, and Stewert knocking on the door. Our BP should continue to be well stocked. We are set up for pitching success for the next half decade at least.

[MNfan34]

Really this is another low risk move. Signing a guy who has proven that he CAN be a legitimate starting pitcher over an extended period of time to set-up man money. Let's hope the incentives in his contract are tied to a hand licking cap and keeping his games under 4 hours.

 

I know people want to get big league experience for the Meyers and Gibsons, but why rush? It also starts the clock to their 15mil + contracts that they will get if they are as good as we hope they will be. When they are ready, it should be obvious. It's not really surprising that Gibson's less than dominance in AAA last year lead to disaster when he was called up. I also think rookie pitching + rookie catching could be a total disaster.

 

Injuries happen. Some team that is contending is going to lose some back end starters and will be looking around for band-aid solutions to get them to the playoffs with their bullpen intact. Maybe we see some deadline moves this year.

 

Best case scenario, someone steps up and pushes Pelfrey or Hughes to the pen next year or to another team in a trade. More than a few mediocre starters in the league have become excellent bullpen arms.

 

For these reasons I would welcome Arroyo on a 2 year or less deal too.

 

If all these guys pitch to their career average, our starting rotation will drop it's ERA by close to a full point.

[jokin]

My guess is that while we're still technically interested in Arroyo, we might be in the same boat as the Reds, offering a one year type deal. And does Arroyo want to be on a team with 5 other likely starters?

 

The Reds already have 5 other likely starters. On this team, he'd definitely be ahead of at least 4 others in the rotation. If the Reds are insisting on staying at 1 year, the Twins only leverage is in going all in for a solid 2 year deal. It would be a a real buzz kill if that's the only stumbling block to getting this done- the guy's a 200 IP machine, and would offer serious leadership in the preparedness, accountability, mentorship and toughness departments for this staff.

[jokin]

I'll repeat my very weak endorsement of the Pelfrey signing: I predict Pelfrey will have better overall numbers next year than one of the three veteran free agents signed in the last two off-seasons. He also throws a mid-90s fastball and is younger than both Nolasco and Correia. The cost isn't that high and two years isn't forever.

 

Two years isn't forever, it's just that whenever Pelfrey pitches, it just feels like forever.

[jokin]

Career numbers

 

Nolasco: 4.37 ERA / 3.76 FIP / 3.75 xFIP

Hughes: 4.54 ERA / 4.31 FIP / 4.31 xFIP

Pelfrey: 4.48 ERA / 4.17 FIP / 4.50 xFIP

Correia: 4.49 ERA / 4.50 FIP / 4.41 xFIP

Deduno: 4.06 ERA / 4.67 FIP / 4.32 xFIP

 

Paul Maholm: 4.28 ERA/ 4.18 FIP/ 4.14 xFIP

 

And Maholm's a lefty who is very tough on lefthanded hitters. And probably could have been acquired for the same or less money and/or years than Pelfrey.- and more tradeable, a perfect 5th starter.

 

Is there a bigger picture behind the scenes?- ie ,with other Boras clients and the Twins intersecting their respective interests (Boras is a walking conflict of interests). Was there anyone else ever even seriously bidding on Pelfrey's services?

 

I hope that Arroyo or Garza are still in play, and that some kind of deal is in the works for Deduno and/or Correia.

[shs_59]

THis signing has me thinking the Twins now obviously Prefer, Pelf to Correia....

 

And i think Correia will likely be dealt with maybe Doumit or Duensing and maybe a top 10-15 minor league talent for either a good pitching prospect or more likely a Good relief pitcher 7th/ 8th inning guy. (sean marshal ?)

[Kirbek]

If they still have their eyes on Arroyo, I can understand this. It takes the pressure off rushing young arms/keeps them controllable longer. I still would have rather seen them spend more on Garza though.

[Chance]

He just got 2 years and $11 million... he's in the rotation (at least at the start of the season).

 

I'm sorry I wasn't clear. I know that this move shows that he is in the rotation. I would like the move more if he was brought in to compete for a job. I don't believe that he has done anything to deserve a spot of the bat.

 

His history and stats are closer deserving of a minor league deal with an invite to ST than a 2/11 deal an a lock for the rotation. Again, I'm just annoyed and nit-picking. It's not the end of the world and I'm not going to blow up like I did when the signed Correia last offseason.

[Pius Jefferson]

Don't like the signing itself. Do like the idea that more of a focus can hopefully be placed on improving a very very questionable starting lineup.

[jokin]

"Has been who never was" would be a good description for Arroyo, who is 37 and has never been anything more than a run of the mill pitch to contact guy. Meanwhile, Pelfrey is just 30, and he's coming off a 2.1 WAR season a year after major surgery. I'd rather have Matt Garza, but Pelfrey is an acceptable pitcher.

 

Arroyo as a pitcher who NEVER misses a start and has 9 STRAIGHT YEARS of 200+ IP is not:

a has been,

a never was,

or a run of the mill.

 

He would set a nice example to the rest of the rotation on preparedness and professionalism. Pelfrey is only acceptable as the #5 man in the rotation and as cheap trade bait back to the NL should he start the season strong.

 

Arroyo career: 4.19 ERA 4.39 xFIP...... In 10 full-time seasons, 1 with an ERA over 5.00.

Pelphrey career: 4.48 ERA 4.50 xFIP..... In 6 full-time seasons, 3 with an ERA over 5.00

[johnnydakota]

The bottom line is this ...Terry spent 85+ million on 3 pitchers who in 2013 went a combined

22-38 with an ERA of around 4.60

[jokin]

The bottom line is this ...Terry spent 85+ million on 3 pitchers who in 2013 went a combined

22-38 with an ERA of around 4.60

 

Ya, but they're better than their numbers indicate.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Two years isn't forever, it's just that whenever Pelfrey pitches, it just feels like forever.

 

Haha you beat me to it. I was going to say "two years isn't forever, but two innings is."

 

Stringer bell, I agree we'll probably see Pelfrey outperform either Hughes or Correia whether through others DL time or maybe Pelfrey just comes on strong or whatever, so I will go along very weakly in favor of this signing too.

[johnnydakota]

Ya, but they're better than their numbers indicate.

 

We have to hope so.....Now if they can field and hit some they might have better records, but if not , they might have better stats and worse records

[Shane Wahl]

Before I get criticized for being negative, I will say that Kubel was a good signing.

 

This however, is atrociously terrible. I do not understand any defense of signing Mike Pelfrey to a two-year deal. And for those who say that he was the best Twins starter in 2013 . . . . Correia and Deduno were the two best. Case closed.

[jokin]

We have to hope so.....Now if they can field and hit some they might have better records, but if not , they might have better stats and worse records

 

We can only hope that TR doesn't come right out and essentially say "My work is done here". There's still dead weight to remove from this roster and key additions to be acquired. Ryan says he's "Open for Business", but he better be doing more than just "hanging the shingle out". Time to get creative, well, I'd settle for at least a little more original than, say, just bringing back a current Twin's brother-in-law, Jason Kubel. The Brett Anderson deal to Colorado shows that Ryan is a day late and a dollar short on what could have been a very beneficial and low-cost, low-risk, high reward deal. The Orioles love ex-Twins players, see what could happen by shaking the trees in Baltimore. The phone lines to all 29 teams and the relevant agents should be burning non-stop right into March.