Article: Rumor Mill Round-Up: 12/9

[Smcginnity]

I feel like if they are truly looking at signing Arroyo, something is going on. They may be looking to trade a significant prospect for a significant pitcher and make a run over the next two years with the youth movement coming. I mean, if they traded Meyer and Rosario, could they get a David Price? It would be a nice rotation:

 

Nolasco, Price, Arroyo, Hughes, and Correia/Deduno/Gibson.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Yup. Besides Dozier, Correia has to be the top candidate for some negative regression in 2014.

 

From the opposite aspect, I'm still hoping that Hughes brings significant positive regression to the mean.

 

Correia might regress but if he does, it probably won't be much (provided he's healthy). His FiP and xFiP weren't statistical anomalies last season. He pitched himself to a league average-ish season and his stats reflect that.

 

As for Dozier, he could certainly regress power-wise but if his adapted stance is legit (and it appears it is, he played well for 3+ consecutive months), any power losses could be offset by an uptick in BABIP (.278 last season). His BB% was solid, which is a good sign that he wasn't just getting lucky at the plate in 2013... He made legitimate progress. Given his awful start to 2013 and how much it dragged down his season numbers, it wouldn't surprise me one bit if his overall 2014 stat line is similar or even a slight improvement.

[Siehbiscuit]

A signing of Arroyo to a 3 year deal isn't a terrible thing (although I'd prefer shorter). He really isn't blocking anyone and Correia is gone after this year. As much as I would LOVE to see Gibson and Deduno become who we think they can be, Gibson has yet to show he can be do it at the MLB level and Deduno is 31 and has just now started to figure it out. Also, what if Hughes can't hack it any better than his NY numbers and is moved to the bullpen? There is a lot of uncertainty still in the rotation and we are still hanging on hope.

 

o in 2015 we could be looking at Nolaso, Hughes, Arroyo, Meyer and ???? (Gibson, Deduno)? Arroyo is who he is and will eat a ton of innings for the Twins. Hughes has MUCH more upside, but he could bust a lot easier then Arroyo, too.

[TheLeviathan]

Sign a bunch of guys you throw enough against the wall something might stick.

 

The problem is the 40 man constrains you. You can't just sign 20 guys and hope 5 work out. Your pile of 20 will whittle before you even get to start throwing them at the wall.

 

At this point the team has a lot of weight on the 40 man roster that is redundant. Some things need to get cleared out.

[Winston Smith]

The problem is the 40 man constrains you. You can't just sign 20 guys and hope 5 work out. Your pile of 20 will whittle before you even get to start throwing them at the wall.

 

At this point the team has a lot of weight on the 40 man roster that is redundant. Some things need to get cleared out.

 

I see the problem not with the 40 man but with a lot of guys that don't belong there. We've lost a lot of games the last 3 years clearly a lot of these guys just aren't good enough to worry about.

[TheLeviathan]

I see the problem not with the 40 man but with a lot of guys that don't belong there. We've lost a lot of games the last 3 years clearly a lot of these guys just aren't good enough to worry about.

 

I totally get your sentiment, but we're stuck with Johnson now. You don't want to lose Worley for nothing. Same with Deduno. Darnell and Gibson are young. Diamond shouldn't be tossed aside. So yeah, dump Albers I guess but it would feel like a bit of a waste if some of these guys (who have potential to significantly rebuild value) were lost for nothing.

[Major League Ready]

I totally get your sentiment, but we're stuck with Johnson now. You don't want to lose Worley for nothing. Same with Deduno. Darnell and Gibson are young. Diamond shouldn't be tossed aside. So yeah, dump Albers I guess but it would feel like a bit of a waste if some of these guys (who have potential to significantly rebuild value) were lost for nothing.

 

I wonder if they are willing to DFA Hendricks, Albers, and Diamond while taking whatever they can get. Does not seem like TR. Could it be they have something already in place to move one or more of the above for prospects that are a couple years away. That seems like a viable scenario. There must be something else going on. It should be an interesting couple of weeks. Man, I hope they don't give Arroyo 3 years.

[mudcat14]

I don't have a big problem with 3-years for Arroyo if it's front-loaded or has a reasonable buy-out as insurance for sharply declining performance. Our starters have been sh*t for so long, it's refreshing to see the Twins charging so hard into a potential solution.

 

Arroyo, Nolasco, Hughes & Correia would reasonably lock up about half of the 1400 or so innings (barring injury, of course) that the Twins will rack up next summer. Realistically, Deduno, Gibson, Diamond, Meyer & Worley (among others) plus the bullpen should be able to cover the remainder without having to send someone out there who isn't ready to go. As much as anything over the past several seasons, I think our biggest pitching problem has been making guys try to assume roles they either weren't ready or weren't capable of filling.

 

An Arroyo signing can't hurt, unless it hamstrings us in salary a couple years down the road.

[JP3700]

I've read hundreds of posts on how bad Doumit is behind the plate. How bad he is at pitch framing. Yet, I see all this support for John Buck.

 

Here's an article on pitch framing..

 

http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/eye-on-baseball/24280722/leaderboarding-the-best-catchers-at-framing-pitches-in-2013

 

As you can see, Buck tops the list of worst pitch framers in baseball.

 

Buck has been worth -58 DRS (Defensive Runs Saved) in about 8600 innings behind the plate. Doumit has been worth -16 DRS in about 4300 innings.

 

Just some food for thought.

[Tibs]

I would prefer if the Twins didn't sign Arroyo, but I wouldn't hate it if we did (unless he pitches terribly).

[JP3700]

Buck seems to be just below average defender (dwar slightly minus and throws out runners in the last three years at league average but over his career is 3% below league average).

 

*Perhaps Twins Daily could run an article on dwar and rf to make these stats more useful. I can read them but I don't necessarily understand their true relevance.

 

dWAR for catchers is still one of the hardest thing to quantify. Pitch framing hasn't been added to their value, although that should be coming soon.

 

Then you have to think about the catcher's ability to call a game and manage a pitching staff. Unfortunately, even though we know there is value, it is impossible to quantify. But you can just imagine how much more value Yadier Molina would provide over a Josmil Pinto, in this aspect of the game.

[johnnydakota]

He doesn't need a mentor, he needs AAA

 

I tried AA but i got lost after 5 steps:th_alc:

[spoofbonser]

I don't get the "Buck to Minnesota" rumors. First of all, Joe Buck isn't even a catcher, it's Tim McCarver; Joe Buck is a play-by-play announcer. And Secondly, Tim McCarver is way past his prime at 72. If they are looking for an "old-timer" catcher, I'd suggest Bench.

 

Also, I'd like to see Garza back in Minny.

[TheLeviathan]

I wonder if they are willing to DFA Hendricks, Albers, and Diamond while taking whatever they can get. Does not seem like TR. Could it be they have something already in place to move one or more of the above for prospects that are a couple years away. That seems like a viable scenario. There must be something else going on. It should be an interesting couple of weeks. Man, I hope they don't give Arroyo 3 years.

 

Yeah that goes back to my first post, I'm a bit confused as to what the endgame is. Especially since none of these starters project well as a conversion to the bullpen. But you're right, it doesn't sound like Ryan.

[DocBauer]

dWAR for catchers is still one of the hardest thing to quantify. Pitch framing hasn't been added to their value, although that should be coming soon.

 

Then you have to think about the catcher's ability to call a game and manage a pitching staff. Unfortunately, even though we know there is value, it is impossible to quantify. But you can just imagine how much more value Yadier Molina would provide over a Josmil Pinto, in this aspect of the game.

 

I really like these thoughts. I know baseball is a game of numbers and measurements. And perhaps I am just too old school, but while I find some of today's new measurement tools interesting, and sometimes useful to be sure, I believe it's very hard to quantify certain things. Using new-age numbers on a C for instance; caught stealing isn't entirely reflective of a C's full ability. It is also a reflection of number of attempts, number of runners on base, and the staff in question and their ability to hold runners. Even what is thrown. A staff that throws harder or softer as a group may allow said C to throw more men out, for instance. A more experienced staff may hold runners on better.

 

I think there is real value in a solid C that can't always be quantified by these new statistics. Is pitch framing a true tell-all? Is it a tried and true quantified? I have some doubts about this. A quality defensive C is a lot like a basketball PG or the center of an offensive line, how do they make calls, how do they lead the team? A quality C is like that. Do they call a good game, set a solid target, help run the defense, collect the pitcher when he slips out of his groove. There aren't really an stats for those kinds of things.

 

That being said, the Twins front office, scouts, coaches and even players probably have a lot better idea on those precepts than I do, or most of us. I don't know that Buck would be a bad signing, he does have some pop, but his offense does have some measure ales I'm not thrilled with. And everything eve said about Molina is very positive defensively, game calling, etc. And I think I like that idea more. Isn't Hernandez also available? And one thing I like about a signing of either of those two is the are Latin. The one thing I feel the Twins are missing out on is a strong Latino coach on staff. Or in this case, possibly a Latino veteran to work with younger players, as well as Pinto.

[DocBauer]

As to a possible signing of Arroyo, I have a few thoughts there as well.

 

The first being, I am highly in favor of adding a quality LHSP to our mix. Which is why I find a possible trade with the A's for Anderson so intriguing if we don't pay through the nose. After all, despite talent and real potential, there is recent track record, injury affecting such, as well as contract. As such, there is risk involved, as well as potential high reward, but it has t be measured, and the cost in minor talent simply can't be too great or I'd pass. A flyer on Johan, I think, is not only intriguing, but also a low risk and decent reward. Not going to say high reward because I simply think that ship has sailed.

 

Secondly, I was against signing Arroyo as a primary signing. He really isn't that any longer. The solid, and potentially very good Nolasco and even younger and tantalizing Hughes have taken care of that. But depth of any kind, especially starting pitching, is always a good thing for many reasons, including injury, poor performance, competition, and just giving yourself a chance to legitimately win every day. Now, Arroyo at 2 years, or cheaper and easier or take or buy out 3rd year, provides us with that. Even at age 37, he proved himself to be a solid SP. Even if you allow a raise in ERA of say half a run per game moving t the AL, you still have him pretty much at his career mark of 4.19ish. He's allowed about a hit per inning in his career, and despite modest stuff, has maintained a career K/BB ratio of 2.37-1. He's also averaged 30 plus starts and 200 innings per year. Even with some regression, those are solid and dependable numbers, and better that most of what we've seen trotted out to the mound the past couple of years.

 

Point number three, if we sign him, and we have the finances to do so, it pushes Correia to #4 in the rotation, or further, depending on the health and performances of Gibson, Deduno, Worley and Diamond. It might even make Correia immediately tradeable for additional talent. And that further depth in our rotation does nothing to stymie the progress of Meyer or May in any way as Arroyo will not be long term, and one way or another, Correia is gone after this year. And I will state again for the record, while I have the utmost confidence in Gibson, and his future, it wouldn't be the worst thing if he began the year in AAA. Not saying I want him to, or that he will, but last season was his first year following TJ surgery. And we all know it can take a little time to get endurance and feel back for your pitches. I know we all hate the setback Gibson had, we are all very anxious for him to flex his talent, no more so than the Twins and he himself, and reports last season had him not only feeling better than ever, but throwing as hard or harder than ever. But would a month or so to start the season pitching every fifth day instead of being passed over at the MLB level be such a bad thing in the long run?

 

Lastly, I just have to say, isn't it refreshing, and a bit odd at the same time, that there is any consternation amongst us fans that our Twins might be signing a THIRD proven, quality FA starting pitcher to add to our staff?

[Marta Shearing]

Not many rumors in this thread.

[cmb0252]

Not many rumors in this thread.

 

Outside of Arroyo there were not a lot of Twins rumors today. Heck, after the abnormally active weeks heading up to the Winter Meetings it would surprise me if this is a very boring week.

[spoofbonser]

"It might even make Correia immediately tradeable for additional talent."

 

I'll give you (24) 1989 Gary Sheffield Donruss Rated Rookie cards and an unopened 1894 Topps (20) card pack, pink dried up bubble gum stick included, for Kevin Correia.

#likelytalentavailableforyouroverpaidcrappystarterimeaninningseater

[goulik]

1894 Tops pack? I'm in. Can't wait to put that old gum in my mouth!!

[B Richard]

Per MLB Trade Rumors: "Twins in, Orioles out on Rajai Davis."

 

Link: http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2013/12/rajai-davis-nearing-deal.html

 

Apparently we are willing to commit multiple years to Rajai, Orioles no longer in the bidding.

[drock2190]

Per MLB Trade Rumors: "Twins in, Orioles out on Rajai Davis."

 

Link: http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2013/12/rajai-davis-nearing-deal.html

 

Apparently we are willing to commit multiple years to Rajai, Orioles no longer in the bidding.

 

I like this. He hits lefties very well and is a good pinch runner.

 

Perfect 4th outfielder for the right price.

[TheLeviathan]

Rajai Davis is probably our starting LF and lead-off hitter is my guess.

[mudcat14]

I like this. He hits lefties very well and is a good pinch runner.

 

Perfect 4th outfielder for the right price.

 

What is the price? He made $2.5m each of the past two years. Seems like an extravagant insurance policy to safeguard against failures by Willingham, Presley, Arcia, Hicks, Mastriano, Parmelee, Colabello, et al.

[Shane Wahl]

About various rumors:

 

Now I like Arroyo, but not three years. I would rather overpay for one year with an option, and hope he does well to be traded at the deadline (Correia too).

 

John Buck. I have zero interest in him. It's as bad as Navarro. Give the job to Pinto and Herrmann.

 

Davis. I don't like it unless: Willingham is seriously being shopped, or the Twins are paying to get Clete Thomas+++ instead of hoping on Clete Thomas types, or Mastro is going to be DFAed (and the last two have to be taken together, actually). He's fast and steals bases, but he is just a terrible leadoff option. Probably worse than Presley in that regard. But I am one who thinks they should have Hicks starting in CF and leading off against lefties, so who the hell am I to judge?

[twinsfan34]

Rajai is a .294 lifetime hitter against Lefties...

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?id=davisra01&year=Career&t=b

 

He's a top 10 base stealer in MLB.

 

For $2.5 Mil? Absolutely.

 

He actually had positive dWAR last year too.

[Trevor0333]

With still being interested in another SP & now Davis too. It seems like they are intent on the likes of Gibson, Meyer, Hicks, & Parmelee spending another year at AAA. Hoping the players to force the issue with their play. Only Pinto really showed he was ready to at least start the year in the majors.

 

I like Davis as a CF with Pressly moving to LF. Davis for some reason LF has been his worst position by far defensively. Arcia's your RF with Hammer the full time DH.

 

Bucks role maybe overrated from a production state. Having a vet to work with him on the advance scouting, working with the SP game plan, setting up the right routines etc all those little things that can really help with the C position especially can't hurt if you have the $. Pinto could really benefit from that. I also think that is a role they should put on Mauer though.

[DocBauer]

Shane, right there with you on Pinto and Herrmann at C. Not only for the future, but honestly, what out there is better? Someone who can't hit and is at the end of their career, or a couple of talented youngsters, one who seemingly can hit, and another who has teased and shown enough to think he can.

 

I think Mastro and Presley are solid defensively, and can form an OK platoon until Buxton arrives. Not sure about Mastro regaining what he showed us a year ago though, which is why I like the Davis signing.

 

ALL in favor of Hicks in CF next year. Just not sure he's ready for lead off, or a portion of it. Love to be proven wrong.

[Erock]

If Davis is signed, then I believe Doumit should be on his way out. Davis improves our OF defense which we desperately need. Parmelee is the big question though. He likely spends some time in the OF and pinch-hits for the likes of Florimon, Presley and Davis. I don't think we have the playing time left to see if he develops further. I think he has to take his bench role and will have to take advantage of any playing time due to injuries and the like if he wants to prove himself.

 

If Doumit is kept, Parmelee likely has no spot on the team. If Doumit really isn't catching anymore, then it's even more easy to prefer Parmelee as the bench option.

[Riverbrian]

Rajai Davis... We need speed and he has it. Bring him to Minnesota is what my brain is thinking.