Article: Twins To Sign Phil Hughes

[raindog]

I'm pretty pumped. The rotation might just be respectable.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

I'm also happy for the signing but worried about the years.

 

Posters on previous threads thought Hughes might just want one year to reestablish his credentials, then hit the market again with confidence, but that Hughes asking for two years seemed borderline since he didn't have the numbers to command a longer deal like that. That made sense to me. So three years is a surprise -- also seems like an admission that the Twins are not in the business of developing young pitchers right now. Also makes me a little uneasy.

 

But at least TR is addressing some needs this offseason. I'll take it.

[mk]

I like the move. The situation reminds me a lot of Kyle Lohse. Good stuff but never really put it together with the Twins. Lohse moved on at age 27 and with the change of scenery had a very good career.

[Brandon]

The big question about Hughes is going to be his durability. THe other issue would be the HRs he gives up which is going to be helped by the fact he is in target field and the last 2 years he averaged 2.2 and 2.6 walks per 9 innings. Hughes still throws what 92.4 MPH and K's 7.6 per 9.

 

The big concern looking into next season is do we have a good enough swingman available to start when we need a 6th starter when someone gets hurt and more importantly now is how much is our offense going to improve next year as the Twins were 14th in the 15 team AL last season in runs scored.

[Brandon]

Also Pierzinski K's in only 15% of his AB in his career so that will help lower the team K total a lot as we were historically bad in that department last year.

[TheLeviathan]

There was no precedence for this club to be this active....it's such a refreshing sight. This is a perfect deal IMO - I was someone who thought the more years the better just because of the upside the guy has to pitch well beyond his price tag.

 

Great work by Ryan.

[TheLeviathan]

So I'm trying to think what the most obvious moves to keep the 40 man freed up would be. Is it to deal Correia and take Johnson off?

 

I can't imagine the Twins abandoning Diamond, Worley, or Deduno - all three will have to make the staff or be cut. Diamond isn't a candidate to be a bullpen arm (terrible splits) and I doubt they want to move Deduno back there with his erratic control.

 

The only other possibility is we see the Twins deal someone like Burton for a young arm and promote Swarzak, but then we have those recent comments about Duensing and Swarzak coming prepared to start?

 

All that said - It's so, SO nice to be talking about how we'll clear the filler off our roster rather than talking about how we're adding to it.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Hughes had a 5.19 ERA (-0.7 rWAR) this year, 4.85 ERA over the last 3 years. In 2 of the last 3 years, his value has been below replacement level. Why guarantee $24M/3 years to a guy like that, on the slight chance that a change of scene will cure him?

 

Last winter, everyone was so pissed about Correia's $10/2 deal. This year, Ryan is throwing even bigger deals at below-average pitchers, and most everyone seems thrilled to see him spend the money. On guys who are not really GOOD, but NEVER MIND! I don't get it.

So you don't buy the optimism that his stats are relative to the park and division that he played in?

Garza was supposed to be the top available pitcher with a 4.35 era for the rangers and a 3.17 era for the cubs, 13 starts a piece. Sure the rangers were the second half of the season and the cubs were the first, but it also points to competition and park.

[Brandon]

I think they will keep the players they have options on and let one of the 3 out of option pitchers go or get dealt for minor league filler with potential upside. I say this because we could potentially loose 3 players in the spring if they don't make the roster which is kindof a lot.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Hughes had a 5.19 ERA (-0.7 rWAR) this year, 4.85 ERA over the last 3 years. In 2 of the last 3 years, his value has been below replacement level. Why guarantee $24M/3 years to a guy like that, on the slight chance that a change of scene will cure him?

 

Last winter, everyone was so pissed about Correia's $10/2 deal. This year, Ryan is throwing even bigger deals at below-average pitchers, and most everyone seems thrilled to see him spend the money. On guys who are not really GOOD, but NEVER MIND! I don't get it.

So you don't buy the optimism that his stats are relative to the park and division that he played in?

Garza was supposed to be the top available pitcher with a 4.35 era for the rangers and a 3.17 era for the cubs, 13 starts a piece. Sure the rangers were the second half of the season and the cubs were the first, but it also points to competition and park.

Because Hughes is relatively young and has better stats away from Yankee Stadium, I'm optimistic he'll be a better pitcher for the Twins that the Yankees. That would put him 1 or 2 in the rotation currently.

Is he going to be the next Cy Young? No. But I do think the Twins went out and got the two best Free agent pitchers that I could reasonably expect them to.

[Larsbars08]

I like this because now I think the Twins will give guys like Meyer and May more time to develop in the minors. Meyer probably already has major league ability but still needs to work on consistency and command, and letting him figure things out in AAA should be more than alright. Having him force his way to the Majors is a great problem to have. Hopefully May has something click (I'm not holding my breath). It also allows the Twins to take it slow with some of these low minors pitching prospects (Berrios, Jorge, Thorpe, Gonsalves, Stewart) and not have to rush anyone who doesn't force the issue. Hopefully they will go for upside and give Gibson the 5th spot in the rotation and give him a chance to prove himself. Correia, Nolasco and Hughes aren't world beaters, but this rotation should be significantly better, and I hope to see 600 innings between the three of them.

[mk]

I don't get the concern with the 40 man. After 180+ losses over the last 2 years, I hope there's someone fans can live without.

[John Bonnes]

For those looking for a more critical take on the deal, Keith Law is providing it - if you have an ESPN subscription. Here it is. He raises some interesting points, specifically about Hughes' pitching mix and how he is hit hard by tight-handed hitters.

 

http://t.co/xy1bjmy9AJ

[Dance with Disco Dan]

I am not as hopeful as some others are that Hughes can turn around his career trajectory. The last three years have been pretty poor. But Hughes is relatively young and has a strong arm so, since TR felt he needed to add significantly this off-season, I can understand the interest.

 

I'd like the two pitching signings a lot more if they came when the club was further along in its youth movement. Adding mid-rotation (we hope!) types right now is not going to push the Twins up into contention. Personally, I'd have been fine if they saved the money this year, took their lumps again, and broke out the savings a couple years down the road. Of course, my preferred plan is problematic for both the club and the fans. The club has to worry about alienating an increasingly disgruntled fan base that wants to see a competitive team. And the fans have to worry that the savings stay in the owners' pockets never to be seen again. Here is my never-in-a-million-years-will-this-happen solution:

 

Start with a rebuilding team like the current Twins, Astros or Marlins operating at a payroll far below their normalized payroll because they are turning over their roster and acquiring assets. Right now those teams tell their fan base, "We're rebuilding but we intend to spend when the time is right." It's hard to take statements like that at face value and harder still to verify that teams live up to their pledge. But what if a money-where-his-mouth-is owner (like Mark Cuban if MLB would ever approve a Cuban-type) paid the savings into an dedicated account that the fan base could view online. Imagine being an Astros fan and suffering through a season in which the team had a $20 million dollar payroll. You'd feel a lot better about management's intentions if you could log on and see $30 million waiting to supplement a normalized payroll down the road. I know I would.

 

Of course, there are a million and one reasons why that would be a bad idea for management. But its fun to think about.

[markos]

He returned to the rotation in 2010, where it has become apparent that he is a poor fit for Yankee Stadium. Hughes is an extreme fly ball pitcher, and right-handed, which makes Yankee Stadium’s short right porch his bane. His career ERA pitching in the two Yankees stadiums is 4.96, versus 4.10 on the road. The difference? He’s given up more than twice as many home runs at home.

 

The conventional wisdom that Hughes has struggled because of Yankee Stadium's short right porch is not correct. For his career (both at home and on the road), Hughes has given up home runs at a higher rate to right-handed hitters than to lefties (overall, 4.6% to RH, 4.1% to LH). His career opponent SLG has similar reverse splits (.438 for RH, .431 for LH).

 

I don't think that moving to Target Field will be the panacea for Hughes that people are expecting. Yes, it should provide some improvement; however, it doesn't suppress RH pull power very much, and RH batters have always hit Hughes well. Additionally, pitching in front of a Willingham, Presley, Arcia outfield could be very, very ugly. I think expecting a sub-4.00 ERA is very optimistic.

[Shane Wahl]

There are all sorts of factors involved in how players perform better or worse in some places and not others. See Burnett and Florida-NY-Pittsburgh.

 

Also, I don't want to sound like some rube, but I wonder if Hughes was looking for a place like MN to get away from NYC, given his devout Christianity (also of note about this is Kyle Gibson's piety, and maybe this will be a good bond for these two young, promising pitchers?).

[Shane Wahl]

So would Keith Law have also concluded that a two year deal for $24 million would have been excessive?

[TopGunn#22]

I love this signing. We're finally making some progress on having a major league "like" pitching staff. It's too much to hope for, but I would love to see Kazmir on a one year deal. We need a LH in the rotation. There will be injuries, guys that need to be skipped for one reason or another. I think we could still get something out of Worely this year. But instead of depending on guys like Deduno, Gibson and Worely to be healthy and contributing, this adds much needed depth to the rotation. If Meyer is ready come June, someone could always be flipped. We still need a SS. Not any on the FA market. Would Ryan trade for someone like Starlin Castro?

[pierre75275]

I like this much more then the Nolasco signing.I think Hughes has much more talent to outplay his contract then Nolasco does.

[Shane Wahl]

40-man decision should just clearly be removing Eric Fryer. Then Johnson. Then Mastroianni. Trading Burton and Fien would be ideal, but probably hard to do in the offseason.

[Shane Wahl]

I like this much more then the Nolasco signing.I think Hughes has much more talent to outplay his contract then Nolasco does.

 

This is pretty indisputably true.

[jmlease1]

I'm very pleased with this signing. A 3-year deal on a pitcher who still has upside and is only 27? That's a relatively low-risk for a market-rate contract. I would agree that if he's got an OF of Willingham, Presley, and Arcia behind him it's not going to go too well, but I think it's much more likely that Willingham is DHing and Hicks gets another shot at CF. And beyond that, we've got Hughes for 3 seasons...think what our OF may look like in years 2 & 3!

 

The K rate is a nice improvement and if Anderson can get a few things ironed out, pitching in MN could go well for Hughes. I think this deal will work out for the team.

 

So next season we're looking at Nolasco, Correia, Hughes, and Gibson (there's no way they give up on him this quickly) with Deduno/Diamond/Worley to fill out the back. No need to rush Meyer & May, but openings will be available in 2015 as contracts run out and better pitchers demand spaces.

 

The Nolasco & Hughes signings aren't transformative in the traditional sense, but they don't have to be. They will hopefully stabilize an awful rotation and bridge eras until guys like Meyer, May, Stewart, & Berrios are ready to join the rotation. Going from awful to quality will go a long way towards making this team respectable again.

[drivlikejehu]

So would Keith Law have also concluded that a two year deal for $24 million would have been excessive?

 

Clearly he would, and even more so than 3/24. The low AAV basically leverages the Twins' belief/hope he will pitch better away from New York; if that turns out to be true, they get 3 years on the cheap. Paying a higher AAV for fewer years would take away the upside without reducing the risk.

 

I like the move because, while 2014 is a lost cause, it gives the Twins a potential asset for subsequent years when it might make a difference. They still should add another starter one way or another.

[DaveW]

If things break right, 2014 may not be a lost cause...

[Alex]

The conventional wisdom that Hughes has struggled because of Yankee Stadium's short right porch is not correct. For his career (both at home and on the road), Hughes has given up home runs at a higher rate to right-handed hitters than to lefties (overall, 4.6% to RH, 4.1% to LH). His career opponent SLG has similar reverse splits (.438 for RH, .431 for LH).

 

I don't think that moving to Target Field will be the panacea for Hughes that people are expecting. Yes, it should provide some improvement; however, it doesn't suppress RH pull power very much, and RH batters have always hit Hughes well. Additionally, pitching in front of a Willingham, Presley, Arcia outfield could be very, very ugly. I think expecting a sub-4.00 ERA is very optimistic.

 

I don't disagree about the OF defense, but giving up HR to RH/LH batters does not tell you where those HR went. Of his 24 HR last season, just six landed in the left field seats. Every other HR was from CF to RF.

 

Now sadly, if you overlay Target Field, supposedly that only takes away one HR. Not sure how accurate that overlay is and it can't take into account the colder weather or other conditions --if there are any -- in Target Field (air currents) that may be more likely keeping balls in the park on that side of the park.

 

And those numbers apply just to last year (2012 was more spread out where 2010 was similar to 2013).

 

http://www.hittrackeronline.com/detail.php?id=2013_2643&type=pitcher

[Zephrin]

If things break right, 2014 may not be a lost cause...

 

I think that depends on what people consider a "lost cause." There are an awful lot of young guys - Sano, Meyer, Gibson, Hicks, Arcia and possibly Buxton - that would have to come up and play with the consistency and maturity of vets to sniff at the playoffs. The reality is that at least some of those guys will have bumps in the road as they adjust to the league.

 

I don't need this team to be in the playoff hunt in September for the season to be a success.

[markos]

I don't disagree about the OF defense, but giving up HR to RH/LH batters does not tell you where those HR went. Of his 24 HR last season, just six landed in the left field seats. Every other HR was from CF to RF.

 

Now sadly, if you overlay Target Field, supposedly that only takes away one HR. Not sure how accurate that overlay is and it can't take into account the colder weather or other conditions --if there are any -- in Target Field (air currents) that may be more likely keeping balls in the park on that side of the park.

 

http://www.hittrackeronline.com/detail.php?id=2013_2643&type=pitcher

 

In 2012 most of his homeruns were pulled:

http://www.hittrackeronline.com/detail.php?id=2012_76&type=pitcher

Of the 24 HR he gave up to RH hitters (6.1% of PAs), 20 were pulled to LF.

 

In 2013, the 11 RH HRs he gave up (3.9% of PAs), it was more of a 50-50 split - 6 to LF and 5 to RF.

 

I'm not sure what to make of the 2012-2013 difference. It could just be sample size issues. I did hear that he added slider to his repertoire in 2013. Maybe that allowed him to be more effective at suppressing RH pull HRs.

[Major League Ready]

I like the move. The situation reminds me a lot of Kyle Lohse. Good stuff but never really put it together with the Twins. Lohse moved on at age 27 and with the change of scenery had a very good career.

 

This comp perked me up. How nice would it be if we were on the other end of a Kyle Lohse type turnaround?

 

The way I see it, we were not going to contend even if the 2^nd SP was Kershaw. Nolasco and Hughes are a good bridge strategy. Let’s hope Gibson has a great sophomore season and Meyer comes on mid-season and pitches to his ceiling. They could replace Correia next year with one of the top of the rotation guys that should be available. Then you have …

 

Shields / Bailey / etc

Meyer

Gibson

Nolasco

Hughes / Deduno / Worley

 

It is not too far-fetched to believe we could be back in contention by 2015. If Hughes comes on like Lohse, Nolasco could be our #5. We are a long way from that scenario playing out. Gibson and Meyer have to reach their potential too but it is light at the end of what was a long/dark dark tunnel.

[Alex]

In 2012 most of his homeruns were pulled:

http://www.hittrackeronline.com/detail.php?id=2012_76&type=pitcher

Of the 24 HR he gave up to RH hitters (6.1% of PAs), 20 were pulled to LF.

 

In 2013, the 11 RH HRs he gave up (3.9% of PAs), it was more of a 50-50 split - 6 to LF and 5 to RF.

 

I'm not sure what to make of the 2012-2013 difference. It could just be sample size issues. I did hear that he added slider to his repertoire in 2013. Maybe that allowed him to be more effective at suppressing RH pull HRs.

 

I added this caveat in a later edit, not as specifically, but I also pointed out that his 2010 numbers were very similar to 2013. 2011 there really wasn't much data. But the point was simply looking at it from RHB/LHB perspective isn't enough to say how Target Field would affect it.

[Mike Sixel]

Now sign Ellsburry, and my blueprint pretty much comes true. No idea if either pitcher will work out, but they went out and tried to get better. That is a good thing.