Jim Callis: Buxton's Batting Titles & who's on Second - Dozier/Rosario/Polanco

[twinsfan34]

Jim Callis' thoughts...

 

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20131101&content_id=63603204&vkey=news_mlb&c_id=mlb

[John Bonnes]

Two interesting takes here. First, he likes Oscar Tavares more than Buxton, though he does think Buxton could win batting championships. Also, he's a believer in Rosario, but sees him starting out in AA next year?

 

"Rosario figures to start 2014 in Double-A and Polanco probably will begin next season in high Class A. If Rosario, a converted outfielder, can improve his defense, he's the best bet to be the Twins' second baseman of the future. Polanco could have the best all-around tools of the trio but needs the most development."

[cmathewson]

A good problem to have. Rosario spent some time in the AFL in left field. That might become his ultimate destination if Dozier continues to progress or Polanco can't handle short. I wouldn't be surprised if he starts the year at AA, but quickly progresses to AAA, especially if they want to try him in left for a while. He hit .284/.330/.412 there in 313 PAs in 2013. It's not like he dominated or anything. If he dominates, he can move quickly.

[TRex]

he likes Oscar Tavares more than Buxton,

 

I think it is important to re-iterate that he likes Tavares' HIT tool more than Buxton's. He has said repeatedly that Buxton is the better prospect.

[beckmt]

Rosario will probably start in AAA. Could see the Twins trading Dozier if they can get a very good pitcher(or prospect in return). Next year will probably still not matter, so I would not be opposed to that line(sell high). Could even see Rosario (if Dozier is traded, starting in Minnesota).

[kab21]

I think people have gotten way ahead of themselves with Rosario. He did alright in AA but he didn't dominate and he isn't an elite talent like Buxton/Sano. I would be very surprised if he only spent 90 games in low A (2012), 50 games in high A and 70 games in AA before moving up to AAA. His plate discipline also nosedived in AA.

 

I think he spends most of the year in the minors giving the Twins another year before a Dozier/Rosario issue is an issue.

[Shane Wahl]

Rosario will start in AA. He showed promise there, but it wasn't overwhelming. If he starts out well, a quick move to AAA will happen. I always, basically, like the idea of in-season promotions for a taste of the next level with these kinds of players. Rosario got it and was solid, but still a definite work in progress.

 

The Polanco question is a little odd because I don't see anything there to indicate he arrives with the Twins until 2016. That said, I wouldn't mind him back at SS in the minors in 2014.

[TheLeviathan]

I thought his reasoning for liking Tavares more was because of his success t higher levels. Which is a very valid point.

[2wins87]

I think people have gotten way ahead of themselves with Rosario. He did alright in AA but he didn't dominate and he isn't an elite talent like Buxton/Sano. I would be very surprised if he only spent 90 games in low A (2012), 50 games in high A and 70 games in AA before moving up to AAA. His plate discipline also nosedived in AA.

 

It's pretty hard to be in the same category of Buxton and Sano. I don't think his plate discipline really plummeted; it's never been very good and it really got exposed against some of the best minor league pitchers. He does still have incredible contact ability and surprising pop. Though I wouldn't disagree with starting him in AA until midseason or he starts forcing the issue.

[kab21]

It's pretty hard to be in the same category of Buxton and Sano. I don't think his plate discipline really plummeted; it's never been very good and it really got exposed against some of the best minor league pitchers. He does still have incredible contact ability and surprising pop. Though I wouldn't disagree with starting him in AA until midseason or he starts forcing the issue.

 

I'm not sure how you assess plate discipline but his K rate went from 16% (2012) and 12% (Ft Myers) to 21% (AA). He has never walked a lot but his BB rate has stayed about the same.

 

Perhaps plate discipline isn't really the right term since we don't know if he was expanding the strike zone (bad plate discipline) or if he was swinging through strikes (overmatched) but he certainly hasn't earned a promotion to AAA nor will he be rushed to the majors this season like some think.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Didn't we learn anything from the Aaron Hicks fiasco?

 

Good-but-not-great prospects should be put on a "slow and steady" path to the majors and at no point should they be rushed past their ability level. Rosario should start in AA, earn his way to AAA, and only then should we see him in Minnesota. July at the earliest, maybe not in 2014 at all.

[iastfan112]

Didn't we learn anything from the Aaron Hicks fiasco?

 

Good-but-not-great prospects should be put on a "slow and steady" path to the majors and at no point should they be rushed past their ability level. Rosario should start in AA, earn his way to AAA, and only then should we see him in Minnesota. July at the earliest, maybe not in 2014 at all.

 

Don't like the comparison. Rosario has flat out made better contact through the minors and been pushed much quicker, Hicks spent a full two years in low A and never moved through a level in less than a year.

[Trevor0333]

Don't like the comparison. Rosario has flat out made better contact through the minors and been pushed much quicker, Hicks spent a full two years in low A and never moved through a level in less than a year.

 

Agreed & well stated.

 

I like the idea of these guys who are fast movers starting in AAA and getting their timing & confidence going before being promoted to the majors mid season. That where the Rosario suspension really hurts, it pushes him back to 2015 almost guaranteed.

 

Also Rosario has been putting up strong hitting numbers at every level while being very young compared to the average age of players in those leagues. He isn't a Sano/Buxton level prospect but pretty close to Arcia. Rosario put up fairly similar #'s to Arcia at the same levels/ages with a little less power.

[TRex]

Rosario put up fairly similar #'s to Arcia at the same levels/ages with a little less power.

 

Just a couple of nits to pick (especially since I really like Rosario as a prospect)...

 

First, you do realize that Rosario is only 4 months younger than Arcia, right? Second, Arcia was a MONSTER at AA last year, with an OPS of .955 while Rosario (at an age 8 months older) hit 'only' .755. I don't think a 200 point difference constitutes a 'little less power'.

 

In regards to promotion for the vast majority of prospects, I think it is more important to focus on what the player can't do (or does not do well) instead of what they CAN do. Yes, I realize that Rosario's bat may be ready for the AAA test, but I really want him to be a second baseman and if he is still struggling with the glove, I don't think you will see what his bat is truly capable of.

[Trevor0333]

Just a couple of nits to pick (especially since I really like Rosario as a prospect)...

 

First, you do realize that Rosario is only 4 months younger than Arcia, right? Second, Arcia was a MONSTER at AA last year, with an OPS of .955 while Rosario (at an age 8 months older) hit 'only' .755. I don't think a 200 point difference constitutes a 'little less power'.

 

In regards to promotion for the vast majority of prospects, I think it is more important to focus on what the player can't do (or does not do well) instead of what they CAN do. Yes, I realize that Rosario's bat may be ready for the AAA test, but I really want him to be a second baseman and if he is still struggling with the glove, I don't think you will see what his bat is truly capable of.

 

I didnt realize that, I thought he was a year & a few months younger actually. Rosario slumped badly to start at AA and came on much better after the bad start. So his OPS was a bit better than the overall .755 he posted. The other thing with Rosario is he can play defense, I LOVE Arcia's confidence & aggresiveness at the plate but he is mediocre at best in the field.

 

So prospect level wise I think Arcia & Rosario are pretty fair comparisons overall. If Buxton is a A+ Arcia & Rosario are B+ level for comparison sake. If Rosario can be a good defender at 2B I would maybe rate him slightly over Arcia, if he's a corner OF I think I'd place him a tad below Arcia.

 

My point was more so people are too willing to give up on Rosario under rating how good of a prospect he is due to the very high level guys in Buston, Sano, & Meyer stealing the spotlight.

[YourHouseIsMyHouse]

[h=2]Jim Callis: Buxton's Batting Titles & who's on Second - Dozier/Rosario/Polanco[/h]

 

No what's on second. Who's on first.

[clutterheart]

The Polanco question is a little odd because I don't see anything there to indicate he arrives with the Twins until 2016. That said, I wouldn't mind him back at SS in the minors in 2014.

 

Polanco is on the 40 man roster so that escalates his time frame. And his so / bb is insanely good - especially when you consider his age. Ryan has said he stays at SS and if he does well there, he should end 2014 in AA. He's playing really well in winterball and he could be in the team mid 2015.