The Curse of the Big Papi?

[Otto von Ballpark]

Second, he was non-tendered so he was a free agent. So while technically "every team" could have passed on him, no one besides Papi and his agent knows how many and what kind of offers were out there.

 

Actually, according to this AP report, Ortiz was released in December 2002 rather than simply non-tendered -- an effort to get him off the 40-man roster immediately, rather than wait for the arbitration deadline?

 

KELOLAND.com | Twins Release Ortiz

 

In any case, it says he had to pass through release waivers, which means any team could have claimed him and gone to arbitration with him.

 

Also, he was released in mid-December and signed in mid-January, well before spring training, so he was only on the market about a month, which isn't anything unusual. Also, the AP article above notes that Ortiz was playing winter ball at the time of his release, which also possibly delayed him re-signing with another club.

 

And if salary was the driving factor, the Twins could have re-signed him as a free agent then, correct? Not sure if the rules were different back then, but I know Oakland non-tendered Jack Cust a few years ago and re-signed him the same offseason.

 

I wonder if Ortiz would have made $2 million in arbitration -- Jeremy Giambi was in the same boat (second year arbitration eligible), was better than Ortiz in 2001, made $115k more in 2002, was arguably better than Ortiz again in 2002, and received exactly $2 million for the 2003 season. Going by that, Ortiz could have slotted closer to $1.8 million. Over $2 million, as has been suggested by some observers, seems highly unlikely.

 

Also, the comparable Jeremy Giambi was traded twice in 2002, including the day before Ortiz was released. He didn't fetch much either time, but it suggests there could have been something of a market for Ortiz. At the very least, for just under $2 million, the Twins could have held on to Ortiz as a trade chip. (Giambi broke down pretty quickly in 2003, and Boston would have almost certainly dealt for Ortiz then.) That shouldn't have been an excessive amount even by 2002 Twins standards. The Twins paid a comparable sum in 2002 for the "services" of Bob Wells. They also committed $1 million for each of 2002-2003 for the last legs of Denny Hocking.

 

One thing that gets overlooked here is just how rare it is for MLB regulars to be non-tendered/released, particularly before their second arbitration award. That's almost the exclusive territory of marginal players (relievers/bench guys), or guys with immediate serious injury concerns (i.e. Pelfrey's surgery last year). Even Luis Rivas got two arbitration awards from the Twins. (Jack Cust only got one arb award from the A's, but he was 4 years older, a strikeout king, and coming off a 105 OPS+.)

 

How many healthy 120 OPS+ regulars don't get offered arbitration a second time?

[gunnarthor]

We have evidence that Ortiz used PEDs while he was in Boston. What we don't know is when he started.

 

I don't believe that Ortiz went to Boston and the Red Sox culture corrupted him into a PED user. Would you be surprised if evidence came to light that he used PEDs while he was a Twin? I wouldn't.

 

Perhaps. We did send him to winter ball several times. But the issue for me was always health, not pop. Maybe Ramirez got him onto his program instead of one he was on here. But who knows. I'm just not ready to rip the Twins for giving up on an injury prone DH who was later implicated in PEDs when his career got turned around. Esp when you consider the payroll situation.

[DaveW]

had avg 115 games the previous 3 years (and missed a lot of time in 98 as well for injury),

 

It wasn't all due to injuries, the Twins never gave him the regular playing time he deserved. And yes, he wasn't a "slam dunk" but he was at the time certainly worth the 1.2-1.8 million dollar gamble. The Twins certainly had the money to do it. To paint this as anything other than a monumental screw up that may have well cost the Twins a title is just passing blame/not holding the front office responsible.

 

Again, I am as big of a homer as they come and a HUGE Ryan fan, however, this move set the franchise back significantly.

[Otto von Ballpark]

he was 27

 

Just turned 27 that offseason, entering his "age-27" season, and despite some injuries, he had improved in both of his age-25 and age-26 seasons. I seem to remember hearing something about age-27 seasons from those cybermetric types...

 

The team had huge financial issues - they had to increase payroll by over 15m from 02 to 03 and most fans were worried that the Twins couldn't keep Hunter (and Twins sites like ESPN had a bunch of big market fans posting how much they were looking forward to buying Hunter).

 

Nobody is saying the Twins had to give Ortiz a long-term deal. It would have been one-year contract for just under $2 million.

 

Torii Hunter was only a second-year arb player himself -- he didn't command all that much money in 2003, and wasn't set to hit free agency for another couple years. Locking him up longer-term was fine, but it didn't have much to do with Ortiz making $1.8 million on a one-year deal.

 

And again, I don't know if this can be emphasized enough: upon leaving the Twins due to $1.8 million and/or a 40-man roster spot, Ortiz immediately began a 10 year run which has catapulted him to Hall of Fame candidate despite the short career and DH penalty. How can that not be a massive mistake, whether it's GM or coaching?

[Otto von Ballpark]

Also, post-ASB 2002, Ortiz's number are almost exactly equal to his 2003 Boston stats... and during that run he also passed the 1500 PA mark for his career. Wasn't that TK's rule, a player needed 1500 PA in MLB to judge him? If they're raking as they pass 1500, maybe give them 500 more?

[gunnarthor]

It wasn't all due to injuries, the Twins never gave him the regular playing time he deserved. And yes, he wasn't a "slam dunk" but he was at the time certainly worth the 1.2-1.8 million dollar gamble. The Twins certainly had the money to do it. To paint this as anything other than a monumental screw up that may have well cost the Twins a title is just passing blame/not holding the front office responsible.

 

Again, I am as big of a homer as they come and a HUGE Ryan fan, however, this move set the franchise back significantly.

 

I disagree. The 02 Twins were a 40m payroll team, the 03 Twins were 55.5m. They had to give raises to 10 players (Reed, Milton, Hunter, Mays, Koskie, Hawkins, Jones, Everyday Eddie, Dougie baseball and Guzman) that totaled more than 14.5m. They also signed Kenny Rogers for 2m for the rotation. At the time, Ortiz simply wasn't worth it. No one questioned his power but he couldn't stay healthy. To pay Ortiz, say 1.5m, you'd have to lose one or two of those players.

 

Again, in retrospect, losing Ortiz wasn't good (I suppose it also matters if you think his success was PED related or not) but the move made sense at the time.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I disagree. The 02 Twins were a 40m payroll team, the 03 Twins were 55.5m.

 

Because if there is one thing we all know, it's that TR always spends his entire payroll budget!

 

To pay Ortiz, say 1.5m, you'd have to lose one or two of those players.

 

Even if the $55m cap was somehow inviolable, why would you have to lose two? Every one of the guys you listed made $1.75m or more in 2003. Reed, Hawkins, and Eddie were all on expiring contracts too, with Koskie, Guzman, Dougie, and Milton gone after 2004 too. There weren't too many long-term commitments on that club.

 

And if the Joe Mays contract forced TR to release David Ortiz prematurely, I'm not sure why TR should get a pass for that.

[DaveW]

but the move made sense at the time.

Except it really didn't.

 

The Twins easily could have found the 1.5 mil to give to Ortiz, it really was a no brainer to bring back a guy who had an amazing second half of his age 26 season (.950+ OPS), had previous success for the team, a proven minor league track record, and the most raw power of anyone on the team.

[gunnarthor]

Except it really didn't.

 

The Twins easily could have found the 1.5 mil to give to Ortiz, it really was a no brainer to bring back a guy who had an amazing second half of his age 26 season (.950+ OPS), had previous success for the team, a proven minor league track record, and the most raw power of anyone on the team.

 

Except everything you say isn't really true. His amazing second half is fully dependent on July. His Aug/Sept OPS was below .800, just like his pre-July OPS was below .700. He was streaky. He never had much success as a Twin, they were replacing him with a guy who was a better ranked prospect and had been destroying AAA. Ortiz had pop.

 

And, as I just posted, the Twins gave raises to 10 guys and signed Rogers. They increased payroll by 15m. So it isn't clear that they could "easily have found 1.5 mil" for Ortiz.

[gunnarthor]

Because if there is one thing we all know, it's that TR always spends his entire payroll budget!

 

 

 

Even if the $55m cap was somehow inviolable, why would you have to lose two? Every one of the guys you listed made $1.75m or more in 2003. Reed, Hawkins, and Eddie were all on expiring contracts too, with Koskie, Guzman, Dougie, and Milton gone after 2004 too. There weren't too many long-term commitments on that club.

 

I probably didn't make it clear. The Twins gave 14m in raises to a bunch of guys, either through contracts or arbitration. Contracts have to be paid, even if they cut the guy so they couldn't cut, say Reed, and have that money for Ortiz. On the arb guys, you're right, they could have cut one guy to keep Ortiz (although they'd have to get someone else to replace, say, Koskie).

[notoriousgod71]

Except everything you say isn't really true. His amazing second half is fully dependent on July. His Aug/Sept OPS was below .800, just like his pre-July OPS was below .700. He was streaky. He never had much success as a Twin, they were replacing him with a guy who was a better ranked prospect and had been destroying AAA. Ortiz had pop.

 

And, as I just posted, the Twins gave raises to 10 guys and signed Rogers. They increased payroll by 15m. So it isn't clear that they could "easily have found 1.5 mil" for Ortiz.

 

 

They didn't sign Rogers until March so apparently they did have the capability of adding onto their payroll if they saw fit.

[Guest USAFChief]

Refresh my memory...was the MLB salary cap in place by Dec 02, or were the Twins still free to spend whatever amount they chose to?

 

It seems to me, unless there was a salary cap, defending the Ortiz release based on salary misses the point. Infact, if he was released for salary reasons other than baseball reasons, a reasonable person could see that as evidence Twins ownership is more interested in profit margins than WS wins...a POV that often gets vigorously disputed.

[TheLeviathan]

Part of the problem with looking at the numbers in hindsight is that it was clear, even then, that Ortiz was being asked to alter his game to play the "Twins Way". Some of what paints the Twins decision as reasonable was brought on by their own rigid way of doing things at the time.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Except everything you say isn't really true. His amazing second half is fully dependent on July. His Aug/Sept OPS was below .800, just like his pre-July OPS was below .700. He was streaky. He never had much success as a Twin, they were replacing him with a guy who was a better ranked prospect and had been destroying AAA. Ortiz had pop.

 

And, as I just posted, the Twins gave raises to 10 guys and signed Rogers. They increased payroll by 15m. So it isn't clear that they could "easily have found 1.5 mil" for Ortiz.

 

So a .795 OPS in "down" months is the mark of a bad player? That alone would have ranked 5th on the team in OPS.

 

LeCroy was almost exactly the same age as Ortiz. He was only a better-ranked prospect when he was still a minor league catcher which was already 3 years prior. Ortiz had almost as many MLB PA through age 22 as LeCroy through age 26, and they were much better PA. And LeCroy was the short side of a platoon.

 

In a business where even the small-market Twins were doling out $55 million per year in player salaries, yes, finding an extra $1.5 million is not that big of a deal. If Terry Ryan thought that David Ortiz wouldn't be worth $1.5 million in 2003, he was wrong, and if the Twins budget was so inflexible that Ryan couldn't add $1.5 million for a player he thought was worth it, well that's such a terrible business model in this sport I don't know where to begin.

[jay]

The funny part about ripping the Twins for trying to get him to use the whole field is that his resurgence in 2011 after three less impressive seasons is tied to Adrian Gonzalez convincing Big Papi to... use the whole field.

 

Here and elsewhere: Clubhouse Insider Boston Red Sox News | Boston Herald

 

That said, I do think the Twins made a mistake in letting him go -- both then and now.

[Willihammer]

I didn't read anyone ripping the coaches but the Rays, ironically, not the Twins, were the first to shift on Ortiz and didn't do it till around 2008 IIRC.

 

edit: He also hurt his wrist in 2008

[Kwak]

So many interesting points posted. I remember that Ortiz was publicly thrashed by the Twins claiming he had "an attitude problem". I also remember that in '02 he wasn't "hopeless defensively" as a 1B, though he was clearly inferior to Mientkewitz. Earlier today I read an article ("important dates...") that included a statement that sometimes teams threaten to release a player in an arbitration year as a tactic to negotiate a lower salary. Maybe that was part of the reasoning in '02? {Note: I hate those poker player who when caught bluffing berate their opponent for calling them, and winning!, on a trashy hand}. I also remember that Matt LeCroy was "the replacement" for Ortiz and was cited as "providing the same power-hitting bat--but right-handed batting--and that he "played" catcher. Was this the first instance of accomodating Gardenhire's need for three catchers?

On a side note, LeCroy's defense (and speed) were no better than Ortiz's so berating Ortiz on these points is a non-issue.

 

On a different note, I do find it entertaining that two of the "defenders" are taking passionate, but opposed sides of this issue. It is clear that the Twins "whiffed" on this Ortiz-decision--his hitting stats are clear. Ryan and his crew can not continually take kudos for trading AJ yet ignore this fiasco of a decision. It was 11 years ago, so we as Twins fans should be able to "move on". It is simply a reason to not put people on a pedestal--mistakes have been (and will still be) made, nobody is perfect.

[Alex]

It wasn't all due to injuries, the Twins never gave him the regular playing time he deserved. And yes, he wasn't a "slam dunk" but he was at the time certainly worth the 1.2-1.8 million dollar gamble. The Twins certainly had the money to do it. To paint this as anything other than a monumental screw up that may have well cost the Twins a title is just passing blame/not holding the front office responsible.

 

Again, I am as big of a homer as they come and a HUGE Ryan fan, however, this move set the franchise back significantly.

 

I get (and agree) that it was a clear mistake.

 

However, I'm really not buying the idea it set the franchise "back" in Hershel Walker type fashion. Maybe he helps the team to be more competitive with the Yankees in 2003 and 2004 (but two wins worth?) and I don't see how he's around after that.

[Marta Shearing]

Saying "He would have left anyway" or "Nobody else wanted him" is a bad argument. First of all, the Twins having developed him, should have been the ones to properly evaluate his potential. Secondly, they could have afforded him another 4-5 years. Seems to me the Twins gave long term deals to Hunter, Santana, Cuddyer, Mauer, and Morneau in the mid 2000's. Ortiz could have gotten a similar deal.

[TheLeviathan]

The funny part about ripping the Twins for trying to get him to use the whole field is that his resurgence in 2011 after three less impressive seasons is tied to Adrian Gonzalez convincing Big Papi to... use the whole field.

 

Here and elsewhere: Clubhouse Insider Boston Red Sox News | Boston Herald

 

That said, I do think the Twins made a mistake in letting him go -- both then and now.

 

You mean that idle speculation vs Ortiz openly blaming the Twins for stunting him are on equal levels? C'mon now.

[jay]

You mean that idle speculation vs Ortiz openly blaming the Twins for stunting him are on equal levels? C'mon now.

 

Sure, he ripped the Twins, but idle speculation? Published by multiple sources with connections to both players? I've seen you get pretty worked up over folks trying to dispute interpretations of less concrete sources.

 

Whether it's due to Gonzalez or not, he has clearly developed the ability to hit the other way over his career and his stats reflect success in doing so. Granted, it's generally not groundballs the other way, hence the shift that is commonly used on him. He may have ripped the Twins for trying to get him to do it, but it sure has worked.

[TheLeviathan]

Sure, he ripped the Twins, but idle speculation? Published by multiple sources with connections to both players? I've seen you get pretty worked up over folks trying to dispute interpretations of less concrete sources.

 

Whether it's due to Gonzalez or not, he has clearly developed the ability to hit the other way over his career and his stats reflect success in doing so. Granted, it's generally not groundballs the other way, hence the shift that is commonly used on him. He may have ripped the Twins for trying to get him to do it, but it sure has worked.

 

The article you posted is filled with generalities about the possibility an overlap helped. There isn't even a token quote from Ortiz acknowledging it.

 

And, what he does now to adjust as an established pull hitting star is very different than trying to establish your game in a suffocating context. It never makes sense to force a player to refine their game when you refuse to let them establish their bread and butter.

[jay]

The article you posted is filled with generalities about the possibility an overlap helped. There isn't even a token quote from Ortiz acknowledging it.

 

And, what he does now to adjust as an established pull hitting star is very different than trying to establish your game in a suffocating context. It never makes sense to force a player to refine their game when you refuse to let them establish their bread and butter.

 

He may not have been performing at MVP/HOF-type rates with the Twins, but it'd be hard to say he wasn't established as a pull hitter even back then. His minor league track record and MLB experiences showed as much. Pitchers don't need much time to adjust their approach to hitters and surely did so even during his Twins days.

 

The timing can be questioned as you've pointed out, but the fact remains he's been extremely successful doing exactly what the Twins wanted him to do and that for which they are faulted.

[TheLeviathan]

He may not have been performing at MVP/HOF-type rates with the Twins, but it'd be hard to say he wasn't established as a pull hitter even back then.

 

Um, no, it is hard to compare 2011/2012 David Ortiz with the version that left the Twins. They were on completely different levels. Teams weren't shifting that Ortiz. Teams weren't pitching around him. Teams weren't game-planning him.

 

What's hard to do is make the comparison of an MVP adjusting to the league's response to his success with a guy who never got off the ground in any significant way.

[jay]

Um, no, it is hard to compare 2011/2012 David Ortiz with the version that left the Twins. They were on completely different levels. Teams weren't shifting that Ortiz. Teams weren't pitching around him. Teams weren't game-planning him.

 

What's hard to do is make the comparison of an MVP adjusting to the league's response to his success with a guy who never got off the ground in any significant way.

 

There's no comparison in the results he's gotten, but he was certainly a pull hitter prior to being an MVP. Teams plan their approaches on guys not far in to their rookie seasons, so I don't quite see where the Twins were dead wrong in trying to get him to develop an ability to handle the outside pitches even back then. That exact ability is what has allowed him to remain so successful.

[DaveW]

There's no comparison in the results he's gotten, but he was certainly a pull hitter prior to being an MVP. Teams plan their approaches on guys not far in to their rookie seasons, so I don't quite see where the Twins were dead wrong in trying to get him to develop an ability to handle the outside pitches even back then. That exact ability is what has allowed him to remain so successful.

 

I think the Twins at the time focused to much on taking away power and telling players to drive the ball to the opposite field, if this wasn't true I doubt Papi would have had such negative things to say about the club.

[twinscowboysbulls]

Dave, pretend we didn't release him. How many more years would've we had him? 1? 2? We were operating under a tight budget like someone else said, the only thing you should be wishing is that we would've got something in return, because he was never going to be signed long-term. He didn't have the big numbers at the time, he could only DH, he wasn't the fan favorite and he had upset management.

[Marta Shearing]

Dave, pretend we didn't release him. How many more years would've we had him? 1? 2? We were operating under a tight budget like someone else said, the only thing you should be wishing is that we would've got something in return, because he was never going to be signed long-term. He didn't have the big numbers at the time, he could only DH, he wasn't the fan favorite and he had upset management.

 

They gave long term contracts to hunter, santana, cuddyer, mauer, and morneau.

[darin617]

Ever since the Twins let Big Papi go they have gone 0-5 in playoff series, meanwhile he has done nothing but rack up awards and lead the Red Sox to 3 titles.

 

Curse?

 

You may be onto something there. Just think if the Twins could have kept Ortiz he could be spraying the ball all around Target Field for a bunch of doubles and some long singles.

[Marta Shearing]

Worse yet, in those five playoff series, they've won TWO games. Its our curse of the Bambino.