Article: Free Agent Pitcher Profile: Ubaldo Jimenez

[Nick Nelson]

You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?r=2431-Free-Agent-Pitcher-Profile-Ubaldo-Jimenez

[orangevening]

I would do 3/52$, but giving up the draft pick kills it for me

[071063]

I think Jimenez is worth the risk. The Twins needs a veteran "ace" and he fits the bill, even with the risk. I'm not sure he would be the leader in the clubhouse like they would like, but I also don't know that he won't.

 

The Twins need to make a committment to starting pitching and it will probably be somewhat risky in order to get the pitcher with the upside that they will be looking for and need. Jimenez fits that bill. Now, the key is really, how does he turn out. We need him to be very successful!

[Brock Beauchamp]

I think it's a stretch for Ryan to pay for any of these guys but I think it's a giant stretch to expect him to give up a draft pick as well. I just don't see him going after Ubaldo.

[twinsfan34]

I think it's a stretch for Ryan to pay for any of these guys but I think it's a giant stretch to expect him to give up a draft pick as well. I just don't see him going after Ubaldo.

 

+1

 

No shot if the guy is offered a Qualifying Offer (loses 2nd RD Draft pick).

[Brock Beauchamp]

+1

 

No shot if the guy is offered a Qualifying Offer (loses 2nd RD Draft pick).

 

A very good second round pick. Given how the current CBA and qualifying offers are constructed, giving up picks is a really big deal, especially when you're picking somewhere in the 40-range with your second pick.

 

Back when qualifying offers were thrown out like candy and there were 10+ supplemental picks every season, it's wasn't such a big deal. Yeah, the Twins might lose a second round pick but they probably had at least one supplemental pick coming back from another player. That is no longer the case.

[DaveW]

A very good second round pick. Given how the current CBA and qualifying offers are constructed, giving up picks is a really big deal, especially when you're picking somewhere in the 40-range with your second pick.

 

Back when qualifying offers were thrown out like candy and there were 10+ supplemental picks every season, it's wasn't such a big deal. Yeah, the Twins might lose a second round pick but they probably had at least one supplemental pick coming back from another player. That is no longer the case.

 

Yeah, you are wrong.

 

Twins GM Terry Ryan says his team would give up its 2014 second-round pick to sign a free agent who received a qualifying offer, 1500ESPN.com's Darren Wolfson writes (on Twitter). The Twins' first-rounder, at No. 5 overall, is protected

[DaveW]

Ubaldo is the perfect target for the Twins, he is high risk, high reward, and if he pitches to his potential you basically get a 100 million dollar pitcher for about half the price.

I'd offer him 3/40 to start out with, and go up to 4/56 if nesc

[Brock Beauchamp]

Yeah, you are wrong.

 

I'd love to be wrong. Still don't see it happening.

[Siehbiscuit]

MLB Trade Rumors has him pegged for 3/$39. If the Twins truly had trouble getting FA to look at them seriously, then they need to make a "I will not get outbid"-type of offer. Something in the 4 year range and $16-18M will be what it takes to get him here. There is so much room in the budget, that even if a mistake were made and he is more of 4.50-5.00ERA guy, the Twins could survive. So much of the future is riding on prospects and they are cheap for most of the first 3-4 years. There is room in the budget, so let's get it done!

[twinsfan34]

Yeah, you are wrong.

 

Seems more like a factual statement that it is enforced by MLB. And he used 'sacrifice'...and it wasn't exactly non-nonchalant.

 

And to the point of the previous poster, it's a lot more valuable pick than in previous years where compensatory picks were handed out like candy on Holloween. It's also looking like a very good draft.

 

But you are quoting Wolfson correctly...

 

Darren Wolfson ‏@DarrenWolfson24 Oct

Terry Ryan confirmed to me that he would sacrifice his 2nd rd pick to sign a FA. Still seems like a long-shot. Maybe Ervin Santana. #mntwins

 

 

Per the ESPN1500 inteview:

 

Would you give up your 2nd round pick to sign a free-agent?

If he's good.

Really? That surprises me.

Sure, if he's good. Depends on who it is and longevity and age and all that stuff. I don't think there's a club that wouldn't give up a second-rounder to get quality back, and longevity.

That means you'll have to spend some money. As you know, the richest outside free-agent contract you've given out is 3-years/$21M to Willingham. If you sign a guy who has been tendered, you'll crush that contract. Prepared to do that?

Depends who it is. I have flexibility with payroll.

 

 

The rest of the interview is worth reading for other topics and overall context.

[Brandon]

Cleveland went over budget last season. I dont see them offering a qualified offer. So we should be good to go without losing the draft pick. He is one of the pitchers I can see Minnesota signing.

[Mike Sixel]

I'm curious, but would you trade a 2nd round pick for a proven MLB starter if you could? If not, why not? I'm told that the Twins aren't good because it is hard to pick late in round 1.....and that often those players don't work out. If that is true, isn't it more true of 2nd round picks?

 

Why would you want the uncertainty of a 2nd round pick, that is years away, rather than the certainty of a proven MLB player?*

 

*I ask this in principle, not in this exact case.

[Thrylos]

I think it's a stretch for Ryan to pay for any of these guys but I think it's a giant stretch to expect him to give up a draft pick as well. I just don't see him going after Ubaldo.

 

The Ryan who gave up 2 supplementary draft picks to re-sign Capps, would have no problem giving up a second rounder. On the other hand, I agree, I don't see him going after this guy.

[kab21]

People make way too big of a deal out 2nd rd picks. Yes, it's nice to get another pick but I would trade an overwhelming majority of the picks (#20-75) the Twins have made in the last 7 years for a 3-4 years of a guy like Ubaldo.

 

Eades

Berrios

Bard

Melotakis

Chargois

Michael

Harrison

Boyd

Wimmers

Goodrum

Gibson

Bashore

Gutierrez

Hunt

Ladendorf

Revere

 

It's a deep draft but a majority of the picks in the second half of the first rd and second round are busts. The Twins can start building their rotation instead of getting a likely bust who would be 3-4 years away from contributing if he overcame the odds. Additionally the Twins have a stacked system. They need to start putting an MLB team together where they are adding prospects to a solid team instead of completely counting on prospects for the rebuild.

[Thrylos]

Would you pay that for a 30-year-old who was an ace this season, but mostly a disaster in the two years preceding?

 

I would not mind paying an Ace $15-20 M a year, but 3.30 ERA, 1.330 WHIP, 12-9 and only 188 IP do not an Ace make. Chris Sale, Max Scherzer, José Fernandez, Clayton Kershaw are Aces this guy is not.

[twinsfan34]

The Ryan who gave up 2 supplementary draft picks to re-sign Capps, would have no problem giving up a second rounder. On the other hand, I agree, I don't see him going after this guy.

 

Two?! Really?! I'm not even understanding why we lost one to sign out own guy...

 

 

Really hated that trade the day it was announced. And now, in retrospect, I should have an even more visceral reaction. A horrible, horrible, horrible trade.

[twinsfan34]

People make way too big of a deal out 2nd rd picks. Yes, it's nice to get another pick but I would trade an overwhelming majority of the picks (#20-75) the Twins have made in the last 7 years for a 3-4 years of a guy like Ubaldo.

 

 

 

It's a deep draft but a majority of the picks in the second half of the first rd and second round are busts. The Twins can start building their rotation instead of getting a likely bust who would be 3-4 years away from contributing if he overcame the odds. Additionally the Twins have a stacked system. They need to start putting an MLB team together where they are adding prospects to a solid team instead of completely counting on prospects for the rebuild.

 

It took Tampa 6 years of good drafts (fruitful drafts) to get a good thing going. Twins need 2 more strong drafts to get a team in 2-3 years that will start cranking out .500 seasons or better. Producing at least a few players each year afterwards will be required to put them over the top and also stay competing for longer than 6 years - when free agency starts to decimate those teams after service time is fulfilled.

[notoriousgod71]

It took Tampa 6 years of good drafts (fruitful drafts) to get a good thing going. Twins need 2 more strong drafts to get a team in 2-3 years that will start cranking out .500 seasons or better. Producing at least a few players each year afterwards will be required to put them over the top and also stay competing for longer than 6 years - when free agency starts to decimate those teams after service time is fulfilled.

 

The Twins haven't drafted, developed, and kept an above average player since Glen Perkins in 2004 (Garza traded after 1.5 years). I don't know why we would expect them to suddenly start producing guys year after year until something changes.

[Brandon]

Also the best thing about someone like Ubaldo is the number of years required to sign him won't be too long. He will likely get a 3 or at most 4 year deal. The dollars won't be prohibitive with their budget regardless of how much he makes per season. I agree with the 3 year 39 million assesment. Maybe the Twins can tack on an option year with a 3 million buyout to increase the cash guarentee to get him signed.

 

Note: I am indifferent on who they sign this offseason as long as we are seeing progress towards the future (seeing our prospects advance) I don't care what they do this offseason in terms of quick fixes as i do not see us being competetive the next 2 seasons.

[Winston Smith]

I think one of the Admin guys should put up a "best guess" thread before FA starts where everyone can predict what they think will be the biggest $$ and best signing this winter. Would be interesting to see who does the best.

Did anyone last fall think the biggest move last winter would be 2 yr @ 5m Kevin Corriea signing?

[Seth Stohs]

I'd be willing to give up a second round pick for a top pitcher, as TR said, a guy with longevity. I just don't know that Ubaldo is a guy that I would do that for. As is pointed out above, he's not one of THOSE guys.

[Mike Sixel]

Who is more likely to be good, Jimenez, or a 2nd round pick? I mean, we pick apart the free agents like crazy, and seem to forget how few 2nd rounders even make the majors, let alone contribute something meaningful.

[Willihammer]

Jimenez has front of the rotation stuff and is exactly the sort the Twins should target IMHO, he just needs to command it.

[MichiganTwins]

What if we get two guys with qualifying offers? Can we lose more than 1 pick i.e. next year's pick?

[Guest USAFChief]

I like Jimenez way more than Hughes even if it costs a 2nd rnd pick. Way more. Hughes will never be a top of the rotation guy. Jimenez might.

[jorgenswest]

It isn't just losing the pick. It is also losing a lot of draft cap dollars and flexibility.

 

No one can foresee how they might need those dollars next year.

 

It could be someone dropping to them and needing the flexibility to go over slot with their first pick and make it up on the second. It could be going under slot with the first pick and taking someone dropping to the second round. The Royals did something like this to sign their supplemental pick Manaea.

 

In the new draft context, you give up flexibility when you give up the pick. Teams were reluctant to do that last winter.

[Shane Wahl]

3 years, $45 million.

[jokin]

It isn't just losing the pick. It is also losing a lot of draft cap dollars and flexibility.

 

No one can foresee how they might need those dollars next year.

 

It could be someone dropping to them and needing the flexibility to go over slot with their first pick and make it up on the second. It could be going under slot with the first pick and taking someone dropping to the second round. The Royals did something like this to sign their supplemental pick Manaea.

 

In the new draft context, you give up flexibility when you give up the pick. Teams were reluctant to do that last winter.

 

I believe Mikewantswins already answered your concern:

 

Who is more likely to be good, Jimenez, or a 2nd round pick? I mean, we pick apart the free agents like crazy, and seem to forget how few 2nd rounders even make the majors, let alone contribute something meaningful.

[Shane Wahl]

I would, without a moment's pause, give up the second round pick for Jimenez.