Article: Free Agent Pitcher Profile: Phil Hughes

[Marta Shearing]

I'd rather overpay for Garza.

[Thrylos]

Hughes would be a great signing. Got to mention that his BABIP in 2013 was .324 too...

 

In 2013, a down season, Hughes had 7.5 K/9 and his FB averaged 92.4 mph. Since pitch F/X came out (2006) the Twins did not have any RHP who matched this combination. In his down season. The closest was Garza (2007, 7.3 K/9 and 94.2 mph FB). Only Santana 3 times (2004-6) and Liriano twice (2006, 2010) matched or exceeded those numbers for the Twins.

 

Just another perspective...

[Shane Wahl]

The Lincecum prediction was 4 years and $64 million. It ended up being 2 years and $35 million.

 

I guess I don't understand quite the discrepancy in the those two predictions (Hughes and Lincecum), but I certainly understand the discrepancy between the prediction and the actual.

 

The Hughes prediction is 3 years and $30 million. I cannot imagine much less, certainly, unless Hughes is willing to go 2 years and $24 million or so. He might be willing to do that given his age, hoping for a bigger payday when he is still under 30 (but wanting more stability and money than just a one-year deal).

 

I do like incentive-laden deals. Maybe a 2/24 base with $2 million incentives (X innings with under 4 ERA) each year. Or 3/33 and the same to max at 3/39.

[Shane Wahl]

The extra TV money is much more likely to drive up yearly salary, not the number of years. See Lincecum.

[raindog]

I wish there were better options out there, but Hughes is really one of the best targets this year. Love the way Leviathan put it; you'd be giving him a better chance to succeed.

 

I looked at his average fastball velocity while he's been in the majors, no decline there. So he probably hasn't lost his "stuff". Just needs to figure something out, I suppose.

Fangraphs Pitch F/X

[ND-Fan]

I think he worth shot at signing he still 27 years old and still has potential improvement and his style of pitching would fit well into Target Field. He would fill number 3 starter for sure for Twins and if he had some improvement maybe number 2 starter. Add him to rotation we would have number 5 starter in Correia , Number 4 starter in Gibson, and him at number 3 Starter. We also would have Diamond coming back that could be another 3 or 4 starter if he could return to 2012 performance. Then if the Twins would go after top line pitcher addition to Hughes in free agency the Twins would have starting pitching staff. With likes of Worley, Hendricks, Deduno, and May still prospect category with some possible upside to fill in spot if one above has trouble performing. Aslo we would have myer, wimmers, and several other prospects coming up in next year we could develop fair starting pitching rotation. The Twins need to sign one quality starter like Hughes and one top of the line starter. The Twins can easily sign couple of players like this not significant effect on payroll now or in the future. The Twins are going to be stocked on players from minors for next 3 to 4 years so salary is not going to be a problem with young players filling in number of starting positions. Aslo Twins have no significant long term contracts other than Mauers for next 4 years so there should be room add other players if needed to become a competitive team. What I am afraid is going to happen instead the Twins will try to trade for quality starter instead of using free agency because their afraid of free agency and commitment in doing so. Ryan doesn't want to take risks of spending money on free agency in case the player bombs or is hurt ending his career. The Twins are going to have break there traditional way of rebuilding if they want the revenue and attendance continue in near future .

[Guest USAFChief]

This. You go after guys that have underperformed in other locations for any number of reasons: home stadium, division, playing time, style of play, etc. You don't hold it against a guy because his last spot was a bad fit; you exploit the situation when the market is down on a player because his last spot was a bad fit.

Playing time, I agree. Style of play maybe. Injury obviously. Conflict with coaches maybe. There are certainly reasons players might struggle in one situation and thrive in another.

 

Home stadium? Questionable IMO. Division? No.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Playing time, I agree. Style of play maybe. Injury obviously. Conflict with coaches maybe. There are certainly reasons players might struggle in one situation and thrive in another.

 

Home stadium? Questionable IMO. Division? No.

 

The division argument is debatable but I don't see how the home stadium is debatable at all.

 

Over the course of his career, here is the home/road ERA of Hughes:

 

4.96 / 4.10

 

That's 735 innings of work. That's a huge discrepancy, especially when you factor in that the vast majority of pitchers have better numbers at home, not away from it. Their defenders are more comfortable, they're (usually) more comfortable, and the opposing hitters are uncomfortable.

 

I don't understand how home stadium wouldn't be important. If you're a flyball pitcher, do you want to pitch in Dodger Stadium or Minute Maid Park? If you're a groundball pitcher, do you want to pitch in Wrigley or the Astrodome? Home stadiums have enormous impacts on pitchers.

[The Wise One]

Whatever Lincecum signed has no bearing on the rest of the world. 2 years ago he turned down a 4 year extension because he didn't want that kind of commitment. Lincecum does what he wants because that is what he wants to do. If he passes his physical that will push his career earnings to 99 million. There is no pressure on him to do anything but what he wants to do. As a medium tier pitcher and young Hughes should get a 4 year contract. A perfect fit for the Twins as he has the prerequisite plays poorly in Yankee stadium bit down pat.

Side bit here. Can one of you stats guys tell me the wisdom of compiling xfip as a home versus away stat?

era home vs away 4.94 4.10

xfip 4.28 4.35

fiip 4.80 3.78

sorry, I wasn't going to find a different site that had all of the rest of the era predictors. The baseball prospectus article on the predictor stuff showed reliability for all of the predictors was the same with a large enough sample size. 700+ innings was more than a large sample size IIRC.

[kab21]

I'm all for signing Hughes. He's a risk but he is a guy that could substantially improve. It's likely that he is at least a solid starter and it doesn't sound like he will get unreasonable money.

 

And getting out of Yankee Stadium should help a lot especially since it seems hard to hit a HR to RF in Target Field. HR/FB% at home is 13% and 7% on the road.

[jay]

I don't see Hughes getting more than Edwin Jackson money (4/$52m). Jackson was just a year older and had more consistent numbers.

 

Inflation is a b.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Whatever Lincecum signed has no bearing on the rest of the world. 2 years ago he turned down a 4 year extension because he didn't want that kind of commitment. Lincecum does what he wants because that is what he wants to do. If he passes his physical that will push his career earnings to 99 million. There is no pressure on him to do anything but what he wants to do. As a medium tier pitcher and young Hughes should get a 4 year contract. A perfect fit for the Twins as he has the prerequisite plays poorly in Yankee stadium bit down pat.

Side bit here. Can one of you stats guys tell me the wisdom of compiling xfip as a home versus away stat?

era home vs away 4.94 4.10

xfip 4.28 4.35

fiip 4.80 3.78

sorry, I wasn't going to find a different site that had all of the rest of the era predictors. The baseball prospectus article on the predictor stuff showed reliability for all of the predictors was the same with a large enough sample size. 700+ innings was more than a large sample size IIRC.

 

In this case, xFIP isnt a good metric. It removes home runs allowed and replaces it with "expected home runs". Well, Hughes' problem is that he gives up a ton of flyballs in a stadium that punishes fly ball pitchers. Normalizing that number is ignoring reality.

[Shane Wahl]

The Lincecum prediction of 4/64 and his signing at 2/35 is informative. Sorry. Maybe that prediction was exaggerated, but still. Lincecum was definitely right below the Tanaka-Garza-E. Santana-Jimenez line. Hughes is with Arroyo and others just below that.

 

I would not necessarily count on Phil Hughes wanting a 4-year deal. I would expect that he might prefer a 2-year deal because he could see it as a make good contract and still be 29 (as opposed to 31). So he would take more money per year for two years, yet still less than Lincy. Think about it. A one-year deal could make it all the worse if he has another semi-par year. A two-year deal gives him more assurance and gives him a second year to improve. A four-year deal right now for $50 million (at most) could preclude him from a good contract as a 31-year old.

[The Wise One]

In this case, xFIP isnt a good metric. It removes home runs allowed and replaces it with "expected home runs". Well, Hughes' problem is that he gives up a ton of flyballs in a stadium that punishes fly ball pitchers. Normalizing that number is ignoring reality.

That becomes the problem with a lot of these metrics. There are cases they do not work. fip biases against a pitcher with good control and a hard but not impossible to hit pitcher

[notoriousgod71]

If he's the only signing- no thanks.

 

If he's a precursor to multiple signings- yes.

[Major League Ready]

The division argument is debatable but I don't see how the home stadium is debatable at all.

 

Over the course of his career, here is the home/road ERA of Hughes:

 

4.96 / 4.10

 

That's 735 innings of work. That's a huge discrepancy, especially when you factor in that the vast majority of pitchers have better numbers at home, not away from it. Their defenders are more comfortable, they're (usually) more comfortable, and the opposing hitters are uncomfortable.

 

This is the most compelling argument I have seen in this particular debate. That is a very large sample size. If he can put up a 4.10 era on the road, it would not be unreasonable to expect him to match or better that mark at Target field.

 

The bad news is that a bunch of other teams are looking at that split and probably coming to a similar conclusion. He is going to get paid. There is no need for him to take a shorter term deal. He is the guy it makes the most sense to me to take a chance on because the term of this contract will during the players prime. This is the guy I expect them to go after the hardest.

[Riverbrian]

Just using my eyeball... I've never been a Hughes Fan. I've seen him pitch a handful of times and he has never impressed me and this includes starts away from Yankees Stadium in pitchers parks.

 

He Wilts... from what I've seen. Some pitchers will dig in when they need to dig. Hughes doesn't in my opinion.

 

With that said... No matter what my eyeball says... I'll take him... He would still be an improvement over some of our current guys. I'll take improvement no matter how marginal.

[Shane Wahl]

Ultimately some strange concerns. It reminds me of . . . the Vikings cycling through bad QBs . . . three bad ones ain't enough!

 

Buy Jimenez or Santana and Hughes. Stop complaining about sucking.

[raindog]

I would not necessarily count on Phil Hughes wanting a 4-year deal. I would expect that he might prefer a 2-year deal because he could see it as a make good contract and still be 29 (as opposed to 31).

This is what I would expect. I'd almost be concerned if he wanted a 4 year deal, because he might think he's peaked. That's probably overanalyzing, though.

 

The Twins should overpay him for 2 years and hope for the best.

[kab21]

This is what I would expect. I'd almost be concerned if he wanted a 4 year deal, because he might think he's peaked. That's probably overanalyzing, though.

 

The Twins should overpay him for 2 years and hope for the best.

 

I wouldn't be concerned if he wanted a 4 yr deal. 4-5 year deals are the standard for pitchers. Typically pitchers want the most guaranteed money although sometimes a pitcher wants a ONE year deal so he can get a longer deal the following offseason.

[Shane Wahl]

I wouldn't be concerned if he wanted a 4 yr deal. 4-5 year deals are the standard for pitchers. Typically pitchers want the most guaranteed money although sometimes a pitcher wants a ONE year deal so he can get a longer deal the following offseason.

 

4-5 year deals are not the standard for pitchers.

[kab21]

4-5 year deals are not the standard for pitchers.

 

For good ones they are. Hughes has a mixed track record but he will be in demand this offseason and if he can get 4-5 yrs then he will absolutely go for it. It is not a reason to be concerned that he thinks he has already peaked.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Am I alone in thinking that Hughes will want only a 1 or 2 year deal? He was pretty bad last year. How many free agent starters have ever signed 3+ year deals after a season that bad? That would keep his AAV down, guaranteed.

 

Hughes' record the last 4 years is a lot more like Francisco Liriano's than Edwin Jackson's. Liriano accepted a two year deal, and even Edwin Jackson basically took two offseasons to get his desired contract.

 

I predict Hughes takes a one-year deal from someone. Even a crazy Gil Meche offer seems unlikely for Hughes at this point (Meche was actually average in the preceding season).

[Shane Wahl]

Am I alone in thinking that Hughes will want only a 1 or 2 year deal? He was pretty bad last year. How many free agent starters have ever signed 3+ year deals after a season that bad? That would keep his AAV down, guaranteed.

 

Hughes' record the last 4 years is a lot more like Francisco Liriano's than Edwin Jackson's. Liriano accepted a two year deal, and even Edwin Jackson basically took two offseasons to get his desired contract.

 

I predict Hughes takes a one-year deal from someone. Even a crazy Gil Meche offer seems unlikely for Hughes at this point (Meche was actually average in the preceding season).

 

Your reasoning is exactly why I think he would want a two-year deal, since he will still be under 30 when that contract would be gone and he the two years just means more guaranteed money.

 

The Twins shouldn't look at one-year deals at all unless there is a true reclamation project like Johnson.

[kab21]

Your reasoning is exactly why I think he would want a two-year deal, since he will still be under 30 when that contract would be gone and he the two years just means more guaranteed money.

 

The Twins shouldn't look at one-year deals at all unless there is a true reclamation project like Johnson.

 

Let's step back a little bit. If Hughes is offered a 4/40-4/50M deal he will certainly take it over a 2 year deal regardless of when he becomes a FA again. He also will be a lot of more interested in a one year deal so he can re-enter FA again next season. Someone like the National's would give it to him.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Let's step back a little bit. If Hughes is offered a 4/40-4/50M deal he will certainly take it over a 2 year deal regardless of when he becomes a FA again.

 

No doubt, but who would offer it right now? Is there any precedent for a 78 ERA+ starter averaging under 5 IP per start signing anything more than a 1 or 2 year contract?

 

I don't think Hughes' potential equals, for example, Edwin Jackson's pre-2013 track record.

[jorgenswest]

Like Lincecom, Hughes is young for a free agent and probably doesn't see this as a last contract. Signing for two years in a situation where he can thrive will lead to a bigger contract in two years. Will he see Minnesota as the place where he can thrive? Would he have confidence in the park, pitching coach, catching situation and overall defense to believe this is the place?

[DJL44]

Why Phil Hughes? Because AJ Burnett. Not only is Yankee Stadium generous giving up the HR but their defense is also not good.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Burnett: now that would have been a good pickup for the Twins. The Pirates essentially got him for 2/13 from the Yanks for a couple middling low minors guys. (Burnett had a partial no-trade, not sure if he would have blocked the Twins.) Bill Smith might have made that move, it's similar to some of his deadline deals.

[Shane Wahl]

Like Lincecom, Hughes is young for a free agent and probably doesn't see this as a last contract. Signing for two years in a situation where he can thrive will lead to a bigger contract in two years. Will he see Minnesota as the place where he can thrive? Would he have confidence in the park, pitching coach, catching situation and overall defense to believe this is the place?

 

Exactly. And I think he could be quite interested in TF, yes.