Article: Pitching and Playoffs: Farm, Free Agency, or Trades?

[Mike Sixel]

why does signing a FA preclude the team from fixing it's minor league issues? How are the two correlated at all?

[Guest USAFChief]

Anibal Sanchez should be in the free agent category, not trade. He was a free agent last winter.

 

Maholm, while acquired via trade, was signed by Chicago as a free agent.

 

Both Wainwright and Hudson, while not technically free agents, each have signed two extensions that prevented free agency, which is sort of the same thing.

 

IMO you have misrepresented free agency in your study.

[Twins Twerp]

Worley yes through trade. Deduno via minor league free agent.

[twinsfan34]

why does signing a FA preclude the team from fixing it's minor league issues? How are the two correlated at all?

 

It doesn't necessarily preclude them from doing so. It can have a negative affect on your minor leagues.

 

Example, after the 2011 season the Angels signed Albert Pujols. The Cardinals got their 1st RD pick (Michael Wacha) as compensation for signing away Pujols. The Cardinals also got another 1st RD as a supplemental selection (Stephen Piscotty). Two years later, Wacha almost throws a no-hitter in the post-season and Piscotty is in AA already with a great BB/SO and contact ratio. The Angels also signed CJ Wilson so they lost their 2nd RD choice in that draft as well.

 

 

 

 

The Twins had a tremendous draft in 2012, but, they also lost their 2nd RD pick (#2 overall in that round) for signing Josh Willingham. Willingham had a great year in 2012. What will that pick ultimately end up being or what value will Josh Willingham's 2012 (and whatever he does this year, did nothing in 2013) and any other years weigh against that signing. Who knows...

 

So it's not 'free' to sign any free agent. For top free agents, you'll also lose your draft pick in the 1st RD for the upcoming draft.

[twinsfan34]

Anibal Sanchez should be in the free agent category, not trade. He was a free agent last winter.

 

Maholm, while acquired via trade, was signed by Chicago as a free agent.

 

Both Wainwright and Hudson, while not technically free agents, each have signed two extensions that prevented free agency, which is sort of the same thing.

 

IMO you have misrepresented free agency in your study.

 

I can see your view point on Anibal Sanchez. As the reason he's with the Tigers in 2013 is because he was a free agent and signed a contract. However, if that's the line of thinking, eventually 100% of players will be free agent acquisitions - because they have to sign a non-rookie contract at some point. There's a few caveats, but any player generally needs at least 6 years of MLB service time to be an unrestricted FA. So any player with 6 years or more on a team is a free agent.

 

 

Maholm is with the Braves - whether or not he signed with Chicago isn't really relevant to how he's playing with the Braves. How would you then deal with the fact he came to the majors by the Draft. That is, he was drafted by the Pirates in 2003, so would you not then have to consider him a Draft Pick? As he was a draft pick before he was a free agent. The other factor, is I'd struggle with how MLB classifies Maholm. At no point could Maholm have decided (free agency) not to be a Brave after being traded from the Cubs.

 

Well - Adam Wainwright would have been a Cardinal in 2013 regardless - as his contract extension doesn't come into play until 2014.

 

But, lets play out the scenario I think you're referring to. That is, assuming the Cardinals make the playoffs in 2014. I still would find it hard to classify Adam Wainwright as a Free Agent - as at no point in his career could the Twins (or any other ballclub) have signed him. He "avoided" free agency as claims, in the MLB terms, he has to file for free agency and be granted it. He would at no point been able to classify or call himself a free agent by Major League Baseball. Even so, I just can't classify a guy who's never been a free agent, as a free agent.

[The Wise One]

It doesn't necessarily preclude them from doing so. It can have a negative affect on your minor leagues.

 

Example, after the 2011 season the Angels signed Albert Pujols. The Cardinals got their 1st RD pick (Michael Wacha) as compensation for signing away Pujols. The Cardinals also got another 1st RD as a supplemental selection (Stephen Piscotty). Two years later, Wacha almost throws a no-hitter in the post-season and Piscotty is in AA already with a great BB/SO and contact ratio. The Angels also signed CJ Wilson so they lost their 2nd RD choice in that draft as well.

 

 

 

 

The Twins had a tremendous draft in 2012, but, they also lost their 2nd RD pick (#2 overall in that round) for signing Josh Willingham. Willingham had a great year in 2012. What will that pick ultimately end up being or what value will Josh Willingham's 2012 (and whatever he does this year, did nothing in 2013) and any other years weigh against that signing. Who knows...

 

So it's not 'free' to sign any free agent. For top free agents, you'll also lose your draft pick in the 1st RD for the upcoming draft.

 

The compensation rules have changed. I doubt the Twins will be signing a 14/mil player anyway.

[twinsfan34]

The compensation rules have changed. I doubt the Twins will be signing a 14/mil player anyway.

 

Yep. Instead of losing your 1st RD draft pick to the other team. You just forfeit it altogether. Exceptions Teams that were protected in the top 15 are now only the top 10 protected. Free Agents are also no longer tiered. Has to do with if they've been offered average salary of top 125 player money (early indications of $14.1M for 2014).

 

So the Twins for example, 5th worst team (top 10 protected), would instead lose a 2nd RD pick for say, signing Robbie Cano (sure to be offered compensatory money).

 

And yea, you're probably right. They probably won't go after a $14M+a yr player, primarily for the salary implications, but also because this administration would likely not prefer to lose their 2nd RD draft pick in this upcoming draft.

[Major League Ready]

why does signing a FA preclude the team from fixing it's minor league issues? How are the two correlated at all?

 

Draft pick compensation was a bigger part of it prior to the CBA. Why do you think Tampa Bay and Oakland do not sign FA pitchers? For that matter, does it make sense to you why they look to deal their best players when they are approaching free agency? I don't mean this to be a precursor to my answer, I am wondering why you think they manage their roster in this way.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I don't have a problem spending money, but minus Tanaka, Santana (who has an option and won't be leaving KC), and Garza (who I doubt will come here), I don't see anyone worth spending that type of cash on... Perhaps Hughes, but not at the kind of money I see tossed around here.

 

Quite honestly, they could turn into another one of our typical Twins pitchers except with a 4 year contract that you cannot unload.

[Mike Sixel]

TB doesn't sign FAs because they have no money to do so......do you really think they would never sign any FAs if they had $50-100MM more in revenue? They also don't sign FA pitchers because they are actually good at drafting and developing pitchers, so they don't need to sign FA pitchers.

 

Oakland, actually, did sign an expensive Cuban recently. The also do not sign expensive pitchers because they are are good at developing them, and they have a ballpark that allows them to sign less expensive pitchers and still be successful with them. Also, they have no revenue. Again, if they had another $100MM in revenue, you don't think they'd ever sign a FA?

 

I think many of you have cause and effect and root cause really wrong.

[nicksaviking]

The Twins had a tremendous draft in 2012, but, they also lost their 2nd RD pick (#2 overall in that round) for signing Josh Willingham. Willingham had a great year in 2012. What will that pick ultimately end up being or what value will Josh Willingham's 2012 (and whatever he does this year, did nothing in 2013) and any other years weigh against that signing. Who knows...

 

So it's not 'free' to sign any free agent. For top free agents, you'll also lose your draft pick in the 1st RD for the upcoming draft.

 

The Twins didn't lose a 2nd round pick. They used it on Mason Melotakis. It was a different system back then, clubs didn't lose picks unless the free agent was designated in the A class. In Willingham's case, the league simply generated a free draft pick out of thin air to help the A's, the Twins lost nothing.

 

Also, the Twins will not be losing their 1st pick. Any pick inside the top 10 is protected, they would simply lose their 2nd round pick, which I wouldn't like but would be forgivable if they got a high class free agent however unlikely that would be.

[Mike Sixel]

So basically they are unlikely to lose a draft pick, right? You can sign most free agents and not lose a pick.

 

Also, the point was....should they fix the coaching and development processes, and again, I don't see how signing good free agents effects that.....

[twinsfan34]

Draft pick compensation was a bigger part of it prior to the CBA. Why do you think Tampa Bay and Oakland do not sign FA pitchers? For that matter, does it make sense to you why they look to deal their best players when they are approaching free agency? I don't mean this to be a precursor to my answer, I am wondering why you think they manage their roster in this way.

 

 

Great observation. One would think this would open up teams from being more aggressive in that 'middle tier' free agency area (under the compensatory loss of pick price range).

 

This is a great Question:

 

For that matter, does it make sense to you why they look to deal their best players when they are approaching free agency?

 

And under the new CBA, will they still continue to do it?

 

It appears the Devil Rays are looking to deal David Price or at least highly entertaining the idea.

[Major League Ready]

TB doesn't sign FAs because they have no money to do so......do you really think they would never sign any FAs if they had $50-100MM more in revenue? They also don't sign FA pitchers because they are actually good at drafting and developing pitchers, so they don't need to sign FA pitchers.

 

Oakland, actually, did sign an expensive Cuban recently. The also do not sign expensive pitchers because they are are good at developing them, and they have a ballpark that allows them to sign less expensive pitchers and still be successful with them. Also, they have no revenue. Again, if they had another $100MM in revenue, you don't think they'd ever sign a FA?

 

I think many of you have cause and effect and root cause really wrong.

 

 

I only have two years or revenue numbers and I am not going to take time to look beyond 2011 & 2012. Had Tampa bay had an additional $100M in revenue they would have ranked 3^rd in 2011 and 5^th in 2012. At any rate, being affordable is a relative term. Technically, any team could afford to sign any player depending on your definition of afford.

 

The Ray’s and the A’s don’t sign them because their production/dollar of salary is poor. Elite free agents have a very poor production/salary ratio. If you are the NYY, LAD, or Boston, you can afford between 8-9M/player on the 25 man roster. The next tier (PHI,CHC,SF) you can afford somewhere between 5.5 and 6.5M. The Twins can afford roughly $4M and the Ray’s $3M per player. If you are the Twins and you sign two FAs for $40M/yr and you already have Mauer, assuming a $110M budget, you have 2.14M/player for the remaining 22 roster spots. The economics just don’t work even under the best case scenario that the player produces for the length of the contract.

 

When I said the Twins should focus on getting as good as the A’s and Ray’s at frafting and developing talent, you asked why developing talent and signing FAs could or should not co-exist. Now you say Oakland and Tampa Bay does not need to sign free agents because they are good at drafting and developing. I am confused. Additionally, one 4 year 36M player does not make for a practice. A Cespedes type signing is a very rare occurrence and a 4/36 for an international player where the contract will encompass the players prime is a very different thing than signing an injury prone Ellsbury to 5-6/110-130M. VERY different. How many examples can you come up with of teams in the bottom half of the league in terms of revenue signing players to the type of deal Ellsbury will receive? I can’t come up with one in the last few years. They all went to top 10 revenue teams.

 

2^nd tier FAs can be acquired on 2-4 years deals and those can make sense for the Twins anytime, especially right now.

[Mike Sixel]

Cespedes is still more than any FA contract the Twins have signed, EVER.

 

I'm not sure what you are confused on. Nothing about any of this explains how signing free agents prevents you from being good at developing people.

 

Agreed, having Mauer makes it harder to stay under $110MM and sign other big FAs, that is an issue.

[Guest USAFChief]

I only have two years or revenue numbers and I am not going to take time to look beyond 2011 & 2012. Had Tampa bay had an additional $100M in revenue they would have ranked 3^rd in 2011 and 5^th in 2012. At any rate, being affordable is a relative term. Technically, any team could afford to sign any player depending on your definition of afford.

 

The Ray’s and the A’s don’t sign them because their production/dollar of salary is poor. Elite free agents have a very poor production/salary ratio. If you are the NYY, LAD, or Boston, you can afford between 8-9M/player on the 25 man roster. The next tier (PHI,CHC,SF) you can afford somewhere between 5.5 and 6.5M. The Twins can afford roughly $4M and the Ray’s $3M per player. If you are the Twins and you sign two FAs for $40M/yr and you already have Mauer, assuming a $110M budget, you have 2.14M/player for the remaining 22 roster spots. The economics just don’t work even under the best case scenario that the player produces for the length of the contract.

 

When I said the Twins should focus on getting as good as the A’s and Ray’s at frafting and developing talent, you asked why developing talent and signing FAs could or should not co-exist. Now you say Oakland and Tampa Bay does not need to sign free agents because they are good at drafting and developing. I am confused. Additionally, one 4 year 36M player does not make for a practice. A Cespedes type signing is a very rare occurrence and a 4/36 for an international player where the contract will encompass the players prime is a very different thing than signing an injury prone Ellsbury to 5-6/110-130M. VERY different. How many examples can you come up with of teams in the bottom half of the league in terms of revenue signing players to the type of deal Ellsbury will receive? I can’t come up with one in the last few years. They all went to top 10 revenue teams.

 

2^nd tier FAs can be acquired on 2-4 years deals and those can make sense for the Twins anytime, especially right now.

Is there an answer to the question somewhere in there? Why would signing free agents prevent drafting and developing your own?

[Alex]

Is there an answer to the question somewhere in there? Why would signing free agents prevent drafting and developing your own?

 

The prevailing argument on this site (from those that argue against free agents) and from "the man" himself is that free agents are "short cuts" and we don't need them. We accept our suffering and the suffering of the fans as necessary. Signing free agents would be counter to and might actually mitigate said suffering.

[Alex]

Great observation. One would think this would open up teams from being more aggressive in that 'middle tier' free agency area (under the compensatory loss of pick price range).

 

This is a great Question:

 

 

 

And under the new CBA, will they still continue to do it?

 

It appears the Devil Rays are looking to deal David Price or at least highly entertaining the idea.

 

Just like they dealt Shields, I think they'll deal them as long as they can get more for value for them than they would get from a qualifying offer. For Shields, they got a near major league ready player with all six years of team control, much better than a supplemental pick and the risk involved in developing the player.

[Kwak]

"Fixing the draft problem"? Replace those responsible--presumably from teams that excel in that skill.

[Major League Ready]

Is there an answer to the question somewhere in there? Why would signing free agents prevent drafting and developing your own?

 

 

If that is what you get out of this post, any further discussion is pointless.

 

Let's be reasonable. I don't see anyone suggesting the Twins should not sign free agents. The general theme is not sign 5+ year guys. I have stated on a few occasions they should be very agressive on the best quality FAs that can be signed to 2-3 year deals and even 4 years of the situation is right. I asked before and I will ask again, give me examples of teams in the bottom half in terms of revenue that have signed top free agents that were not resigns. Let's make this reasonable given there have been $150M-250M contracts in the past few years. Lets say anything over $60M.