Article: Pitching and Playoffs: Farm, Free Agency, or Trades?

[twinsfan34]

You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?r=2396-Pitching-and-Playoffs-Through-the-Farm-System-Free-Agency-or-Trades

[John Bonnes]

This is an interesting study, but I'd argue that the conclusion overreaches somewhat. What it shows is this: the good teams this year have been very good at developing their own playoff-caliber starting pitching. Which is a great thing to keep in mind.

 

Unfortunately, there isn't a lot of evidence that the Twins have done that. So then the question becomes - what other options do the Twins have? Or another question might be this: until the Twins have a playoff-caliber rotation, should they settle for one of the worst rotations in MLB, or should be feel obligated to try and overspend (which is what free agency does, no question) to field a somewhat competitive team?

 

I don't think Terry Ryan is a stooge (or a scrooge). Ultimately, I believe in his philosophy of building up the minor league assets until a team can breakthrough. What I question is what the team should do until that happens. I don't believe the answer to that is "Pocket cash."

 

However, it IS a very interesting study. It really drives home how important it is for an organization to develop it's own starting pitching. Thanks very much for putting this together.

[jharaldson]

Teams that follow your lessons tend to have low payrolls because of a reliance on players in team control and trades of veterans for prospects. Here is a chart showing playoff performance over the past 5 years.

 

[TABLE=width: 308]

Year

Team

Playoffs

Champion

[TD=align: right]2011[/TD]

Rays

[TD=align: right]42[/TD]

[/TD]

[TD=align: right]2008

Rays

[TD=align: right]43[/TD]

[/TD]

[TD=align: right]2011

Diamondbacks

[TD=align: right]53[/TD]

[/TD]

[TD=align: right]2012

A's

[TD=align: right]55[/TD]

[/TD]

[TD=align: right]2010

Rangers

[TD=align: right]55[/TD]

[/TD]

[TD=align: right]2009

Twins

[TD=align: right]65[/TD]

[/TD]

[TD=align: right]2010

Rays

[TD=align: right]72[/TD]

[/TD]

[TD=align: right]2010

Reds

[TD=align: right]72[/TD]

[/TD]

[TD=align: right]2009

Rockies

[TD=align: right]75[/TD]

[/TD]

[TD=align: right]2012

Orioles

[TD=align: right]81[/TD]

[/TD]

[TD=align: right]2012

Nationals

[TD=align: right]81[/TD]

[/TD]

[TD=align: right]2008

Brewers

[TD=align: right]81[/TD]

[/TD]

[TD=align: right]2012

Reds

[TD=align: right]82[/TD]

[/TD]

[TD=align: right]2010

Braves

[TD=align: right]84[/TD]

[/TD]

[TD=align: right]2011

Brewers

[TD=align: right]86[/TD]

[/TD]

[TD=align: right]2009

Cardinals

[TD=align: right]88[/TD]

[/TD]

[TD=align: right]2011

Rangers

[TD=align: right]92[/TD]

[/TD]

[TD=align: right]2010

Twins

[TD=align: right]98[/TD]

[/TD]

[TD=align: right]2010

Giants

[/TD]

[TD=align: right]98

[TD=align: right]2008[/TD]

Phillies

[/TD]

[TD=align: right]98

[TD=align: right]2009[/TD]

Dodgers

[TD=align: right]100[/TD]

[/TD]

[TD=align: right]2011

Cardinals

[/TD]

[TD=align: right]105

[TD=align: right]2011[/TD]

Tigers

[TD=align: right]106[/TD]

[/TD]

[TD=align: right]2012

Cardinals

[TD=align: right]110[/TD]

[/TD]

[TD=align: right]2009

Phillies

[TD=align: right]113[/TD]

[/TD]

[TD=align: right]2009

Angels

[TD=align: right]114[/TD]

[/TD]

[TD=align: right]2012

Giants

[/TD]

[TD=align: right]118

[TD=align: right]2008[/TD]

Cubs

[TD=align: right]118[/TD]

[/TD]

[TD=align: right]2008

Dodgers

[TD=align: right]118[/TD]

[/TD]

[TD=align: right]2008

Angels

[TD=align: right]119[/TD]

[/TD]

[TD=align: right]2008

White Sox

[TD=align: right]121[/TD]

[/TD]

[TD=align: right]2009

Red Sox

[TD=align: right]123[/TD]

[/TD]

[TD=align: right]2012

Tigers

[TD=align: right]132[/TD]

[/TD]

[TD=align: right]2008

Red Sox

[TD=align: right]133[/TD]

[/TD]

[TD=align: right]2010

Phillies

[TD=align: right]142[/TD]

[/TD]

[TD=align: right]2011

Phillies

[TD=align: right]173[/TD]

[/TD]

[TD=align: right]2012

Yankees

[TD=align: right]198[/TD]

[/TD]

[TD=align: right]2009

Yankees

[/TD]

[TD=align: right]201

[TD=align: right]2011[/TD]

Yankees

[TD=align: right]202[/TD]

[/TD]

[TD=align: right]2010

Yankees

[TD=align: right]206[/TD]

[/TD]

[TD=align: right]103.8

[TD=align: right]124[/TD]

[/TABLE]

 

A couple of things I note:

 

1. No team with a payroll under $95 million has won the World Series.

2. Only 1 team with a payroll over $120 million has won the World Series.

 

My conclusion is that the best teams don't rely on just one way to build a team (Farm vs. Free Agent) but they do both.

[IdahoPilgrim]

A couple of things I note:

 

1. No team with a payroll under $95 million has won the World Series.

2. Only 1 team with a payroll over $120 million has won the World Series.

 

My conclusion is that the best teams don't rely on just one way to build a team (Farm vs. Free Agent) but they do both.

 

I don't think this necessarily follows - it assumes that teams with high payrolls primarily are built from free agency and teams with low payrolls are primarily built from the farm system, but it needs to be shown that that is a valid correlation.

 

Higher payroll can also sometimes come from re-signing your own players before they get to free agency (Mauer, Morneau, etc) but that still counts as being built by the farm system, and the OP pointed out two examples of FA signings that actually came very cheaply.

[beckmt]

One note I picked up. Most of the teams in the Twins payroll mode have at least 3 pitchers that are from the farm system. Only Pittsburg does not have 3 and one of there pitchers came in a trade when they had little or no time in the majors.(Morton) Gist is that pitching still wins and the Twins need to get it to compete.

[DAM DC Twins Fans]

Great article took a lot of work. Interesting to note the amount of pitchers coming up thru the farm system for playoff teams. I have never been a proponent of buying lots of free agent pitchers because the good teams will resign their own top pitchers almost all the time. Pitchers in their 30s tend to be on a down trend.

 

So yes, I agree with Terry Ryan approach. The problem seems to be that the Twins (until recently) haven't been drafting good pitchers and not developing them.

 

So the answer to me is first fire Rick Anderson; second wait for the current crop of good pitchers in the low minors (Stewart, Gonalves, Lee, Berrios, Duffey, etc.); third keep drafting pitching; fourth trade some of the top prospects (Hicks, Arcia, Rosario) for pitching.

[blindeke]

that said, we could buy one or two.

[Shane Wahl]

This is a great study. It's informative. I like John's comment though. A lot of successful teams ARE buying at least one top notch or second notch pitcher.

[OldManWinter]

"Developing" pitchers SB done way before Rick Anderson ever sees them. He may be in a position to tweak skills but the majority of "developing" cannot be accomplished at the MLB level.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Teams that follow your lessons tend to have low payrolls because of a reliance on players in team control and trades of veterans for prospects. Here is a chart showing playoff performance over the past 5 years.

 

A couple of things I note:

 

1. No team with a payroll under $95 million has won the World Series.

2. Only 1 team with a payroll over $120 million has won the World Series.

 

My conclusion is that the best teams don't rely on just one way to build a team (Farm vs. Free Agent) but they do both.

 

3. More teams over 95 mil have been to the playoffs than under

4. It appears that the payroll trend is up for playoff teams

[nicksaviking]

Great study and a good reference. Though this shows how the good teams are currently assembled, would it look much different than the bad teams?

 

Because while we would all love to have a farm raised stable of lights out starters, the Twins have proven to be very poor at developing the kind of starters who can impact a playoff game. So if you are deficient in one area, don't you then need to redouble your efforts in another, even if it is not ideal?

[terencemann]

I would point out that a lot of those teams, even the ones who have been relevant for a while like the Braves, Cards, and Rays, keep the farm system pumping and don't cling to players after their useful value to the team has expired (at least not by too much). The Braves, Cards and Pirates use free agency and trades to acquire talented players but it's the flexibility their farm systems give them that allows them to do that.

[Rosterman]

The Twins could be the same in 4-5 years. Gibson, Meyer, May, Berrios, Stewart, and a couple more. Nice if you can supplement with an occasional free agent. Part of it is trading vets for pieces that are on the horizon (like they did with Meyer and May (and Worley). Maybe we all need to just stop thinking of money. Yes, the Twins will spend 50%+ of revenue, supposedly. But are they required to do so...I fear not. Maybe if they said "Spend the money or we are giving it back to the fans" I would be happier. But spending is like giving it back to the fans, in a ways.

[Alex]

It's so tiring to hear the point-of-view that argues against spending, as if those who argue for it think it's possible to build a rotation only through spending and that we could care less about the farm system.

 

That just isn't the case, as others have mentioned, the Twins have left themselves little choice at this point. We'd all love if the Twins had shown themselves capable of drafting and developing a full rotation. Right now, the only capable pitcher -- brought through the Twins system -- anywhere near the bigs looks like Gibson and he's hasn't pitched like a top 1 or 2 (or even 3 or 4 so far).

[jtkoupal]

There is a lot that can be speculated, and the numbers showed certainly don't lie. However, I believe that the answer for the Twins lies with all three. There is so much work that needs to be done to get this team on the right track, and in my opinion, it starts with the offense. The offense was a bigger problem than our pitching this past year, getting shut down by nobody pitchers night after night. But the rotation is in desperate need of some help as well.

 

What we need is something along the lines of this:

 

FA acquisition

FA acquisition/trade acquisition

Correia

Diamond

Gibson

 

If I'm the Twins, I'm looking at a top line pitcher. We only have about $60M in commitments this coming year, and that could drop if Willingham and/or Doumit get traded. The bottom line, we have money, the money needs to be spent on pitching that won't knock us out in the 2nd inning constantly.

 

I'd be looking at:

 

Rickey Nolasco

Ervin Santana

Matt Garza

Masahiro Tanaka

Tim Lincecum (barring qualifying offer)

Scott Feldman

Ubaldo Jimenez

Josh Johnson

Phil Hughes

Wandy Rodriguez

 

The Twins are not big spenders usually, but I think one or two of these players need to be signed if we are going anywhere. I'd personally like to see Nolasco and Johnson, they pitched together in Miami, are veterans, and are better than what we have, but they will come at a price. A price that needs to be paid.

 

Go Twins

[Major League Ready]

Great study and a good reference. Though this shows how the good teams are currently assembled, would it look much different than the bad teams?

 

Because while we would all love to have a farm raised stable of lights out starters, the Twins have proven to be very poor at developing the kind of starters who can impact a playoff game. So if you are deficient in one area, don't you then need to redouble your efforts in another, even if it is not ideal?

 

 

In a word, no. When there is a model that is clearly the most effective, and your organization has not performed in said function, you need to "redouble" your efforts to improve in the area that is the most effective, not increase you efforts in a less effective model.

[clutterheart]

I am not hoping the Twins spend money on pitching so they can get to the playoffs - butt it would be nice. I would like the Twins to spend money on pitching so they can become an average professional baseball team.

[twinsfan34]

Great study and a good reference. Though this shows how the good teams are currently assembled, would it look much different than the bad teams?

 

Because while we would all love to have a farm raised stable of lights out starters, the Twins have proven to be very poor at developing the kind of starters who can impact a playoff game. So if you are deficient in one area, don't you then need to redouble your efforts in another, even if it is not ideal?

 

Great Question Nickssaviking,

 

I ran a quick run through of teams starting from the bottom, the Houston Astros. It's quite different from the successful teams - the 'farm' still wins, but only by 1 player out of the bottom 11 teams. If you pull the Mets from there (a healthy David Wright, et al) you would find the main method of putting together a starting rotation by the worst teams in MLB is by Free Agency (reaching perhaps?).

 

 

I have a question: Is it possible that Free Agency Starting Pitching is the Running Backs of the NFL. That is, find someone young, when he's getting expensive, and arguably not as good or likely to be successful, get trade him or let him walk for a 1st RD compensatory pick (a second 1st RD pick from the signing team if not a bottom 10 team and you offered him top 125 player money).

 

Here's a breakdown of the pitching staffs:

 

Houston Astros (51-111)

 

1. Dallas Keuchel - $503K– Farm
   
2. Lucas Harrell – $501K – Waivers
   
3. Erik Bedard – $1.15M - Free Agent
   
4. Jordan Lyles - $500K – Farm
   
5. Brad Peacock - $490K – Trade
   

Miami Marlins – 62-100

 

1. Jose Fernandez – Farm
   
2. Tom Koehler – Farm
   
3. Jacob Turner – Trade
   
4. Nathan Eovaldi – Trade
   
5. Henderson Alvarez - Trade
   

Chicago White Sox (63-99)

 

1. Chris Sale - $850K - Farm
   
2. Jose Quintana - $505K – Minor League FA
   
3. Hector Santiago - $505K - Farm
   
4. John Danks - $14.25M – Trade
   
5. Dylan Axelrod - $493K - Farm
   

Chicago Cubs (66-96)

 

1. Jeff Samardzija – Farm
   
2. Travis Wood - $528K – Trade
   
3. Edwin Jackson - $13M – Free Agent
   
4. Scott Feldman - $7M – Free Agent
   
5. Carlos Villanueva - $5M – Free Agent
   

Minnesota Twins (66-96)

 

1. Kevin Correia – Free Agent
   
2. Mike Pelfrey – Free Agent
   
3. Scott Diamond – Farm (Rule 5, AAA, 1.5 yr in system)
   
4. Sam Deduno – Free Agent
   
5. Vance Worley – Free Agent
   

Seattle Mariners (71-91)

 

1. Felix Hernandez – Farm
   
2. Hisashi Iwakuma – Free Agent
   
3. Joe Saunders – Free Agent
   
4. Aaron Harang – Trade
   
5. Brandon Maurer - Farm
   

Philadelphia Phillies (73-89)

 

1. Cliff Lee – Free Agent
   
2. Cole Hamels – Farm
   
3. Kyle Hendrick – Farm
   
4. Roy Halladay – Free Agent
   
5. John Lannan – Free Agent
   

Blue Jays (74-88)

 

1. R.A. Dickey - Trade
   
2. Mark Buehrle – Trade
   
3. J.A. Happ – Trade
   
4. Josh Johnson – Trade
   
5. Esmil Rogers – Trade
   

New York Mets (74-88)

 

1. Matt Harvey - Farm
   
2. Dillon Gee - Farm
   
3. Jonathan Niese - Farm
   
4. Shawn Marcum – Free Agent
   
5. Zack Wheeler – Trade (but AA prospect, 2 yrs in Mets system)
   

Milwaukee Brewers (74-88)

 

1. Kyle Lohse – Free Agent
   
2. Wily Peralta - Farm
   
3. Yovani Gallardo - Farm
   
4. Marco Estrada - Waivers
   
5. Tom Gorzelanny – Free Agent
   

San Diego Padres (76-86)

 

1. Eric Stultz – Waivers
   
2. Andrew Cashner – Trade
   
3. Edinson Volquez – Trade
   
4. Jason Marquis – Free Agent
   
5. Tyson Ross – Trade
   

[twinsfan34]

For some reason the chart wasn't coming through in the other comment...

 

Maybe this will work:

[Trevor0333]

This is an interesting study, but I'd argue that the conclusion overreaches somewhat. What it shows is this: the good teams this year have been very good at developing their own playoff-caliber starting pitching. Which is a great thing to keep in mind.

 

Unfortunately, there isn't a lot of evidence that the Twins have done that. So then the question becomes - what other options do the Twins have? Or another question might be this: until the Twins have a playoff-caliber rotation, should they settle for one of the worst rotations in MLB, or should be feel obligated to try and overspend (which is what free agency does, no question) to field a somewhat competitive team?

 

I don't think Terry Ryan is a stooge (or a scrooge). Ultimately, I believe in his philosophy of building up the minor league assets until a team can breakthrough. What I question is what the team should do until that happens. I don't believe the answer to that is "Pocket cash."

 

However, it IS a very interesting study. It really drives home how important it is for an organization to develop it's own starting pitching. Thanks very much for putting this together.

 

I do agree with Ryan's philosophy however, when your team has serious holes at a particular position you have to augment your roster with a signing here & there. Simply holding onto the unspent payroll for no other reason than they can't get the players on team friendly deals is rediculous. He needs to move off his stance from 97% against signing high profile FA to more like 80-85% against it if that makes sense.

[iastfan112]

Worley was acquired via trade fyi.

[Mike Sixel]

I think you have cause and effect backward.....bad teams use a lot of FA pitching because they have sucked at drafting pitchers, so they use FA to fill in the gaping holes. They aren't bad because they use FA, they use FA because they are bad.......

 

I'm not sure I get the conclustion that they should therefore not sign FA.....should they just go with Hendriks, Albers, Worley, Gibson, and Deduno, and not care?

[twinsfan34]

I think you have cause and effect backward.....bad teams use a lot of FA pitching because they have sucked at drafting pitchers, so they use FA to fill in the gaping holes. They aren't bad because they use FA, they use FA because they are bad.......

 

I'm not sure I get the conclution that they should therefore not sign FA.....should they just go with Hendriks, Albers, Worley, Gibson, and Deduno, and not care?

 

I think you're right. If drafting and other areas don't work out the tendency is to jump more fully into Free Agency. I think that's a healthy correlation. The other one - that may or may not be there - is the success or lack of success of teams that try to primarily 'win' with free agency. And for how long.

 

The latest collective bargaining agreement affected free agency a lot. Not so much in the contracts offered value wise, but in the compensation. It used to be you could trade for a Matt Garza, in a contract year, and then if you didn't resign him, you got a 1st RD draft pick by the type of Free Agent he is. If it was a team outside of the protected top 15 picks (15 worst teams) you also received their 1st RD pick. So in affect, they would give up the prospects Garza, but then you'd get two 1st round picks for him. Now a player must be offered a 'qualifying offer', last year it was $13.3M, this year it appears to be $14.1M. That is, unless Ervin Santana (Royals) is offered at least $14.1M for 1 season (or more) a team who signs him won't lose their 1st RD pick to the player's former team, the pick is just forfeited altogether. The team losing that player, if they offered at least a qualifying offer, would get a compensatory pick at the end of the 1st round.

 

What do you think that will do for free agency? The team losing the FA, now doesn't get as much compensation, that is they don't receive the pick from the signing team - will the team with the pending free agent then try harder to keep that player?

 

What it does for the Twins, who are in the top 10 picks, is we won't lose our 1st RD pick if we sign a 'top' (received a qualifying offer) free agent. But we would forfeit a 2nd rounder. So it's still the cost of signing the player as well as losing a high draft pick. So 'signing away' also hurts your farm system.

 

So did MLB do this in hopes of teams keeping their players? And did they do that knowing a player typically performs better for his home grown team versus signing for another? (assuming not a cast off)

 

The study wasn't so much, not caring. But that signing Free Agent starting pitching often didn't pay off. That is, it didn't result in wins for the team. Another guy did a WAR (wins above replacement) study and very few pitchers offered a WAR even above 2. So you pay $12M for 2 more wins than the next guy?

 

The past 4 years there were 42 starting pitchers signed via Free Agency. Only 16 even posted a winning record. The rest were awful. Look at the top salary guys from this past year. $13M this past year would have gotten you Dan Haren, Edwin Jackson, or Ryan Dempster. That is 10-14 W-L 4.67 ERA, 8-18 W-L 4.98 ERA, and 8-9 W-L 4.57 ERA.

 

We could have been WORSE as a team to sign those 3 guys and could have spent $40M in doing so.

 

They're just not affective if you have to start reaching for Free Agent Pitching.

 

Now, if you're talking about free agent hitting - that's a whole other matter and that can be and is successful. But winning pitching rotations are built primarily through the draft, secondarily through trades, and lastly, as often a final piece, through free agency - and often - they are not high salary guys.

 

I'm all for spending in Free Agency, but pitching is rare to return on it's value. It's why you have to pay $25M for a 34 year old Cliff Lee. Or $13M a piece for those studs (Dempster, Jackson, Haren) this past FA period.

 

Paying $13M to get Matt Garza isn't going to make us a winner.

[glunn]

I enjoyed the article and have also enjoyed the responses.

 

I am not optimistic about getting anything better than a #3 starter through FA. On the other hand, a #3 starter would have made 2013 a lot more bearable.

[TopGunn#22]

This is an interesting study, but I'd argue that the conclusion overreaches somewhat. What it shows is this: the good teams this year have been very good at developing their own playoff-caliber starting pitching. Which is a great thing to keep in mind.

 

Unfortunately, there isn't a lot of evidence that the Twins have done that. So then the question becomes - what other options do the Twins have? Or another question might be this: until the Twins have a playoff-caliber rotation, should they settle for one of the worst rotations in MLB, or should be feel obligated to try and overspend (which is what free agency does, no question) to field a somewhat competitive team?

 

I don't think Terry Ryan is a stooge (or a scrooge). Ultimately, I believe in his philosophy of building up the minor league assets until a team can breakthrough. What I question is what the team should do until that happens. I don't believe the answer to that is "Pocket cash."

 

However, it IS a very interesting study. It really drives home how important it is for an organization to develop it's own starting pitching. Thanks very much for putting this together.

 

There is no doubt that developing your own starting pitching is the best model. It's cheaper and provides stability going forward. But when your starting pitching has fallen to the depths the Twins has for the last 3-4 years you must move out of your comfort zone. The Tigers targeted SP's that they were willing to pay for both in both prospects and money via trades. They also went out and acquired bats (Cabrera, Fielder, Hunter, V-Mart, Infante). There really isn't a lot of home grown talent with Detroit. They just had an owner and GM who were willing to pay the price to do it. As Jon Bones points out...pocketing the cash ain't gonna make the Twins any better. And as Reusse correctly pointed out, when you compare the other ownership/GM's in this town, it just appears the Twins don't care. Perception is reality. Another point to consider. Terry Ryan is counting on 2015 as the year the Twins should be able to compete. What if Buxton and Sano are on the team and they play reasonably well but the team still struggles because many holes weren't fixed before they came up? Ryan is risking the fan base by signing the Corriea's, Pelfrey's etc...of the world. I think Twins fans should expect some bold moves this winter or the Twins risk crowds of about 15,000 per game. Someone should publish what the average attendance was in the month of September this year.

[Badsmerf]

Problem with comparing to Detroit is they have the best pitcher in the game in Verlander that came up through the system. Makes it pretty easy to fill holes when you have a guy like that. Same could have been said with Santana back in the day, except the Twins (Terry Ryan) didn't put any effort to put them over the top.

 

I think instead of "Farm" the category should be "Draft." The Rays draft pitchers incredibly well, kinda scary good really. David Price, Matt Moore (8th round- out of HS), Alex Cobb (4th round- out of HS), Jeremy Hellickson (4th round- out of HS), David Price (1st round, college). Chris Archer was acquired via trade by the Rays. He should not be listed as "Farm". Still, pretty impressive most of the Rays rotation is made-up of HS draftees that were found in the middle rounds.

[twinsfan34]

Problem with comparing to Detroit is they have the best pitcher in the game in Verlander that came up through the system. Makes it pretty easy to fill holes when you have a guy like that. Same could have been said with Santana back in the day, except the Twins (Terry Ryan) didn't put any effort to put them over the top.

 

I think instead of "Farm" the category should be "Draft." The Rays draft pitchers incredibly well, kinda scary good really. David Price, Matt Moore (8th round- out of HS), Alex Cobb (4th round- out of HS), Jeremy Hellickson (4th round- out of HS), David Price (1st round, college). Chris Archer was acquired via trade by the Rays. He should not be listed as "Farm". Still, pretty impressive most of the Rays rotation is made-up of HS draftees that were found in the middle rounds.

 

Yes, you are 100% correct, Chris Archer was acquired via trade. But he was brought to the Rays through the Farm system versus he was traded for and brought immediate value to the ML club. So yes, you are right, but for my classification, I was saying 'farm' as he didn't provide any value to the Rays as a AA player nor to their ability to win that particular season he was acquired much like a Free Agent or a Trade (typically) will. He was acquired in 2011 and spent a little over 2 years in the minors before becoming a starter a little while into the 2013 season.

 

I should have been more clear.

[Kwak]

Those teams that "fail" at drafting and developing pitchers can, and for much less than the price of a FA pitcher, lure (promotions and pay raises) personnel from those teams that do succeed at drafting/developing pitchers.

[Järpen Fäviken]

FA is a funny thing and perhaps needs to be put in context for the Twins. Traditionally the Twins get washout pitchers for a year or two and rarely get good dividends.

[Major League Ready]

Farm System 24

Trade 9

Free Agents 7

 

These numbers reflect that Chris Archer and AJ Burnett were trades. I could be wrong but I thought the Yankees wanted to get rid of him bad enough to pay $20M of his remaining $33M contract to trade him.

 

It gets more interesting when you look a little deeper into the 7 FAs. Of the 7, four of them had a combined salary of $16M annually and were on short term contracts. Ryu & Capuano at $6Meach, Colon at $3M and Liriano at $1M. These guys are often referred to here as dumpster diving.

 

Grienke and Lackey were the only two that fit the “high profile” description. The other, Ryan Dempster at 2/26.5 was somewhere in between but he was the worst performer of all 40 of the SPs on play-off teams. So, out of 40 team, two SPs (5%) were high profile FAs.

 

Only 4 of the 8 teams had free agents at all. Two of those teams had one FA each with a grand total of $4M guaranteed to them combined. Two teams (LAD and BOS) had five between them. Of course, they are the #2, and #3 teams in revenue.

 

So, I would agree with those that the best organizations draft well. I could not disagree more with those who conclude the Twins should be all the more aggressive in FA because they don’t draft well. That is the poorest solution possible. We need to fix the root problem, not pursue the avenue proven to the most ineffective and inefficient. Kwak hit in on the head. What better investment could we possibly make than to improve the staff, strategy, and processes associated with developing SPs?