Article: Have the Twins been screwed by umpires?

[Parker Hageman]

You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?r=2349-Have-the-Twins-been-screwed-by-umpires

[Mike Sixel]

Only stubbronness is keeping robots out, no reason to keep humans calling balls and strikes.

[Dman]

A strike is a strike and ball is a ball with greater accuracy would be nice. If computer controlled and consistant it would take alot of angst out of the game for both pitchers and batters.

[IdahoPilgrim]

I made the case a couple of months ago, in a pitch-framing thread, that maybe it was time for automated ball and strike calls. That not only eliminates the whole pitch-framing debate but this article shows it may be necessary just in general as well.

 

I expect MLB to move on this on an accelerated timetable, and have it in place for the 2023 season.

[Willihammer]

I go back and forth. On one hand, an automated strike caller would purify the competition between pitcher and batter. On the other hand, since framing appears to be a real thing, a repeatable skill, then its another little thing to keep me as a viewer engaged in games.

[adjacent]

I put framing in the same category as working the referees in another sport. Yes, it is a repeatable skill, but I am not sure it is a skill I want games decided on. I am all for automatic calling of balls and strikes, at least in MLB. It is not fair, even for umpires to ask them to do a task well that it is almost impossible for the human eye to do.

[ashbury]

while others suffered from shrinkage.

 

Sympathizes:

 

(Yeah, I'm basically just spelling out Parker's joke.)

 

Way back in another age, I always felt that early-career Latroy Hawkins and especially Willie Banks would have been more successful if the umpires gave them half a chance. I don't know whether my one-sided fan's view would have been borne out by stats like Parker has pointed to here, though.

 

Do these records get down to the level of pitch count? I suspect if the first-pitch calls are going against the Twins on a systematic basis it matters more than later on - the difference between 1-0 and 0-1 is pretty huge on how the rest of the PA comes out. With all the counts lumped together, maybe that's why a seemingly large disparity between two teams like the Twins and Brewers doesn't translate into much difference in results.

[jay]

As Costa’s points out, the Milwaukee Brewers, who at 55.3% have the highest amount of wrongly called pitches go in their favor, have nearly as bad of a record as the Twins. So it appears that even if the Twins had all the calls go their way, it still would not have changed the overall record much.

 

Parker, why would you assume that? How wouldn't the Brewers record have been even worse without the calls? We don't have a great way to quantify the true difference it caused, but you can't tell me it doesn't have an impact on each team's record.

 

That's like saying 'well, the Twins have hit 20 fewer homers than the Cubs this year, but their records are the same, so it wouldn't have mattered if they hit 20 more'. A bit more extreme, but the same line of reasoning.

[Monkeypaws]

I watched the game last week where Pelfrey got screwed about three times in one inning. I'm sure it has an effect. That's where a bulldog mentality would help.

[Jim Crikket]

You can't tell me that umpires are incapable of making the corrections necessary to improve the way they call balls/strikes. The problem is that they have absolutely no incentive to do so.

 

These egomaniacs actually seem to believe that the appropriate way fans should react to this kind of data is to insist on the players adjusting how they perform based on who the umpire is.

 

If umpires' compensation and perhaps even their jobs were influenced heavily by how accurately they called balls/strikes (not to mention outs), I guarantee you that we'd see a lot more accuracy in their calls. We wouldn't see NEARLY as much bias on 3-ball or 2-strike calls and we certainly would see a lot less "this rookie hasn't earned that call" crap.

 

Robots or other electronic calls of balls/strikes may be where we need to get, but I would prefer to see the THREAT of going there move umpires (and their union) toward accepting a compensation/employment system that places a high level of emphasis on competency and that certainly includes calling balls and strikes accurately.

[IdahoPilgrim]

I remember this whole debate in tennis a while back - should electronic means be used to determine whether a ball is in or out. They finally put electronic monitoring in place, but the chair umpire retains the right to overrule the machine when he or she chooses. Of course, in practice, those who overrule the machine consistently soon find themselves out of a job...

[Alex]

I think that more accurate and consistent strike zones would be a massive improvement to the game of baseball, far more than the system of replay they are implementing, where a lot of what happens after something is overturned will be subjective (not unlike the recent incident in the Twins game).

[cmathewson]

I think both Doumit and Mauer struggle to get the low strike called because they are both tall for catchers. Gibson lives at the knees and most of the in-zone pitches called balls were in that area. Another reason to move Mauer to first and put Pinto back there in 2014.

[jm3319]

Only stubbronness is keeping robots out, no reason to keep humans calling balls and strikes.

 

 

I disagree. i think it would HEAVILY favor the hitters, at least the very good ones. Think about players that already draw a lot of walks and have a good eye at the plate (AKA Mauer, Cabrera, etc). After a "calibration period" players would KNOW if a ball was a ball or a strike was a strike, even better than they do now. If the human element is removed, then batters just have to sit back and make the pitcher come to them. The very good one would chase balls out of the zone even less. It wouldn't turn a .250 hitter into a .350 hitter, but I feel like the best hitters would feast of a zone they knew with even higher accuracy.

 

In short, it'd force the pitcher to throw a strike and remove the "protecting the plate on 0-2" defensive mentality of the hitters, which I think would lead to fewer strikeouts and more hits.

[jay]

In short, it'd force the pitcher to throw a strike and remove the "protecting the plate on 0-2" defensive mentality of the hitters, which I think would lead to fewer strikeouts and more hits.

 

Ironically, the data doesn't support "protecting the plate on 0-2". Out of every possible situation, you're most likely to get a ball called in that count if the pitch is close.

[cmathewson]

Ironically, the data doesn't support "protecting the plate on 0-2". Out of every possible situation, you're most likely to get a ball called in that count if the pitch is close.

 

I was going to say that that is no longer the case. It is really hard to get a called third strike the way the umps call it in today's game. It used to be too easy. Not so anymore. To me, this is the main reason games are so long and we have to use so many pitchers. If umps just called the third strike regardless of the count, guys would start protecting the plate again.

[TJW]

Here are the things that affect whether or not a pitch is called a ball or a strike:

 

1. Identity of the Umpire

2. Where the Umpire stands

3. What kind of vest the Umpire is wearing

4. Reputation of the Pitcher

5. The seniority of the Pitcher

6. How that Pitcher is locating on that particular day

7. Reputation of the Batter

8. The seniority of the Batter

9. Whether or not the Catcher can frame that kind of pitch

10. The pitch count

11. Whether there are runners on base

12. The number of outs

13. The score of the game

14. Whether or not the teams/umpire need to catch a flight immediately after the game

15. Regular season vs. Playoffs

16. Whether or not there is a likely rain delay coming up soon

17. The reaction of the fans

18. Whether the umpire needs to "make up" for a previous mistake

19. The identify of the Team

20. The ACTUAL LOCATION OF THE PITCH!!

 

I would say we definitely need something better than umpires.

[Thrylos]

If the Twins had a savvy front office who can actually understand what the article said, they should have taken it to the off-season MLB meetings, demanding MLB fixing the problem. If that were Boston or the Yankees, that's what they'd do. But the Twins do not really understand what is going on.

 

The umpires have way too much say in the outcome of a game and things should change. If they do not perform and call things the correct way, they have no place in baseball...

[Thegrin]

If the pitch counts were taken away from the umpires, it could cause a game wide imbalance towards the hitters or the pitchers. This could be remedied by legislating changes in how tight or how lose the strike zone is. How much of the "black" is called a strike ? A tall batter does not have the same strike-zone profile as a short batter. The umpires would need to check to make sure that the strike-zone profile of each batter is correct, and change it accordingly.

[jorgenswest]

If the Twins want to find blame, they need only look in the mirror. While other teams are finding catchers skilled at managing the strike zone, the Twins have ignored or been ignorant of the data.

 

Are the Twins also behind in developing this skill in their minor league catchers?

[cmathewson]

If the Twins want to find blame, they need only look in the mirror. While other teams are finding catchers skilled at managing the strike zone, the Twins have ignored or been ignorant of the data.

 

Are the Twins also behind in developing this skill in their minor league catchers?

 

We have a gold glove catcher who is one of the best I've seen at framing. But the umps make no effort to change their stance with a taller catcher. So they don't call the low strike when Joe is behind the plate. Doumit has the same problem, but he is also framing challenged in general.

 

I think the catching position will revert to 5 foot 10 guys who can get really low, work with pitchers and manage the running game. The days of the Mauers and the Poseys are numbered, especially with the concussion issue.

[jokin]

We have a gold glove catcher who is one of the best I've seen at framing. But the umps make no effort to change their stance with a taller catcher. So they don't call the low strike when Joe is behind the plate. Doumit has the same problem, but he is also framing challenged in general.

 

I think the catching position will revert to 5 foot 10 guys who can get really low, work with pitchers and manage the running game. The days of the Mauers and the Poseys are numbered, especially with the concussion issue.

 

Good points, all. Also, when did MLB approve of home plate umpires setting up their line of sight a foot or more wide and off the plate (seemingly in order to better "see over" the bigger catchers)? When they set up that far away from the center of the plate, they of course inevitably, and frequently miss the low, outside strike.

[jorgenswest]

Jose Molina is 6'2" and at least 250. It is time the Twins start seeing strike zone management as a skill that is developed and acquired.

[OldManWinter]

MLB should UsE Robots Only To Evaluate Individual Umps Balls And Strikes Performance After Each Game ... With Umpire Compensation Based Partially On Their CompetAnce.

 

There Should Not Be So Much Disparity In What Teams Receive From Umps.

 

Certainly If The Twins Were Receiving The Same Breaks From UmP's As The Brewers, The W/L Record Would Be Better.

 

(Sorry About The Capital Letters But I Have Not Found A Guru).

[John Bonnes]

This made me think about all the times that Gardy & Andy have preached that thei pitchers need to keep the ball "down in the zone." Could it be that the value in doing so is negated by Mauer, or that it is difficult for pitchers to do that (and have it recognized as a strike) when Mauer is behind the plate?

[jorgenswest]

I won't disagree with the possibility of using technology.

 

It still does not excuse the failure of the Twins management. The data has been available to them since 2008. They make roster decisions knowing that humans are judging strikes and balls. Mike Fast's study about the impact on runs scored came prior to the offseason the Twins signed Doumit and the Rays signed Molina. The Pirates completely change their catching core from very poor in 2011 to very good with the inning of Martin in 2013.

 

Humans will be calling the strike zone in 2014. Will the Twins make excuses or changes?

[notoriousgod71]

Ugh, I absolutely hate the idea of a stupid robot calling balls and strikes. I love the human element of the game, even if it does screw the Twins over from time to time. To me different strike zones are as much of the appeal of baseball as different stadiums. In no other sports are the dimensions of the playing field different and that's part of the reason I love baseball. I despise replay, I despise robotic strike zones, I despise the use of technology to "improve" the game.

[Mike Sixel]

Everyone should play by the same rules, human umpires destroy a chance at a fair competition.

[jorgenswest]

The competition is fair. All major league teams play under the same conditions. No one forced the Twins to roster and extend Doumit. No one is denying them the opportunity to develop the skill of their catchers in the minors. They have the same opportunity to acquire catchers with this skill.

 

It isn't the umpires or the lack of technology that has damaged the Twins. They did it to themselves. Will they in 2014? Do they have any idea if Pinto it Herrmann are skilled in this area? Have they put resources into the pitch fx technology for their minor league teams? Do they have a team of people analyzing the data, reviewing the video and working with catchers on areas of the zone they are not getting strikes? Like almost everything else in baseball, managing the strike zone is a skill that can be acquired and developed. Some are very good. Some are not.

 

How much does it impact the game in runs scored? Joe Maddon said on a radio show that they calculated Molina saved them 50 runs last year. That is an astounding amount of runs. So many runs that the data is discounted completely by some. Many others are showing by their roster decisions that they are paying attention.

[tmerrickkeller]

Arrrggh (in honor of national "Talk Like A Pirate" day tomorrow). I think ye need to allow for the humans to err. 'Tis the very error of the game what makes it feel so human.