Predictions on Oswaldo Arcia

[Thegrin]

Arcia does what he knows. "See the ball. Hit the ball." With time and experience he will become Delmon Young or Jason Kubel. Lets hope he is traded for a good pitcher before he becomes Delmon Young.

[matthew0211]

I also predict his god-awful defense will rightly relegate him to DH most of the time.

 

Unless Gardy stops shifting him between positions all the time, it will be awhile before we know about his defense. Last night he was in RF, today it's LF again. Give him one position and let him get comfortable there, and he'll probably be fine.

[TheLeviathan]

Unless Gardy stops shifting him between positions all the time, it will be awhile before we know about his defense. Last night he was in RF, today it's LF again. Give him one position and let him get comfortable there, and he'll probably be fine.

 

I have a rule that I think pretty well when it comes to defense. Bad defensive players and great defensive players are easy to spot. Their skills (or complete lack of them) don't take a lot of analysis to see.

 

Arcia, from everything I've seen, is a bad defensive player. He looks like Delmon Young out there in how he takes routes and approaches fly balls. Some guys just aren't naturals and I (and this is just my opinion) can see that already with him.

 

Doesn't take anything away from how big of an impact player I believe he will be, however.

[jokin]

I have a rule that I think pretty well when it comes to defense. Bad defensive players and great defensive players are easy to spot.

 

1)Their skills (or complete lack of them) don't take a lot of analysis to see.

 

Arcia, from everything I've seen, is a bad defensive player. He looks like Delmon Young out there in how he takes routes and approaches fly balls.

2)Some guys just aren't naturals and I (and this is just my opinion) can see that already with him.

 

3)Doesn't take anything away from how big of an impact player I believe he will be, however.

 

 

 

3 great points with which I generally concur in the case of Oswaldo.

 

There are guys who work very hard at their weakness on defense and become very proficient, Corey Koskie comes to mind, but those are few and far between. The best to realisitically hope for with Aricia is that he becomes serviceable enough in the OF to make his bat a big plus.

[Guest USAFChief]

Arica has only around 800 PAs above A ball. He's 22 yrs old. He's hit everywhere, I think there's a good chance he acclimates to the majors and hits well there, too. Kubel is a pretty decent comp.

 

And I don't give much consideration to corner OF defense. It just isn't worth worrying about. Lets see what he looks like as a hitter by this time in 2015.

[TheLeviathan]

And I don't give much consideration to corner OF defense. It just isn't worth worrying about. Lets see what he looks like as a hitter by this time in 2015.

 

A fair point. But if you have a spot (and the Twins look to have an open DH spot long term) - I think we'll have far, far better fielders to throw out there long term. Frankly, I think Kubel is/was a superior fielder to Arcia.

[Kwak]

A fair point. But if you have a spot (and the Twins look to have an open DH spot long term) - I think we'll have far, far better fielders to throw out there long term. Frankly, I think Kubel is/was a superior fielder to Arcia.

 

There are potentially several candidates for that DH spot--including Mauer. If Arcia doesn't become a ++ hitter, he's got to play a position or be traded. Evaluating Arcia from (ceiling) Kubel to (floor) Delmon Young (with which I agree) causes me to conclude the Twins should be including him in a bundle for quality starting pitching. One thing that must change in the Twins organization is satisfaction wih C+ players. They arent what was hoped for in the draft, they get expensive after in the arbitration years and obscure the need for a better player at his position.

[howieramone1406390264]

There are potentially several candidates for that DH spot--including Mauer. If Arcia doesn't become a ++ hitter, he's got to play a position or be traded. Evaluating Arcia from (ceiling) Kubel to (floor) Delmon Young (with which I agree) causes me to conclude the Twins should be including him in a bundle for quality starting pitching. One thing that must change in the Twins organization is satisfaction wih C+ players. They arent what was hoped for in the draft, they get expensive after in the arbitration years and obscure the need for a better player at his position.

I think the thing to remember is the Twins grade their own players. Recents examples were Stewart was the consensus #4 pick, yet it came out after the draft the Twins had him at #2. Internationally Diaz was 10-14, yet the Twins reportedly signed him for $400,000 more than anyone else offered and had followed him for 2 years, just as they had Stewart. It's good fun to evaluate players on the board, but if you expect the Twins to go by these evaluations, most times you will be disappointed. I do agree he is not one of the untouchables.

[TheLeviathan]

There are potentially several candidates for that DH spot--including Mauer. If Arcia doesn't become a ++ hitter, he's got to play a position or be traded. Evaluating Arcia from (ceiling) Kubel to (floor) Delmon Young (with which I agree) causes me to conclude the Twins should be including him in a bundle for quality starting pitching. One thing that must change in the Twins organization is satisfaction wih C+ players. They arent what was hoped for in the draft, they get expensive after in the arbitration years and obscure the need for a better player at his position.

 

I tend to agree. For example, I'd sooner consider trading him than Rosario. But the truth is, this team's best chance to contend will still be with Mauer at catcher for the bulk of his at-bats. I'm not opposed to Arcia being in the outfield, I just expect Delmon Young-like defense out of him.

 

I, for one, am quite happy to be done with that. Even if Willingham is only marginally better.

[Guest USAFChief]

A fair point. But if you have a spot (and the Twins look to have an open DH spot long term) - I think we'll have far, far better fielders to throw out there long term. Frankly, I think Kubel is/was a superior fielder to Arcia.

If the Twins end up with 3 OFers who can both hit as well, and play better defense, great. In that case let him get the bulk of his ABs as a DH.

 

But IMO its not worth sacrificing offense for defense at corner OF, and I would be reluctant to relegate a 20-something yr old to DH before being forced into it.

[old nurse]

A left fielder averages less than 2 PO/game. Poorly hit balls tend to go to RF from a right handed bat. The liability of having a below average fielder in left isn't going to hurt the team if they are an above average bat. Leave him in left unless he develops a physique like Fielder.

[jokin]

A left fielder averages less than 2 PO/game. Poorly hit balls tend to go to RF from a right handed bat. The liability of having a below average fielder in left isn't going to hurt the team if they are an above average bat. Leave him in left unless he develops a physique like Fielder.

 

What's true for RH, is also true for LH. What's more important is the number of chances for a corner OF and the obvious need for a better arm in RF. Both LF and RF end up being virtually identical in the number of chances, which is just a shade under 4/game (close to 3.9/gm.). Once Buxton is in CF, the zone the LF will be responsible for will shrink significantly, it's definitely the position where Arcia will do the least damage.

[Shane Wahl]

Dear G-O-D. If this team has Willingham to open 2014 blocking Arcia, this team has other problems. Those two can no longer be on the same roster. The guy gone is obvious. In 2014 I couldn't care less about who mans LF or RF pre-Buxton's involvement. Parmelee should probably learn to play LF so Arcia can be in RF. Or instead of Parm there is Herrmann.

 

The real issue is past 2014 into 2015. It has now become apparent that given the sudden dearth of OF prospects who are really ready, that an OF of ROSARIO, Buxton, and Hicks might be in order for 2015 (If Dozier moves to SS, moot point).

 

Arcia down the road is going to have other players to contend with at the DH spot anyway. Give HIM TIME to learn LF or RF more properly. There is no damn hurry.

[TheLeviathan]

Arcia down the road is going to have other players to contend with at the DH spot anyway. Give HIM TIME to learn LF or RF more properly. There is no damn hurry.

 

I don't think you can just learn to be less clumsy and awkward fielding. I have no problem continuing to run him out there now, but to the point of the thread about predicting the future....I hope once more talent arrives it pushes him to a position morebefitting his skillset.

[stringer bell]

You can learn a lot about playing outfield. The biggest thing is to be able to focus--as a rookie Brian Dozier couldn't focus on defense, as a second-year guy, he has been great--playing the wall properly and taking good routes to balls takes practice and I don't think Arcia has worked enough at that yet. He has enough range and arm right now to be a better than adequate outfielder. The rest can be improved on, and if he wants to be a good all-around player, he can improve.

[Kwak]

"Brian Dozier...--playing the wall properly and taking good routes..."

 

What wall? Routes?

[Shane Wahl]

Doesn't jumping rope help reduce clumsiness? I read that somewhere on the internets. Maybe we should see Oswaldo jumping rope between innings.

 

I'm only half-joking here.

[Shane Wahl]

Also, anyone see extended Arcia time in the OF in the minors? Is it the SAME as what we are seeing with the Twins? If so, then it is probably fairly doomed. If not, then there is hope.

[Shane Wahl]

Also, Chris Parmelee is a better OF defender than one might expect, at least with respect to not being clumsy and awkward. Can the Twins just start converting potential non-MLB material players to extra coaches so Parm can get Arcia to not be so Delmonesque out there?

[Bill]

Arcia is batting .142 with 1 homer and 108 strikeouts when hitting with two strikes. If he would just dial his swing back a little bit with two strikes and keep his approach the same as it currently is whenever there are fewer than two strikes, then there would be a marked overall improvement.

[Shane Wahl]

Arcia is batting .142 with 1 homer and 108 strikeouts when hitting with two strikes. If he would just dial his swing back a little bit with two strikes and keep his approach the same as it currently is whenever there are fewer than two strikes, then there would be a marked overall improvement.

 

Cue the need for Brian Harper as assistant hitting coach.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Arcia is batting .142 with 1 homer and 108 strikeouts when hitting with two strikes. If he would just dial his swing back a little bit with two strikes and keep his approach the same as it currently is whenever there are fewer than two strikes, then there would be a marked overall improvement.

 

You do realize that, by definition, all strikeouts will come with two strikes? Unless Bugs Bunny is pitching, I suppose...

 

As to your suggestion, I suspect it is not that easy to change hitting approaches at MLB. I would guess that very few people or capable of doing it at that level (and they may be worse hitters overall anyway).

[Mike Sixel]

I'd still prefer Arcia at 1B/DH, with Mauer at RF/1B/DH, because defense does matter. That said, unless they actually try to win next year, I'd leave Arcia in RF and see what happens. I think he can hit the ball, I'm not sure he can field.

[Bill]

You do realize that, by definition, all strikeouts will come with two strikes? Unless Bugs Bunny is pitching, I suppose...

 

As to your suggestion, I suspect it is not that easy to change hitting approaches at MLB. I would guess that very few people or capable of doing it at that level (and they may be worse hitters overall anyway).

 

If Bugs is pitching there is no hope...

 

As best as I can tell the the league hits about .180 with two strikes, so Arcia is a bad but not monumentally bad two-strike hitter when viewed through that lens.

 

No doubt it is hard to make changes. On the other hand, given his current results with two strikes, there does not seem to be much downside for him in trying to put greater emphasis on making contact in those situations where there are two strikes. Arcia's good outcomes seem to just about all come with fewer than two strikes. And nothing happens after two strikes because the at bat is then over.

 

Maybe he is already trying this and just hasn't succeeded yet. Or maybe he isn't and will come around with his current approach.

[twinsfan34]

Two things could contribute to Arcia's decline.

 

1. Is it that pitchers and scouting reports have 'figured' him out?

 

2. Is that wrist injury still nagging him?

 

Looking at his AB vs. Pitchers, it doesn't look like he's had more than 6-7 ABs vs any given pitcher. Oswaldo Arcia Batter vs Pitching Stats - ESPN

 

Then looking at his HOT/COLD zones - you find he's hitting Fastballs as most LH's do, well down low (over .300) and not so good on fastballs just above the belt.

 

That said, his dip has changed dramatically after the injury, strikeout range does from 28% K/AB ratio to 37% K/AB ratio while his average has dipped from .284 to .221. For background, his entire minor league K/AB rate was 21%. He hit .300+ everywhere he went. I could see him hitting .280+ 20-30 HR 80+ with 120-150 K per 500-550 AB. Is that good enough to be the Twins LF for 2014 through 2018? Probably. Would Adam Walker or JD Williams be better? Or provide better K% rates? It's hard to project as Arcia hit .300+ everywhere, neither of those guys has provided a .300+ season yet. So in the Twins system, I don't see anyone (At this time) displacing him from LF. (Assuming Rosario sticks it out at 2B). Walker has a better arm for sure. Maybe RF arm. A comment on Aaron Hicks probably might be in order here...but I digress.

 

It's probably too early to make a 'hasty' decision on Arcia on the offensive end.

 

He's at least as serviceable defensively at LF as Kubel and Delmon Young - so I think he'll be fine as a LF.

[TheLeviathan]

Two things could contribute to Arcia's decline.

 

1. Is it that pitchers and scouting reports have 'figured' him out?

 

2. Is that wrist injury still nagging him?

 

Looking at his AB vs. Pitchers, it doesn't look like he's had more than 6-7 ABs vs any given pitcher. Oswaldo Arcia Batter vs Pitching Stats - ESPN

 

Then looking at his HOT/COLD zones - you find he's hitting Fastballs as most LH's do, well down low (over .300) and not so good on fastballs just above the belt.

 

That said, his dip has changed dramatically after the injury, strikeout range does from 28% K/AB ratio to 37% K/AB ratio while his average has dipped from .284 to .221. For background, his entire minor league K/AB rate was 21%. He hit .300+ everywhere he went. I could see him hitting .280+ 20-30 HR 80+ with 120-150 K per 500-550 AB. Is that good enough to be the Twins LF for 2014 through 2018? Probably. Would Adam Walker or JD Williams be better? Or provide better K% rates? It's hard to project as Arcia hit .300+ everywhere, neither of those guys has provided a .300+ season yet. So in the Twins system, I don't see anyone (At this time) displacing him from LF. (Assuming Rosario sticks it out at 2B). Walker has a better arm for sure. Maybe RF arm. A comment on Aaron Hicks probably might be in order here...but I digress.

 

It's probably too early to make a 'hasty' decision on Arcia on the offensive end.

 

He's at least as serviceable defensively at LF as Kubel and Delmon Young - so I think he'll be fine as a LF.

 

I'll say what many will probably think - that's a damn fine second post sir. Even if Delmon Young's defense and "serviceable" belong together like oil and water.

 

[Oldgoat_MN]

I'd still prefer Arcia at 1B/DH, with Mauer at RF/1B/DH, because defense does matter. That said, unless they actually try to win next year, I'd leave Arcia in RF and see what happens. I think he can hit the ball, I'm not sure he can field.

 

Arcia is listed as being 6' 0" tall. Thrylos said that this is very overstated and that his height is probably about 5' 10". That is not going to play at 1B as long as you have fielders who have to hurry throws, which every MLB team has every game.

[Nick Nelson]

I will be very curious to see how Arcia's body develops. He's already a pretty huge guy at 22 -- what's he going to look like at 28?

[Mike Sixel]

Arcia is listed as being 6' 0" tall. Thrylos said that this is very overstated and that his height is probably about 5' 10". That is not going to play at 1B as long as you have fielders who have to hurry throws, which every MLB team has every game.

 

I didn't know he was that short. Hmmmmm......

[stringer bell]

The other part of this, Mike, is that you are asking two players to move to positions they never played before (Mauer made an emergency start in right, but still). Arcia has been an outfielder exclusively in pro ball while Mauer has played about half a season at first in the majors and played quite well there from what I've seen.