Article: Why the Twins Will Spend This Offseason

[Nick Nelson]

I get really tired of hearing the "Twins won't compete until 2015 so there's no point in spending" refrain. Just a loser's mentality that I pray Terry Ryan does not share.

 

Someone convince me that this could not be a decent team next year if the Twins got lucky on a couple FA starters. You add, say, an effective Ervin Santana + Ubaldo Jimenez on top of Gibson, Diamond (or whichever guy rises) and Correia (who is at some point hopefully replaced by Meyer) and you've got a rotation that could compete. They've already got a solid bullpen and I think an offense led by Mauer, Arcia, Sano, Willingham, Dozier and eventually Buxton can certainly do the job.

 

Not to speak for others, but I think "not terribly unreasonable" undersells their positions by a lot.

 

"TR has never done it" is quite reasonable at this point, IMO. In fact, I'd go so far as to say its what I expect.

This is totally fair, but I'd also note that we're looking at a unique situation so past precedence does not necessarily apply. When have the Twins ever been so far below their projected spending cap with salary commitments? Failing to sign at least one or two significant players would be like trotting out a $25M payroll in the Metrodome days.

[Nick Nelson]

Also, free agency is certainly filled with risk but it is not a "crap shoot." Some guys are definitively more likely to succeed than others and the Twins' front office is filled with people whose job it is to make those evaluations. If the folks in charge don't have faith in their ability to invest wisely, why are they in charge?

[jun]

The Twins could add a power hitter with a good avg and one or two starters. If they don't bring Morneau back, they need someone to replace him in the lineup. Correia, Albers, Deduno (if he's healthy) should be in the rotation. They could sign Pelfrey for another one year deal. That would leave one vacant spot in the rotation.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Like others have said, there's no question the circumstances are different, but there's a history here that makes me skeptical as well. Looking at the next wave, signing to sign is silly as you and others have said. You won't want to block a prospect. We have 3 really good OF prospects right now in Arcia, Hicks, and Buxton with a marginal one in Pressley that could potentially have upside, so I wouldn't sign an OF. 2B looks good and C is pretty much set too. 3B has Sano coming up, so you don't want to block him. The pen is pretty solid too, both here and in the pipeline. That leaves SP, which has some nice prospects in Meyer, Gibson, and May and quite a few marginal ones (Darnel, Worley, Hendricks, Baxendale, etc.).

 

Where we are week is 1B/DH/SS/SP in my opinion. If Dozier is for real and Rosario is too, you might be able to solve SS and move Dozier back, but beyond that, I don't see enough help to solve these positions. That said I personally would go all out with the 1 or 2 targeted signings at the young guy who could provide above average production at these positions (Abreau or Tanaka are the ones that come to mind right now). I really don't care if they do one guy, but I'd much rather them fork out the money for one of them to shore that up then to sign a bunch of lower upside guys as they've done in years past. Is it risky? Yes. Will this one contract cripple the team? Not really, but personally I'd rather do that than go after the Lincecums, Johnsons, or the Santanas of the world. There's a ton more risk there and in some cases, much less upside (which is why they will be cheaper).

 

That said, I'm not convinced they will do it. I hold out some hope for Tanaka, b/c all they have to do is win the posting fee to get sole permission to negotiate with him, but like others said, there's history here... and I'm not comfortable with it.

[Mike Sixel]

The Twins could add a power hitter with a good avg and one or two starters. If they don't bring Morneau back, they need someone to replace him in the lineup. Correia, Albers, Deduno (if he's healthy) should be in the rotation. They could sign Pelfrey for another one year deal. That would leave one vacant spot in the rotation.

 

Yuck, that would be a disaster of a staff. I'm not sure why anyone likes this idea, frankly.

 

Nick is right, they could be competitive next year. Tanaka turns out to be a 3, Gibson turns out to be a 3, Sano plays 2/3 of a year, Ellsbury adds 4-6 WAR over Hicks from this year....you get 10-15 more wins right there, then with a full year of Arcia, not a disaster from Willingham, a full year of good Dozier..... It takes money and courage. That doesn't count Abreu, or a 2nd FA starting pitcher.

[howieramone1406390264]

I get really tired of hearing the "Twins won't compete until 2015 so there's no point in spending" refrain. Just a loser's mentality that I pray Terry Ryan does not share.

 

Someone convince me that this could not be a decent team next year if the Twins got lucky on a couple FA starters. You add, say, an effective Ervin Santana + Ubaldo Jimenez on top of Gibson, Diamond (or whichever guy rises) and Correia (who is at some point hopefully replaced by Meyer) and you've got a rotation that could compete. They've already got a solid bullpen and I think an offense led by Mauer, Arcia, Sano, Willingham, Dozier and eventually Buxton can certainly do the job.

 

 

This is totally fair, but I'd also note that we're looking at a unique situation so past precedence does not necessarily apply. When have the Twins ever been so far below their projected spending cap with salary commitments? Failing to sign at least one or two significant players would be like trotting out a $25M payroll in the Metrodome days.

 

The Twins will compete in 2014, but they won't go for the jugular like Kansas City, by trading Buxton or Sano. If Ryan finds value, no doubt he will spend this off season.

 

Many posters have discussed what Terry Ryan has never done. What millions of loyal Twins fans remember most is, Ryan has never failed at rebuilding the Twins.

[Shane Wahl]

I get a little scared (no, more than a little scared) when I start seeing people talk about the Twins going after any FA who aren't starting pitchers. All efforts and all that sweet, sweet Pohlad money needs to go to starting pitchers on the market first. Wait until 2015? Why? It would be nice to not sign anyone to a mere one-year deal this offseason so that they are still around in 2015, sure.

 

As far as first base goes . . . Mauer is going to get ample time there. Parmelee and Colabello can platoon the rest of the time (by the way, Colabello's power doesn't seem to be going anywhere so he could fairly easily provide double digit bombs next year even in a limited role).

 

I have to think that Rosario isn't going to be with the Twins until June at the earliest, so they can still role out Florimon and Dozier and have that excellent defense in place. After that, working a Rosario/Dozier platoon (don't start with me USAChief . . . . .!) for a bit to get Rosario acclimated in June and July isn't such a bad thought either. And Dozier can either move over to SS (????) or Rosario can DH a bit, or Dozier can backup at SS and 3B (????) when not playing 2B. And DH? Well, even if Willingham and Doumit are gone, there are other bats like Pinto's, Colabello's Arcia's, Mauer's, and Plouffe's to put there.

 

So . . . back to that dang starting pitching . . .

[nicksaviking]

The Twins will compete in 2014, but they won't go for the jugular like Kansas City, by trading Buxton or Sano. If Ryan finds value, no doubt he will spend this off season.

 

Many posters have discussed what Terry Ryan has never done. What millions of loyal Twins fans remember most is, Ryan has never failed at rebuilding the Twins.

 

You must not have been following the Twins during the first rebuild attempt from 1995-1998. That was a disaster. So he's basically 1-1 when it comes to rebuilds, not exactly proof positive he will succeed in his third attempt.

[StormJH1]

I actually think I agree with Nick's underlying premise, which is that the Twins are more interested in spending than we think they are. But I think they had that same attitude LAST offseason, as well. The problem is that they show up to these negotiations with a late 90's perspective on what players should cost, and there's always at least one other team that's willing to overpay.

 

That being said, of the "mid-tier" starting pitching options from last season, how many of them actually would've been a significant help? Anibal Sanchez re-signed fairly quickly, and ended up getting more "elite" money than people expected. I guess Jeremy Guthrie and Brandon McCarthy have been okay, but neither of them would've been a clear-cut "ace", even on this lackluster staff. The chances of at least one of Deduno, Gibson, Hendriks, etc. emerging and giving you that same exact production for FAR less money is always going to appeal to the Twins over free agency, and probably rightfully so.

 

There's really no "half measure" solution to a bad pitching staff. Either you spend $80 million+ to buy a top-tier pitcher, or you wait until you develop them yourself. Otherwise, you're just perpetually adding replacement level crap.

[jay]

So, 50M is where you draw the line? Why that number? If payroll is at 60M, that somehow backs up your thinking? It'd be a dropoff of another 20M off this year's payroll before even taking into account the extra 25M coming in.

 

That's a fair point. I used 'range' later because of that. Although I wouldn't support it, it's easy to see the possibility of a further drop from this year. Even getting to a floor of $60M or $70m would require that $10-20m go somewhere.

 

Historical trends are pretty compelling. Certainly more so than hypothetical scenario building. I hope it happens, but please don't portray sensible hypotheticals as anything more than that.

 

I think we all hope it happens, I'm just trying to acknowledge that things look a little different and have something stronger than the same hope we went into last off-season with.

[Jim Crikket]

I think most of us have some level of confidence that the rebuild will be at least moderately successful at some point.

 

Some of us, however, see no reason why fans should have to wait several more years to see any success at all while that internal rebuild is taking place. "Because that's the way TR has always done it," is not a good reason to accept it. However, it's a pretty compelling reason to expect it.

[Alex]

The Twins will compete in 2014, but they won't go for the jugular like Kansas City, by trading Buxton or Sano. If Ryan finds value, no doubt he will spend this off season.

 

Many posters have discussed what Terry Ryan has never done. What millions of loyal Twins fans remember most is, Ryan has never failed at rebuilding the Twins.

 

If by success we mean basically doing nothing and waiting (mostly) for prospects that were acquired by someone else with a half decade or more of time between competitive seasons, I agree. He'll probably succeed.

[Rick Niedermann]

I hope they go all in on Tanaka. He's the only FA pitcher that would excite me. But it will never happen. So we may as well get used to the re-treads like Pelfrey and Corriea. And hope that Meyer, May and Gibson actually develop into the pitchers they have been hyped to be.

[John Bonnes]

The Twins payroll, if they don't sign anyone this offseason, will be about $60M. That's assuming they don't trade away Doumit/Parmelee/Burton/Perkins and they bring back arb-eligible guys like Plouffe/Duensing/Swarzak/Roenicke. It does not include bringing back free agents like Pelfrey.

 

If you take out the money that the Twins didn't pay Morneau/Carroll/Butera but keep the committments to Nishioka/Blackburn, the Twins spent just under $80M this year.

 

Per Cott's, that's down from $100M the year before and $113M in 2011. The last time the Twins had a payroll below $60M was back in 2008.

 

I'd be interested in hearing what people think the number will be next year on Opening Day. If you think the Twins are going to spend $30M on the free agent market, the means you're looking at the Twins raising payroll by $10M next year to $90M.

 

And if you think the payroll will hold steady at $80M, then they'll have $20M to spend. Odds are, that isn't going to get even two above average pitchers.

[TheLeviathan]

I think we all hope it happens, I'm just trying to acknowledge that things look a little different and have something stronger than the same hope we went into last off-season with.

 

The scenario is different, the man making the calls is not. As I said, I think this is far more about Ryan's principles. Guess we will see what kind of flexibility they allow.

[Nick Nelson]

And if you think the payroll will hold steady at $80M, then they'll have $20M to spend. Odds are, that isn't going to get even two above average pitchers.

It probably gets you one above-average pitcher and one decent lotto ticket. And, without looking too deeply, I have to presume that $80M would still be well, well below the stated "51% of revenue" payroll baseline.

[Alex]

The Twins payroll, if they don't sign anyone this offseason, will be about $60M. That's assuming they don't trade away Doumit/Parmelee/Burton/Perkins and they bring back arb-eligible guys like Plouffe/Duensing/Swarzak/Roenicke. It does not include bringing back free agents like Pelfrey.

 

If you take out the money that the Twins didn't pay Morneau/Carroll/Butera but keep the committments to Nishioka/Blackburn, the Twins spent just under $80M this year.

 

Per Cott's, that's down from $100M the year before and $113M in 2011. The last time the Twins had a payroll below $60M was back in 2008.

 

I'd be interested in hearing what people think the number will be next year on Opening Day. If you think the Twins are going to spend $30M on the free agent market, the means you're looking at the Twins raising payroll by $10M next year to $90M.

 

And if you think the payroll will hold steady at $80M, then they'll have $20M to spend. Odds are, that isn't going to get even two above average pitchers.

 

I think the payroll for next year drop by 5-10 million but it's possible it will drop by $15M. At most, I imagine the Twins signing a decent FA and one or two journeymen types, but I wouldn't be surprised if their signings ar similar to last season. When combined with possible trades of veterans, I don't see the payroll even close to holding steady.

 

 

I do hope I'm wrong.

[Boom Boom]

I'd be interested in hearing what people think the number will be next year on Opening Day.

 

$70 mil. One more Correia-type and a Pelfrey-type injury reclamation project or two.

[John Bonnes]

And, without looking too deeply, I have to presume that $80M would still be well, well below the stated "51% of revenue" payroll baseline.

 

I would agree with that. It seems like it would be closer to $100M. I'd want to break down that analysis a little, but off the top of my head, that seems more likely.

[Dman]

I don't think think TR is going to spend on FA's. He might try for Tanaka but only if he doesn't have to over pay in a bidding war. I agree with others that he will either trade for pitching or essentially use what he has on the farm. I really think the plan is to build from within through the draft. I don't think he cares how much money the Twins have to spend he is going to stick with that plan. I think this is a typical. A's, Pittsburgh, Royals, Houston type rebuild. Be bad, build up the farm, make some trades. Hopefully in time be good for several years with farm replenishing key players as you inevitably lose some over time. Personally I don't think TR believes FA is an efficient way to build your team and he is apparently willing to live or die with that philosophy. He likely will not sign a large FA contract this year but I hope he proves me wrong.

[jay]

What if the money that TR left on the table is repurposed as Tanaka's posting fee?

[PseudoSABR]

Though it was a decade ago, TR has acquired expensive-ish starting pitching with Kenny Rogers and Rick Reed (and though we'd prefer them not to sign those type of guys), and that was to supplement already competitive teams. However, things are different now, with more windfall of cash and more legitimate prospect core emerging, the Twins probably have an imperative to spend money and perhaps take more risks. I'm fine with nearly any pitcher as long as the deal is no longer than three years (save Tanaka); the deals would be short enough that they shouldn't interfere with paying the emerging core. Payroll will be low enough that it might be worth the risk to acquire tradeable assets whether we are actually competitive in 2014 or not.

[twinsnorth49]

What if the money that TR left on the table is repurposed as Tanaka's posting fee?

 

 

Sorry, couldn't resist, I just think it's about this likely.

[PseudoSABR]

What if the money that TR left on the table is repurposed as Tanaka's posting fee?

That could very well be their plan, but if they fail to net Tanaka, it would be a failed use of resources, for sure.

[howieramone1406390264]

What if the money that TR left on the table is repurposed as Tanaka's posting fee?

The Twin's organization has unlimited gold. Ryan has said on numerous occasions anytime he has gone to the Pohlads with a special request to improve the ball club, he has always got their approval. The only thing that constrains Ryan is getting value for the money spent. Those of us who are unfortunate enough to be in an employer-employee relationship can probably relate to this.

 

The baseline of 51%-52% of revenue has gone the way of the dinosaur. The proposed model was never legally binding nor intended to be taken as such. I'm sure Ryan thinks about it as often as he does where Joe Benson happens to be.

[Winston Smith]

The Twins payroll, if they don't sign anyone this offseason, will be about $60M. That's assuming they don't trade away Doumit/Parmelee/Burton/Perkins and they bring back arb-eligible guys like Plouffe/Duensing/Swarzak/Roenicke. It does not include bringing back free agents like Pelfrey.

 

If you take out the money that the Twins didn't pay Morneau/Carroll/Butera but keep the committments to Nishioka/Blackburn, the Twins spent just under $80M this year.

 

Per Cott's, that's down from $100M the year before and $113M in 2011. The last time the Twins had a payroll below $60M was back in 2008.

 

I'd be interested in hearing what people think the number will be next year on Opening Day. If you think the Twins are going to spend $30M on the free agent market, the means you're looking at the Twins raising payroll by $10M next year to $90M.

 

And if you think the payroll will hold steady at $80M, then they'll have $20M to spend. Odds are, that isn't going to get even two above average pitchers.

 

My worst guess is that he will sign 2 pitchers in the Kazmir/Hughes mold spend about 15 and the patroll will end up about 70m.

 

A questions somewhat related did Ryan spend all the Int. singing money he was allowed?

[Alex]

 

The baseline of 51%-52% of revenue has gone the way of the dinosaur. The proposed model was never legally binding nor intended to be taken as such. I'm sure Ryan thinks about it as often as he does where Joe Benson happens to be.

 

I believe they are getting that number from and interview and direct quote from the Twins organization, so it's probably a guideline for Ryan.

[ThePuck]

 

The baseline of 51%-52% of revenue has gone the way of the dinosaur. The proposed model was never legally binding nor intended to be taken as such.

 

Jim Pohlad said that is supposed to be goal in most years about 3 years ago. That was hardly long ago. But yeah, now that they have the mostly publicly funded new ballpark, and they are reaping the benefits of it, I guess there is no need to live up to their end of the bargain. I mean, they said they needed the new ballpark in order to keep competitive financially with payroll...that was their main reason they told the public as to why they needed a new park. With where payroll is now, they are under 2007 payroll (which occurred while in the dome) when taking into account inflation...and baseball players pay has hardly just matched inflation. Next year, it will be even lower. Why did they need a new mostly publically funded ballpark again? Other than to get a huge boost on how much the team was worth?

 

And why are some fans so eager to just excuse/justify the lack of spending as if there wasn't an inherent agreement between the Pohlads and the public? Your post makes it seem like it's okay with you for them to stay lower than the 50%, not only in rebuilding years, but all the time.

[nicksaviking]

The Twin's organization has unlimited gold. Ryan has said on numerous occasions anytime he has gone to the Pohlads with a special request to improve the ball club, he has always got their approval. The only thing that constrains Ryan is getting value for the money spent. Those of us who are unfortunate enough to be in an employer-employee relationship can probably relate to this.

 

What does this mean, you're sleeping with your boss? What on earth does this have to do with the Twins 2014 payroll?

 

 

The baseline of 51%-52% of revenue has gone the way of the dinosaur. The proposed model was never legally binding nor intended to be taken as such. I'm sure Ryan thinks about it as often as he does where Joe Benson happens to be.

 

So the Twins are backing out of this stated but non-binding agreement and they are to be applauded?

[howieramone1406390264]

Jim Pohlad said that is supposed to be goal in most years about 3 years ago. That was hardly long ago. But yeah, now that they have the mostly publicly funded new ballpark, and they are reaping the benefits of it, I guess there is no need to live up to their end of the bargain. I mean, they said they needed the new ballpark in order to keep competitive financially with payroll...that was their main reason they told the public as to why they needed a new park. With where payroll is now, they are under 2007 payroll (which occurred while in the dome) when taking into account inflation...and baseball players pay has hardly just matched inflation. Next year, it will be even lower. Why did they need a new mostly publically funded ballpark again? Other than to get a huge boost on how much the team was worth?

 

And why are some fans so eager to just excuse/justify the lack of spending as if there wasn't an inherent agreement between the Pohlads and the public? Your post makes it seem like it's okay with you for them to stay lower than the 50%, not only in rebuilding years, but all the time.

 

They can do whatever they want to do. This is America. We can choose to be fans, or we can choose not to be. This is not the first time a small minority felt they got a bad deal on a publically funded project. In fact if they did it all over again, I bet the downtown merchants would pickup the full tab.