Article: Why the Twins Will Spend This Offseason

[Jack Torse]

Get back to me when for the first time they sign a single meaningful player where they had to outbid other teams. Like a meaningful player before Xmas. Delusional.

[TheLeviathan]

I appreciate the effort by Nick, but there were similar arguments to be made last year too. Until we actually do it, skepticism is really the only justifiable position.

 

Frankly, this is more about Ryan's principles than it is about circumstances.

[Joe A. Preusser]

Don't lose sight of the goal here: A return to relevance.

The Twins can compete in 2015 and beyond by only adding 2 quality arms. They don't even have to be true number 1s, they can both be 2s. Our in house options for SP will fill out 3-5 just fine. By FA or trade we MUST add those two quality SP over the next two offseasons. The rest will fall into place easily. Ryan (hell, even I could) can put an offense together around Sano, Arcia, Buxton, et al very easily. The BP is set. Those two great starting pitchers are the key, and a GM as savvy as Ryan knows it.

[MichiganTwins]

I agree that are situation is much better than last year. I also think that the Twins are going to spend. I just dont want to have to see PJ Walters pitching in the majors for the Twins. I dont think signing Pelfrey does all that much for us. I think Phil Hughes would be good, and then I think we should take a risk on Kazmir or Ubaldo or Johnson.

 

Also, Seth which pitchers do I think deserve a shot? Gibson needs to have a spot for sure. Correia has a spot whether we like it or not, Diamond should compete as well as Deduno (only because he got hurt) I am uncertain if Hendriks should be given a shot to start, Worley needs to earn the shot at having a shot to compete, and I not sold on Albers (he is a mystery of what he can bring to the major league table. Also, Meyer and hopefully May might be in our rotation next year. I think we need to give one of our in house optiuons a shot while we wait for either of those two. So you could still have room for two FA pitchers and maybe throw in a third risky one to compete with the in house options.

 

As for positions, I really dont see the necessity to spend money. Cather we are fine. 1b could be a place to upgrade depending on how much Mauer plays and the Parmalee/Colabello situation. 2b is good. 3b can be held my PLouffe in the off-season and even into the season while we wait for the fast approaching Sano. So no need there. SS- I think Florimon has been pretty decent obviously we want him to hit a bit more, but his defense has been good. We can always use an upgrade there. However, the free agent market is not very good at SS and we cant forget the Cuban may not be able to stick at short. OF- Well we have a crap ton of OFers. Buxton is coming up soon so we dont really have the option of a long term deal. We have Arcia and Hicks who should be in the lineup everyday soon. The hammer is hopefully heating up and can DH too or play left. We have a million 4th OFers. So I do not see a huge need there either. Bullpen is fine and we have guys who can be called up too.

 

So it has to be SP, and it seems to me that this team could be decently competitive if we sign a couple good SPs, who can at least keep us in the game. The future looks really good, but we need to start winning more games and I think we need to spend in FA now because in the next few years we will be paying a lot for our young stars.

[pierre75275]

Going after Linsicoum (sp?) wont happen if the Giants give him a quality offer...which they most likely will do. I dont see much of a point in going after oft injured pitchers like johnson and haren and santana hoping they will save the franchise. See rich harden and joel zumya. That enterprise is usually fruitless. Go after Tanka make a run at Abreu mayb sign one of Hughes Johnson or one of the Santanas plus tanka. If we cant land Abreu sign the current Pirates first baseman...I heard he isnt too bad and has ties to MN.

[Alex]

With regard to qualifying offers and draft picks: The Twins first round pick would be protected. So, if the Twins could get a lower risk higher upside player that could help them now and in a couple of years when they are more competitive, it might be worth looking at. I'm not sure Lincecum is that guy, but I'd definitely keep that option open.

[Thrylos]

Spending on free agents is, by definition, the riskiest and most expensive way to acquire players. The most over-valued assets in baseball today (IMO) are prospects. Nobody wants to give up their controlled, high upside prospects. So if you are willing to do so, (see Oakland A's), you may be able to acquire a real haul of good players, to fill many holes, and accelerate your path to contention. The A's got a lot for Trevor Cahill, Gio Gonzalez, etc - which of the Twins blue chippers would you be willing to trade to upgrade the starting rotation? Would you travel the road blazed by the Royals?

 

The A's won exactly as many world series as the Royals the last 15 years and have been about as competitive. The Royals are spendthrift (overspending for mediocrity) and not really spending. Ryan would fit right in...

 

I'd look at the Rangers, Red Sox and Tigers more as models than the As. You look at successful teams not mediocre teams as models if you want to succeed above mediocrity. The Twins have been blessed with a lot of mediocrity the past decade before they moved on to suckage

[jay]

I've made this argument in a few places and this topic was about to be my first blog post. Thank you for sparing everyone, Nick. Nice article.

[Mike Sixel]

The As signed a Cuban for millions and millions, by the way....

 

1. DH, they have none, you can sign a Cuban for that, he can also play 1B when mauer is not.

2. Ellsbury (since Seth asked where else can they spend money)....Hicks can't hit, Arcia can't field, and besides, they have the money and he's a 4-5 WAR player. Put him in LF when Buxton is up, and you have an Elite defense. It's not like having 4 good OFers (or maybe only 3) is a BAD idea.

3. Tanaka, since they have no other obligations, spending any amount of money is probably worth it to this team, indeed, he's worth more to this team than most other teams.

 

Oh, and Nick forgot to add (I think) that they get $25MM more in revenue next year, so even going to last year's number would put them behind last year's number, in effect.

 

But ya, until RYAN spends money, I won't believe he'll spend money. It wasn't the dome, because McPhail had no issue spending money in the dome.

[jay]

Until we actually do it, skepticism is really the only justifiable position.

 

But ya, until RYAN spends money, I won't believe he'll spend money. It wasn't the dome, because McPhail had no issue spending money in the dome.

 

These aren't terribly unreasonable positions to take, but Nick lays out a pretty good case for why that won't be. Is there anything else to support your views outside of 'TR has never done it'?

[ThePuck]

The A's won exactly as many world series as the Royals the last 15 years and have been about as competitive.

 

Are you really saying that the As and Royals have been about the same competitively over the last 15 years? Or am I misunderstanding what you're saying?

[Guest USAFChief]

These aren't terribly unreasonable positions to take, but Nick lays out a pretty good case for why that won't be. Is there anything else to support your views outside of 'TR has never done it'?

Not to speak for others, but I think "not terribly unreasonable" undersells their positions by a lot.

 

"TR has never done it" is quite reasonable at this point, IMO. In fact, I'd go so far as to say its what I expect.

[jay]

Is there anything else to support your views outside of 'TR has never done it'?

 

Not to speak for others, but I think "not terribly unreasonable" undersells their positions by a lot.

 

"TR has never done it" is quite reasonable at this point, IMO. In fact, I'd go so far as to say its what I expect.

 

So.... no?

[Winston Smith]

"Is there anything else to support your views outside of 'TR has never done it'?"

 

Isn't the reverse the real question? Is there anything that Ryan has ever done to support the idea that suddenly he will spend money?

[jay]

"Is there anything else to support your views outside of 'TR has never done it'?"

 

Isn't the reverse the real question? Is there anything that Ryan has ever done to support the idea that suddenly he will spend money?

 

The ideas laid out in the article that this thread is attached to?

 

You're correct that he hasn't done anything yet, but the whole premise is to show why the scenario isn't the same. I'll be happy to eat crow if payroll is $50m next year, but I just don't see how that'll be.

[Winston Smith]

The ideas laid out in the article that this thread is attached to?

 

How do the ideas in the article translate into action likely taken by Ryan when Ryan has never acted that way before?

 

It may be that Ryan will change his ways this winter, but what is more likely he stays the course and continues doing what he has for 15 years or suddenly change how he operates?

[jay]

How do the ideas in the article translate into action likely taken by Ryan when Ryan has never acted that way before?

 

It may be that Ryan will change his ways this winter, but what is more likely he stays the course and continues doing what he has for 15 years or suddenly change how he operates?

 

So again, is there anything else to support your views outside of 'TR has never done it'? If the answer is no -- that's perfectly fine, and you're entitled to that opinion. Factually, the only way payroll isn't $50m (or in that range) next year is for Ryan to do things differently either through free agency, the int'l market, or taking on salary in trade. I think it has to happen.

[Badsmerf]

This is a make or break offseason for Terry Ryan. He has the ability to spend money and improve the club and there is talent available to do it. If he fails, he has to be fired. There is no other option. I'm hopeful, but at the same time have pretty low expectations. I'm ok if he fails and is fired, I'm not a fan of his one bit (I actually think he is a pretty terrible GM).

 

Looking at youtube of Tanaka, he looks alright. I have to wonder if his control of the FB is good enough to succeed in the MLB. Darvish was a different type of pitcher, which why he has succeeded so much. I'd much rather get guys like Lincecum that have shown success and might just need a little change to return to form.

[nicksaviking]

I also think the ulcers it would cause him will keep Ryan from the bidding wars on the bigger (medium) named free agents. I suppose it's my nature to believe in historical trends as opposed to hope and faith.

 

But perhaps he could get a pitcher through trade. Ryan does have a history of this in the off season.

 

One trade came to mind, does everyone think CC Sabathia is completely washed up? He's owed about $100 million over the next four years including a 2017 vesting option. If the Yankees want to clear some payroll so they can both stay under the luxery tax threshhold AND retain Robinson Cano, it's reasonable to think a buyer likely could get the Yankees to eat around half of that salary if the Yankees become motivated to move him.

 

He's big, he's fat but he's still only 33 and only one year removed from seven consecutive years of an ERA+ of 125 or more. If he was on the free agent lists, he would likely still be near the top.

[Boom Boom]

It's true that Ryan will have a lot of money to work with... but I'll believe it when I see it. I could see potentially another trade for a pitching prospect, and another Pelfrey-type signing, but I've been a Twins fan for too long to believe that Ryan will sign a starting pitcher who is better than a Correia or Pavano.

[OldTwinky]

When someone shows you who they are, believe them. Jim Pohlad, Terry Ryan, Dave St. Peter and the rest of the people controlling the Twins have shown us exactly who they are and that's why my educated guess is that they won't bring in any expensive/game changing players via free agency. It'll be more AAAA players that have washed out in their previous org. and low walk no stuff having starting pitchers. It's ALWAYS the same thing with Terry Ryan.

[Jim Crikket]

Nick, I think you've laid out a good case for why the Twins SHOULD do something different this offseason, but I'm with those who don't feel you've convinced me it WILL happen. Many of us have made similar cases every year for the past three or so as to why pitching needs to be shored up and why there's plenty of room in the budget to do so.

 

I expect Ryan to see things the way Seth laid out... that there are young, inexpensive options and reason to believe one or more of them will step up their game. That being the case, TR will not see any reason to get in a bidding contest for what he sees as marginal SP talent.

 

I also think Tanaka is getting so much support here primarily because none of us have actually seen him pitch so nobody has picked up his "flaws" the way we have with guys we've all watched pitch for years.

 

I fully expect the Twins payroll to drop significantly and remain that way until the next wave of internal prospects start hitting arbitration and FA levels, several years from now.

[Alex]

These aren't terribly unreasonable positions to take, but Nick lays out a pretty good case for why that won't be. Is there anything else to support your views outside of 'TR has never done it'?

 

 

People (Seth was the earliest) have laid out other reasons that have nothing to do with TR. for example, in a lot of positions of need, the Twins have young players that are close or near ready. One position of need, 1B, may need to be kept open for Mauer.

[pierre75275]

With regard to qualifying offers and draft picks: The Twins first round pick would be protected. So, if the Twins could get a lower risk higher upside player that could help them now and in a couple of years when they are more competitive, it might be worth looking at. I'm not sure Lincecum is that guy, but I'd definitely keep that option open.

 

Was not aware of that. Is that for one time only or can they sign multiple free agents with qualifying offers? Would they have to give up a later rd pick?

[ThePuck]

The ideas laid out in the article that this thread is attached to?

 

You're correct that he hasn't done anything yet, but the whole premise is to show why the scenario isn't the same. I'll be happy to eat crow if payroll is $50m next year, but I just don't see how that'll be.

 

So, 50M is where you draw the line? Why that number? If payroll is at 60M, that somehow backs up your thinking? It'd be a dropoff of another 20M off this year's payroll before even taking into account the extra 25M coming in.

[Guest USAFChief]

So.... no?

I sincerely hope to be proven gloriously wrong and will gladly proclaim so.

[zenser]

I like the idea Mike Wants Wins suggests with Ellsbury. If Hicks does hit at some point in time, then you could always trade someone not named Buxton. I know there are some mid level starting pitchers out there and I would be ok with Hughes and Tanaka. I am not high on Josh Johnson but if he comes cheap and we sign one or two other pitchers, I could stomach the risk. I just don't want him to be the only SP signing.

 

Are the Twins content with Florimon as SS? Stephen Drew is available and Peralta. Personally, I am not a big fan of Peralta and I don't think they will touch him but he is a decent fielder and a better offensive upgrade. Drew interests me the most if they look to upgrade SS.

[TheLeviathan]

So.... no?

 

Historical trends are pretty compelling. Certainly more so than hypothetical scenario building. I hope it happens, but please don't portray sensible hypotheticals as anything more than that.

[Monkeypaws]

I agree. Tanaka is the prize. I would spent the 90M-110M if he checks out with our scouts.

 

I hope they aren't the same scouts that worked on Nishi....

[Alex]

Was not aware of that. Is that for one time only or can they sign multiple free agents with qualifying offers? Would they have to give up a later rd pick?

 

Not sure how multiples work, but because they pick in the top 10 they lose a 2nd Rd pick instead.