Article: Twins Can Improve Rotation Through Free Agency

[jay]

Hughes has been relatively similar in performance to Jeremy Guthrie. Less track record, but will hit the market at a much younger age (27 vs 33). Guthrie got 3/$25 last offseason. I'd be more than okay with seeing the Twins go 3/$30 or 4/$36.

[Major League Ready]

The middle of the pile sucked, too. If you think you can get a player in search of a championship to the Twins with no other additions, then it is pointless to discuss why they did not sign a top level pitcher.

 

There are at least three four reasons they did not sign a top level reason FA SP. All of them have been discussed here in the past. As a matter of fact, Mackey just discussed this on the air.

 

1. There are 12 or 14 teams with significantly more revenue than the Twins. Some of them have waaaay more money than the Twins. Somehow this very parochial concept gets ignored on a consistent basis as fans expect the Twins win a battle in which they are significantly out-gunned. When at least 10 teams with far more revenue, how is it a surprise other teams are able to bid more? The system, not the Twins create this situation. That’s why other team sports have salary caps.
   
2. Point two follows point one. Historically, a high percentage of FA SPs turn out to be very poor deals. Some of them from the very start. The even higher probability is that they fail in the last couple of years of these long-term deals. Look back 5 years at the top FA SPs and see how those deals faired over the duration of the contract.
   
3. Point three follows points 1&2. The Twins and teams like them in terms of revenue have to get much greater performance per dollar spent and any bad contracts can really limit a team’s options until they are off the books. The effect is even evident in now in teams like the Yankess, Angels, & Blue Jays. Obviously, the Yankees and Angels have a much larger margin of error and are still in trouble as a result of premier free agent acquisitions.
   
4. Timing – Even if they were to take the chance, now is the worst possible timing. Premier free agent pitchers receive 5-6 year deals. If we were to take this kind of risk, it would make far more sense when the Twins young talent has been established at the MLB level. They are not going to contend the next couple years and the big name free agents are generally just past their peak. Do you want that contract on the books now so that in 4-6 years that pitcher is very likely nowhere near as effective as they are today? Would it make a lot more sense to acquire such a pitcher when he will likely make you an immediate contender for as long as they can maintain their performance level?
   

[Kwak]

The Twins won't even pursue any of these guys. I would bet the farm on it. They will sign a couple bums or maybe only 1 FA starter this off season but they won't be a guy who misses bats at an MLB average or higher. It just won't happen because those guys want $$$. Terry Ryan is simply in a competition with himself to shrink payroll as much as possible, judge him by his actions not his words because they are to completely different things, and that is the only logical reason for his actions since returning to the GM's chair.

 

+1. Succintly put.

[cmb0252]

None of these guys excite me. I'm all for the Twins signing some much needed pitching but the FA market is so unimpressive.

[DJL44]

I'd welcome a return of Scott Baker now that he's healthy. I'm also interested in Lincecum, Hughes, Haren, Josh Johnson and Jason Hammel.

 

There are some low wattage lefties that might have a season left. Chris Capuano, Barry Zito, Scott Feldman, Scott Kazmir, Paul Maholm, Joe Saunders and Wandy Rodriguez if he gets bought out. Target Field is built for lefties. How much is Jorge De La Rosa going to get paid?

 

I see a lot more options this offseason than last. They should have about $100M of room in the budget if they really spent 52% of revenue and weren't just stockpiling money for the Pohlad's tax bill.

[ScottyB]

As they said in ET - This is reality Greg. We are talking the Minnesota Twins here. In over 20 years the only significant free agent pitcher the Twins have signed was Jack Morris - because he wanted to pitch at home. Other than that I would say #2 would be Kenny Rogers. The Twins simply have never taken chances on free agents, period. What's the biggest free agent contract of a non-Twins player ever - it is for Willingham, 3 years, $21 million and that's both the highest cost and longest contract. Of the pitchers mentioned, Phill Hughes is making $7,150,000 - he won't be taking a cut. Ervin Santana is making $13,000,000 - he won't be taking a cut. Tim Lincecum is making $22,250,000 - he is unlikely to take a cut, even if his talent seems to be declining. Johan is making $24,644,708 - he might take a cut, maybe $20,000,000 on a one-year deal. And Josh Johnson - he's making $13,750,000 - he might be a buy low guy because of injury, but he won't take much of a cut and will certainly want a bunch of incentives on a one-year deal to rebuild reputation. All of these guys are already making more than the $7,000,000 a year that Willingham took in.

 

Expect Correia back and probably Pelfrey. You might be able to sign a guy like Kazmir, who signed a minor league deal with Cleveland, but at least somewhat re-established himself and might sign a Correia type deal. Hughes might be in play, but I think too many teams with more assets they are willing to use will make offers higher than what Twins will be willing to pay.

 

Ryan is more likely to trade. Maybe go after another buy low guy like Jeremy Hellickson who didn't have a great year. I don't know if there is a trade fit there, but it's something to think about. I don't even know if we have any chips available that anyone would want.

[jorgenswest]

Would it be wise to sign a fly ball pitcher like Hughes and put some duo of Willingham/ Doumit/ Arcia/ Parmelee on the corners?

 

I wonder if defense would be a factor in a pitcher's decision? Maybe only money matters.

 

I also wonder if some pitchers might think twice if Mauer isn't going to be the main catcher next year and Doumit looks to get more playing time at catcher.

[jimbo92107]

Pelfrey, Gibson, Deduno, Correia, Albers, Diamond, Hendriks, DeVries. There's your talent pool, folks. The Twins aren't going to bring in Tim Lincecum, who would rather retire than pitch here. Ervin Santana ain't going anywhere, and Johan ain't Johan anymore.

 

Keep your fingers crossed that Trevor May learns to stop walking batters and Alex Meyer's shoulder holds up. Maybe Pedro Hernandez will learn to keep his turtle curves lower in the zone.

[Willihammer]

I can't get this idea out of my head.

 

2015 ALCS Game 3

 

Min @ NYY

Hughes VS Sabathia

 

7:10 EST

[ThePuck]

I can't get this idea out of my head.

 

They have pills for that...

[Willihammer]

The buy low guy that interests me is Ubaldo. Velo is dropping but the slider and changeup are still there. If someone fixed that delivery, we'd have an ace.

[Willihammer]

On Tanaka today:

What is your take on the ceiling for Tanaka? Most seem to think he can be a #2, not quite Darvish, but still a high level SP, what say you?

Klaw (1:44 PM)

 

 

I have not seen him myself. What I have heard from scouts is that he's less than that.

 

Darvish is arguably the best pitcher in baseball and put up gawdier strikeout numbers in Japan.

 

Tanaka's peripherals look more like Kuroda's and Iwakuma's, with one notable distinction: fewer dingers.

[Vervehound]

Also add Josh Johnson to the list of interesting free agents who can miss bats but is difficult to value.

 

Looks like a good "buy low" candidate due to bad luck.

 

that's a very good candidate, imo. it's not every year that we can learn from the pirates but with reclamation projects like burnett and liriano leading they way this year, they've found the right buy-low types.

[Major League Ready]

As they said in ET - This is reality Greg. We are talking the Minnesota Twins here. In over 20 years the only significant free agent pitcher the Twins have signed was Jack Morris - because he wanted to pitch at home. Other than that I would say #2 would be Kenny Rogers. The Twins simply have never taken chances on free agents, period. What's the biggest free agent contract of a non-Twins player ever - it is for Willingham, 3 years, $21 million and that's both the highest cost and longest contract. .

 

The Twins were also near the bottom of the leauge in revenue for most of the past 20 years until Target field came along. Has Oakland or Tampa Bay signed an elite FA SP? Maybe they have but I don't remember that happening. What I remember is them trading alot of premier talent away because they could not afford to keep them. The Twins could not have afforded to keep Mauer in the dome days.

 

The St. Louis model or perhaps a modified form of the Rays model is what the Twins will need to follow. Has St. Louis signed a premier FA SP? I am asking in earnest. I really don't follow the NL much.

[ThePuck]

The Twins were also near the bottom of the leauge in revenue for most of the past 20 years until Target field came along. Has Oakland or Tampa Bay signed an elite FA SP? Maybe they have but I don't remember that happening. What I remember is them trading alot of premier talent away because they could not afford to keep them. The Twins could not have afforded to keep Mauer in the dome days.

 

The St. Louis model or perhaps a modified form of the Rays model is what the Twins will need to follow. Has St. Louis signed a premier FA SP? I am asking in earnest. I really don't follow the NL much.

 

Oakland and TB know how to target quality pitching by trade or draft...and they are good at developing pitching. Why would they go buy pitching? When we can do THAT, people might not push to go get it elsewhere.

 

BTW, as payroll sits now, the Metrodome could have handled it...

[Jack Torse]

Seeing is believing and until I see them sign a single high or evn quasi high caliber FA pitcher/player, where they have to outbid other clubs, I can't dream of them signing any player other than those who have lost all interest from other ML clubs. The Pohlads are shameful in their cheap approach and I care less about the club because of it.

[Alex]

There are at least three four reasons they did not sign a top level reason FA SP. All of them have been discussed here in the past. As a matter of fact, Mackey just discussed this on the air.

 

1. There are 12 or 14 teams with significantly more revenue than the
   
2. Point two follows point one. Historically, a high percentage of FA SPs turn out to be very poor deals.
   
3. Point three follows points 1&2. The Twins and teams like them in terms of revenue have to get much greater performance per dollar spent and any bad contracts can really limit a team’s options until they are off the books.
   
4. Timing
   

 

This is the same Phil Mackey that predicted an improved rotation?

 

I can't disagree with what you say outright, but there are finer points that could be looked at.

 

1. The Twins have far more payroll flexibility now than ever. They have one significant contract. It wouldn't hurt them to take a shot at a higher upside guy than those they've recently gone after by opening up the pocketbook a bit. That doesn't mean they need to go $100M for 5 years...but something...

 

2. Sure to some extent. But, we need to get past the idea of overpaying. You can rarely expect to get dollar value on FA. You might have to overpay to actually get better. This is especially true of the Twins as they (as you say) are not the Rays or A's and haven't been able to do more with less. The alternative is to continue to be terrible.

 

3. Follows point 1 and 2. The Twins have limited options in other methods. They haven't done a good job of drafting or developing starting pitching, so they've been terrible. This also becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy. If the Twins keep losing, they'll lose revenue and then have less room to assume risk.

 

4. Teams can suddenly get better and there's nothing wrong with simply making a team better. I'm not in the boat that says wait because you might be waiting forever. Trying to time picking up FA on prospects that might never make it is just as high risk.

 

 

The bottom line for me is that the Twins haven't done a good job with whatever they're doing right now, especially with regards to starting pitching. You keep mentioning that other they are in the same boat as other teams, but there are other teams that are doing it better than they are with the same or less.

 

They really have left themselves only one option in the near future for improvement and I think they should use it because I'd like to see a more competitive team next year.

 

I'm at the point where I'd like to see them at least attempt to improve and fail (which doesn't have to mean a stupid signing, but a bit more risk would go a long way).

[Alex]

The St. Louis model or perhaps a modified form of the Rays model is what the Twins will need to follow. Has St. Louis signed a premier FA SP? I am asking in earnest. I really don't follow the NL much.

 

Depends on what you consider Wainwright. They locked him up before he became a FA for 5 years to the tune of 19.5M per year. So, no they didn't sign him as a FA, but they are paying a premier pitcher top dollar.

[Oxtung]

I would be interested in Lincecum or Josh Johnson especially. He seems like an ideal buy low bounce back candidate. I would be OK with Phil Hughes on a 3 year contract but he is going to command much more than that. He is a #4 pitcher in a championship rotation.

 

Instead of most of the rest I would be more interested in throwing big money at a 1 year contract with the hopes of flipping at the deadline (of course eating a bunch of that salary). Kuroda, Colon and Baker are options.

[Willihammer]

I guess Girardi demoted Hughes to the bullpen on Wednesday

 

New York Yankees demote Phil Hughes to bullpen - ESPN New York

 

Yep, should fit in perfectly around here.

[Trevor0333]

The article says the Twins CAN improve the rotation through free agency but then down plays the possibility of any of the listed players coming to the team. How does that help improve the rotation?

 

The 3 likely rotation locks going forward. Deduno, Corriea, & Gibson leaving 2 spots open. Corriea is on the last year so that opens up another spot by 2015 or even Sept 2014. I expect Alex Meyer to come in by mid season, given his missed time this season I suspect the team to want to start him off in AAA next year.

 

That still leaves 2 rotation spots that need to be filled. The Albers & Hendriks need to be in AAA & only injury replacements at best. May is more in the 2015 picture IMO. Realistically you want 2 pitchers to bridge a 2 year gap. The 2 SP I hope the Twins will go for, Tim Hudson & Colby Lewis.

 

Hudson will preffer to stay in Atlanta but they will atleast wait on him and feel the market out. 2/20 would be enough to ward them off and the 2nd guaranteed year should entice him to sign. 10 mill a year is steep but the payroll will be low until raises for some of these younger players kick in and he will be off the books in time for that. Hudson was very good until breaking his ankle on that freak play.

 

Lewis missing this year mainly due to hip issues that required surgery will be another year removed from that elbow surgery leaving his arm strong & primed for a rebound next year. Given what Texas gave up for Garza I would imagine they will focus on resigning him & hopefully taking their attention away from Lewis. A 2 year 15-20 mill range deal should be enough to bring him to MN.

 

Both these deals are overpay but they give you the short years that you want when the young talented pitchers finally coming through the system are established.

 

2014: Hudson; Lewis; Deduno; Corriea; Gibson with Meyer being a injury callup or taking Corrieas place possibly mid season.

2015: Hudson; Lewis; Deduno; Meyer; Gibson with May filling the same role Meyer did the previous year.

[nicksaviking]

The middle of the pile sucked, too. If you think you can get a player in search of a championship to the Twins with no other additions, then it is pointless to discuss why they did not sign a top level pitcher.

 

Right, but as you already acknowledged, I did not say top, I said middle. And if the middle tier pitchers won't come to Minnesota because they are not showing a stronger desire to win based on their commitment to the free agent market, well there is a clear solution for that.

 

I would be zero disappointed in Ryan right now if he had shown some guts and signed a pitcher with upside who ended up failing. Every indication is that Ryan thinks making a mistake on a decent sized free agent deal will be the end of the organization. It won't, and not even close. Just do it damn it. Once. Now. So what if you miss, it cannot possibly harm the club any more than the inaction has harmed it. At least most of us would applaud the effort.

[Alex]

Deduno's injury is a serious concern and I'd definitely avoid locking him into a rotation spot -- sadly for him personally as well as for Twins' fans since he's been our best pitcher.

[beckmt]

Deduno may be a surgery candidate and I am not counting on him. That is why we need 2 very good FA pitchers and 1 filler type(Pelfrey might work here).

[Don't Feed the Greed Guy]

1. The Twins have far more payroll flexibility now than ever. They have one significant contract. It wouldn't hurt them to take a shot at a higher upside guy than those they've recently gone after by opening up the pocketbook a bit. That doesn't mean they need to go $100M for 5 years...but something...

 

The talent in the organization is in position players who won't be arbitration-eligible until 2016+.

 

1b: Open (Parm? Colabello? Mauer? Free agent?)

2b: Dozier: arb, 2016; free agent 2019; Rosario: 2017+

ss: Florimon: 2016; 2019

3b: Sano: 2017+

Rf: Arcia: 2016; 2019

Cf: Hicks: 2016; 2019; Presley: 2015; 2018

Lf: Buxton: 2017+

C: Pinto: 2017+; Herrmann; 2016; 2019.

 

So, I wouldn't be surprised if Terry Ryan goes after two more Correia/Pelfrey-level arms for 2014-15 ($20-30 M). Or, perhaps a deeper push for a Johnson, Hughes, Lincecum, Santana-level pitcher who could emerge as an ace.

 

With the $ he has saved: (a) with Blackburn and Morneau off the payroll, and ( with Willingham and Doumit due to go by the end of next year, or via trade--Ryan is due to spend some dough.

 

By 2015 we can hope that May, Meyer, Berrios, Gibson, etc... will take command, but the time is now to roll the dice on one or two more free agent starters. Financially, there is more to lose by NOT entering into the free agent market--in order to put a marketable team on the field. As my old man said, "You've got to crack some eggs in order to make an omelet."

[Major League Ready]

This is the same Phil Mackey that predicted an improved rotation?

 

I can't disagree with what you say outright, but there are finer points that could be looked at.

 

1. The Twins have far more payroll flexibility now than ever. They have one significant contract. It wouldn't hurt them to take a shot at a higher upside guy than those they've recently gone after by opening up the pocketbook a bit. That doesn't mean they need to go $100M for 5 years...but something...

 

2. Sure to some extent. But, we need to get past the idea of overpaying. You can rarely expect to get dollar value on FA. You might have to overpay to actually get better. This is especially true of the Twins as they (as you say) are not the Rays or A's and haven't been able to do more with less. The alternative is to continue to be terrible.

 

3. Follows point 1 and 2. The Twins have limited options in other methods. They haven't done a good job of drafting or developing starting pitching, so they've been terrible. This also becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy. If the Twins keep losing, they'll lose revenue and then have less room to assume risk.

 

4. Teams can suddenly get better and there's nothing wrong with simply making a team better. I'm not in the boat that says wait because you might be waiting forever. Trying to time picking up FA on prospects that might never make it is just as high risk.

 

 

The bottom line for me is that the Twins haven't done a good job with whatever they're doing right now, especially with regards to starting pitching. You keep mentioning that other they are in the same boat as other teams, but there are other teams that are doing it better than they are with the same or less.

 

They really have left themselves only one option in the near future for improvement and I think they should use it because I'd like to see a more competitive team next year.

 

I'm at the point where I'd like to see them at least attempt to improve and fail (which doesn't have to mean a stupid signing, but a bit more risk would go a long way).

 

I think we are on the same page but I probably did not leave that impression. I could not agree more they have the room and need to get something done. The only distinction is I believe it would be a big mistake do go beyond 4 years right now and 3 would definitely be preferable. That is going to rule out any elite FA SPs. In theory, a Dempster type deal would fit our needs right now. Of course, he has not been very good this year but that risk will always be present with FA SPs a bit past their prime. Some continue to get done like Kyle Lohse, others slide.

 

I could get behind the acquisition of a top FA if we were KCs position right now. To put that in Twins perspective, lets just say that Sano, Buxton, and Arcia pan out as expected. Let's say just for fun that Dozier continues to play like he has in the 2nd half, Hicks becomes the solid but not spectacular offensive player we believe he can be and Florimon improves a bit to hit 250. That would be the time to go out and take a chance on an elite FA SP. We could also pick-up a Peavy type deal without giving away the farm.

[old nurse]

Depending on how much stock you place on Fangraphs.com's valuation system, Correia has actually outperformed his first year of his contract. He is being paid $4.5M meanwhile he has been valued at $5.6M.

 

There is a definite possibility he under-performs the second year of his deal but, so far, it ain't all bad.

 

Fangraphs only uses the contracts of free agents signed this year to determine what is player value. Any players signed to an extension are not put into the value computations. Many large contracts are not performing well this year so your value goes up. Remember also I said the problem was he got a second year, not dollar per year.

[old nurse]

Right, but as you already acknowledged, I did not say top, I said middle. And if the middle tier pitchers won't come to Minnesota because they are not showing a stronger desire to win based on their commitment to the free agent market, well there is a clear solution for that.

 

I would be zero disappointed in Ryan right now if he had shown some guts and signed a pitcher with upside who ended up failing. Every indication is that Ryan thinks making a mistake on a decent sized free agent deal will be the end of the organization. It won't, and not even close. Just do it damn it. Once. Now. So what if you miss, it cannot possibly harm the club any more than the inaction has harmed it. At least most of us would applaud the effort.

 

The Twins are supposed to have scouts smart enough to recommend to not sign "upside" players that fail. Gauging upside is what they are paid to do. You may see upside in a player based on what they did in years past. The scouts don't see the player making those pitches enough anymore. Why sign them?

[Thegrin]

We are uselessly torturing ourselves if we think any top line pitcher is going to sign with the Twins. It won't happen unless the Twins are a winning team. It won't happen in a free market system because a better team will ALWAYS match a Twins offer on a good pitcher. It hasn't happened and it won't happen unless some future player wants to play here for sentimental reasons and gives the Twins a home town discount. I am sorry this is so, but it is easier to accept it. To get a top line pitcher we will have to get lucky or lose one of our precious prospects in a trade.

[nicksaviking]

The Twins are supposed to have scouts smart enough to recommend to not sign "upside" players that fail. Gauging upside is what they are paid to do. You may see upside in a player based on what they did in years past. The scouts don't see the player making those pitches enough anymore. Why sign them?

 

So are you saying the scouts saw upside in Correia and Pelfrey, or they saw no upside in any free agents? Either way they were wrong. Time to hire a data team comparable to the rest of the league so free agent reliance isn't nearly 100% on the scouts.